2017美賽優(yōu)秀模板篇2017a

1、Team Control Number55069Problem ChosenAFor office use onlyT1 T2 T3 T4 For office use onlyF1 F2 F3 F4 2017 MCM/ICM Summary SheetThe Rehabiliion of the Kariba DamRecently, the Institute of Risk Management of Soufrica has just warnedtthe Kariba dam is in desperate need of rehabiliion, otherwise the who

2、le dam would collapse, putting 3.5 million people at risk. Aimed to look for the best strategy with thethree options listed to maahe dam,mploy AHP mto filter factors anddetermine two most influential criteria, including potential costs and benefits. With theweight of each criterion worked out, our m

3、 optimal choice.demonstratest option 3 is theAccording to our choice, we are required to offer the recommendation as to the number and placement of the new dams. Regarding it as a set covering problem, wedevelop a multi-objective optimization mto minimize the number of smallerdams while improving th

4、e water resourmanagement capacity. Applying TOPSISevaluation method to get the demand of the electricity and water, we solve this problem with genetic algorithm and get an approximate optimal solution with 12 smaller dams and determine the location of them.Taking the strategy for modulating the wate

5、r flowo account, we construct ajooperation of dam system to simulate the relationship among the smaller damswith genetic algorithm approach. We define four kinds of year based on the Karibas climate data of climate, namely, normal flow year, low flow year, high flow year and differential year. Final

6、ly, these s istics could help us simulate the water flow of eachmonth in one year, then we obtahe water resourplanning and modulating strategy.The sensitivityysis of our mhas poed outt small alteration in ourconstras (including removing an important city of the countries and changing themeasurement

7、of the economic development index etc.) affects the location of some ofour dams slightly while the number of dams remains the same. Also we findt theoutpoefficient is not an important factor for jooperation of the dam system, forthe reasont the discharge index and the capacity index would not change

8、 a lot withthe outpoefficient changing.邁思數(shù)模 2018 美賽課程價(jià)格表聯(lián)系/820496864；/項(xiàng)目名稱價(jià)格包含內(nèi)容報(bào)名方式VIP 學(xué)員無報(bào)名費(fèi)；普通班學(xué)員報(bào)名費(fèi) 80 元；外部學(xué)員報(bào)名費(fèi) 200 元；模擬賽，任選近年美賽題目，寫出，獲得點(diǎn)評(píng)聯(lián)系報(bào)名模擬賽美賽報(bào)名普通班及VIP 班：700元；外部學(xué)員 850 元報(bào)名費(fèi)+美賽打印+模擬賽+賽前沖刺課聯(lián)系報(bào)名普通班（入門班課程）一科 198 元；兩科 298元；三科 398 元【限時(shí)特惠 168-268-368】課程更新時(shí)間為：11 月 1號(hào)，以后每兩天更新一節(jié)。共計(jì) 20 節(jié)課/6313466-237

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10、程+比賽全天指導(dǎo)+模擬賽+輔助報(bào)名免手續(xù)費(fèi)VIP 班（歷年賽題分析班）課程+比賽全天指導(dǎo)+模擬賽+輔助報(bào)名免手續(xù)費(fèi)Team # 55069Page 2 of 2Contents1 Overview11.11.21.3Background1Resement of the Problem1Literature Review2ANoMMmptions and Justifications2ion3Overview4Theory55.15.2Determination of the Number and Location of the Dams5Jooperation of dam system m

11、96 MImplemenion and Results116.16.2The Number and Location11The Strategy of Modulating Water Flow14SensitivityThe MThe MFurther discusysis15of Determination of the Number and Location15of Modulating Water Flow17 179 Strengths and Weaknesses189.19.2Strengths18Weaknesses19 191011 The Evaluation of Thr

12、ee Options2011.1Establish a Hierarchical M 2011.2ysis and Results21Team # 55069Page 1 of 281Overview1.1 BackgroundA Zambezi River Authority conference was held foundations of the dam had weakened and there was awere made.arch 2014, engineers warnedt thesibility of dam failure unless repairsOn 3 Octo

13、ber 2014 the BBC reportedt “The Kariba Dam is in a dangerous se. Opened in1959, it was built on a seemingly solid bed of basalt. However,he past 50 years, the torrentss undercut the damsfrom the spillway have erodedt bedrock, carving a vast craterfoundations, engineers are now warningt without urgen

