昆明理工大學(xué)計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)案例分析_課程報告

1、芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆

2、肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀

3、節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄

4、膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁

5、羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅

6、膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀

7、聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖

8、節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈

9、膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂

10、羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇

11、膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄

12、肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈

13、芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂

14、肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆

15、羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁

16、腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅

17、肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂

18、芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆

19、肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀

20、羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊

21、膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿

22、羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃

23、芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀

24、肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄

25、羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿

26、膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃

27、羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇

28、芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁

29、肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅膂莃薈袆肈莂蟻肁羄蒁螃襖節(jié)蒀蒃蚇膈葿薅袂肄蒈螇蚅肀蕆蕆羀羆蕆蕿螃芅蒆蟻罿膁蒅螄螁肇薄蒃羇羃薃薆螀節(jié)薂蚈羅膈薁袀螈膄薁薀肄肀膇螞袆羆膆螅肂芄膅蒄裊膀膄薇肀肆芄蠆袃羂芃螁蚆

30、莁節(jié)薁袁芇芁蚃螄膃芀螅羀聿艿蒅螂羅羋薇羈芃莈蝕螁腿莇螂羆肅莆蒂蝿羈蒞蚄羄羇莄螆袇芆莃蒆肅 中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響因素實證分析一、研究對象經(jīng)濟(jì)增長問題既受各國政府和居民的關(guān)注,也是經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)理論研究的一個重要方面。在19782008年的31中,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)年均增長率高達(dá)9.6%,綜合國力大大增強,居民收入水平與生活水平不斷提高,居民的消費需求的數(shù)量和質(zhì)量有了很大的提高。但是,我國目前仍然面臨消費需求不足問題。因此,研究消費需求對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響,并對我國消費需求對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的影響程度進(jìn)行實證分析，可以更好的理解消費對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的作用。二、數(shù)據(jù)收集與模型的建立（一）數(shù)據(jù)收集表2.1 中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長影響因素模型時間序

31、列表年份國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（y）年末從業(yè)人員數(shù)（x1）全社會固定資產(chǎn)投資總額(x2)居民消費價格指數(shù)（上年=100）(x3)19804545.642361910.9107.519814891.643725961102.519825323.4452951230.410219835962.7464361430.110219847208.1481971832.9102.719859016498732543.2109.3198610275.2512823120.6106.5198712058.6527833791.7107.3198815042.8543344753.8118.8198916992.3553

32、294410.4118199018667.8647494517103.1199121781.5654915594.5103.4199226923.5661528080.1106.4199335333.96680813072.3114.7199448197.96745517042.1124.1199560793.76806520019.3117.1199671176.66895022913.5108.31997789736982024941.1102.8199884402.37063728406.299.2199989677798.6200099214.67208532

33、917.7100.42001109655.27302537213.5100.72002120332.77374043499.999.22003135822.87443255566.6101.22004159878.37520070477.4103.92005184937.47582588773.6101.82006216314.476400109998.2101.52007265810.376990137323.9104.82008314045.477480172828.4105.9200934090377995224598.899.3（二）模型設(shè)計 采用的模型如下：y= 1+2x1+3x2+

34、4x3+ui 我們通過對該模型的回歸分析，得出各個變量與我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的變動關(guān)系。三、模型估計和檢驗（一）模型初始估計表3.1 模型初始估計結(jié)果Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/27/12 Time: 00:01Sample: 1980 2009Included observations: 30CoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-16197.4741510.11-0.3902050.6996X11.6839720.2560656.5763360.0000X21.4

35、204450.05488625.879790.0000X3-580.7369355.4395-1.6338560.1143R-squared0.985665    Mean dependent var85805.26Adjusted R-squared0.984011    S.D. dependent var95097.07S.E. of regression12024.95    Akaike info criterion21.75092Sum squared resid

36、3.76E+09    Schwarz criterion21.93775Log likelihood-322.2638    Hannan-Quinn criter.21.81069F-statistic595.9008    Durbin-Watson stat0.968679Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由上表可以看出，R2=0.985665，接近于1。F=595.9008 說明擬合程度很好。進(jìn)行t檢驗：t(28)=2.048對于參數(shù)c假設(shè): H0:

37、 c(1)=0. 對立假設(shè):H1: c(1)0對于參數(shù)x1假設(shè): H0: c(2)=0. 對立假設(shè):H1: c(2)0對于參數(shù)x2假設(shè): H0: c(3)=0. 對立假設(shè):H1: c(3)0對于c,t=0.390205<t(n-2)=t(28)=2.048因此拒絕H0: c0,接受對立假設(shè):H1: c=0對于x1,t=6.576336t(n-2)=t(28)=2.048 因此拒絕H0: x1=0,接受對立假設(shè): H1: x10對于x2,t=25.87979t(n-2)=t(28)=2.048 因此拒絕H0: x2=0,接受對立假設(shè): H1: x20對于x3,t=1.633856<t

