國(guó)外某知名企業(yè)的廣告營(yíng)銷策劃

1、Where Did They Go?And When Will They Come Back?An Analysis of Recruitment Advertising Trends 1The objective of this presentation is threefold:n To present a macro view of the recruitment marketn To share an analytical approach to identifying local recruitment opportunitiesn To discuss actions local

2、newspapers should take to capitalize on opportunities mid- and longer-termNote that these findings integrate work done for the NAA Horizon Watching Initiative plus Kannons own client work.2Looking forward, total U.S. employment is expected to grow to about 168 million by 2010, up 15%.U.S. Employment

3、, 1989, 1999, 2000 and 2010e+15%Thousands3The shift from Goods Producing to Service Producing employment is expected to continue.Distribution of Change by Industry Group, 2000 - 2010eExpected Change in Employment, 2000 to 2010e: 22.2 Million JobsGoods Producing1%Service Producing99%4Professional and

4、 Service occupations are expected to represent 39% of employment in 2010.Distribution of U.S. Employment, 2010eBlue Collar24%Service19%Office & AdministrativeSupport24%Professional20%Management11%Sales10%Total Employment, 2010e: 167.7 Million Jobs5Total job openings will be highest in Service an

5、d Professional occupations.Total Job Openings Due to Growth And Replacements, 2000 to 2010eMillionsProfessional& RelatedOccupationsOffice &Admin.SupportSales &RelatedOccupationsMgt,Business &FinancialTrans. &MaterialMovingServiceProduction12.2ReplacementJob Gro

6、wth6Replacement needs will account for 62% of all expected available positions.Distribution of Job Openings by Occupational Group, 2000 to 2010eOrganicJobGrowth38%ReplacementRequirements62%Total Openings: 57.9 Million JobsOccupations WithAbove AverageReplacement RequirementsProduction81%Office &

7、 Admin. Support72%Sales72%Installation66%7Twelve occupations - two of which are fast growing - will account for almost 60% of openings.nFood Preparation/ServicesnEducation, Training, LibrarynManagementnFinancial, Information ClerksnHealth Care Practitioners/TechnicalnOffice SupportnComputer/Mathemat

8、icalnMaterial MovingnConstruction TradesnRetail SalesnPersonal CarenCashiersLargest Number of New/Replacement Jobs(2.0 Million+)59% of Job Openings8The jobs with the highest organic growth rates are Professional in nature.nComputer/MathematicalnHealth Care SupportnCommunity/Social ServicesnAdvertisi

9、ng SalesnProtectivenHealth Care Practitioners/TechnicalnModels, DemonstratorsnFinancial Service SalesnTelemarketingnPersonal CarenArts, Design, EntertainmentHighest Growth Rate: New Jobs(+20% Expected Growth)22% of Job Openings9Largest Number ofNew Jobs(2,600+)34% of New JobsnRetail SalespersonsnGen

10、eral Managers (Top Execs)nGeneral Office ClerksnCashiersnJanitors and Cleaners (not Maids)nComputer Support SpecialistsnLandscaping LaborersnLight Truck DriversnGuardsnSystems Analysts (EDP)nWaiters and WaitressesnReceptionists and InformationClerks Of course, this varies by market.Highest Growth Ra

11、te:New Jobs(+37% Expected Growth)12% of New JobsnComputer Support SpecialistsnComputer EngineersnSystems Analysts (EDP)nAmusement AttendantsnMedical ScientistsnBiological ScientistsnParalegal PersonnelnReligious Activities DirectorsnParking Lot AttendantsnEngineering, Math, and NaturalScience Manage

12、rsnBusiness Service Sales AgentsnDatabase AdministratorsLocal Market Data10The majority of all expected job openings are for occupations that require less than a B.A. Job Openings by Educational or Training, 2000 2010eB.A. orHigher21%Less than a B.A.79%Total Job Openings = 45.7MAssociatesDegree6%Voc

13、ational Award6%Related WorkExperience7%Moderate/Long-Term OJT27%Short-TermOJT54%Total Job Openings = 57.9M11 and typically pay less.Median Annual Incomes byEducational or Training Requirement, 2000AnnualMedian Salary12Nationally, almost 60% of workers are employed by companies with under 500 employe

