菲律賓銀行業(yè)：為ROE改善而鋪設(shè)的道路

1、Equity ResearchAsia Pacific | PhilippinesPhilippines Banks SectorA paved road for ROEs to improveBanks | Sector ReviewFigure 1: Rational pricing and favourable asset and loan mix to drive NII and ROE1.9Research Analysts0.5+55+3-19-11.11%-8 1.38%Danielo Picache632 858 7758 HYPERLINK

2、 mailto:danielo.picache danielo.picacheSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesROE recovery intact. In our view, top-down factors such as easing interest rates, improving system liquidity and a recovery in government spending are key drivers for banks to improve loan growth momentum. Meanwhile,

3、 bottom-up factors such as favourable asset mix, growth in high-yield loan segments, and RRR cuts easing funding cost pressure should keep NIMs buoyant. Add in the lowering of minimum CET-1 capital buffer for domestic systemically important banks (DSIBs) and we see a clearer path for Phils banks to

4、sustain ROE accretion without the near-term threat of sooner-than-expected cash calls.Macro backdrop supports loan growth, NIM accretion. We estimate system wide loan growth to recover to 13.8% YoY in 2020E. This is driven by improving business and consumer confidence in the economy after a recovery

5、 in GDP growth and inflation already well managed. Meanwhile, we remain convinced that Phils banks are well positioned to deliver buoyant NIMs in 2020-21E. Repricing risk on the asset side will put pressure on average yields, though we think this can be offset by asset mix optimisation (i.e., higher

6、 contribution of loans) and the strong growth in consumer loans (i.e. stronger growth in consumer and/or SME/micro lending). We do see a further 200 bp RRR cut next year in order to further improve system-wide liquidity for the banks, which is a NIM catalyst as well.Valuations remain attractive. We

7、have been structurally bullish on Phils banks NIM story and it remains our key call heading into 2020E. Improving visibility on EPS drivers (particularly NIMs) is a compelling rationale, in our view, to revisit the space. We prefer banks that are well capitalised, have good potential for NIM accreti

8、on, a strong consumer lending franchise, and improving operating leverage. We expect earnings growth to be buoyant for these banks and we think current valuations do not capture this potential recovery in ROAs and ROEs. We remain OVERWEIGHT on Phils banks from a Phils basket point of view with MBT a

9、nd BPI as our top picks. We remain NEUTRAL on BDO; while we upgrade SECB to OUTPERFORM (from Neutral). PNB is our small-cap OUTPERFORM pick. Lastly, we initiate on UBP with a NEUTRAL rating.DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS,LEGAL EN

10、TITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that couldFocus chartsFigure 2: NII growth still a key dr

11、iver for ROA/ROEFigure 3: Trading gains fading but core banking trends robust 0.70.5+55+31210-19-2-1-81.11%1.38%864225%19%11%1%-1-3-5%11%14%20%15%10%5%0%-5%02014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E-10%Aggregate EPSGrowth (% YoY)Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource:

12、 Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 4: Recovery in loan growth as liquidity and GDP riseFigure 5: NIMs will remain buoyant in a more virtuous cycle25%20%15%10%5%0%2011201220132014201520162017201820192020Loan growth YoY (LHS) 12 months forecasted loan growth (LHS)Ave lending rates (RHS)9.0%1

13、0.5% YoYas at Sep-1913.8% YoYby end-2020?8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%5.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.5-4.04.03.2BPIBDOMBTSECBPNBUBP 2018A2019E2020E2021ESource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesFigure 6: Valuations rebound but there is

14、another leg upFigure 7: Long-term ROEs secured as cash call risk eases2.22.01.21.00.8Nov-14Nov-15Nov-16Nov-17Nov-18PBRAve-2SDAve-1SD Average Ave+1SDAve+2SD14.013.012.011.010.09.08.0 13.2 10.1 9.3 10.210.611.211.310.1Finally, a sustainable ROE recovery story2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019

15、E 2020E 2021ESource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesA paved road for ROEs to improveROE recovery intactIn our view, top-down factors such as easing interest rates, improving system liquidity, and a recovery in government spending are key drivers for

16、 banks to improve loan growth momentum. Meanwhile, bottom-up factors such as favourable asset mix, growth in high-yield loan segments, and RRR cuts easing funding cost pressure should keep NIMs buoyant. Add in the lowering of minimum CET-1 capital buffer for domestic systemically important banks (DS

