全球市場策略與展望

全球市場策略與展望2007年11月策略總結(jié)資產(chǎn)分布悲觀比較悲觀中性比較樂觀樂觀資產(chǎn)類別債券股票現(xiàn)金債券*歐洲加拿大澳大利亞日本亞洲全球新興市場美國股票美國日本歐洲全球新興市場亞洲/中國香港*指久期加權(quán)債券Octoberwasamixedmonthforglobalequitymarkets.USandJapaneseequitiesendedthemonthmarginallyhigher,whilstEuropeanequitiesfaredslightlybetter.Bycomparison,emergingmarketswerestellarperformers.TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexreturnedalmost10%inOctober,andindividualmarketssuchasIndiaandChina,returnedasmuchas14.7%and16.3%respectively.ThedivergenceintheperformancebetweenemerginganddevelopedequitymarketsindicatedthatinvestorsfavouredgrowthassetsinOctober.對全球股票市場來說，十月是一個充滿變數(shù)的月份。截至月底美國和日本的股票輕微上漲，而歐洲股市的表現(xiàn)略好一些。相比之下，新興市場成為市場主角。摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)新興市場指數(shù)幾乎同月上升百分之十，個別市場，如印度和中國，分別上漲14.7％和16.3％。新興和發(fā)達(dá)資本市場的表現(xiàn)分歧表明，投資者10月份更青睞成長性資產(chǎn)。Therewerealsonotablemovementsincurrencyandcommoditymarkets.TheUSDcontinuedtodepreciatesignificantlyagainstmostmajorcurrencies,motivatinginvestorstofleeUSDdollarassets.Thisinturnhelpedpushgoldpriceshigher,anditreachedrecordhighsduringthemonth.OilpricealsoroseandalmosthitUS$100dollarsabarrel,asconcernsoverinventory,ledtospeculationthattherewouldbesupplyconstraintsinthefuture.貨幣和商品市場也有顯著波動。美元對大部分主要貨幣的匯率繼續(xù)大幅度貶值，促使投資者遠(yuǎn)離美元資產(chǎn)。這反過來又推動了黃金價格的走高，并一路飆升至紀(jì)錄新高。石油價格也出現(xiàn)上漲，幾乎達(dá)到每桶100美元的價格，因?yàn)槭袌鰧Υ尕浻幸蓱]，認(rèn)為未來在石油供應(yīng)上可能出現(xiàn)短缺。Duringthemonth,severallargefinancialservicescompaniesannouncedmuchlargerthanexpectedwritedownsforsubprimerelatedassets.Thisledtoanumberofhighlevelresignations,includingtheCEOsofMerrillLynchandCitigroup.Theextentofthewritedownscaughtmarketsbysurprise,andledtofearsthatcompaniesareunderestimatingtheirlosses.Asaresult,USfinancialswereweakoverthemonth.Investorsalsobegantomoveoutofcreditproductsandcreditspreadswidened.在10月，幾大金融服務(wù)公司宣布了與次債有關(guān)的資產(chǎn)撥備，其幅度遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于預(yù)期值。這導(dǎo)致了一批公司高層的辭職，其中包括美林證券和花旗集團(tuán)的行政總裁。資產(chǎn)撥備的幅度令市場感到意外，并由此擔(dān)心許多公司低估了它們的損失。因此，美國金融板塊整月持續(xù)疲軟。投資者也開始撤離信用資產(chǎn)，致使信貸利差擴(kuò)大。VolatilityinfinancialmarketspromptedtheFedtocutinterestratesattheendofOctober.Howeverthishasnotbeenenoughtoappeaseequitymarkets,astherearelingeringconcernsthattheworstofthesub-primecrisisisnotover.Asmorebanksissueprofitwarningsandwritedowns,thereisagrowingfearthatcreditconditionswilltighten,hurtingdomesticconsumption(whichaccountsfortwo-thirdsofeconomicactivityintheUS).Weakconsumptioncouldinturnleadtoarecession.Thesameappliestothehousingsector,whichremainsindistress.Homesalesandconstructioncontinuetofall,andhousepriceshavealsostartedtodecline.AsmostUSconsumershavetheirwealthtiedupintheirhomes,furtherfallsinhousepricescouldaffectconsumeractivity.AnestimatedUS$300billionofsubprimemortgageloanswillberesettohigherinterestratesinthefollowing6months,andtheabilityofhomeownerstocontinuemakingpaymentswillbeimportant.Ifdefaultsinthisareaincrease,itwillleadtomorelossesforbanks,andfurthertighteningofcreditconditions.