最新3GFROM ANORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE

1、3g from a north american perspectivestuart jefferyvp of networkscommagine inc1072 seena avelos altos, ca 94024e-mail office +1 650.966.8199mobile +1 916.799.4500ssj 10/24/01/r32trends in wireless 02004006008001000120014001993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003cellular subsnet connecte

2、d pcsnet connected handsetsred herring & shosteckssj 10/24/01/r33outline us wireless history us versus european markets technology evolution emerging services 3g wireless unlicensed wireless user terminal path to global interworking ssj 10/24/01/r34bc (before cellular) single channel radio telep

3、hone high power transmitter on a high spot each user has own channel range of 50 miles trunked radio “trunking efficiency” by sharing channels more spectrum efficient cellular like trunked radio, share the channels low power= small coverage area low power = frequency reuse more expensive infrastruct

4、uressj 10/24/01/r35history (usa part 1)early days of cellular in us.1. att developed technology in 702. a lot of legal and technical in fighting regarding the frequencies and ownership3. fcc finally passed regulation in 82 establishing band and two licenses4. att was now broken up, so lec got one li

5、cense5. how to award second license?6. resolved by early 83 - two cellular bands issued shortly thereafterssj 10/24/01/r36history (usa part 2)by early 90s capacity starting to be a problem:1. analog - namps (low deviation voice) - 3 voice channels in 30 khz 2. digital - tdma (compressed digitized vo

6、ice) - 3 voice channels in 30 khz 3. cdma developed as “better” digital 4. cdma endorsed by “b side” - very political5. call communications emerged as repurposed trunked radio; later became nextelssj 10/24/01/r37history (usa part 3)late 90s pcs bands allocated to address capacity issues1. usa (and c

7、anada) allocated part of imt-2000 (3g band) to north american pcs2. a and b band auctions went smooth3. pioneer preference licensing process had big problems4. c band “designated entity” auctions had serious problems5. technology for pcs is “upbanded cellular” plus gsm-1900 (no amps)ssj 10/24/01/r38

8、europe consolidated on gsm1. incompatible networks emerged2. gsm - selected as single standard3. dect - enhanced cordless telephonessj 10/24/01/r39meanwhile in . japan similar to europe multitude of standards ntt in 1979 jtacs in 1988 pdc in 1993 pacific digital cellular - challenge gsm in asia narr

9、ow band digital, similar to na-tdma packet data mode, similar cdpd reality - pdc is very big in japan, but no traction elsewhere but i mode is extremely popular and low data rate docomo - got it right and the rest of the world is watching ssj 10/24/01/r310wireless datassj 10/24/01/r311key data netwo

10、rks in usvoicepagerskypagepocketnetssj 10/24/01/r312us versus european marketsssj 10/24/01/r313auctions -started in us by fcc how licenses are issued1 - applications2 - “comparative hearings” / “beauty contests”3 - lotteries4 - auctions auctions issues - the user ultimately has to pay - it is a tax

11、a and b bands for pcs $13.00 per pop ($0.43/mhz/pop) c band for pcs $33.81 per pop ($1.13/mhz/pop) f band reauction for nyc $114.00 per pop ($11.40/ mhz/pop)ssj 10/24/01/r314 $-$0.50$1.00$1.50$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00finland (bc)spain (bc)usa band a and bsweden (bc)us c (de)portugal (bc)no

12、rway (bc)netherlandsfrance (bc)italy (spc)belgiumdenmarkunitd kingdomus c/f reauctionswitzerlandgermany$ (us) / mhz / popnormalized auction priceschanged payment terms french gov. is now revenue sharingssj 10/24/01/r315licenses fee is a taxdec-94oct-00aug-00jan-01pacbellitalygermanverizonus pcs 3g 3

13、g us pcs (calif.)(country) (country) (ny city)populartion (million)32.656.782.018.1license ($ million) $ 300 $ 4,000 $ 7,690 $ 1,911 $ / pop $ 9.20 $ 70.55 $ 93.78 $ 105.87 assuming 10% of population are subscribers $ 92.02 $ 705.47 $ 937.80 $ 1,058.73 $/ month (recover over 60 months) $ 1.53 $ 11.7

14、6 $ 15.63 $ 17.65 disadvantage (versus pacbell)1.07.710.211.5bandwidth (mhz)30202010bandwidth adjusted (versus pacbell)1.011.515.334.5ssj 10/24/01/r3163g costs - uk modeluk cost componentsauthur anderson,jp morgan0%5%10%15%20%25%30%3g licenseoperational cost3g network setuphandset subsidizationcusto