17、IBs) and we see a clearer path for Phils banks to sustain ROE accretion without the near-term threat of sooner- than-expected cash calls. NII growth is the main driver for aggregate sector ROA, which we expect will expand by 27 bp by 2021E (from 2018A) with NII/asset more than offsetting the weak co

18、ntribution of non-II (i.e. fading trading gains). Moving into 2020E, we think EPS growth will remain robust at 11% YoY as gains from treasury operations subside (i.e. creating a high base effect) but should rebound in 2021E with a 14% YoY clip. We continue to see stable NIMs in 2020-21E due to favou

19、rable asset and loan mix as well as RRR cuts easing funding cost pressure despite the benefit of positive repricing fading given the decline in benchmark interest rates. We expect Phils banks will remain rational players, hence, we still see a virtuous cycle for loan growth and pricing in the next t

20、wo years.Macro backdrop supports loan growthWe estimate system wide loan growth to recover to 13.8% YoY in 2020E (vs 10.5% YoY in Sep-2019), or 12.5% YoY for the six banks we cover, on average. The latest reading from the BSPs Business Expectation Survey (BES) and Consumer Expectation Survey (CES) s

21、howed that the overall confidence index (CI) for the following quarters has rebounded quite sharply. We think this is a positive signal that credit demand could recover heading into 2020E as the macro backdrop does start to stabilise particularly in terms of the runaway inflation risk we saw in 2018

22、 and the delays in the passage of the 2019 national budget that crippled public spending in 1H19. Note that GDP growth in 3Q19 outperformed expectations as we finally see a recovery in government spending as well as sustained growth in household consumption.Enough room for NIMs to improveWe remain c

23、onvinced that Phils banks are well positioned to deliver buoyant NIMs heading into 2020-21E. Repricing risk on the asset side will put pressure on average yields, though we think this can be offset by asset mix optimisation (i.e. higher contribution of loans) and the strong growth in consumer loans

24、(i.e. specifically for banks like SECB as its consumer portfolio could account for 34% of its loan book). Funding cost will also ease, in our view, as wholesale funds are repriced lower with banks with lower CASA ratios and high LDRs benefitting the most. We think the BSP will be on a wait-and-see m

25、ode in terms of any further policy rate cuts as the inflation trend normalises upwards. Nevertheless, we do see a further 200 bp RRR cut next year to further improve system-wide liquidity for the banks, which is a NIM catalyst as well.Another round of reratingWe have been structurally bullish on Phi

26、ls banks NIM story and it remains our key call heading into 2020E. Improving visibility on EPS drivers particularly NIMs is a compelling rationale, in our view, to revisit the space. We prefer banks that are well capitalised, have good potential for NIM accretion, a strong consumer lending franchise

27、, and improving operating leverage. We expect earnings growth to be buoyant for these banks and we think current valuations do not capture this potential recovery in ROEs (i.e., from 9.3% in 2018A to 10.6% in 2021E). Note also that the recent lowering of minimum DSIB buffer for banks should ease cas

28、h call risks, which further ensures the long-term recovery of ROE for the sector. We remain OVERWEIGHT on Phils banks from a Phils basket point of view with MBT and BPI as our top picks. We stay NEUTRAL on BDO, while we upgrade SECB to OUTPERFORM (from Neutral). PNB is our small-cap OUTPERFORM pick.

29、 Lastly, we initiate on UBP with a NEUTRAL rating.We expect ROA to expand by 27 bp by 2021E with NIM expansion the key driver; ROE will sustainably recover to 10.6% by 2021E (from its bottom of 9.3% in 2018A).Loan growth to recover in 2020E as government spending accelerates, household consumption b

30、uoyed by stable inflation.Average sector NIM should remain strong driven by loan and asset mix optimisation and easing funding cost pressure to counter downward repricing of loans; RRR cuts are also a key driver for NIMs in 2020-21E.Valuation comparison and financial summaryFigure 8: Phils bankssumm

31、ary of key valuation metricsBDOBPIMBTPNBSECBUBPSectorRatingNEUTRALOUTPERFORMOUTPERFORMOUTPERFORMOUTPERFORMNEUTRALShare price (P)154.3090.9066.9541.20201.0059.00Target price (P)156.50113.4087.0058.50229.5063.00% up/downside1.424.829.942.014.26.8Market cap (P bn)675,927409,681301,10251,465151,46171,83