38、(n-2)=t(28)=2.048 因此拒絕H0: x20,接受對立假設(shè): H1: x2=0由此可知，x3沒有經(jīng)過t檢驗。（二）多重共線性檢驗表3.2 相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣X1X2X3X11.000000 0.665094-0.219318X2 0.665094 1.000000-0.291137X3-0.219318-0.291137 1.000000根據(jù)多重共線性檢驗，解釋變量之間存在著線性相關(guān)。通過采用剔除變量法，多重共線性的修正結(jié)果如下：剔除X3。.表3.3 修正多重共線性后的模型Dependent Variable: YMethod: Least SquaresDate: 06/28/12

39、Time: 23:17Sample: 1980 2009Included observations: 30CoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C-79282.7915704.05-5.0485550.0000X11.6990130.2636936.4431580.0000X21.4383250.05542225.952220.0000R-squared0.984193    Mean dependent var85805.26Adjusted R-squared0.983022 &#

40、160;  S.D. dependent var95097.07S.E. of regression12391.14    Akaike info criterion21.78199Sum squared resid4.15E+09    Schwarz criterion21.92211Log likelihood-323.7299    Hannan-Quinn criter.21.82682F-statistic840.5434  

41、;  Durbin-Watson stat0.689221Prob(F-statistic)0.000000由表可得，x1和x2的t檢驗值都很顯著。（3） 異方差檢驗ARCH檢驗：Heteroskedasticity Test: ARCHF-statistic5.690752    Prob. F(1,27)0.0243Obs*R-squared5.048272    Prob. Chi-Square(1)0.0247Test Equation:Dependent Variable: RESID

42、2Method: Least SquaresDate: 06/28/12 Time: 23:48Sample (adjusted): 1981 2009Included observations: 29 after adjustmentsCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C49385817560101980.8817290.3857RESID2(-1)0.8990980.3768972.3855300.0243R-squared0.174078    Mean dependent var1.

43、39E+08Adjusted R-squared0.143489    S.D. dependent var2.41E+08S.E. of regression2.23E+08    Akaike info criterion41.35408Sum squared resid1.35E+18    Schwarz criterion41.44838Log likelihood-597.6342    Hannan-Quinn crite

44、r.41.38362F-statistic5.690752    Durbin-Watson stat1.336249Prob(F-statistic)0.024334從上表可以得到數(shù)據(jù)：(n-p)R2=5.048272,查表得2（p）=5.9915, (n-p)R2=5.048272<2（p）=5.9915,則接受原假設(shè)，不存在異方差。（四）序列相關(guān)檢驗已知：DW=0.689221，查表得dL=1.270，dU=1.563。由此可知，存在相關(guān)性。修正如下：表3.5 修正序列相關(guān)后的模型Dependent Variable: YMethod: Le

45、ast SquaresDate: 06/07/11 Time: 17:00Sample(adjusted): 1981 2009Included observations: 29 after adjusting endpointsFailure to improve SSR after 18 iterationsVariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb. C21524.051.27E+091.70E-051.0000X10.6126941.0519580.5824320.5655X20.9995450.3097523.2269230.0035AR

46、(1)1.0000190.1111908.9937700.0000R-squared0.992728Mean dependent var88607.31Adjusted R-squared0.991855S.D. dependent var95511.65S.E. of regression8619.708Akaike info criterion21.08893Sum squared resid1.86E+09Schwarz criterion21.27752Log likelihood-301.7895F-statistic1137.613Durbin-Watson stat0.98926

47、3Prob(F-statistic)0.000000Inverted AR Roots 1.00Estimated AR process is nonstationary四、結(jié)論分析和政策建議（一）主要結(jié)論1、固定資產(chǎn)投資是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要原動力。經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展取決于投入資金的數(shù)量和資金的利用效率。固定資產(chǎn)投資是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的重要原動力，它對經(jīng)濟(jì)運行具有先導(dǎo)作用，并以其乘數(shù)效應(yīng)拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。2、勞動力對GDP有一定的促進(jìn)作用但對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率卻微不足道。這是因為我國勞動力結(jié)構(gòu)總量巨大、供給充足、流動性強, 對GDP 影響很大。但是勞動力的人力資本含量、高技術(shù)含量偏低,勞動力素質(zhì)結(jié)構(gòu)存在嚴(yán)重缺陷, 會直接

48、影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。3、消費需求對經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動作用消費需求是三大需求要素中所占份額最大、波動幅度最小的部分，是國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的重要支 柱和最主要的組成部分，同時也是最為明顯地反映經(jīng)濟(jì)自發(fā)增長態(tài)勢的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)。（二）政策建議就業(yè)是民生之本，有效促進(jìn)就業(yè)，保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長良好勢頭成為我國當(dāng)前乃至今后一段時期的重要課題。針對目前勞動力數(shù)量龐大且總體素質(zhì)不高的現(xiàn)狀，應(yīng)通過多種途徑，一方面加強就業(yè)培訓(xùn)的投入力度，提高勞動者就業(yè)及再就業(yè)能力，降低失業(yè)率；另一方面，加強各地區(qū)間人才交流及促進(jìn)勞動力自由流動，并通過合理技術(shù)壁壘方式，阻止外來流動人員的無序進(jìn)入。同時，鼓勵靈活就業(yè)，以減輕就業(yè)壓力。勞動力的人力資本含量、高技