15、mer acquisitionfixed marketingcontent acquisitionproduct developmentssj 10/24/01/r317european mobile revenue forecast ($m)2000e2005e2010erevenue%revenue%revenue%voice$75,65795.3%$70,75758.0%$73,63047.2%sms$3,6894.6%$10,1228.3%$3,1752.0%email$00.0%$6,9575.7%$4,9233.2%info services/surfing$660.1%$11,4

16、609.4%$14,7709.5%advertising$00.0%$8840.7%$6,0153.9%transactions$00.0%$9,2287.6%$25,95316.6%business data$00.0%$7,1395.9%$5,9703.8%machine to machine$00.0%$4,2973.5%$8,3365.3%multi-media$00.0%$1,1570.9%$13,2238.5%total revenue$79,412100.0%$122,001100.0%$155,995100.0%source: authur andersonssj 10/24/

17、01/r318technical evolutionssj 10/24/01/r3phase 2edgeis-136ais-95ais-95bcdma2000 (1x)199819992000200120022g to 3g evolution roadmap source: cadencegprsumtsssj 10/24/01/r3203g band mapamericas:imt-2000 band : not availpcs band: edge, wcdma and cdma-2000europe:imt-2000 band: wcdmagsm 1800 band: edgeasi

18、a:imt-2000 band: wcdmagsm 1800 band: edgejapan:imt-2000 band: wcdmakorea:imt-2000 band: wcdma and cdma-2000ssj 10/24/01/r321itu flmts band at warc 92180018501900195020002050210021502200japankoreausaeuropeimt 2000 / uplinkimt 2000 / dnlinkgsm 1800 / dnlinkdectmss /uplkmss /dnlkimt 2000 / dnlinkimt 20

19、00 / dnlinkpcs / dnlinkimt 2000 / uplinkimt 2000 / uplinkis-95/ dnlinkpcs / dnlinkphsimt 2000 / tddssj 10/24/01/r32260080010001200140016001800200022002400260028003000usaeuropegsm -900cellularimt-2000 (3g)gsm -1800pcsnew 3 gus 3 g plantv channels60 - 69 - awaiting hdtvmmdsover $2 billion spent for wl

20、lmilitary uses cmd and control of gps, mil opsoct 17 - sprint announced will no longer add mmds customeroct 15, 2001 fcc announcedauction june 19 2002sept 11 little interest in taking spectrum away from militaryssj 10/24/01/r323services issuesssj 10/24/01/r324data - what are consumer needs? affordab

21、le terminal service “attractive” terminal human factors input / output battery life form factor responsiveness useful data (“walled garden”) quick response sorted response (time critical / location critical)ssj 10/24/01/r325assortment of terminalsreflex 2 way pager ( 9.6)voice pager ( 9.6)rim data t

22、erminal via ram data 8 kb/somnisky cdpd at 19.2ssj 10/24/01/r326applicationsvideo conferencingemail with attachmentsfile transfermobile intranet accessgames with limited graphicsaudio/videoclip downloadstill pictureweb surfingbankinginformationservicesvideo-gamesstreaming audio/video2g wireless netw

23、orks 2.5g wirelessnetworks3g wirelessnetworksgsmgprsumtscourtesy don gibson, philips, santa clara, casms/ e-mailssj 10/24/01/r327data services- middlewarewapi-modegena protocola systemstandardopen standard from wap forumpropriety to docomolanguagewml - hard to learnchtml - a variant on html, so many

24、 programmerstransporttypically circuit switched (today)packet, always onsecurityconcerns expressed (wap gap)no problems identifiedspeedslowfastaccesswalled garden approved and non approved sitesdisplays (phone issue)no color or graphicscolor with graphics preferred language should be xml compliantss

25、j 10/24/01/r328i mode terminals at gsm world congress, feb 01ssj 10/24/01/r329data services- business issues usefulness of information metcalfes law: value of network increase as the exponent of connected nodes: v kn corollary: value of a wireless network is inversely proportional to the number of i

26、ncompatible standards: v 1/s high speed data few will pay for high speed video (5 to 10 x voice call) many will pay for useful, responsive service- high speed allows for responsivenessssj 10/24/01/r330sms very popular, except in us “rule of thumb” at 30% pen usage explodes us penetration is about 35

27、% but we have 5 standard - 10% max on any one metcalfes law in reverse european environment calling party pays - no cost for incoming internet cost per minute sms is a way of making money go father postulation - sms would be explosive in north america if the internet was established as the common in

28、terfacessj 10/24/01/r331docomo investing $ 9.8 b in aws i mode is arriving in us i-mode in japan explosive growth useful with small bandwidth japans population maybe different gadget oriented wireline internet is expensive different use - games - jokes - micro things i- mode is not a “walled garden”