32、91,589,636Market cap (US$ mn)13,2728,0445,9121,0102,9741,41131,212Valuation ratios:P/E (x)2018A20.817.013.05.417.68.918.02019E16.413.47.314.52020E14.912.78.813.12021E4.910.77.611.4EPS (% YoY)2018A15.4-6.06.316.0-16.1-16.21.52019E27.219.522.7-22.531.821.819.02020E9.814

33、.0-17.310.72021E13.214.713.714.718.615.614.4EPS 2-year CAGR (%)19-21E11.514.314.919.211.8-2.210.1P/PPOP (x)2018A13.513.06.911.82019E11.09.16.09.62020E8.82021E7.7P/B (x)2018A2.02019E1.52020E1.61.40.

34、1.42021E1.2Dividend yield (%)2018A0.82.01.50.02019E0.82.01.50.01.03.21.42020E0.82.01.50.01.03.21.42021E0.82.01.50.01.03.21.4ROA (%)2018A1.02019E1.42020E1.42021E1.5ROE (%)2018A7.88.

35、08.99.32019E11.511.010.510.12020E11.42021E11.610.48.810.6Note: Priced as of 21 November 2019.Source: Company data, Refinitiv, Credit Suisse estimatesPrice (P)Price (P)Rating*Target price (P)YearCFPSCFPS FY1ECFPS FY2ECFPS FY3ECompanyCcy20 Nov 19PrevCurPrevCuren

36、dCcyPrevCurPrevCurPrevCurBDO Unibank Inc (BDO.PS)P157.80N132.90156.50Dec-2018P8.559.429.7410.3411.71Bank of Philippine Islands (BPI.PS)P93.00O97.60113.40Dec-2018P6.116.397.147.288.038.35Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co (MBT.PS)P67.50O82.6587.00Dec-2018P7.157.428.477.778.88Philippine National Bank (PNB.P

37、S)P41.75O60.0058.50Dec-2018P7.587.719.749.5010.5610.90Security Bank Corp (SECB.PS)P203.00NO180.60229.50Dec-2018P17.4817.8119.4218.4621.76Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP.PS)P59.50NAN63.00Dec-2018P8.126.717.76* O = Outperform, N = Neutral,V= Stock consider volatile ( see Disclosure Appendix).Compan

38、y data, Credit Suisse estimatesTable of Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 Focus charts2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 A paved road for ROEs to improve3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250013 ROE recovery intact3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 Macro backdrop supports loan growth3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Enough room for NIMs to i

39、mprove3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 Another round of rerating3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Valuation comparison and financial summary4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 ROE recovery intact6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Macro backdrop supports loan growth9 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Enough room for NIMs to improve13 HYPERLINK

40、 l _TOC_250005 Another round of rerating17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 BDO Unibank Inc22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 Bank of Philippine Islands25 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Security Bank Corp31 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Philippine National Bank34Union Bank o

41、f the Philippines37ROE recovery intactTop-down and bottom-up factors favourable for banksIn our view, top-down factors such as easing interest rates, improving system liquidity, and a recovery in government spending are key drivers for banks to improve loan growth momentum. Meanwhile, bottom-up fact

42、ors such as favourable asset mix, growth in high-yield loan segments, and RRR cuts easing funding cost pressure should keep NIMs buoyant. Add in the lowering of minimum CET-1 capital buffer for domestic systemically important banks (DSIBs) and we see a clearer path for Phils banks to sustain ROE acc

43、retion without the near-term threat of sooner- than-expected cash calls. We remain OVERWEIGHT on Phils banks from a Phils basket point of view with MBT and BPI as our top picks. We remain NEUTRAL on BDO; while we upgrade SECB to OUTPERFORM (from Neutral). PNB is our small-cap OUTPERFORM pick. Lastly

44、, we initiate on UBP with a NEUTRAL rating.Paved road for ROA and ROE to sustain improvementNII growth is the main driver for aggregate sector ROA, which we expect will expand by 27 bp by 2021E to 1.38% (from 2018As 1.11%) with NII/asset more than offsetting the weak contribution of non-II (i.e. fad

45、ing trading gains). In general, improving economies of scale and conscious cost containment should lead to efficiencies (i.e. digital banking, asset-light branch expansion for some banks). Meanwhile, we do not expect any significant deterioration in asset quality trends (i.e. the Hanjin case in earl

