巴西東北部旅游房地產(chǎn)市場開發(fā)【外文翻譯】

1、 外文翻譯原文Tourism Real Estate Developments in Northeast Brazil Material source： ADIT-NEAuthor ： Diogo CanterasINTRODUCTIONThis article is focused on the Tourism Real Estate in Northeast Brazil, a market that evolved swiftly in the past few years as the result of worldwide cheap capital availability, im

2、proved tourism destinations, perceived investment potential, a favorable exchange rate and low Brazilian asset prices.The information, analyses and conclusions presented herein are the result of an extensive researchedcarried out by HVS and Newmark Knight Frank on behalf of ADIT -NE (Association for

3、 the Development of the Tourism Real Estate Market in Northeast Brazil).The Association gosal is to provide relevant information and analyses to government authorities, investors and developers, in order to assist planning and decision making. The research included vast secondary data collection, fi

4、eld works all over the Northeastern cost and more than 70 interviews with developers, government authorities, brokers, consultant and investors. Its main findings were presented in Norderstedt Invest 2008 (an industry meeting).The complete research and findings will be published by ADIT-NE soon.This

5、 article has six sections apart from this introduction. The first two sections present our definition of the tourism real estate market and shows current market data and projections of supply and demand for residential units in tourism real estate developments. The third and fourth sections present

6、the resormt arket s permfoance as well as project supply and demand for resort drivers affecting the tourism real estate market in Brazil, draw some conclusion and provide Recommend dictions for industry stakeholders.THE TOURISM REAL ESTATE MARKETTourism real estate properties are those located at d

7、esired tourist destinations, composed by second-home units and large tourism and leisure facilities such as hotels, parks, marinas, golf courses, etc. These facilities enhance tourist experience, induce tourist flows and provide services to guests and owners. Therefore, they improve desirability and

8、 leverage prices and sales speed of residential units. Although the operation of such facilities may be unprofitable, the value they add usually increases theprojects overall value.There are 48 tourism real estate complexes operating or under-development in Northeast Brazil. The stock of residential

9、 units and land plots in tourism real estate developments locates in Northeast Brazil amount approximately 1,900 units. In the past three years, sales speed ranged from 20 to 100 units annually, per project. Sales were phased in blocks of 100 to 300 units (most frequently from 100 to 150).Second-hom

10、e sales prices per square meter of built area ranges from R$ 2.500,00 to R$ 3.500,00 for midmarket products or products in less desired locations; from R$ 3.500,00 to R$ 5.000,00 for upscale products; and from R$ 5.000,00 to R$ 7.000,00 in high-end products. Comparing to other countries, Northeaster

11、n-Brazil prices are still low (although in accordance with the national reality) as demonstrated in picture 2. Land sales prices per linear beach-front meters vary significantly, as shown in picture 3. Destination attractiveness and stage of development explain part of the price variations. Some of

12、the most attractive and expensive destinations in Northeast Brazil are Pipa (RN); Porto de Galina (PsE); Marau (BA); Itacar (BA); and Trancoso (BA).During the past seven years, there has been a great increase in land sales price. Currently the perception is that prices are overvalued, given the expe

13、cted revenue and sales speed of residential units in tourism real estate projects.SUPPLY AND DEMAND FORECASTIn the first half of 2008, the aggregateannounced supply of planned tourism real estate projects totaled over 78 thousand residential units. We estimate, however, that only about 7 thousand un

14、its will be built by 2014. Our forecasts are subject to the following assumptions:Average annual GDP growth of 4% to 5% and achievement of inflation targets throughout the projection period.Resumption of North American and European economic growth in tandem with the end of the financial crisis, star

15、ting in the second half of 2009.Absence of new domestic or international economic crises.Maintenance of Brazil cusrrent tourism development strategy in federal and state level.Additionally, our forecasts took into consideration the following information:Existing supply took 30 years to developed amo

16、unt only 1900 units, and salesSpeed in the past years was somewhat limited (as stated previously), even with Very favorable market conditions.Although there has been an increase in foreign demand, it has been significantly Lower than most expectations, even in a favorable environment. In the short-t

17、erm, there are factors (such as the international financial crisis) that will hinder foreign demand. In the mid-term, foreign demand should increase again, but there are no signs that such demand will be much higher than the previously observed or high enough to absorb the announced supply of reside

18、ntial units.Traditionally, large developments take several years to build and sell all residential units, as they are usually developed in small phases.If any phase underperforms (sells slowly or at low prices), subsequent phases are suspended until market conditions improve. Thus, the market mechan

19、isms prevent supply growing faster than demand in normal times.Based on this information and on the individual analysis of all existing projects, we developed a forecast of supply and demand for a seven year period. This time span reflects our estimation of the period required for projects under dev

