美國保險(xiǎn)業(yè)：早期保險(xiǎn)購買者調(diào)查：市場穩(wěn)定跡象轉(zhuǎn)硬

1、FOCUSU.S. Insurance/Non-LifeEarly 2019 Insurance Buyers Survey: Stable Market, Signs of HardeningOurproprietaryCommercialP&CInsuranceBuyersSurvey,whichwehavebeen conductingsince2000,indicatesP&Cmarketconditionsarecurrentlystablealthough on the cusp of tightening by the most in five years following r

2、ecord-level insured catastrophelossesin2017-18.Weviewthisasamoresignificantchangethanmany are expecting. Insurers are showing signs of increased underwriting discipline, with Chubbleadingthecharge(whichsupportsourOWratingonitsshares).Meanwhile, underwritingtrendsatAIGappeartobeinfluxwhichcouldmeanit

3、splantoimprove P&Cunderwritingresultscouldtakeevenlongerthananticipated.Major Insights from our Survey: Commercial P&C insurance prices are expected to slightly increase (medianincreaseis2%)asofearly2019whichmarkedthehighest paceofincreaseinoverfiveyearsalthoughwithawiderangeofoutcomes.NearlyallINDU

4、STRY UPDATEU.S.Insurance/Non-LifeNEUTRALUnchangedU.S.Insurance/Non-Life Jay Gelb,CFA+1 212 526 1561 HYPERLINK mailto:jay.gelb jay.gelb BCI,USSueLee+1 212 526 8190 HYPERLINK mailto:sue.lee sue.lee BCI, USAndrew Karp+1 212 526 9015EquityResearch31 January2019thosesurveyedsaidthecommercialP&Cmarketisbr

5、oadlystable.Around85%of buyers said the catastrophe-exposed property insurance market is stable, although manyindicatedabiastowardhardening.Meanwhile,nearlytwo-thirdsofbuyerswe surveyedareinvolvedinmulti-yearP&Cprogramswhichhaslimitedthemagnitudeof rateincreases.Lookingahead,somebuyersexpectthesedea

6、lstobelessprevalent.Directional trends point to increasing P&C pricing which follows two consecutive yearsofoutsizedglobalinsuredcatastrophelosses.Oftheriskmanagerswe interviewed,70%anticipaterateincreasesinearly2019(upfrom54%sixmonthsago), whichwasthehighestlevelinoverfiveyearsandisamongthemostnota

7、bledata pointsinourSurvey.Meanwhile,12%expectaflatrenewal.Theremaining18% anticipateratedecreases(lowestlevelinfiveyears).Policy terms and conditions, which affect underwriting margins, are tightening. One- quarterofthosesurveyedexpecttighteningtermsandconditions,whichwasthe highestlevelin12years.Th

8、eeaseordifficultyoftherenewalprocessforbuyers,which isanindicatorofunderwritingdiscipline,isexpectedtovarywidelydependingonclaim experience;three-quartersofthoseinterviewedsaidthemostrecentrenewalprocessis thesameoreasiercomparedtoayearago.Insurance broker fees could remain mostly unchanged with aro

9、und 15% of buyers planningtoincreaseamountspaidtotheirbrokersreflectingexposuregrowth.The percentageofbuyersswitchinginsurancebrokerswasconsistentlong-termaverages.Ourmostrecentsemi-annualBuyersSurvey,whichwehavebeenconductingsince 2000,consistsofliveinterviews(ratherthanonlinesurveys)with50largecom

10、panyrisk managers.Inadditiontopricingtrends,ourreportincludesdetailedperspectiveson P&Cinsurancemarketconditions,insurers,andbrokers(continuedonpage2). HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.karp andrew.karp BCI, USCapitalInc.oneofdoesandseekstodoinitsresearchAsabeawarethatthe mayhaveaofthattheofconsiderthisasonly

11、afactorinmakingtheirPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 37.What Did We Learn That Was New?Signs of Firming Rates in a Mostly Stable Commercial P&C Insurance Market. Based onoursurveyresults,thepercentageofbuyersexpectingdirectionallyhigherP&Crates wasatthe

12、highestlevelinoverfiveyearsdrivenbycommercialpropertyinsurance. RespondentsexpectanoverallmedianP&Crateincreaseof2%,whichisthehighest levelsincemid-2013andanincreasefrom1%bothsixmonthsandayearago. Meanwhile,allbutonerespondentviewedtheP&Cmarketasstable,althoughmore respondentsindicatedabiastowardsha

