東北證券-策略專題報(bào)告：調(diào)整未完,“地?cái)偨?jīng)濟(jì)”利好消費(fèi)

1、2 / 191. “”.3 1.1. “”. 3 1.2. a . 6 1.2.1.6 1.2.2.a .6 2. .8 2.1. . 8 2.2. . 8 2.3. a . 10 2.4. a . 10 3. . 11 3.1. . 11 3.1.1. .113.1.2. .123.2. . 13 3.2.1. .133.2.2. .143.3. . 16 3 / 191 wind 1 1. 1.1. 3.6 10 2 -4 6% 4 1 6.56.05.55.04.54.01.21.00.80.60.40.20.0-0.2-0.4-0.6:2007 3 2017 2007 2017 199

2、7 5 2002 8 2007 3 2017 9 wind 9 9 20/0320/0119/1119/0919/0719/0519/0319/0118/1118/0918/0718/0518/0318/014 / 192007 2017 2007 2006 2 wind 2007 3 2017 9 2007 3 2017 3 wind 9 5 / 19300 2007 3 2017 2007 3 2017 300 4 wind 5 6 wind wind 300 9 9 6 / 1929 7 8 2019 a2018 2018 a1.2. 1.2.1. 1400001200001000008

3、000060000400002000001 400003500030000250000200001500010000-1 50000700060005000400030002000100001.2.2. 2019 2019 2018-2019 aa- aaa 100bp 2019 2019 wind wind 33 5 15 5 23 4 30 a :(:): : :a aa2018 2018 05/1805/1105/0404/2704/2004/1304/0603/3003/2303/1603/0903/0202/2402/1702/1002/0301/2701/2005/1805/110

4、5/0404/2704/2004/1304/0603/3003/2303/1603/0903/0202/2402/1702/1002/0301/2701/207 / 19:1 bp:3 bp2019/5/9 2019/5/14 2000 2805 10% 3000 25% 25% -1.48 -0.69 2.14 0.08 -2.28 0.24 3000 15% 2020/4/30 0.63 1.74 -aa2 2018 % 2018/3/22 -0.53 -3.67 -6.38 2018/4/16 -1.53 -2.88 0.33 2018/6/15 500 25% -0.73 -5.07

5、-7.00 2018/7/11 2000 10%-1.76 -1.43 -1.14 2018/8/2 2000 10%-2.00 -1.07 -3.52 25% 10080604020080%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%-30%aa-aaa aaa-aaaa2019 aa2019 2019 wind wind 10 a 2018 9 2018 wind 2020/5/23 33 1.01 1.37 -2020/5/15 0.24 -1.97 -2019/8/24 2500 30% -1.17 -0.

6、39 2.75 10% 2019/8/6 -1.56 -0.86 5.83 2019/8/1 9 1 3000 -0.81 -4.70 -1.58 20/0320/0119/1119/0919/0719/0519/0319/0118/1118/0918/0718/0518/0318/0117/1117/0917/0717/0517/0317/0116/1116/0916/0716/0516/03200420011910190719041901181018071804180117101707170417018 / 19 max 75.9% 66.4% min 81.3% 84.8% 48.4%

7、95.6% 38.8% 90.4% 98.8% 99.8% 27.7% 14 5 26 -28 70 120 60 100 5080 4060 3040 20 10 20 002. 2.1. 2.5%100500-50-100-150250200150100500-50-100-150:6 : : : : : :2.2. dr007 1.6% wind wind wind wind 12 11 5 10% 13 908070605040302010020%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%r007 21bp 20/0520/0420/0320/0220/0119/12225 1

8、9/1119/10100 19/09cac40 19/0819/07dax 19/0619/05500 19/0419/0319/0219/0120/0520/0420/0420/0320/0220/0220/0119/1219/1219/1119/1019/1019/0919/0819/0719/0719/0619/0519/0519/0419/0319/0319/02225 100 cac40 dax 500 9 / 1915 16 17 18 wind wind aa- aaa 4.04 3.53.03 2.52.02 1.51.01r001- r007- dr001 dr007:1 :

