可再生能源發(fā)電下的電價調(diào)整

1、Adjustment of Tariffs電價調(diào)整Content內(nèi)容1. Background背景2. Degression for new plants新建電廠上網(wǎng)電價下降3. Adaptation of tariffs for existing plants對運行中的電廠進行電價調(diào)整4. Review of tariffs電價回顧2kWe) ces (2006)/k estment Pric InveBackground Learning Curve I 背景經(jīng)驗曲線IRenewable energy technologies usually features large cost red

2、uction potentials New plants are generating cheaper than existing plants可再生能源發(fā)電技術(shù)發(fā)展代表著成本下降趨勢新建電廠的成本低于已建成的電廠Historic experience curves for electricity supply technologies100000PV (1970-2006)Wind onshore (1990-2006)Wind offshore (1990-2007)Natural gas CC (1975-1997)PR = 0.7941970-200610000Pulverized c

3、oal (1942-1997)PR 1.0?2002 - ?1000PR 1.01975-1990PR 0.75PR = 0.85 (1990-2004)PR 0.9PR 1.13?2002 - ?1001990-1997PR = 0.92National vs.global learning!3Global installed capacity (GWe)0.00010.0010.010.1110100100010000 100000Source: Junginger et al. 2010Background Price Risk背景-價格風(fēng)險WindSolarHydroBiomass4F

4、eed-In tariffs provide long-term contracts over a long time price risks強制上網(wǎng)電價政策提供了長期的售電合同 價格風(fēng)險Typical Contract Term in Years for Renewable TariffsYears302520151050FranceGermanyGreeceOntarioPortugalSpainSource: Wind WorksUS-C Cent/kWhDegression rates for new power plants 電廠上網(wǎng)電價下降率FIT Degression with

5、1.6% p.a每年上網(wǎng)電價下降1.6%.Periodical Tariff Review1110.5109.598.58201020112012201320142015201620172018201920205VintageFITDegressionwith1.6%p.a.每年上網(wǎng)電價下降1.6%10.62010Vintage2011Vintage2012Vintage10.510.410.32102 20102 20112 20122 20132 20142 20152 20162 20172 20182 20192 20202 20212 20222 20232 20242 20252

6、20262 20272 20282 20292 20302 2031kWh US-Cent/kDegression rates for new power plants新建電廠上網(wǎng)電價下降率6Degression Factors for Wind Power7Source: www.res-legal.euDegression Factors for Wind Power風(fēng)電電價遞減系數(shù)國家奧地利捷克愛沙尼亞法國德國意大利8新增裝機容量的電價調(diào)整機制針對新建的風(fēng)電場，補貼額度遞減，電價減少的額度每年重新計算。新建風(fēng)電場的補貼額度每年由能源管理辦公室確定。電價不能少于前一年的5%。成文法中沒有電

7、價調(diào)整機制法令中針對各種技術(shù)有明確的規(guī)定，根據(jù)每年電價通脹制定了年度調(diào)整機制。從2008年起對新建風(fēng)電場開始實行電價每年遞減2%。風(fēng)電電價和補償遞減率：從2015年起，海上風(fēng)電每年遞減5.0%，其他裝機每年遞減1.0%。在2009年和2010年新建的風(fēng)電場收入減少2%或4%。 2010年之后新安裝的系統(tǒng)取決于新頒布的法令。如果新法令不能執(zhí)行，則減少的額度按照2010年的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)計算。Source: www.res-legal.euDegression Factors with national vs. global learning遞減系數(shù)：國內(nèi)與國際經(jīng)驗比較9Source: www.res-le

8、gal.euPVcapacityadditionsin20112011年新增光伏發(fā)電裝機DegressionFactor遞減系數(shù)6500MW21%/aTying Degression Factors to Capacity Deployment遞減系數(shù)與容量增長的關(guān)系Example Degression factor of PV in Germany in 2012以德國2012年光伏裝機為例 Creates uncertainty forinvestors對投資者而言增加了不確定性 Learning mostly driven byglobal markets經(jīng)驗效應(yīng)主要由國際市場推動 Li

9、mits the additional coststhrough a soft“ cap通過一個“軟”帽子限制了新增成本10Source: www.res-legal.euInflation adjustment for existing plants對于運行中的電廠進行通貨膨脹調(diào)整DomesticDomestic11Share of Inflation adjusted Tariff 電價通脹調(diào)整比率Renewable Tariff Adjustments for Inflationk可再生能源電價通脹調(diào)整120%100%80%60%40%20%0%GermanyFranceSpainGre

10、eceIrelandSouthAfricaOntarioRFPOntarioSOC &FITPrinceEdwardIsland12Source: Wind Works13Typical Recommendations for Tariff AdjustmentsFor the effectiveness of a Feed-in Tariff some provisions as well as periodicadjustments or revisions are necessary in order to anticipate changes ofeconomic or tec

11、hnologic framework conditions and adapt the tariff accordingly.The adjustments should apply to newly commissioned plants only.Inflation should be considered with a fixed tariff adaption rule.Learning Effects and Economies of Scale should be split up according to theiroccurrence and calculated corres

12、pondingly: on the domestic or on aninternational market.Unforeseeable circumstances can be taken into account by reviewing the tariffevery four years.電價調(diào)整的建議就保持上網(wǎng)電價的有效性而言，適時修改相關(guān)條款是非常必要的，這樣可以預(yù)測經(jīng)濟或技術(shù)環(huán)境的變化并根據(jù)具體情況適時調(diào)整電價。調(diào)整的范圍應(yīng)只針對新運行的電廠。固定電價機制需要考慮通脹因素。經(jīng)驗效應(yīng)和規(guī)模經(jīng)濟需要根據(jù)不同市場情況分別計算：國內(nèi)市場和國際市場。每四年評估電價政策時可以將不可預(yù)見的因

13、素考慮在內(nèi)14Reserve Slides1516Dominating support schemes for RE-Electricity in the EU歐洲實施的可再生能源電力支持政策和機制Minimum Price Standards/FIT最低電價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)/強制上網(wǎng)電價政策RPS/ Quota / TGC配額/綠色交易證書MPS andRPS/Quota / TGC最低電價標(biāo)準(zhǔn)/配額/綠色交易證書Tax incentives /Investment grants稅收激勵政策/投資贈款Other system其他政策A clear majority of EU countries uses feed- -in tariffs as main instrument6 countries have implemented a quota oblig