14、t repairs, the whole dam will collapse.Ifppened, a tsunami-like wall of water would rip through the Zambezi valley, reachingthe Mozambique border within eight hours. The torrent would overwhelm MozambiquesCahora Bassa Dam and knock out 40% of southern Africas hydroelectric capacity. Along withthe de

15、vasion of wildlifehe valley, the Zambezi River Authority estimatest the live of3.5 million people are at risk.”O(jiān)n February 2015, Engineers have started on a R3.3bn rescue marathon to prevent the“catastrophic failure” of the Kariba Dam. According to a World Bspel report on thebeleaguered structure-on

16、e of the biggest man-made damshe world-a potential wall collapsethreatens the lives of about 3-million people living on the Zambezi River floodplain betthe hydro scheme on the Zambia-Zimbabwe border and the Mozambique coast. 1n1.2 Resement of the ProblemWe are required to provide an overview of pote

17、ntial costs and benefits with the three optionsalready listed. Then we need to establish a mto determine the number and placement ofthe new dams when removing the Kariba dam along the Zambezi River. The same overall watermanagement capabilities are also needed. In addition, we should consider emerge

18、ncy waterflow situations and restrictions regarding the locations and time, sot we could give out thestrategy for modulating the water flow through our new multiple dam system.In order to solve those problems, we will proceed as follows:Build a mto determine the number and location of the multiple d

19、ams.Give the corresponding strategy of modulating water flow in different conditions.In our m, weestablish a multi-objective mand use genetic algorithm determinethe number and location of the multiple dams. There are two goals improving the waterresourmanagement capacity and reducing the cost. Besid

20、es, we add some constrachas water balance, water level, safety and watrotection. We choose twenty suitable dam sitesand employ tthe location.etic algorithm to solve the optimal problem to determine the number andAfter determining the number and location of the dams, we construct our jooperation of d

21、amTeam # 55069Page 2 of 28system mand employ tetic algorithm to solve the problem based on the thought ofdynamic programming. According to the Karibas climate data for about 30 years, we abstractnormal flow year, low flow year, high flow year and differential year. We use them to work outthe water r

22、esourplanning and scheduling strategy. The construction of the discharge indexand the capacity index benefits ansystems performance in different monysis and evaluation for jond year.operation of the dam1.3Literature ReviewDating back to 2004, the United Ses removed 72 damsotal, which created a histo

23、ricalrecord. Therefore, it is high time for us to focus on the construction of dams concerning theirnumber and placement. Plenty of researchers have already made a number of notable paddress these problemsrs toAlfer Weber (1909)proed a framework for location problem, which islocation, set coveringqu

24、estion with respect to space resource. Among the three classical location mproblem is a significant branch of siting ito tackle problems with siting optimal poes. They explored a multi-objective location ms.heir m,izing coverage rate in orderto satisfy every plarestrictions are constraneed is thefun

25、ction, the concentric poand the capacityconditions. Thus, they could convert the optimization problem to themixedeger linear programming question.After the set covering mwas established, we can optimize our choice of siting the dams.Then several scientists were devoted to building an optimal operati

26、on mto provide areasonabalance betn safety and balance. They bego figure out how the multiple damsystem would benefit or affect each other within its system. Masse(1940)illustrated theconcept of it; their main computing method was to optimize water modulating strategy duringdispatching period.Furthe

27、r studies are carried out about different methods to investigate the optimal operationm, including dynamic programming algorithm and neural network algorithm based onimproved computer technique. Also, there is much theoreticalysis about location problemsince 1990. John Current and Morton OKelly(1992

28、) suggested using a modified verof theset covering location m, which still didnt take the realityo account.2Amptions and JustificationsTo simplify our problems, we make the following basic ajustified.mptions, each of which is properlyThe dam system is buiownstreamhe valley of the Kariba Dam. Because

29、 itsmore convenient to build and also with less cost, which can be easily implemented.The cost of the dam is mostly the same. Owing to the factt the length of the canyonis not large（24km）,geological conditions and climate conditions are mostly the same.Team # 55069Page 3 of 28Each dams water supply

30、is mostly the same. Takingo account of safe operation ofthe entire multi-dam system, we should make the burden of each dam to be the same asmuch assible.The water quality of the dam system is the average of the water quality betn thetwo reservoirs. The river is flowing, so the water quality is mostl