9、1020000150001000050000-5000-10000100806040200: aa-aaa :1 bp: aa-aaa :3 bp:152.4 5 23 a 25% 3 10 924 19 20 wind wind wind wind 3700 17.5% 2005200320011911190919071905190319011811180918071805180318012004200119101907190419011810180718041801171017071704170120042003200220011912191119101909190819071906190

10、51904190320042002191219101908190610 / 193 4 2.3. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 000001.sh 1.80 -0.84 -3.16 2.19 -0.21 7.25 7.42 0.18 -0.85 3.79 399001.sz 1.51 -1.59 -3.23 2.68 -3.03 7.09 11.01 0.21 -2.36 4.90 000300.sh 300 1.88 -1.24 -3.48 3.09 -1.29 7.60 7.66 -0.19 -1.30 3.66 000

11、016.sh 50 1.58 -0.63 -3.01 3.43 -0.83 7.43 5.92 -0.69 -0.16 2.43 399005.sz 2.98 -0.59 -3.95 3.17 -1.75 7.09 10.77 -0.08 -2.18 4.17 399006.sz -2.83 -5.12 3.29 1.31 6.99 15.10 -0.48 -1.31 2.65 000903.sh 100 1.57 -1.00 -3.26 3.18 -1.51 7.40 6.11 -0.14 -1.05 3.10 000852.sh 1000 4.23 -0.32 -3.62 3.01 1.5

12、1 8.75 13.29 0.13 -1.03 5.72 881001.wi a2.25 -0.81 -3.14 3.13 -0.15 8.54 11.21 0.18 -1.19 4.79 wind 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 000001.sh 5.07 3.71 -3.93 -3.71 6.65 21.09 9.68 0.21 -4.02 6.26 399001.sz 3.19 1.12 -3.68 -2.25 5.12 16.50 15.04 -0.11 -4.06 6.75 000300.sh 300 5.28 3

13、.27 -3.75 -3.20 7.40 21.09 8.53 0.86 -4.96 7.49 000016.sh 50 4.05 6.88 -1.99 -4.33 10.33 22.36 5.22 0.03 -5.05 7.17 399005.sz 11.29 -3.68 -6.42 -0.37 0.79 20.31 14.65 -0.25 -4.45 3.99 399006.sz -7.73 -9.27 1.59 -2.53 18.01 20.13 -3.60 -0.91 1.01 000903.sh 100 3.56 4.84 -2.50 -3.83 8.79 22.06 5.85 0.

14、82 -5.70 8.14 000852.sh 1000 11.97 0.23 -6.41 -1.22 2.03 23.42 20.24 -2.75 -1.66 6.38 881001.wi a6.39 2.61 -4.19 -2.50 5.22 24.31 15.96 -0.55 -3.29 7.24 wind 2.4.aaaaa a11 / 19wind 100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%6 50% 3. 3.1. 3.1.1. pe(ttm) pe pe 10.75 pe(ttm) 59.10 33.02 pe ttm 69.57 67.20 pb lf

15、6.77 pb 4.29 pb 4.0 5g 21 6 300 pe 11.96 pe 54.55 12 / 1922 300 / pe ttm 23 / pe ttm wind wind 24 pe ttm 2020/5/29 25 pb lf 2020/5/29 wind wind 3.1.2. 50 2005 17% 74% 89% 85% 83% 74% 2005 0 1% 5% 2005 pe ttm 13 / 19-3 -2.7 5 21 10546 26 pe ttm 27 pb lf wind wind 3.2. 3.2.1. 100% 141.4 28 29 wind wind 13.87 152.45 202.6 -13.83 14 / 19270.8 30 31 wind wind 32 wind 3.2.2. ipo 5/29 6 ipo 15 / 19-62 -20 92