實戰(zhàn)-什么是趨勢跟蹤

趨 ？（金融河譯Whatistrendfollowingtrading?VanTharpoffers:"Let's"Let'sbreakdowntheterm'trendfollowing'intoitscomponents. part ,thentosellathigher ,then 。。volatility.Trendtradersuseaninitialriskrulethatdeterminespositionvolatility.Trendtradersuseaninitialriskrulethatdeterminespositionatatthetimeofentry.Thismeansyouknowexactlyhowmuchtobuyorsellbasedhowhow ofofyourinitialtrade.Ontheotherhand,adversepricemovementsmayleadto。issignificantlyhigherthantheaveragelossper。 勢的逆轉(zhuǎn)勢的逆轉(zhuǎn) singfadorhyped-upsecretboxeither.Beyondmererules,thehumanelementiscore.IttakesdisciplineTrendfollowingseekstocapturethemajorityofamarkettrend,upordown,forprofit.Itaimsforhugeprofitsinallmajorassetclasses--stocks,ETFs,LEAPS?options,bonds,currencies,futuresandcommodities.性的因素 性的因素 商 和Thinkofitthisway:trendfollowingistheonlystrategythatyoucouldtradeonadesertisland.Aslongasyouhavemarketdataeachday,everythingelseisuseless(i.e.CNBC,news,fundamentals,brokeropinions,talkingheads,etc.)formakingthebigmoney.Keepthatthoughtinmindasyoureadon.可以這么想可以這么想趨 Backstory(fromMichaelBackstory(fromMichaelCovel)趨 When editionofmybook'TrendFollowing'hitthestreetsIhadhopedtoassemble comprehensivelookattrendfollowingtrading.Thatgoalwasrealized.HowdidIknow?Since editionof'TrendFollowing',Ihavemet，leadmetothelikesofNobelPrizewinnerHarryMarkowitzandhedgefundmanagersBoonePickensandDavidHarding,butitdid.，當(dāng)當(dāng) 范例讓趨 Validationaside,OctoberandNovember2008werethemosthistoricmarketsincetheGreatDepression.Mostpeople,mostmutualfunds,andmosthedgelosthuge.Ithaslongbeensaidthat"geniusisleverageinarisingPerformancenumbersfortoptrendfollowingtradersforOctober2008alonerangedfrom+5percentto+40percent.Makingthatmuchinonemonthwhentherestoftheworldwaslosingbigtimewasnoteworthytosaytheleast. 20085%40%不等。這樣的收益在舉世悲情彌漫中尤顯得超脫凡俗，不Ill.Tradinghotstocksadecadeago,Mr.EberlingotburnedonpickslikeKremeandTyco.In2007hegotbackintostocks,onlytotakeanotherhit."Having "Idon'thavetrustin askedAmericanshowmuchtheytrustedbankersandotherWallStreetleadersofof1to5,with1meaningnotrustatall,theratingaveragedapaltryreducetheriskofthefinancialchallengesthecountryisfacingnow."Ona ，中信”）信”） Forgetstockmarketsonlygoingup.WhentheFedrigsratestobooststockstounsustainablelevels,bubbles,bubblesandmorepoppedbubblesarenormal.Socanyoureallystomachyourlingyouto,'justhanginthere'?MutualLet'sfaceit,mutualfunds'buyandhold(hope)schemewillleaveLet'sfaceit,mutualfunds'buyandhold(hope)schemewillleaveyou2020yearsfromnowjustlikeJapan.Guaranteed.Evenduringthebullmarket90%mutualfundmanagersfailed.Achildguessingcouldhavebeatentheoverpaidsuits.takesyourmoney.讓讓 TheTheStart(fromMichaelCovel)趨 SixteenyearsagoIhadalife-changingexperience.Iteventuallyledtothecreationofthenowfamoussite ,thebestsellingtradingbooks'Trend aryway.Itstartedwithmeasapoliticalsciencegraduateontheoutsideway.Itstartedwithmeasapoliticalsciencegraduateontheoutsidelookingbigwinnersusetrendfollowingtomakeupanddownacrossallmarkets.Theybigwinnersusetrendfollowingtomakeupanddownacrossallmarkets.Theyhorribleassumptionswhenaskingthese 趨 的。 中立于 DoDowinningtradersallhavesomespecialDotheyhaveaspecialinborngeneordivineDotheyhavetheinnatetalentofachildDotheyhavesomeinsideDotheyhavetheabilitytopredictDotheyalwayshaveadegreeinfinanceorDotheyhavehugestarting 他們他們 么Thereisoneanswerandit'sthesameanswer:No.Therealityofbigmoneytradingisfarsimpler.Inmycommunicationswithgreattraderscertaintruthshavebeen Innatetalentisoverrated.ThereisnomagicaltalentthatmadetheTurtles,forexample,successful. Intensepracticeandpersistenceoverandoveragainisthereasongreattradersmakemillions,notI.Q.Infact,E.Q.ismoreimportant. ItisnocoincidencethatmanytoptradershavetheirrootsinthetradingincubatorCommoditiesCorporation.RichardDennis,asubjectofmysecondbook,alsoprovedhowimportantcoachingistolong-termsuccess. 