46、y January was an isolated event), and therefore, we think credit cost is stable. ROE improvement should follow suit, especially as most of these banks are already well capitalised to lever up their balance sheet. ROEs have been challenged and dipped to as low as 9.3% in 2018A (from 13.2% in 2014A) d

47、ue to incessant cash calls among the banks. Nevertheless, we now see this sustainably improving to 10.6% by 2021E as banks are now in a virtuous cycle of balancing growth and profitability. BPI should be able to deliver sector-best ROEs; while BDO risks ROE deterioration if it again raises new capit

48、al.A virtuous cycle for banks to sustainably lift their ROEs as macro drivers are accommodative.Figure 9: PH banksROA attribution chart (in bp)Figure 10: PH banks2014A-2021E ROE0.7+55+314.013.012.011.010.0 10.6 -19-2-11.38%-81.11% 13.2 11.3 11.2 10.1 10.1 10.2 9.3 0.59.08.0Finally,

49、 a sustainable ROE recovery story2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021ESource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSource: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesOverall healthy EPS growth in 2020-21EOverall earnings growth for the sector has been superb in 9M19 driven by strong NIM accretio

50、n plus the significant boost from treasury-related gains. As such, we forecast aggregate EPS for Phils banks to close out 2019E with a 19% YoY growth performance. Moving into 2020E, we think EPS growth will remain robust at 11% YoY as gains from treasury operations subside (i.e. creating a high base

51、 effect) but should rebound in 2021E with a 14% YoY clip. We continue to see stable NIMs in 2020-21E due to favourable asset and loan mix as well as RRR cuts easing funding cost pressure despite the benefit of positive repricing fading given the decline in benchmark interest rates. We expect Phils b

52、anks will remain rational players, hence, we still see a virtuous cycle for loan growth and pricing in the next two years. In general, core operating income (ex-trading gains) should grow 11-12% YoY in 2020-21E (vs 15% YoY in 2019E) given the sustained contribution from NII and improving fee income

53、generation as a function of asset growth. Of the banks we cover, we see a sharp rebound in EPS for PNB in 2020E (24% YoY), which is a function of the low base this year caused by its stock rights offering in July. Meanwhile, we see UBP posting a 17% YoY decline in EPS for next year as trading gains

54、dissipate while we expect higher provisioning due to depleted NPL coverage especially as new NPL formation looks elevated.We expect robust EPS growth of 11% and 14% YoY in 2020-21E driven by strong core banking revenue drivers (i.e. NII and fee income generation).Figure 11: PH banksEPS growth per ba

55、nk (% YoY)Figure 12: PH banksaggregate EPS growth (% YoY)40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%BPIBDOMBTPNBSECBUBP 20156-18A CAGR2019E2020E2021E1219%11%-1%1%-5%-3%11%14%108642020142015201620172018 2019E 2020E 2021EAggregate EPSGrowth (% YoY)25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesSou

56、rce: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesEarnings adjustments post 9M19 results.We adjust our earnings assumptions for the sector following the 9M19 results and push our 2019E EPS by an average of 4.5%, which is essentially on the back of the better than expected trading gains and NIM accretion pus

57、hing NII higher. We slightly upgrade our 2020E sector EPS by 1%, upgrade our 2021E estimate by 3-4% for BPI and PNB while we introduce our 2021E estimates for BDO, MBT, and SECB. We are also initiating on UBP and have now included it in our aggregated estimates for the sector as a whole. We generall

58、y hiked our NII forecast for the mid-sized banks (specifically SECB) mainly on potential NIM accretion as funding cost pressures ease and average yield on their loan book improves further due to the contribution of consumer lending. Meanwhile, most of the EPS cuts for 2020-21E for individual banks a

59、re from (1) lowered trading gains estimates, (2) higher opex specifically staff-related costs (i.e. renewal of collective bargaining agreements), and (3) adjustments in general loan loss provisioning.Figure 13: PH Bankssummary of forecast changesBDOBPIMBTPNBSECBP bn2019E2020E2021E2019E2020E2021E2019

60、E2020E2021E2019E2020E2021E2019E2020E2021ECurrent forecastsNet interest income119.9133.6151.665.472.883.477.584.293.731.435.441.426.430.234.9Non-interest income56.563.469.128.730.332.628.624.66.7PPOP61.567.075.744.248.355.847.253.760.913.416.419.316.717.821.0Pretax income55.560.968