29、ssj 10/24/01/r332enhanced data services location technology - required by law to support e911 “cell site” location in 1999 “exact location in 2001 network and handset solutions consumer location services - examples enhanced information location based advertising asset tracking voice technology - add

30、resses small screen / hands off control voice controlled navigation customized content delivered by audio to customerssj 10/24/01/r3333 gssj 10/24/01/r3342g offered customers clear value smaller phone - in your pocket / purse longer battery life - stop worrying about it better mmi on the phone more

31、affordable service - $30 bucks per month maybe poor voice, but better coverage less dropped calls - worked betterssj 10/24/01/r335what is 3 g supposed to offer? original definition common world standard higher speed data 384 kp/s for full area coverage 2 mb/s for local area coverage isochronous serv

32、ices (voice / video) supported data packet, “always on” service supported reality family of standards at least two bands, thanks to north americassj 10/24/01/r336reasons for 3g business drivers to move forward need for more voice spectrum in some regions of the world hope that data will become a maj

33、or new source of revenue technology push 3 g data business case is unclear in some markets, might be competitively priced to wireline, but not in us 3 g needs a data killer application, as voice revenue will drop market must find “l(fā)ow payload” services with high utility tie in with location and voic

34、e technology carriers must aggressively price the service - “l(fā)earning curve” thus 3 g data business can be proven by 2.5 g data businessssj 10/24/01/r337but someone has to pay and people pay for service, not technology1. userenterprise will pay for “real” productivity improvementcellular business ca

35、se was proven in by business accountsdata has been successful with rim (e-mail reader) highly integrated with officeconsumer will pay for entertainmentdocomo ring tones, cartoon, porn$5 to 15 per month2. advertisernot been proven yetscreen not conducive to adslocation based content pull customers to

36、 “your store”3. m-commercevisa / master charge model micro payments too expensivecellular set up for micro payments but consumer protection big issuessj 10/24/01/r338“all bits are not created equal”value of informationevent related informationvalue of informationtimeevent related informationvalue of

37、 informationevent related informationvalue of informationlocationlocation related informationbilling systems: life blood of carrier very complex part of operation need to accommodate this phenomenassj 10/24/01/r339number of subscribers in billionsthe expected shift to 3gssj 10/24/01/r340operators 2.

38、5g / 3g networks will not meet expectations2g2.5g3gexpected data rate kbps9-14100-300 384-2000actual data rate kbps9-1410-3030-150ssj 10/24/01/r341general “pull back” in 3gvodafone data rates will not be “up to expectations”bt 3g / dual mode phones not availablefrance cut the cost of license to help

39、 business modelexceptions japan docomo pressing ahead hutchison 3g in uk pressing ahead (soft porn?)sleeper could be 1xrtt cdma operators in korea, china and us pressing aheadssj 10/24/01/r342maybe us is ahead because we were behind?facts 50% of total network cost is in hand unit dual mode (cdma and

40、 tdma) phones are very complex 3g cell sites have smaller coverage area than 2g 3g will initially cover city centers, hot spots subscriber will need 2g access to supplement 3g service (for full coverage) since can get voice on either, only reason for 3 g is data!gsm - (strong in europe and asia, med

41、ium in na and sa) gsm 2g is tdma gsm 3g is cdma (wb) do need dual mode phone for full coverage (or two phones)cdma (strong in us, korea, and china no presence in europe) cdma 2g is cdma cdma is 3g is 1xtrr which is also cdma do not need dual mode phone for full coveragessj 10/24/01/r343major threat

42、to 3g fromunlicensed wlan?ssj 10/24/01/r344unlicensed radioism (industrial scientific medical) bands 902-928 mhz, 2.4 ghz and 5.8 ghz“hot stuff” now 802.11b apple airport, etc bluetooth - $10 “does everything”“new stuff” coming 802.11a hiperlan/2ssj 10/24/01/r345802.11b (wi-fi)first for officenow fo

43、r homes all apples have built in antennae pcs now coming with 802.11 built inssj 10/24/01/r346public 802.11 networks taking off in selected areas.in the san francisco bay area, approximately 200 sites up now with 300 anticipated by end of yearwho are operators mobilestar deal with starbucks, america

44、n airlines, etc. airwave wayport in a lot of hotels guerrilla neighborhood operatorsssj 10/24/01/r347from airwave web sitessj 10/24/01/r348mobilestar approx 700 nationwide locations 500 starbucks airports american airlines $45 million vc funded 90 people on payroll 8000 customers $40/month not clear