14、es.Distribution of FirmsLess than 10 10 to 99100 to 499 500+ Employees58%Distribution of Workers 13Again, this varies by market.Less than 10 10 to 99100 to 499 500+ Employees58%81%Distribution of Workers by Firm Size, 1999Local Market Data14Recruitment Baseline:Employment Market Key Takeawaysn Newsp

15、apers need to develop products, services, and channels to reach:oSmaller advertisersoLower-end jobsn Growth areas should be targeted:oComputer and Mathematical occupationsoHealthcare Practitioners and Technical occupationsn Market level analyses need to be done to identify local opportunities15The p

16、roportion of the labor force 45 years and older has grown, and the trend is expected to continue.Distribution of Civilian Labor Force by Age, 1980 to 2010e16 to 1935 to 4445 to 5455 to 6465 and older20 to 2425 to 34% ofTotal30%39%106.9140.9157.7Labor Force(millions)3%2%3%16Labor Force(millions)The p

17、roportion of females in the labor force is also increasing, reaching 47% in 2000.Distribution of Civilian Labor Force by Gender, 1980 to 2010eMaleFemale106.9140.9157.7% ofTotal17About two-thirds of women with children under 18 are working - up from about half twenty years ago.Labor Force Participati

18、on by WomanWith Children Under 18, 1980 to 2000Full-Time WorkersPart-Time WorkersDo Not Work% ofWomen32.736.1Female Labor Force w/Children Under 18 (millions)52%66%18The civilian labor force has become and continues to grow more racially and culturally diverse.Distribution of Civilian Labor Force by

19、 Race, 1980 to 2010eWhiteBlackHispanicAsian/Other31%18%106.9140.8157.7Labor Force(millions)% ofTotal19The growth in the working population may not be enough to meet the expected demand for workers.U.S. Working Population vs. Employment, 2000 to 2010eMillions of Workers+21.3 Million New WorkersMillio

20、ns of WorkersEmploymentWorking Population+22.2 Million New Jobs20Immigration is a key factor in meeting employment demand.Number of Immigrants to the U.S., 1970 to 2000 MillionsCAGR: 4%21About half of the immigrants to the U.S. in 2000 came from Latin America.Immigration Breakdown by Region of Origi

21、n, 2000Total Immigrants, 2000: 28.4 Million22In addition to immigration, the U.S. has continued to “borrow” skilled workers from around the world.H1-B Visa Cap, 1997 to 2001Annual# of Visas23H1-B workers are highly educated and technical; about two-thirds are Asian.Profile of H1-B Workers, 2000Count

22、ryof Birth% ofTotalIndiaChinaCanadaPhilippinesU.K.PakistanKoreaTaiwanJapanOtherTotal43%10%4%3%3%2%2%2%2%29%100%Occupation% of TotalComputer RelatedArchitectural/EngineeringEducation/Medicine/HealthAdministrative SpecialtyOtherTotal54%13%10%8%15%100%Education% of TotalBelow Four-Year DegreeBachelors

23、DegreeMasters/Professional DegreeDoctorate DegreeTotal3%56%33%8%100%24Future labor demands may be bolstered by nearly half of todays workers, who expect to work past 65.Percentage of Workers Expecting to Retire Beyond Age 65, 1991 vs. 2001% ofWorkers25Only 26% of 2001 retirees were employed, but 63%

24、 of todays workers expect to work past retirement.Worker Expectation about EmploymentRetirees by Labor Status, 2001Workers Employment Expectation, 2001Employed26%Unemployed74%ExpectEmployment63%Do Not ExpectEmployment37%26Recruitment Baseline:Job Seekers Key Takeawaysn By 2010, about one-third of th

25、e working population will be African-American, Hispanic, and Asian. This is an increase in proportion from only 18% in 1980.n The expected growth in the labor force will not be enough to meet future employment demand.n As a result, other countries will continue to be a key source of talent, both per