31、y similar.Water of the dams downstream only comes from dams upstream and naturalprecipiion. According toMaps, there are no tributaries near the canyon. Alsowith the principle of conservation of water, the formula should be maained.3NoionAbbreviationDescriptionY y1 , y2 ,ym The set of citiesxn 2 ,The

32、 set of damsithd ( yi , Xn )The distance from thecity to the nearest smaller damithThe electricity demand ofcityEleiithWatiThe water demand ofcityThe discharge amount of the ith dam atW (t,i)of period t,Z (t,i)The total amount of water released during period tT (t,i)The amount of natural water in pe

33、riod the jth period of the ith damVijThe volumeQijhe jth period of the ith damThe inflowTeam # 55069Page 4 of 28The discharge volumehe jth period of the ith damqijn the ith dam and the (i 1)th damQJijThe runoff volume betThe actual water supply ith damhe jth periodSijhe jth periodDijThe planned wate

34、r supply of theith damhe jth periodHijThe hydraulic head of ith damKiThe fore-voltage factor of theithdamthe tth periodThe discharge flow indicatorstThe storage capacity indicatorshe tth period4MOverviewTo provide a detailedysis of the option (3)-removing the Kariba dam and newly buildingten to twen

35、ty smaller dams. We need to determine the number and location of the multiple dams. And ont basis we must establish a mto modulate the water flow through themultiple dam system to adapt to different situations. A reasonabcost of our strategy is also needed.alance betn safety andOurmallows us to dete

36、rmine the number and the location of the multiple dams. Weregard the optimal problem as a set covering problem and establish a multi-objective mtosolve the problem. There are two goals, namely improving water resourmanagementcapacity and reducing the cost. And there are also some constras including

37、water balance,water level, safety, water resourprotection and number constras. On the accountt theoptimal problem is difficult to solve in polynomial time, so we use genetic algorithm to get thesolution.After determining the numbers and the location,stablish a jooperation of dam systemmto gain a str

38、ategy about modulating water flow in different condition. Though its also amulti-objective problem, it is different from the previous m. We use theization ofeconomic and sol benefits as the objective and set some constras, such as water balance,reservoir capacity and discharge flow constras. We use

39、genetic algorithm to get theTeam # 55069Page 5 of 28modulating strategy in different conditions.In, we use programming and heuristic algorithm to solve the problem of buildingdams and the modulating strategy. Its relatively easy to achieve and it has a significantguidance for the reality.5MTheory5.1

40、 Determination of the Number and Location of the Dams5.1.1 Establishment of the mThe construction of dams needs to consider many aspects, while at the same time it ibjectto economic, sol, environmental constras and other factors. In order to obtahe propernumber of dams and their location,The Objecti

41、vestablish a multi-objective m.Improve Water ResourManagement CapacityThe pure of building smaller dams instead of larger dams is to manage water resourbetter,mainly to satisfy dwellers demand for the electricity consumption and water consumption(Including agricultural, industrial and domestic water

42、) of the neighboring cities. Demand mayvary betn cities, but it is cleart for cities with greater demand, the dam should be builtcloser to them. so we gettmmin Eleid ( yi , Xn ) i1mminWatid ( yi , Xn ) i1Reduce the CostOn the basis of ensuring the water supply ander supply, we should minimize the co

43、st ofour plan. The whole cost consists of the removal of the Kariba dam and building new smallerdams. Since the cost of removal is fixed, so we only consider the variable cost(building cost),which is only related to the number of dams. So we should minimize thedams.ty of the smallermin nThe Constras

44、Water BalanceW (t,i) W (t 1,i) Z (t, k) T (t,i)k (i ) Team # 55069Page 6 of 28W (t,i) ， Z (t,i) and T (t,i) represent the discharge amount of the ith dam atof periodt, the total amount of water released during period t and the amount of natural water in period trespectively. (i) denotes the set of a

45、ll higher dams of ith dam. If (i) is empty, thecorresponding summation is zero.2Water LevelThe water levelhe dam area should be kept betn the dead water level and the limitedwater levelhe flood season. Dead Water Level, namely the lowest water levelt allows a reservoir to fall off under normal opera