20、elopment to finish at least their first or current phase.Given the close relationship between supply and demand, we expect future demand for tourism real estate residential units in Northeastern Brazil will be sufficient to absorb the projected supply.This expectation (base scenario) is representedb

21、y the blue line in Picture 5. This Picture also presentsdemand forecasts for two extreme alternative scenarios. The occurrence of these scenarios is subject to the behavior of the following variables: exchange rates, air-travel accessibility, financing availability, the international promotion of Br

22、azil sntdouusritsrym. iThe optimistic scenario assumes the exchange rate will rise and stay at relatively high levels, making the Brazilian product cheaper for international buyers. This increased competitiveness along with investment in infrastructure and marketing will increase attractivenessand a

23、ir-travel accessibility. Simultaneously, the end of the international financial crisis and resumption of international growth will foster the availability of finance.The pessimistic scenario assumes the overvalued local currency, the lack overinvestment in infrastructure and promotion, and the absen

24、ce of financing options, will make Brazil unattractive for international buyers. Consequently, the tourism real estate market becomes exclusively dependant on the domestic demand, which would rise as the result of the expected economic growth.譯文巴西東北部旅游房地產(chǎn)市場開發(fā)資料來源：ADIT NE作者：Diogo Canteras引言這篇文章重點講述的是

25、巴西東北部的旅游房地產(chǎn)市場， 這是一個在過去幾年迅速演化為全球化的廉價資本的可利用性市場，這個市場很好的改善了旅游目的地，讓人們意識到投資的潛力，以及有利的匯率和較低的巴西資產(chǎn)率。這個信息是 HVS和Newmark Knight Frank代表在ADIT -NE （在巴西東北部的一個發(fā)展旅游房地產(chǎn)市場的協(xié)會）分析總結(jié)的。該協(xié)會的目標是提供有關(guān)信息結(jié)果和分析，以政府主管部門，投資者和開發(fā)商，以協(xié)助規(guī)劃和決策。這項研究包括廣大的第二元數(shù)據(jù)采集，遍布東北的各個地方和與70 多個開發(fā)商，政府機關(guān)，經(jīng)紀，顧問和投資者。其主要研究發(fā)現(xiàn)發(fā)表于Nordeste投資2008（一個行業(yè)會議）。完整的研究和調(diào)查結(jié)果

26、將由ADIT玳E很快發(fā)表。文章總共分為六個部分，第一和第二部分主要闡述了我們對旅游房地產(chǎn)市場的定義，并且顯示當前的市場數(shù)據(jù)，以及供給和需求的推算，和旅游房地產(chǎn)住宅單位的發(fā)展。第三和第四部分闡述度假市場的表現(xiàn)，以及這個度假圣地項目中客房的供應(yīng)和需求。第五和第六部分討論司機對旅游房地產(chǎn)市場的影響，從而得出一些結(jié)論，并且提供業(yè)內(nèi)人士的建議。旅游房地產(chǎn)市場旅游房地產(chǎn)是指那些位于理想的旅游目的地，組成的第二個家和大型旅游休閑設(shè)施，如酒店，公園，游艇碼頭，高爾夫球場等， 這些設(shè)施，大大的提高旅游體驗，誘導(dǎo)旅游人群的流動和向客人提供良好的服務(wù)。因此，他們充分提高住宅單位的可取性，以及靈活的價格和銷售速度。盡

27、管這些設(shè)施很可能無利可圖，但是新增的價值通常會提高項目整體的價值。這里總共有48個旅游房產(chǎn)的復(fù)合經(jīng)營或者未發(fā)展的房產(chǎn)在巴西東北部。住宅的股票單位和旅游房產(chǎn)的旅游用地在位于巴西東北部的發(fā)展約有1900個單位。 在過去的三年來， 每年每個單位每個項目的銷售速度介于20至100個單位之間銷售額為分階段在100至300個單位（最頻繁的從100到150）二手房銷售價格每平方米建成區(qū)范圍從R$2.500, 00至R$3.500, 00為中端市場的產(chǎn)品或者需求比較少地區(qū)的產(chǎn)品。價格從 R$3.500, 00至ijR$5.000, 00屬于高檔產(chǎn)品，相比于其他國家價格從R$5.000, 00至R$7.000, 00屬于中高檔產(chǎn)品。巴西東北部價格依然比較低(盡管根據(jù)國家現(xiàn)狀來說 )每線性海灘土地銷售價格變化是關(guān)鍵，目的地的吸引力和階段發(fā)展也是價格變化參考的一部分。一些最有吸引力和最昂貴的目的地是在巴西東北部的 Pipa (RN); Porto de Galina (PE); M ara (BA);Itacar (BA); and Trancoso (BA).。在過去的七年，土地的銷售價格出現(xiàn)了大量的增長。目前人們普遍的認為價格被高估了特別是在旅游房產(chǎn)的預(yù)期收入和銷售方面。供給和需求預(yù)測在2008年上半年