26、manent and temporary. The supply gap will also be mitigated by a working population that is expecting to retire at a later age due to financial, personal and health considerations.27To identify opportunities, we urge you to look at the local level through fresh eyes.28One approach is to compare the

27、newspapers performance to the market.Determine the change in jobs in the local market over a given time period.Step 1Measure the newspapers recruitment advertising performance over the same time period.Step 2Compare data on the employment market with newspaper metrics to uncover key opportunities.St

28、ep 329Local market data can be obtained from several sources.n Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)n State Employment Security Commissionn Bureau of Commerce30Employment data from local government sources are available by detailed occupations.Occupation199519961997199819992000ManagementChief Executives2

29、002302502505,520250General Managers26,01027,87528,35029,28019,21035,030Advertising Managers4,6604,4604,8905,0401,2906,260Financial Managers7,5905,8806,0506,1205,7507,070HR Managers1,8301,8251,9001,9301,7302,350Production Managers1,7901,6451,6201,6501,6701,810Purchasing Managers2,0701,6001,5601,5901,

30、2001,830Local Employment Estimates, Management, 1995 2000 Illustrative31Once data are obtained, the employment index of each occupation can be calculated.Employment Index,Healthcare Support Jobs Healthcare Support Occupations,Market Level, 1996 to 2000IndexActual DataMarket Level32Some newspapers ha

31、ve systems that capture revenue, ad count, and lineage by occupation.n Such data, however, needs to map to local occupation classifications. n Classifications such as “General Employment” would need to be disaggregated into occupations.n Industry-level aggregations (e.g., “Hotel/Motel”) also need to

32、 be decomposed into occupations. 33In the absence of stored data, a physical audit of selected Sundays would be necessary.n Careful selection of Sundays must be observed to ensure unbiased representation. oAvoid special holidays or mega-employment sections to prevent skewing the data.n Ad count, lin

33、eage, and revenues, must be tagged by occupation as well as industry to be comparable with local market employment information. n The number of Sundays to be audited depends on the resources and time available to complete the process. 34Newspaper ad count indices by occupation can be calculated once

34、 measurements are taken.Ad Count Index,Healthcare Support Jobs Healthcare Support Occupations,Market Level, 1996 to 2000IndexActual DataMarket Level35Comparing the market and newspaper indices can yield to useful insights and some questions.Employment Index,Healthcare Support JobsAd Count Index,Heal

35、thcare Support Jobs Healthcare Support Occupations,Market Level, 1996 to 2000IndexActual DataMarket Level36Competition from non-online media has been an overlooked significant threat. Key Competitor FindingsnSuburban newspapers have a pricing advantage. nCertain vertical publications are particularl

36、y strong.nThe Employment Guide, targeted at the lower-end of the market, is an active competitor in the market. nOther freely distributed print competitors targeted at lower employment segments include the Help Wanted and Employees Wanted magazines. n The local free weekly publishes a separately-dis

37、tributed free employment magazine every other week.Actual DataMarket Level37Employment Index,Computer JobsAd Count Index,Computer JobsAd Count vs. Employment, Computer Occupations, Market Level, 1996 to 2000OnlineIntroPost-OnlineIndexActual DataMarket LevelCertain occupation segments, more than othe

38、rs, have been particularly affected by the Internet.38Five recruitment segments have been affected by online; three were consistently impacted. Impact on Selected Segments, Post-Online PeriodOccupation Segment Newspaper A Newspaper BnComputer OccupationsnArchitecture & Engineering nSales Occupat

39、ionsnManagement OccupationsnProfessional OccupationsnEstimated Revenue Impact -10% -20%Actual DataMarket Level39In summary, the following data are needed to conduct a robust analysis of recruitment:n Local market employment information by occupation and industryn Newspaper recruitment data on revenu

40、e, ad count, and lineage across occupations and industriesn In addition, key management input and other market information would be useful: oCompetitive intelligenceoRetail sales oChanges in population oEthnicity40Recruitment Strategic FrameworkWeakCompetitive PositionStrongHighLowSegmentAttractiven