動蕩的金融市場促使美聯(lián)儲在10月底減息。但是這并不足以平復(fù)股票市場，因?yàn)槿藗円琅f懷有揮之不去的憂慮，擔(dān)心次債危機(jī)的最糟時刻還未結(jié)束。隨著越來越多的銀行宣布盈利警告及資產(chǎn)撥備，人們?nèi)找鎿?dān)心信貸條件將會變得更惡劣，并會殃及國內(nèi)消費(fèi)（占美國近三分之二的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動）。消費(fèi)疲弱又會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。這同樣適用于仍受困擾的房地產(chǎn)市場。成屋銷售和建筑業(yè)繼續(xù)走下坡路，房價也開始下降。由于大多數(shù)美國消費(fèi)者的財(cái)富集中在他們的住房上，進(jìn)一步下跌得房價可能會影響消費(fèi)活動。估計(jì)有3000億美元的次級抵押貸款將在之后的6個月被調(diào)高利率，而業(yè)主繼續(xù)支付房貸的能力將變得至關(guān)重要。如果壞賬增加，將導(dǎo)致銀行損失更大，并進(jìn)一步收緊信貸條件。Thusfar,theUSeconomyhasbeenremarkablyresilientandGDPgrowthin3Q07was3.9%.Employmentfiguresarestillsolid,andretailsalesremainhealthy.Corporateprofitsareslowing,butoverallgrowthremainspositive.Wethinkthatthenext3-6monthswillbecriticalindeterminingwhethertheUSeconomyachievesasoftorhardlanding.ThehopeintheUSisthatwithfurthereasingofinterestrates,solidexportgrowthtotherestoftheworldandcontinuingbusinessinvestmentactivity,theUSeconomymayavoidrecession.迄今為止，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍顯示出很強(qiáng)的彈性，07年第三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長速度為3.9%。就業(yè)率依舊穩(wěn)定，零售業(yè)保持健康運(yùn)行。公司利潤的增長速度在放緩，但總體態(tài)勢保持樂觀。我們認(rèn)為未來的3至6個月將是個關(guān)鍵時期，將決定美國經(jīng)濟(jì)取得軟著陸還是硬著陸。美國的希望在于，隨著利率進(jìn)一步下降、向世界其余地區(qū)的出口強(qiáng)勁增長以及商業(yè)投資活動保持下去，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會免于步入衰退。Growthintherestoftheworldismixed.Emergingeconomiescontinuetoperformstrongly,asclearlyseenbyChina’s3rdquarterGDPgrowthofover11%.EuropeisstartingtomoderatebutoverallremainsfirmandJapanwhichhasbeensluggishremainsaweaklinkintheglobalpicture.WebelievethatglobalgrowthcanwithstandaUSsoftlandingwithrelativelylittledamage,butglobalgrowthwillslowsharplyinaUSrecession.世界其余地區(qū)的增長態(tài)勢好壞參半。新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體繼續(xù)表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁，從中國第三季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長率超過11%就能清楚地看出來。歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)增長開始放緩，但整體仍保持堅(jiān)挺。而滯緩的日本經(jīng)濟(jì)就全球局勢來看仍是一個薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。我們認(rèn)為，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長能夠經(jīng)受住美國經(jīng)濟(jì)軟著陸并遭受相對較少的損失，但如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)生衰退，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長將大幅放緩。TheongoingriskaversioninequitymarketshasbenefitedUSandEuropeangovernmentbonds.Giventhatweexpectmorevolatilityintheshortterm,bondscanoutperform.However,therallyingovernmentbondshasmadetheirvaluationlessattractivethanbefore.Yieldsfor2-yearTreasurynoteshavenowfallento3.4%,andbondmarketshavepricedinfutureinterestratecuts.