46、ting conditions. Flood limited water level is the requirements of control over flood to limit reservoirs water storage. FWLDWSafetyThe construction of multiple smaller dams iseast as safe as the original larger dams. Thesafety considerations for dam construction mainly include reducing the probabili

47、ty of damfailure, thereby reducing damage to dams downstream and enhancingextreme weather.ability toSafetysd SafetyBdSafetysd represents the safety of multiple dams system, whithe existing Kariba dam.denotes the safety ofdWater ResourProtectionThe construction of smaller dams should require a higher

48、 degree of protection for the waterresouras the replacement of the existing dam.WRPsd WRPBdWRPsd represents the environment protection of the multiple dams system, whidenotes the environment protection of the existing Kariba dam.dNumberThe number of small dams should be greatern ten and lessn twenty

49、. Option 3 is replacingthe Kariba dam wiseries of ten to twenty smaller dams.To ensure the continuity of the mestablishment, the parameters of the constras will bedescribedhe next part. Andhe sixth section, we will clarify how to calculate the demandof electricity( Elei ),the demand of the water( Wa

50、ti ),the safety of different dams and theTeam # 55069Page 7 of 28environment protection of different dams.To sum up, we mthe problem about smaller dams number and location deciwithmulti-objective optimization. The formulas of this mismmin Eleid ( yi , Xn ) i1mminWatid ( yi , Xn )i1min nS.t. W (t,i)

51、W (t 1,i) Z (t, k) T (t,i)k (i) FWLDWSafetysd SafetyBd WRPsd WRPBd10 n 20 (n=10, 11, 12.20)5.1.2 The Parameter of the ConstrasThe Demand of ElectricityTheper demand of a city is mainly related to its economic and demographic factors. Ourr uses the citys latest available GDP data as the represenive o

52、f its economic factors, andthe total urban population as the represenive of its demographic factor.city is GDPi .The population of thecity is popi .The GDP of theithithThe Demand of WaterThe water consumption of residents is mainly affected by residents income, watriceand other factors. Since within

53、 a country, the price difference is relatively small, so here we ignore the price difference. Therefore, the water consumption of urban residents is mainly affected by the income of residents, We use the citys GNI to represent its urbanresidents. The GNI of thecity is GNIi .ithThe Safety of Dams and

54、 the Kariba Dam3For the safety of dam construction, our pof its safety indicators.r mainly consider the index of risk loss asntRBdequals to Pmultiply N . P is the le, the current codeFor a singig dam, its Risk Loss Index(RLI)failure probability of the damthe current code standard. For exspecifiest i

55、f a dams seismic safety standard is 50 years10%, the probability ofTeam # 55069Page 8 of 28failure exceeding the current code specification is 0.1 / 50 = 0.002.N is the life loss of damfailure (we can convert economic losso life loss in a certain percentage). We use the Dekay& McClelland method to c

56、alculate the loss. Thus, the RLI of the Kariba dam isRBd P(K) N(K) .For multiple dam system, the RLI of thedam isjthnRj P( j) N ( j) P(l | j) P( j) N (l)l j 1and the RLI of the multiple dam system isnRsdRj 1sd jThe safety of the multiple dam system should be greatern oreast equal to the safety ofnth

57、e existing Kariba dam. So we gett RBd ,Rsdt is to sayR P(K ) N (K ) .And nsdii1is aneger greatern ten and lessn twentyThe water resourprotection of damsAccording to theernational CommisOn Large Dams(ICOLD), there are three goals ofwater resourmanagement4Improved management of the water supplyImprove

58、d water quality in our riversImproved environmental conditionshe watershedSince there are few brancheshe Kariba Ge, we mainly consider the management of thewater supply and the water quality.According to the constras, the water supply of the multiple-dam system should be greatern the big dam.t is to

59、 sayWSsd WSBdWSsdequals to the number of the smaller dams multiply the water supply of a smaller dam,whirepresents the water supply of the Kariba Dam.dTeam # 55069Page 9 of 28Besides, the water quality of the multiple-dam system should be greatern the Kariba dam.WQsd WQBd ,WQsdrepresents the expecte

60、d average water quality of the Lake Kariba if the authority adoptthe option three, whirepresents the present water quality of the Lake Kariba.d5.2 JoOperation of Dam System MJooperation of dam system can utilize the differenbetn dam capacity and hydrologiccondition, sot we develop a jocompensation e