49、術(shù)含量偏低,勞動力素質(zhì)結(jié)構(gòu)存在嚴(yán)重缺陷, 直接影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長。因此應(yīng)當(dāng)控制人口數(shù)量,優(yōu)化勞動力結(jié)構(gòu), 提升勞動力素質(zhì)。物質(zhì)資本對我國的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長也起到了一定的影響作用，應(yīng)加強對投資的科學(xué)管理，提高投資效率。農(nóng)民收入影響因素分析本文選取1986-2009年相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，應(yīng)用計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的方法，根據(jù)農(nóng)作物播種面積、農(nóng)產(chǎn)生產(chǎn)價格總指數(shù)、第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)占全社會就業(yè)人數(shù)的比重、農(nóng)村用電量和財政支出對農(nóng)業(yè)的投入等五因素對我國農(nóng)民收入的影響，建立多元線性回歸模型并檢驗，并對各因素的影響程度進(jìn)行分析。從計量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的學(xué)習(xí)中可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，影響農(nóng)民收入增長的因素主要有：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品價格和產(chǎn)量、農(nóng)作物播種面積、農(nóng)業(yè)從業(yè)人數(shù)和財政投

50、入等考慮到數(shù)據(jù)獲取的方便程度和模型的合理性，綜合選擇了一下指標(biāo)作為影響農(nóng)民純收入的因素：Y: 農(nóng)村居民純收入（元）；X2：農(nóng)作物播種面積（千公頃）；X3：農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的生產(chǎn)價格總指數(shù)（%）；X4：第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)占全社會就業(yè)人數(shù)的比重（%）；X5：農(nóng)村用電量（億千瓦時）；X6：財政對農(nóng)業(yè)的投入（億元）。三、模型所需數(shù)據(jù)年份 農(nóng)村居民家庭人均純收入（元）Y 農(nóng)作物總播種面積(千公頃)X2農(nóng)產(chǎn)品生產(chǎn)價格總指數(shù)X3（上年=100）第一產(chǎn)業(yè)就業(yè)人數(shù)占全社會就業(yè)人數(shù)的比重X4農(nóng)村用電量（億千瓦時）X5財政支出對農(nóng)業(yè)的投入（億元）X61986423.80 144204.00 106.40 60.9253.118

51、4.201987462.60 144957.00 112.00 60.0320.8195.701988544.90 144869.00 123.00 59.3508.9214.101989601.50 146554.00 115.00 60.1790.5265.901990686.30 148362.00 97.40 60.1844.5307.801991708.60 149586.00 98.00 59.7963.2347.601992784.00 149007.00 103.40 58.51106.9376.001993921.60 147741.00 113.40 56.41244.94

52、40.5019941221.00 148241.00 139.90 54.31473.9533.0019951577.70 149879.00 119.90 52.21655.7574.9019961926.10 152381.00 104.20 50.51812.7700.4019972090.10 153969.00 95.50 49.91980.1766.4019982162.00 155706.00 92.00 49.82042.21154.8019992210.30 156373.00 87.80 50.12173.41085.8020002253.40 156300.00 96.4

53、0 50.02421.31231.5020012366.40 155708.00 103.10 50.02610.81456.7020022475.60 154636.00 99.70 50.02993.41580.8020032622.20 152415.00 104.40 49.13432.91754.5020042936.40 153553.00 113.10 46.93933.02337.6020053254.90 155488.00 101.40 44.84375.72450.3020063587.00 152149.00 101.20 42.64895.83173.00200741

54、40.40 153464.00 118.50 40.85509.94318.3020084760.60 156266.00 114.10 39.65713.25955.5020095153.20 158639.00 97.60 38.16104.47253.10數(shù)據(jù)來源：2010年中國統(tǒng)計年鑒，2010年中國農(nóng)業(yè)統(tǒng)計年鑒 四、模型設(shè)定和參數(shù)估計樣本回歸模型設(shè)定為 ：1、對原始模型進(jìn)行回歸，其結(jié)果為：VariableCoefficientStd. Errort-StatisticProb.  C2457.8941993.0711.2332190.2334X20.0256750

55、.0092712.7694410.0126X3-2.1673741.788256-1.2120040.2412X4-93.1561410.81553-8.6131840.0000X50.1813360.0423184.2850450.0004X60.1850890.0215738.5796890.0000R-squared0.998004    Mean dependent var2077.942Adjusted R-squared0.997449    S.D. dependent var1376.930S.E. of regression69.54587    Akaike info criterion11.53417Sum squared