13、rdeningcomparedtosixmonthsago.Examples of Increasing Underwriting Discipline. Manyinsurersarefiercelyprotecting theirexistingbusinessfromcompetition,particularlyforlargeaccountswithfavorable loss experience and limited catastrophe exposure. Meanwhile, several respondents notedtherehavebeensignsofinc

14、reasingunderwritingdisciplinewhentargetingnew business, particularly in catastrophe-exposed property insurance. Several buyers indicatedChubbwasfirmlyholdingthelineonpricing.UnderwritingtrendsatAIGstill appeartobeinfluxreflectingrelativelynewmanagementoversightaswellactionsthe companyhastakentoimpro

15、vereturns.MostlyStableInsuranceBrokerCompensation.Mostriskmanagersexpecttopaytheir brokersthesameamountasayearago.Meanwhile,16%expecttopayahigherfee (downslightlyfrom20%sixmonthsago)reflectingexposuregrowth.Inourmost recentsurvey,twobuyersaddedanewinsurancebrokertotheirprograms,whiletwo otherrespond

16、entsdroppedexistingbrokersfromtheirprograms.Theswitchingof brokersbytheircustomershasreturnedtothehistoricalmedianlevelof8%following particularlylowturnoverinthepastyear.Multi-Year P&C Deals Could Be Tougher to Renew. In our most recent survey of 50 largecommercialinsurancebuyers,nearlytwo-thirdshad

17、amulti-yeardealinplacefor atleastaportionoftheirinsurancecoverage.However,severalrespondentswere concernedthatmulti-yearprogramsmightnotbeavailablein2019andbeyondas insurersseekrateincreases.Still,somebuyerswereoptimisticthatmulti-yeardeals wouldstillbeofferedtocustomerswithattractiveriskprofilesinc

18、ludingbenignclaims experienceandstronglong-termrelationshipswithinsurers.Severalrespondentsnoted that previously implemented multi-year programs prevented more significant rate increasesparticularlyinpropertyinsurancelines.Commercial P&C Market Is Slightly FirmingInsurers expected large catastrophe

19、losses to result in a meaningful hardening of commercialP&Crates,butthishasnothappened.Thereisstillamplecapacity.In2019,we expectourcommercialinsuranceratestomodestlyincrease.-Largehealthcarecompanyriskmanager,MidAtlanticUSOurproprietaryearly2019CommercialInsuranceBuyersSurveyshowsP&Cpricingis sligh

20、tlyincreasingfollowingrecord-levelindustrycatastrophelossesin2017-18.We interviewed50riskmanagersinourmostrecentsurvey:overallmediancommercialP&C insurancepricesareexpectedtoincrease2%inearly2019.Althoughmodest,thisresultis thehighestpaceofrateincreasesincemid-2013andmarkedthethirdconsecutivequarter

21、 ofpositivemedianrateincreaseexpectations.Directionally,70%ofrespondentsexpectincreasedP&Crenewalrates,upfrom54%six monthsago.Aroundhalfoftheriskmanagerswesurveyedexpectastablerenewalprocess.Multi-yearinsuranceprogramsappeartohaveputalidonnear-termrateincreasesfor largeaccounts.Thisisbecausepricesan

22、dpolicytermstypicallyarenotadjusteduntilthe policyrenews.However,severalrespondentsareconcernedthatmulti-yeardealsmightnot beavailablein2019andbeyond.Commercial Property Insurance. Inpropertylines,ratesareexpectedtoincrease3%in early2019,whichcomparestounchangedratessixmonthsago.Slightlymorethan 60%

23、ofriskmanagerswesurveyedexpectpropertyinsurancepriceincreases,upfrom aroundone-thirdsixmonthsago.Meanwhile,18%expectaflatrenewal,downfrom slightlylessthan50%sixmonthsago.Also,20%ofrespondentssaidtheirproperty insurancepricingcoulddecrease.Therangeofpropertyinsuranceratechangeswas wide:betweendown10%

24、toup25%.Casualty Insurance. Median casualty insurance pricing should be unchanged, which wouldbeconsistentwiththeresultfrombothsixmonthsandayearago.Oftherisk managerswesurveyed,slightlylessthan50%expectarateincrease,justunder40% expectaflatrenewal,and12%anticipatearatedecrease.Casualtyinsurancerate