股票市場正在進(jìn)行的風(fēng)險規(guī)避活動使美國及歐洲的政府債券獲益?？紤]到我們預(yù)期在短期內(nèi)股市會有更多震蕩發(fā)生，債券應(yīng)該可以取得不俗表現(xiàn)。不過，政府債券的反彈使得其價值缺乏以往的吸引力。2年期的美國國債收益率已經(jīng)下跌到了3.4％，而債券市場已經(jīng)反映出未來利率的下降。TheUSDhascontinuedtodepreciate,ascreditproblemsandeconomicconcernsunfold.Thetrendintheweakerdollarislikelytocontinue,butitisunlikelytocollapsegivenitsstructuralpositionintheglobaleconomy,andtheabilityofcentralbankstopreventitfromgoingintofree-fall.WeexpectthatAsiancurrencieswouldcontinuetoappreciateagainsttheUSD,astheyadjusttoreflecttheirstrongerunderlyingfundamentals.Intheshortterm,theUSDcouldcontinuetodepreciateagainsttheGBPandEUR,butthesecurrencieslookincreasinglyexpensiveonvaluationterms.由于信用和經(jīng)濟(jì)問題的暴露，美元持續(xù)貶值。美元的疲軟很可能會持續(xù)下去，但由于它在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中的結(jié)構(gòu)性地位使得它不可能崩盤，同時借助中央銀行的能力，也會防止它自由下落。我們預(yù)期亞洲貨幣對美元匯率將繼續(xù)上升，從而反映它們更強(qiáng)大的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面。在短期內(nèi)，美元對英鎊和歐元可能繼續(xù)貶值，但這些貨幣的估值越來越貴。股票策略美國Weexpectconcernsoversubprimemortgagestocausesignificantvolatilityinfinancialmarketsinthenearterm.Furtherweaknessinthehousingsectorrepresentsarecessionaryrisk,asitcouldaffectconsumption.Howeverwethinkasoftlandingfortheeconomyisstillpossible,foranumberofreasons.Economicdataandemploymentremainresilient.Andcorporateprofit,thoughslowing,isstillpositive.Withfurthereasingofinterestrates,solidexportgrowthtotherestoftheworld,andcontinuingbusinessinvestmentactivity,theUSeconomymayavoidahardlanding.Valuationsarenotexpensive,and12monthforwardPEratiosareonthelowerendofthe10-yearhistoricalrange.However,weremainunderweightaswedonotconsiderthegrowthprofilefortheUSmarkettobeattractive.我們預(yù)計(jì)對于次級債的擔(dān)憂將在近期內(nèi)造成金融市場的大波動。房地產(chǎn)業(yè)的持續(xù)疲軟暴露出經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的風(fēng)險，因?yàn)樗赡軙绊懴M(fèi)。不過我們認(rèn)為由于種種原因，經(jīng)濟(jì)的軟著陸依舊可能實(shí)現(xiàn)。經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和就業(yè)率復(fù)蘇。而企業(yè)盈利增長雖然放緩，但仍向著積極方向發(fā)展。隨著利率進(jìn)一步下降、向世界其余地區(qū)的出口強(qiáng)勁增長以及商業(yè)投資活動保持下去，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會免于硬著陸。美國股市估值并不貴，未來12月的動態(tài)市盈率處于10年內(nèi)的低端。然而，我們?nèi)匀槐３直^，因?yàn)槲覀冋J(rèn)為美國市場的增長前景沒有足夠的吸引力。歐洲（英國除外）Europe’smacrobackdropremainssupportive,butgrowthissoftening.Businessconfidenceindicatorsareweakening,suggestingeconomicsentimentmayturndownthisyear.Thismaycreateamorechallengingenvironmentforcorporateearnings,weakeningthevaluationcaseforEurope.Inflationhasalsobeencreepingup,largelyduetotheriseinenergyprices,andmayhaveanultimateimpactonwagenegotiations.Valuationsremaincheaprelativetorecenthistory.Howeverturbulenceinfinancialmarketsasaresultofsub-primerelatedissuessuggestspotentialshorttermsoftnessinEuropeanequitymarkets.歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的宏觀背景良好，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長放緩。企業(yè)信心指數(shù)開始降低，說明今年經(jīng)濟(jì)信心可能下降。這可能會對公司盈利造成更具挑戰(zhàn)性的環(huán)境，使歐洲市場估值環(huán)境變糟。通貨膨脹率也在攀升，主要是由于能源價格上漲，這可能對工資協(xié)商產(chǎn)生最終影響。和近期水平作比較，估值仍相對便宜。然而次債市場相關(guān)問題引發(fā)的金融市場波動預(yù)示著歐洲股市短期有可能表現(xiàn)疲軟。英國DespitethemonetarysupportfromtheFederalReserve,datafromtheUShousingmarketremainspoorandconditionsappearunlikelytomateriallyimproveintheshort-term.Inspiteoftheeffortsofcentralbankstoboostliquidity,creditmarketsalsoremainextremelytightandinvestorsarecautiousaboutfurtherheavylossesfromtheworld’smajorinvestmentbanks.Onthepositiveside,UKcompaniesaregenerallyingoodhealth,supportedbystrongbalancesheetsandlargelystableearnings.Valuations,inanhistoricalcontext,appearattractiveandearningshavebeenrelativelyrobust,albeitpartlydisruptedbythevolatilityseeninthethirdquarter.TheUKmarketalsohasahighlevelofoverseasexposure,particularlyinAsiaandEmergingMarkets,whichshouldhelptosustainearningsshouldtheUKeconomybegintoslow.盡管得到了來自美聯(lián)儲的資金援助，美國房地產(chǎn)市場的數(shù)據(jù)仍然疲軟而且情況短期來看不會有實(shí)質(zhì)性的改善。不管各大央行注入流動性付出了多大努力，信貸市場仍然資金緊張，投資者對世界主要投行進(jìn)一步的大幅虧損仍然保持著警惕。積極的方面，英國公司基本上運(yùn)行健康，財(cái)務(wù)報表穩(wěn)健而且盈利增長穩(wěn)定。從歷史水平來看，估值還保持著吸引力，盈利相對來說是比較強(qiáng)勁的，盡管一定程度上受到三季度以來波動的影響。英國企業(yè)同時在海外也有大量的投資，尤其在亞洲和新興市場，這有助于在英國經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩時支撐盈利增長。日本EconomicgrowthinJapancontinuestobesluggish,andGDPgrowthexpectationscontinuetobereviseddownwards,onthebackofweakeconomicdata.Earningsmomentumhasalsobeenweakening.Deflationisstillanissue,andthisremainsaserioushindrancetoeconomicgrowth.Insuchanenvironment,theBankofJapanisnotlikelytotightenmonetarypolicy.WhiletheJPYhasappreciatedsignificantlythisyearwiththeunwindingofthecarrytrade,equityreturnshaveremaineddisappointingduetotheweakgrowthoutlook.Asthemarkethasbeenasignificantlaggard,itispossiblethatsectorrotationmayallowJapaneseequitiestooutperformintheshortterm.Akeyindicatorinthisregardwouldbetheperformanceofsmallcapstocks,whichtendtomoveaheadofabroaderrally.日本經(jīng)濟(jì)繼續(xù)疲軟，經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)乏善可陳，導(dǎo)致GDP增長預(yù)期被不斷下調(diào)。企業(yè)盈利增長勢頭也在放緩。通貨緊縮仍然是一個問題，嚴(yán)重阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。在這種環(huán)境下，日本央行不太可能緊縮貨幣政策。盡管由于套利交易解體，今年日元大幅度升值，股市回報卻仍舊讓人失望，這主要是由于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長前景暗淡。由于日本市場表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后，有可能板塊輪動效應(yīng)將導(dǎo)致日本股市短期內(nèi)取得超越性表現(xiàn)。一個關(guān)鍵性的指標(biāo)是小盤股的表現(xiàn)，這一板塊在大規(guī)模的反彈中往往是先行者。