41、essPrimaryTargetSecondary TargetSecondaryTargetTertiary TargetA strategic framework is needed to set recruitment priorities and guide resource allocation.41The vertical axis of the matrix is segment attractiveness. Each segment is evaluated on its attractiveness to a recruitment competitor, independ

42、ent of the newspaper. SegmentAttractivenessCompetitivePositionThe horizontal axis is competitive position. Each segment is evaluated based on the newspapers current ability to meet the segments needs relative to competition. Each occupation or segment can be plotted within the matrix based on the fo

43、llowing guidelines.42Segment Attractiveness can be defined by the several criteria.Segment Attractiveness CriteriaThe extent to which capturing the segment represents a meaningful amount of advertising revenuesThe extent to which revenue growth can be achieved without expanding share of marketThe de

44、gree of churn or level of replacement requirement as a driver of revenue growthThe degree to which a segment is able to withstand revenue pressures in a recessionary environmentExplanationCriteriaSizeEmploymentGrowthEmploymentChurnRecessionaryResilience43The newspapers Competitive Position within an

45、 occupation is also a function of several criteria.Competitive Position CriteriaCriteriaExplanationRevenueSizeRevenueGrowthPerformancevs. MarketRecessionaryResilienceAverage revenue contribution by segment to the newspaperThe newspapers ability to maintain and grow revenues by segment over timeThe n

46、ewspapers performance across segments relative to opportunities in the marketThe degree to which the newspapers recruitment revenues was affected by the recession in 200144To plot a segment into the matrix, relative rating scores for each criterion need to be applied Dimension Rating ScaleLowestRati

47、ngAverageRatingHighestRating15945 and weighted based on importance. Prioritization Criterion WeightsSegment AttractivenessCompetitive Position CriterionEmployment SizeEmployment GrowthEmployment ChurnRecessionary Resilience Weight40%40%15% 5% CriterionRevenue SizeRevenue GrowthPerformancevs. MarketR

48、ecessionary ResilienceWeight35%25%35% 5%46Strategy must focus on high-priority segments in light of attractiveness and competitive position. Occupation Segment PrioritizationSales ProductionManagementTransportation and Material MovingBusiness and FinancialHealthcare and TechnicalOffice and Administr

49、ative Support Building and Grounds Cleaning/MaintenanceEducation, Training, and LibraryCommunity and Social ServicesLife, Physical, and Social SciencesFood PreparationConstruction and ExtractionPersonal CareHealthcare SupportFarming, Fishing, and ForestryArts, Design, Sports, Entertainmentand MediaC

50、omputer and MathematicalInstallation, Maintenance, & Repair Protective ServiceArchitecture and EngineeringSecondary TargetPrimary TargetLow PriorityTertiary TargetWeakStrongCompetitive PositionHighLowSegment AttractivenessLocal Market Data471Six recruitment requirements for newspapers emerged fr

51、om the Horizon Watching work. First Requirement:Segment and Prioritize the Job Seeker MarketnOffer products and services that address specific needs and behaviors of top priority segments.nDevelop targeted offerings such as vertical publications, niche employment books, special employment sections,

52、zoned inserts, or in-language products.48Investment to build a recruitment web site that is job seeker-oriented.Second Requirement:Invest to Build a Job Seeker Oriented Web SitenBenchmark versus top recruitment web sites and develop plans to address gaps in performance.nCreate online user experience

53、s based on target job seekers know-how and comfort in using the technology. Develop content that is most relevant and useful to target segments and integrate tools to gather job seeker information.nEnhance web site functionality to enable employers recruitment effectiveness (e.g., rsum databases) an

54、d attract additional advertising revenues.249Focus on owning local listings and the multiple mechanisms needed to deliver them.Third Requirement:Own Local Recruitment Listings and Multiple Mechanisms to Deliver ThemnPartner with local media such as radio and TV to provide advertisers with multiple c

55、hannels to reach job seekers. nLeverage partnerships with other media through cross-promotion efforts, content sharing, cross-platform selling, or single ordering/ buying of ads. nProvide job seekers with multiple touch points to respond to job opportunities via telephone, fax, or local community events.350Development of employer-focused sales and marketing strategies.Fourth Requirement:Develop Employe