25、changesrangedbetweendown10%toup8%.Still a Mostly Stable P&C Market. TheconsensusamongriskmanagersisthattheP&C marketisstable,withelevenrespondents(22%)indicatingabiastowardshardening. OnlyoneriskmanagercharacterizedtheoverallP&Cmarketashard.Themajorityof thosewesurveyedpointedtoexcessunderwritingcap

26、acityandcompetitionamong insurersforprofitablebusinessasthemaincausesofmarketstabilitydespiterecord- levelinsuredcatastrophelosses.Hardening Catastrophe-Exposed Property Insurance Market. In our most recent survey,86%ofrespondentsviewcatastrophe-exposedinsurancelinesasbeingstable with40%oftheserespo

27、ndentsindicatedabiastowardshardening.Meanwhile,12%of riskmanagersviewedthismarketashard,andonlyoneriskmanagerdescribedthe catastrophe-exposedpropertyinsurancemarketassoft.Somebuyerspointedto tighteningreinsurancepricingastheprimarydriverforhardeningprimarycommercial P&C insurancerates.FIGURE 1Barcla

28、ys Commercial Insurance Buyers Survey Summary FindingsMedian Pricing TrendsMid 2012Early 2013Mid 2013Early 2014Mid 2014Early 2015Mid 2015Early 2016Mid 2016Early 2017Mid 2017Early 2018Mid 2018Early 2019Overall3%3%2%1%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%1%1%2%Property4%3%2%0%0%0%0%-3%-3%-3%-3%2%0%3%Casualty2%3%2%1%0%

29、0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%Directional Changes in Commercial P&CRatesRate increases76%83%73%56%36%24%8%12%12%12%24%58%54%70%Flat renewals15%17%19%27%32%24%35%30%26%24%14%18%24%12%Rate decreases9%0%8%17%32%52%57%58%62%64%62%24%22%18%Policy terms andconditionsMore Restrictive7%9%7%5%0%6%0%2%0%0%0%0%2%25%Same88

30、%89%92%92%92%74%78%68%82%76%82%94%86%61%Less restrictive5%1%1%3%8%20%22%30%18%24%18%6%12%14%RenewalProcessMore Difficult for Buye36%33%29%11%15%8%0%2%2%4%4%22%24%27%Same64%66%68%88%81%48%46%54%44%66%48%72%54%51%Easier0%1%3%1%4%44%54%44%54%30%48%6%22%22%HowdoyouviewtheP&Cmarketbroadly?Hard23%3%1%1%2%

31、2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%Stable77%96%99%96%80%82%66%48%60%50%61%100%100%98%Soft0%1%0%3%17%18%34%52%40%50%39%0%0%0%Howdoyouviewthecatastrophe-exposedpropertyinsurancemarket?Hard41%17%4%4%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%10%14%12%Stable59%83%96%95%72%84%62%56%46%52%62%90%86%86%Soft0%0%0%1%20%16%38%44%54%48%38%0%0%2%Source: Bar

32、clays ResearchCommercial P&C Pricing Slightly Increasing. Commercial P&C insurance pricing slightlyincreasedinearly2019,withawiderangeofoveralloutcomesbetweendown10% toup15%.Themedianresultinearly2019ofpricingup2%followsoutsizedglobalinsured catastrophelossesof$230bnin2017-18largelyfromhurricanesand

33、Californiawildfires. SeveralrespondentsnotedthereisstillsignificantexcesscapacityinthecommercialP&C marketwhichcouldlimitadditionalhardening.Meanwhile,therehavebeensignsof increasing underwritingdiscipline.Themajorityofriskmanagersexpectratestobeflat-to-upforthethirdsurveyinarow.In ourmostrecentsurv

34、ey,70%ofrespondentsexpectpriceincreases,whichisthehighest levelsincemid-2013andupfrom54%sixmonthsago.Thisresultreflectsinsurers reactionsfollowingtwoyearsofelevatedcatastrophelosses.Meanwhile,sixrespondents (12%) expect a flat renewal, down from around one-quarter six months ago. Nine respondents(18

35、%)anticipatearatedecrease,downslightlyfrom11respondents(22%)in mid-2018.Propertyinsuranceratesasofearly2019areexpectedtobeup3%year-over-year, althoughtherenewalpricingrangewaswideatdown10%toup25%.Directionally,62%of theriskmanagersexpectpricestoincrease,upsignificantlyfrom36%sixmonthsago. Meanwhile,