亞洲（日本除外）Asianmarketshaverunfairlyhardthisyear,andwemaycontinuetoseesomeprofittakingintheshortterm,asmarketstakeabreather.AsianequitymarketsarelikelytobevolatileifnewsfromtheUSisnegative;howeverregionalmarketsarebetterplacethaninpreviouscyclestocopewiththis.Macroeconomicandearningsmomentumremainverystrongfortheregion.CorporateearningsexpectationsinAsiahavebeenrevisedupwardsconsistentlyin2007.Consensusexpectationsareforlowdoubledigitearningsgrowth(14.9%for2007and10.9%for2008).Debtlevelsarelowandcashflowremainsfairlystrong.Moreimportantlydomesticdemandisbecomingincreasinglyimportant,fortheregion.Whileinflationarypressureisanissueforsomeeconomies,thegeneralinterestrateenvironmentremainsrelativelybenign.Theregionalsobenefitsfromstronginvestmentgrowth,savingsandliquidity.Valuationsmayhaveriseninrecentmonths,butremainattractiveagainstdevelopedmarketssuchasJapan.亞洲市場今年已經(jīng)大幅度上漲，短期內(nèi)我們會繼續(xù)看到獲利套現(xiàn)，市場要喘口氣。如果美國方面的消息負(fù)面，亞洲股市可能會出現(xiàn)震蕩，不過這一區(qū)域的市場相對以往而言能更好地應(yīng)對。該地區(qū)的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)和盈利勢頭仍然非常強(qiáng)勁。2007年亞洲公司盈利預(yù)期被不斷調(diào)高。一致的預(yù)期是盈利增長將是較小的雙位數(shù)（2007年是14.9%，2008年是10.9%）。債務(wù)水平較低而現(xiàn)金流依然充裕。國內(nèi)消費(fèi)將變得更為重要。盡管某些經(jīng)濟(jì)中可能存在通脹壓力，總體而言利率環(huán)境依然溫和。該地區(qū)還受益于強(qiáng)勁的投資增長、儲蓄和流動性。估值在近幾個月可能已經(jīng)上升，但相對于發(fā)達(dá)市場比如說日本市場來說仍然有吸引力。中國Althoughfurtherinterestratehikesarelikely,webelievetheimpactwouldbeminimalasthemagnitudewouldlikelybesmallandmainlybetargetedatabsorbingexcessliquidity.Weexpectinflationconcernstoeaseasfoodpricessoftenin4Q07.Withamorebenignpolicyandmacroeconomicoutlook,themarketcanmovehigher.ChinashareslistedinHongKongarestilltradingatsteepdiscountsof41%ontheaveragetotheirAsharecounterpartswhichwebelieveshouldnarrow.However,valuationshavemoveduprapidlywhichmaytriggerprofittakingandleadtohighervolatility.盡管進(jìn)一步加息是可能的，我們?nèi)哉J(rèn)為其影響有限，因?yàn)榧酉⒎葧容^小而且其目標(biāo)將是吸收多余的流動性。預(yù)計(jì)食品價格在07年第四季度將下降從而緩解通脹壓力。政策趨于溫和而宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)前景良好，市場可能會進(jìn)一步上漲。香港上市的中國股票仍在以比A股平均低41%的折價進(jìn)行交易，這一折價幅度將會收窄。不過，估值上升的速度很快，這可能引發(fā)獲利回吐從而導(dǎo)致大幅度震蕩。中國香港Weremainpositiveonthefundamentalsofthemarketinthenext12months.Theeconomywillbenefitfromthegovernment’srecentlyproposedtaxcutsandinfrastructuredevelopments.Weexpectrisinghouseholdincomeandfallingunemploymentratesinto2008.However,valuationoftheequitymarketisbecomingstretchedrelativetocash,itshistorictrends,andgrowthprospects,althoughampleliquidityshouldprovideshorttermsupport.Giventhecurrentliquidityconditions,werecommendstayinginthemarketbutadoptingadefensivestrategyofrotationalbuying,takingprofitsonovervaluedstocksandswitchingintoqualitylaggards.Intermsofsectors,welikepropertydevelopers,consumerandselectivebanks.對該市場未來12個月的表現(xiàn)我們依然看好。經(jīng)濟(jì)將會受益于政府近日提出的減稅方案和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施開發(fā)計(jì)劃。預(yù)計(jì)2008年居民家庭收入將繼續(xù)增長，失業(yè)率進(jìn)一步降低。不過，與現(xiàn)金收益、歷史水平以及增長前景比較，股市估值正在變得昂貴，盡管充裕的流動性將在短期內(nèi)提供支撐。鑒于當(dāng)前的流動性條件，我們建議留在市場中，但采取更為防御性的輪動建倉策略，套現(xiàn)估值過高的股票，轉(zhuǎn)向優(yōu)質(zhì)低估個股。就板塊而言，我們更看好房