交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)的未來(lái)：新興生態(tài)系統(tǒng)中推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新的技術(shù)和趨勢(shì)

1、4The Transportation Industry Today: Poised for Incremental Change or Mass Disruption?10The Four Pillars of Mobility: The Future will be Shared, Multimodal, Electric and Autonomous.12Shared Transportation: Social and Capital Forces Shape a Shared Mobility Network.16Multimodal Transportation: A Seamle

2、ss Mobility Platform Emerges, Enabled by the New and the Old.20Electric Vehicles: A Promising Future but Challenges Remain.25Autonomous Vehicles: Amid a Global Wave of Funding, Will the Technology Live Up to the Hype?29Who Will Own the Mobility Platform of the Future? How Key Stakeholders Are Placin

3、g Their Bets Today to Position Themselves for the Future.ContentsFuture of Mobility4The Transportation Industry TodayFuture of Mobility5With $20.2 trillion in total assets, the global transportation industry is strongly tied to and influences many other major industries.Future of MobilityTransportat

4、ion Is Big BusinessSource: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysisIf the global transportation industry were a country, it would be the third-largest economy in the world by annual revenue, behind only the US and China.Total Invested Capital in Transportation, by Sector Trailing 10 Years6$5T$10T$

5、15T$20T$25TGross Domestic Product of the Four Largest Economies vs. Global Transportation RevenuesUSJapanChinaGermanyTransportation$02009 2010 20112012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Note: For US, China and Germany, 2018 GDP data includes forecasted figure for Q4 2018.$6.96TInfrastructure 3.3%Rail 3.8

6、%Road 3.9%Ride-Sharing 4.1%Commercial Transportation Marine4.2% 5.2%Logistics8.4%Energy Transportation 8.2%Autonomous Vehicles7.0%Air 8.5%Automotive 12.3%All Other Transportation31.1%Aging InfrastructureLost ProductivityPublic HealthEnvironmental ImpactIn 2017, the American Society of Civil Engineer

7、s gave the nations infrastructure an overall grade of D+ on its Infrastructure Report Card. Key infrastructure categories, including aviation, roads and transit, all received individual grades of D or lower.1Traffic is expensive. In the US alone, traffic congestion cost cities and drivers$305 billio

8、n in 2017. Census data shows that the American commute is getting longer, and the longest commutes in the nation are also the fastest- growing.2Nearly 40,000 people in the US die each year in transportation-related incidents. There are alsohidden costs, as air pollution and contaminants from transpo

9、rtation are indirectlylinked with respiratory and cardiovascularhealth issues.3Twenty-two percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are attributed to the transportation sector. Noise is known to have harmful effects on delicate ecosystems, and carbon monoxide emissions contribute to steadily decrea

10、sing air quality.4Future of MobilityThe World Is Ready for ChangeSource: (1) American Society of Civil Engineers, (2) INRIX Global Traffic Scorecard,(3) National Safety Council and (4) United States Environmental Protection AgencyOur current transportation networks have served us well for a long tim

11、e, but no one can deny that the system is strained. As the global population increases and cities become more densely populated, these problems will only get worse if nothing is done to address them. People around the world are ready for a new mobility paradigm one that fits their digital lifestyle

12、and alleviates the issues associated with our current transportation systems.7Future of MobilityThe Technology Has ArrivedSource: McKinsey & Company and SVB analysisA confluence of technological advancements in various fields has allowed solutions to be developed to solve common problems in the tran

13、sportation industry. From autonomous vehicles (AVs) and electric vehicles (EVs) to shared mobility platforms, new developments are happening every day.Aerospace5GInternet of Things (IoT)Semiconductors StorageEnergyElectricAutomationSatelliteMobileCloud3D PrintingGlobal Transportation RevolutionThe e

14、volution of the car is a perfect example of this greater technology-driven phenomenon. For example, 90 percent of innovations and new features in the automotive industry are driven by software and electronics, which account for 35 to 40 percent of an average cars production cost. Advances in drivetr

15、ain technology, lightweight materials, vehicle-to-vehicle communication and AI are the leading areas of innovation.8Adoption Will Take TimeTimeExpectationsPlateau will be reached in: 2 to 5 years5 to 10 yearsMore than 10 yearsHuman AugmentationNeuromorphic Hardware4D PrintingQuantum Computing5GVolum