36、only18%saidpricingwouldbeflat(downfrom46%sixmonthsago),and20% ofrespondentsexpectlowerpropertyrates(mostlyunchangedfromsixmonthsago).Several risk managers anticipating property insurance rate increases said itreflects tighteningmarketconditionsortheirownclaimsactivity.Severalotherrespondentssaid fla

37、t-to-downratesreflectedintensecompetitionamonginsurers,theirownbenignclaims activity,long-termrelationshipswithinsurers,andexcessindustrycapacity.Mediancasualtyinsurancepricingisexpectedtoremainflat(consistentwithoursurvey resultsfromsixmonthsago).Inourmostrecentsurvey,mostriskmanagersdescribedthe c

38、asualtymarketasstable.Thefewrespondentsexpectingtorenewathigherratespointed totheirownchallengedclaimsexperience.FIGURE 2Directional Change in Commercial P&C Rates: Early 2019 Trends Point to Firming Pricing Versus Six Months Ago100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%RateincreasesFlatrenewalsRatedecreases

39、Source: Barclays ResearchPolicyTermsandConditionsTightening;WillMulti-YearProgramsStillbe Available in 2019 andBeyond?Inourmostrecentsurvey,one-quarterofrespondentssaidpolicytermsandconditionsare expectedtotightencomparedtoayearago,whichisthehighestlevelsincemid-2006in theaftermathofHurricanesKatrin

40、a,Rita,andWilma.Thisresultcomparestonomorethan 10%ofrespondentsexpectingtighteningtermsandconditionsforthepriorsixyears. Meanwhile,61%ofrespondentssaidpolicytermsandconditionsarestablecomparedtoa yearago.Sevenrespondents(14%)expectlooseningpolicyterms,whichwetypicallyview asunfavorableforinsurersbec

41、auseitcanresultinmoreclaimsbeingcovered.Separately,manyinsurershavelockedinmulti-year(ratherthanannual)insurance programsoverthepastfewyears.Severalrespondentssaidthatpropertyinsuranceprice increaseswouldhavebeenhigherifamulti-yearprogramhadnotpreviouslypurchased.Manyriskmanagersappearconcernedabout

42、theirabilitytorenewmulti-yearprogramsina potentiallyhardeningP&Cmarket,whilesomewereconfidentthesedealswillremain availablebasedonstronglong-termrelationshipswiththeirinsurers.Inourmostrecentsurvey,nearlytwo-thirdsofrespondentsareengagedinamulti-yearP&C programforatleastaportionoftheirinsuranceprogr

43、am.Inourexperienceoverthepast twodecades,multi-yeardealstendtobeunfavorablefortheinsurersbecauseittendsto lockinpricingregardlessofclaimsexperience.Here is what several risk managers had to say about multi-year deals:Wehaveamulti-yearpropertyinsurancerateguarantee,whichresultedinaflatrenewalin 2018d

44、espitelargeindustrycatastrophelosses.Itsuncertainifwewillbeabletorenewthis contractonceitexpiresbutwewillpushforanextension.-FinancialServices,ENoCentralIwouldexpectasizeablepropertyinsurancerateincreasein2019onceour3-yearproperty insurance rate guarantee expires. I doubt we will be able to extend t

45、he multi-year agreementbecausetheincumbentinsurer(AIG)isexercisingincreasedunderwriting discipline.Real Estate,CanadaMulti-yearinsuranceprogramsarenotasprevalent,whichIviewasaleadingindicatorofa hardeningcommercialP&Cinsurancemarket.Education, MidAtlanticWehavenotusedmulti-yearinsuranceprograms.This

46、isbecauseweviewtheavailabilityof multi-yeardealsasanindicationthatcommercialP&Cpricingislikelytodecrease.We wouldbeinterestedinamulti-yearsinglelimitpolicy(MYSL)forcatastrophe-exposed propertyinsurancerisks,buttheratesofferedbyinsurershavenotbeenattractiveenough.Manufacturing,ENoCentralOurpropertyin

47、suranceratedeclinedin2018asaresultofa3-yearprogramwithFM Global.Mysenseisourpricingwouldhaveincreasedwithoutthisagreement.Wewerenot abletoextendthecontractfor2019andbeyond.Manufacturing, MidAtlanticAroundhalfofourpropertyinsuranceprogramsarecurrentlymulti-yearcontracts,butI anticipatethesewillnolong

48、erbeavailableforrenewalsoncethetermexpires.Energy, SouthAtlanticIamconcernedthatwewontbeabletorenewour3-yearpropertyinsuranceprogramonce itexpires.-Education,NortheastIgetthesensethatmulti-yeardealsarebecominglessavailableformajorproperty-casualty lines.However,theyarestillreadilyavailableforsmaller