45、 if all 8,000 were paying rates $30/ month local $60/ month full us $0.15 per minute pay as you gossj 10/24/01/r349enormous industry excitement“3g faces threat”ee times“the next big thing? try 802.11b”cnet“3g killers on the prowl”wall street journalssj 10/24/01/r350mobilestarapprox 700 nationwide lo

46、cations 500 starbucks airports american airlines$45 million vc funded 90 people on payroll 8000 customers $40/month not clear if all 8,000 were payingrates$30/ month local$60/ month full us$0.15 per minute pay as you goshut down last week:expenses approx $ 15 million / yeareach “store” $200/ monthin

47、come approx 4 million / yearssj 10/24/01/r351market end-state: “patchwork blanket” coveragetype of hotspot2.5g networkmobile operatorlocal operatorwispssj 10/24/01/r352what about user devices?ssj 10/24/01/r353basic premiseproposal: widely (wildly?) successful wireless data products and services must

48、 hitch a ride on the wireless voice trainwhy: “voice” has the mass markets mindshare now, and for the foreseeable futureimplications: to bridge the gap, wireless devices must be great voice products first, then deliver compelling data servicesacknowledgement to david weilmuenster of handspring ssj 1

49、0/24/01/r354can pdas compete as voice products?voice quality and basic functionality is not the issueform factor is a challengebut, the user experience can clearly excel compared to traditional handsets speed dialing & list creation/maint. advanced functions: conf. calling, call waiting, call fo

50、rwarding, caller i.d., pim calling logs and usage tracking multi-tasking (e.g., checking calendar during conversation)ssj 10/24/01/r355what about those data services?size does matterlegibility & application presentationnavigation & ease of use (e.g., sms)input: handwriting and/or keyboardmem

51、oryprocessing power application development“standalone” applications are as valuable as wireless applicationspersonal information managementalmost anything else, from tracking golf scores to patient record management and pdas excel in this spacessj 10/24/01/r356its all about integration and balancen

52、okiarimpalm viipimvisorwebaccessmessagingvoice? ?ssj 10/24/01/r357and handspring delivers the treo familyphone, palm os organizer, browser & messagingtreo is a compact communicatorssj 10/24/01/r358docomo 3rd g (foma)ssj 10/24/01/r359summarywireless is inherently more expensive than wirelinelicen

53、seequipmentshared access mediaeurope and us have different telephone cost modes (flat rate versus usage based)europe (and the row) have a very different data cost models than the usus - internet access is very cheap ($20 to $40 for always on connections)therefore: what works in europe or asia may no

54、t translate to us2.5 g data must become economically viable for 3g to be economically successfulsomeone has to pay for all of this so. the “killer application” is a useful, affordable service coupled with a billing mechanismssj 10/24/01/r360questions ?ssj 10/24/01/r361world interworkingmaking it all

55、 work togetherssj 10/24/01/r362issuesus and european history us was first with wireless, but then europe leaped ahead radio frequency allocations were (and are) different different attitude toward market forces us - “l(fā)et the market decide” europe - mandate a single standardwho is hurt by lack of uni

56、versal standard? global traveler but this is really a small market everyone . standardization equals lower costs counter view competition equals lower cost standardization equals slower innovationssj 10/24/01/r363solutions to mitigate software defined radios network to network integration (nni) allo

57、w the gsm backbone and the cdma backbone to interconnect mobility wireless internet forum all ip core network radio agnostic core network address tremendous growth in wireless internet accessssj 10/24/01/r364iwgcore network optionswcdmatdd mode cdma2000edgeevolved gsm coreevolved is-41 coreip corera

58、ns(radio access networks)ssj 10/24/01/r365hutchison 3goffering a proven money makerssj 10/24/01/r366wireless lan informationthis has a good step by step tutorial on how to set something up. http:/ is a bay area organzitaion focused on 802.11 lans public wireless lans http:/ http:

59、/ (this is currently free access) http:/sites that have general information about 802.11 http:/ ssj 10/24/01/r367辡億銨燫凘鮚抱誡貹嫻郙逛礠慇蟬驥乼疫嬴恘狡玓第欏淞靉覻绱糜鎳繖咯崧喉韶暢旖褿溊霘窠嚝嚦荀妲鰷逹跅來軋媲炱曽祮煫烠儘匯匶橒嘛鶜夠褫焯鈪懎繪畢顫笳揠颵稱嬈枀筘竕緪鎽繞葧謪聽勓嫞韉鹖甕衕僛燁鐳紅煒歸鬼佻睪歶磔輙鐮淼擗慯藘鄏蓆摰巁蘉婈鑳絳廻聡聿坯箈垷蟱暚鎂迠齢舋磧夲炐欔肯梅莕硜輩

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