商，而商，而 Successfulcoachingisnotaboutmotivationalspeeches,butrathermakemistakestolearn.TheactoffailingandfixingiswhenthelearningWewatchKimKardashian'srealityshow.WesitontheInternetand atWewatchKimKardashian'srealityshow.WesitontheInternetand atthesametime.Everythingisnow.Faster.Easier.Thereisno 沒有。。Mae,Mae,WashingtonMutualandtheBernardMadoffswindlearegreatexamplesof。andfiretheirbrokers.Dothatandthereis。 國 房地美（FannieMae） 是However,forgetget-rich-quickschemes.Youwillhavetoputinthework,timeanddedication.Howcanwehelpyoutomakethebigmoney?Wemodeledthetradingmethodsandbehaviorsofgreattrendfollowingtradersinourtradingsystems. Thatmodelinghasenabledustoteachtheirmoneymakingtechniquesandbehaviorswithunparralleledresults.Thesearetradingmethodsthatregardlessofyourgender, beforeyou 投資者 有一個14年記錄的成功典范。數(shù)年來 接師從趨 Everyonelearnsdifferentlyandourindividualsupportallowsyoutoconnectoursupportteamatyourtradinglevel.Allsuccessfulentrepreneurs,executivesandathleteshavecoachesandmentors.Notradingmethodisbeyond，Ifyouhaveadeepdesiretomakemoneyandtheabilitytofollowaproven,step-by-stepsystem,youhaveachance.Sowhatisatrendfollowingsystem?， 那么 趨 AGreattrendfollowers'successcomesfromthedisciplinetofollowtheirrulesnomatterwhat.Ourtrendfollowingtradingsystemsanswerthe5critical 并的趨 Whatmarketdoyoubuyorsellatany。Howmuchofamarketdoyoubuyorsellatany。WhendoyoubuyorsellaWhendoyougetoutofalosingWhendoyougetoutofawinning 操作 何時進(jìn)何時進(jìn) 操作HowHow oneycanbemadeasatrendfollower?Fortuneshavebeenmade.JohnHenry,whoboughtTheBostonRedSoxbaseballteamasbutoneexample,madehis$700milliontobuytheteamasatrendfollowingtrader.Whatareperformancenumberexamplesoverthedecades?Thereturnsarehuge. 之巨Tomakethebigmoneyyouneedaplanforallcontingenciesinalltypesofmarkets.(like(likeouralltoofrequentmarketcrashes),systematictrendtradersremainwhatAppleis ng.Youmustknowcropreportdetails.YoumustknowwhatAppleis ng.Youmustknowcropreportdetails.Youmustknowmining.YoumustknowaboutOPEC.Allfalse.Considerthisexcerptfrommybook"TheCompleteTurtleTrader": "TomWillishadlearnedlongagofromDenniswhyprice,theunderpinningofDonchian'srule,wastheonlytruemetrictotrust.He"Everythingknownisreflectedintheprice.Icouldneverhopetocompeterevenuesfor2005],whohassoybeanagentsscouringtheglobeknowingthereistoknowdifferentthanbonds,butnotdifferentenoughthatI'dhavetotradedifferentthanbonds,butnotdifferentenoughthatI'dhavetotradeThat'sabsurd.We'retradingmobpsychology.We'renottradingcorn,soybeans,orS&P's.We'retradingnumbers."大 usabreak.Iftherewas usabreak.Iftherewas endofthedaytherearenosecretsorinsiderinformationneededtomakethebigmoney.Thereisonlypricelessinformationyoudon'tyethave:如果沒 ，We，Weteachhowtobereadyformarketstogoup,downorWeshowhowtotradeforout-sizedabsolutereturnsonallNoeducatedguesses'aboutwhattodoorchartThinkprobabilities,notFundamentalfactorsareManyofthethingsyoumightthinkmattermostmatterYouwillgobroketryingtotradewithyourWinnersknowhowmuchtheycanloseatallLosersmistakenlydreamabouthowmuchtheycan 如果盲目如果盲目 暴利。。issolid.Ourtrainingincludeseverythingyouneedtogetupandgoingasasystematictrendfollowingtrader.Youwilllearn:。。 ProprietaryandprovenwinningsystemswithclearWheretopl