49、linesofcoverageincludingpollution liability.-Healthcare,ENoCentralI anticipate multi-year pollution liability programs may not be available for much longer.Education,NortheastWerecentlynegotiatedanotherextensiontoour3-yearmulti-yearcasualtyinsurance programasaresultoffavorableclaimsexperienceandourl

50、ong-termrelationshipwiththe incumbentinsurer.Weexpecttorenewthecontractinthefutureaslongasourclaims experience remainsbenign.Public Entity,CanadaI anticipate we will be able to renew our multi-year property insurance program.-Consumer, MidAtlanticIexpectwewillbeabletoextendourmulti-yeardirectors&off

51、icers(D&O)liabilityprogram withAIG.RealEstate,ENoCentralWelockedinamulti-yearworkerscompensationprogramincludingguaranteedprice decreases.DiversifiedNortheastWeeasilyrenewedamulti-yearworkerscompensationprogramwhichwillkeepour premiumsflatdespiteagrowingnumberofcoveredemployees.Public Entity,Pacific

52、Wehavenotyetbeenofferedamulti-yearprogramthatwouldprovideattractivepricingas wellaspolicyterms.Real Estate,PacificMixed Renewal Process for Buyers. We view the renewal process as a leading indicatorofwhohasmorenegotiatingleverageinsurersortheircustomers.Basedon recentresults,weviewthisfactorasindica

53、tingsomesignsofdisciplineforaccountswith challengedclaimsexperience.Meanwhile,competitionamonginsurersforprofitable business remainsintense.Inourmostrecentsurvey,halfofrespondentsexpecttherenewalprocesstobesimilarin difficultycomparedtoayearago.Meanwhile,one-quarterofrespondentsexpectthe renewalproc

54、esstobemoredifficult,andelevenrespondents(22%)expecttherenewal processtobeeasierthanayearago.Thesetrendsweremostlyunchangedfromsixmonths ago.Almost All Buyers Surveyed Still Describe the P&C Market as Stable. In our mostrecentsurvey,allbutoneriskmanagerweintervieweddescribedthecommercialP&C marketas

55、“stable”.Notably,elevenrespondents(22%)indicatedabiastowardshardening, upfromonlysixrespondents(12%)sixmonthsago.Manyriskmanagerspointedto substantialinsuredindustrycatastrophelossesin2017-18astheprimaryreasonfora potentiallyfirmingcommercialP&Cpricingenvironment.Inthecatastrophe-exposedpropertyinsu

56、rancemarket,86%(unchangedfromsixmonths ago)describedthemarketasstable,althoughmanyofthosewhocharacterizedthemarket asstableindicatedabiastowardhardening.Meanwhile,sixrespondents(12%)saiditwasa hardmarket.Onlyoneriskmanagerinourmostrecentsurveysaidthecat-exposed propertymarketwassoft.Insurance Broker

57、 Fees Mostly Unchanged. Three-quarters of buyers said their insurancebrokerfeeswouldbeunchangedcomparedtoayearago.Meanwhile,16% expecttopayahigherfee,slightlydownfrom20%sixmonthsago.OurCommercialInsuranceBuyersSurveyIsDistinctiveWehavebeenconductingoursemi-annualsurveysince2000,anditisuniqueforsever

58、al reasons:First,wecontacttheriskmanagers,theendusersoftheproduct,ratherthanthe insurersorbrokers.Asaresult,wehaveactualexamplesofpricechangesratherthan impressionsofoverallmarketconditions.Second,weconductlivetelephoneinterviewswith50riskmanagerstwiceeachyear ratherthanhavingthemfilloutanonlinesurv

59、ey.Third,weconducttheinterviewsourselvesinsteadofoutsourcingtheprojecttoathird- party.Ourmethodologyprovidesconsistencyinthewayweconducttheinterviews,allowsustodelveintothetechnicalaspectsoftheP&Crenewalprocess,andhelpsus captureriskmanagersopinionsonthestateofthecommercialP&Cmarket.Theriskmanagersc

60、ommentsregardingP&Cmarketconditionsandtheinsurancebrokers, whichwebelievemakeforveryinterestingreading,arepresentedthroughoutthereport.In summary,webelievethatoursurveyoffersauniqueperspectiveoncommercialP&C insurance marketconditions.Conductingsemi-annualinterviewswithdozensofriskmanagersisatime-co