16、etric DisplaysIoT Platform Smart RobotsSmart WorkspaceConnected HomeAVsNanotube ElectronicsDelivery UAVsAugmented RealityVirtual RealityInnovation TriggerPeak ExpectationsDisillusionmentSlope of EnlightenmentPlateau of ProductivityEVsUrban MobilityRide-Sharing PlatformsPassenger UAVsThe technology i

17、s here, but it will take time to mature. Some transportation technologies are already online and will get more advanced with time, such as ride-sharing platforms, personal electric vehicles (PEVs) and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).Source: Gartner and SVB analysisFuture of Mobility9265373415466419

18、500450400350300250200150100500$0$5B$10B$15B$20B$25B$30B$35B20142015201620172018Invested CapitalNumber of DealsFuture of MobilityA Global Funding WaveSource: S&P Capital IQ, PitchBook and SVB analysisBy Q4, 2018 venture capital (VC) investment in transportation startups neared $35B and is on track to

19、 double the amount of fundraising a year ago. The bulk of this capital was directed toward ride-sharing platforms such as Uber, Didi, Grab and Lyft, which have all raised $1B+ mega-rounds in 2018. At the same time, median pre-money valuations for transportation-related startups have almost doubled t

20、o $50M in 2018, up from $23M the year prior.10Venture Financing in Transportation Technology: 20142018AsiaNorth AmericaEuropeAfrica and Middle East South AmericaDeal Count$14M$19M$23M$50M$2M$3M$4M$6M$0$10M$20M$30M$40M$50M$60M2015201620172018Transportation Technology: Median Pre-Money Valuation and M

21、edian Deal Size 20152018Median Pre-Money ValuationMedian Deal SizeThe Four Pillars of MobilityFuture of Mobility11SharedMultimodalElectricAutonomyThe mobility platform of the future will build on the idea of distributed and shared mobility. Fewer people will own cars and instead will opt to use on-

22、demand services, enabling greater vehicle-use efficiency and less congestion.The future of mobility will consist of a highly flexible platform comprising various modes of transportation, each providing a unique solution. Every leg of a journey will come with an array of transportation options.The fi

23、rst electric car was built in 1832, and weve come a long way since then. Today, EVs have better power, speed, and safety compared with gas-powered cars, and theyre better for the environment.Although still in development, AV systems and hardware are heavily researched and have received more than $10

24、B of funding. Large automakers andtech giants are racing to build the first fully commercialized product.Future of MobilityWhat Are the Four Pillars of Mobility?*Data for all companies within each PitchBook vertical, for prior 10 years Source: PitchBook and SVB analysisThere are four key areas in wh

25、ich innovation in transportation is taking place. The future mobility paradigm will consist of autonomous systems and powerful electric drivetrains across a wide variety of modes, most of which will be seamlessly shared, connected, safe, convenient, personalized and on-demand.Global Venture Capital

26、Activity in Mobility*12Number of Startups:242Capital Invested:$58.0BNumber of Deals:574Investors:1,318Largest Deal:$7.3BNumber of Startups:72Capital Invested:$4.1BNumber of Deals:151Investors:362Largest Deal:$621MNumber of Startups:448Capital Invested:$24.7BNumber of Deals:986Investors:1,290Largest

27、Deal:$3.2BNumber of Startups:202Capital Invested:$10.0BNumber of Deals:398Investors:848Largest Deal:$1.0BShared TransportationFuture of Mobility13Future of MobilityThe Sharing Economy Hits MobilitySource: Goldman Sachs, Dalia Research and Statista18%49%28%35%13%18%13%17%7%5%7%7%0%10%20%30%40%50%Nort

28、h AmericaAsia-PacificLatin AmericaGlobalMillennialsGeneration XBaby Boomers60%40M30M20M10M0M51%46%38%35%33%30%30%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%China Mexico Russia Spain BrazilUS UK2006200920122015201820212024Percentage of People Who Use Ride-Sharing Services by Country14Shared transportation is being driven b

29、y demographic and social forces and technology. Some would argue that the biggest innovation in mobility was the invention of the smartphone. The success of ride-sharing companies like Uber, Lyft and Didi is a testament to that statement. Technology has also made sharing simple: from knowing when th

30、e next bus is coming, paying for small transactions effortlessly and being able to rent a car (or a seat) quickly, easily and cheaply.Willingness to Car-Share by Generation and RegionNumber of People Worldwide Who Share VehiclesThree and a half billion people around the globe live in cities and the

31、United Nations says that the world population will double by 2050.Growing urban density is resulting in more “megacities” those having a population greater than 10 million. Already, there are 47 megacities around the world, with 15 in China and 31 elsewhere in Asia.Future of MobilityIncreasing Urban

32、ization Will Push Transportation to Its LimitsSource: UN World Urbanization Data and Wikipedia0B1B2B3B4B5B6B195019701990201020302050Global Urban and Rural Population: 19502050Urban PopulationRural PopulationThe solution to the growing issues surrounding urban density is multipronged and includes a m

33、ix of affordable public transportation and efficient ride-sharing technology.With increasing urban density, the role of ride- sharing technology to reduce congestion has never been greater. While AVs garner a lot of attention in the media, issues with traffic will continue to increase globally if AV

34、s do not have robust ride-sharing capabilities.15Future of MobilitySoftBank Bets Big on Ride-SharingSoftBank Investments in Shared Transportation Companies: 20142018SoftBank: Breakdown of Shared Transportationby Investment by CountryThe Japanese conglomerate SoftBank has made waves by writing big ch

35、ecks. It has made multibillion-dollar investments in ride-sharing companies around the globe, including China, India and Brazil, while the number of companies is concentrated in the United States.16$10B$9B$8B$7B$6B$5B$4B$3B$2B$1B$020142015201620172018Other Ride-SharingSource: PitchBook and SVB analy

36、sisSoftBank: Breakdown of Shared Transportation by Company by CountryUSBrazil China Singapore India7%1%41%13%9%43%14%14%14%14%USBrazil China Singapore IndiaMultimodal TransportationFuture of Mobility17Future of MobilityWhat Is Multimodal Transportation?Source: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysis

37、1805 Miles515 Miles15+ Miles60% of trips in the USElectric bikes, scooters, skateboards25% of trips in the USRide-hailing15% of trips in the USCar-sharing, public transport, aerial transportThe concept of multimodal transportation is not new. In fact, much of freight transportation is “intermodal,”

38、meaning multiple modes of transportation are used without any handling of the freight itself when changing modes. The future of mobility will take this concept and apply it to human transportation.Micro-MobilityMedium DistanceLong DistanceFuture of MobilityMillennials and Mobility: A Generational Sh

39、iftThe millennial generation is the largest in US history and has unique mobility preferences. Millennials prefer the most practical transportation method for each trip. According to the study Millennials and Mobility, nearly 70 percent of millennials use multiple travel options several times per we

40、ek. Car-sharing, bike-sharing and public transportation are all on the rise when compared with car ownership. This is largely due to smartphone applications, which allow transit users to be increasingly spontaneous and flexible with their travel decisions.0M10M20M30M40M50M70M60M80M90M201620242032204

41、02048US Population by Generation: 2016205070%46%87%25%69%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%16-Year-Olds with Licenses19-Year-Olds with Licenses1983100%90%2014Millennials Who Use Multimodal Transportation Several Times per WeekTeen Drivers License Rates: 1983 vs. 2014Millennials Gen XBaby Boomers SilentSourc

42、e: Pew Research, American Public Transportation Association, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute and SVB analysis19Future of Mobility20The Fastest Unicorns Ride ScootersSource: CB Insights, PitchBook and SVB analysisFour unicorns have rapidly emerged in the micro-mobility space:

43、 Ofo and Hellobike, both China-based bike-sharing platforms, and Bird Rides and Lime, US-based scooter-sharing services. Electric scooter startup Bird is the fastest company to reach a valuation of more than $1B. One of many scooter startups currently sweeping the US, Bird was last valued at $2.3B a

44、fter closing $450M in Series C1 funding in June 2018.Speed of Growth Based on Months from Founding Date to Achieving Unicorn StatusMonths from Founding Date+6+12+18Electric Scooter or Bike-Sharing Company Other+24+30+36Note: Circle size represents company valuation at time of reaching unicorn status

45、. A unicorn is a privately held startup company valued at more than $1B.Electric VehiclesFuture of Mobility210.2M0.3M0.5M0.8M1.3M2.1M0.4M0.7M1.3M2.M3.3M5.4M3M2M1M0M6M5M4M201320142015201620172018Worldwide EV production has been steadily climbing. On the supply side, the cost of manufacturing EVs has

46、dropped significantly due to technological improvements in the manufacturing process.On the demand side, EV adoption is picking up as fuel costs and environmental concerns weigh on consumers. Furthermore, regulatory benchmarks are requiring automakers to manufacture more EVs. By 2025, 25 percent of

47、cars sold will require electric drivetrains, up from 5 percent today.Future of MobilityLess Is More for EVsSource: Goldman Sachs, EV Volumes, and SVB analysisOne catalyst driving innovation in EV technology is the fact that EVs have just one-third the amount of parts of conventional vehicles, which

48、enables EV startups to compete with larger auto manufacturers on pricing.Average Number of Parts: Conventional Vehicles vs. EVsNumber of EVs Produced and Sold Worldwide: 20132018EV ProductionEV SalesConventional VehiclesEVs35,00025,00015,0005,0005,00015,00025,00035,00022$23M$23M$13M$46M$70M0M$50M$10

49、0M$150M$200M$250M$300M$350M$400M20142015201620172018EV Activity Is SparkingFuture of MobilityEV Startups: Pre-Money Valuation Ranges, 25th to 75th Percentile, 20142018Investment activity in EV and battery technology has gained momentum in recent years as regulations require manufacturers to meet EV

50、production targets and consumers gradually adopt hybrid and electric vehicles. Median pre-money valuations have climbed significantly in the past two years as venture and corporate investors in the US and China place significant bets on market leaders.Source: PitchBook and SVB analysis23828693108118

51、20406080100120140$0$1B$2B$3B$4B$5B$6B$7B$8B$9B20142015201620172018Venture Investment in EV Startups: 20152018Other EV StartupsDeal CountMedian Valuation$711M$1.4B$38M$79M$192M$217M$767M$321M$2.3B$4.5B$6.4B$7B$6B$5B$4B$3B$2B$1B$660M$02015201620172018China Leads the Pack in EVsFuture of Mobility12.7M1

52、2.9M14.0M19.6M23.4M1.6M2.3M2.7M4.0M8.6MNew YorkLos AngelesChicagoHoustonPhiladelphiaShanghaiBeijingChengduTianjinGuangzhouGlobal Venture Investment in EVs: 20142018United States China0M5M10M2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Number of CarsRest of the World CarmakersEuropeWith about two-thir

53、ds of the 3 million EVs worldwide made and used in China, its clear that China is emerging as a global leader in EV development and adoption. This is no coincidence; the Chinese government has created a supportive regulatory environment and provided significant funding for EV startups.EV Sales Forec

54、ast by Global RegionPopulation of Five Largest Cities: China vs. USSource: The World Bank, Bloomberg, PitchBook and SVB analysis25M15M5M5M15M25M240M5M10M2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Number of CarsChinese Carmakers0M2M4M2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027Number of CarsUS Carma

55、kers7M3M6MAutonomous VehiclesFuture of Mobility25Future of MobilityThe Technology of AutonomySource: MIT Technology Review and SVB analysisThe technology behind autonomy is complex, consisting of a patchwork of sensors and systems that allow the vehicle to receive and react to information from its s

56、urroundings. Progress in AV technology is the result of years of engineering and computer science research bridging various fields, as well as robust funding from venture and corporate investors.Sensors and CamerasData about the vehicles surroundings are captured by onboard sensors and cameras, allo

57、wing precise movements in environments that are constantly changing.Machine LearningAI systems improve vehicle performance without the need for continual reprogramming, aided by frequent and automatic software updates via the cloud.Local Data Processors Onboard computers with specialized chipsets an

58、d software automatically perform real-time calculations with terabytes of data, enabling critical decision-making in milliseconds.AIDeep-learning algorithms enable the vehicle to quickly adapt to changing circumstances and continuously learn from new environments and situations.High-Performance GPS

59、Geosynchronous and low- earth orbit satellites track location down to a few feet, helping guide the vehicle to its destination.ConnectivityAll the systems onboard are networked, communicating with other vehicles and surrounding objects. This allows for adjustmentsdue to changing weather or road cond

60、itions.LiDARLight Detection and Ranging technology senses traffic and vehicle brake lights. These sensors can even detect road conditions based on changes in the amount of light being detected on the road.Millimeter-Wave Radar Millimeter-wave radar uses radio waves to determine the presence, distanc