投資銀行在產(chǎn)業(yè)中的應(yīng)用 課件

L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\1InvestmentBankingViewoftheUtilityIndustry21September2005投資銀行在產(chǎn)業(yè)中的應(yīng)用

L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Pers1TableofContentsL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\2Section1UtilitySectorUpdateSection2PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivitySection3EnergyPolicyActSection4TransmissionEnvironmentUpdateAppendixABioTimothyR.SchwarzTableofContentsL:\UTILITIES_2Section1UtilitySectorUpdateL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\4Section1UtilitySectorUpdate3UtilitySectorUpdateABraveNewWorldofGrowthisEmerging…L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\5Growthstocksarestartingtomakeacomebackafter5consecutiveyearsoftrailingvaluestocksYear-to-dateperformancesupportsourview,asgrowth,measuredbytheBarraindexes,hasmarginallyoutperformedvalue.MoretellingcouldbethatgrowthhastriumphedovervalueduringeachofthelastsixmonthsHowever,unlikepastreboundsingrowthstocks,weexpectaGARPorientationtodominateduringthiscycleEarningsgrowthanddividendgrowthhavereconnectedafterthelongabsencethatdefinedthe1990s1CorrelationBetweenDividendGrowthandEarningsGrowthSource S&P,ThomsonFinancial,MorganStanleyResearchSource S&P,ThomsonFinancial,MorganStanleyResearchSource Ibbotson,MorganStanleyResearchIndexofRelativeStrengthofGrowthvs.ValueEffectivenessSource MorganStanleyResearchApr77Oct84Jul94NiftyFiftyPeakEnergy

SectorPeakKuwait/

RecessionTech2000GrowthValueDéjàVu:WeThinkGrowthInvestorsAreLookingatSomethingAkintothe1994-1997PeriodS&P500GrowthRelativetoS&P500ValueAnnualTotalReturnGrowthValueUtilitySectorUpdateABraveN4UtilitySectorUpdateUtilitySectorSensitivitytoInterestRatesNotes1.ForecastasofAugust8,2005;allforecastvaluesarefortheendoftheindicatedperiodL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\6WiththeFedtightening10consecutivetimes,U.S.long-terminterestrateshavenotriseninlinewithexpectationsU.S.utilitieshavenotbeenassensitivetointerestratemovementsashistoricallyobservedMorganStanleyforecaststhatthe10and30yearUSTreasurieswillreach4.75%and5.0%,respectively,bytheendoftheyear2Source FactSetandMorganStanleyResearchS&PUtilityIndexFY1P/Eand30-YearTreasuryYieldP/E(x) Yield(%)Source BloombergandMorganStanleyResearchandTheWallStreetJournalInterestRateOutlook(1)%UtilitySectorUpdateUtilityS5L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\7UtilitySectorUpdateUtilitySectorValuationRelativetoBroaderMarket3Currentvaluationsarenotcompellingasthesectoristradingclosetoonestandarddeviationaboveitslong-termaverageonmostmetricsValuationsalsoareunattractiverelativetothebroadermarketUtilitysectortradingat107%oftheS&P500onaforwardP/Ebasis,abovethe5-yearhistoricalaverageof74%Source FactSet,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchSource FactSet,Bloomberg,MorganStanleyResearchNotesMorganStanleyResearchdataasofSeptember6,2005MarketdataasofSeptember6,2005RelativeValuation(S&PUtilityIndexvs.S&P500Index)L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Pers6UtilitySectorUpdateInvestorPerceptionoftheUtilitySectorL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\8MorganStanleyrecentlyconductedaninformalsurveyofthetop25investorsintheutilitysectoraskingtwofundamentalquestionsoncurrentvaluationlevelsandtheirsustainability4Question#1:“Theoutperformanceoftheutilityindustryrelativetoothersectorsforthepast12-18monthshassurprisedmanyintheinvestmentcommunity,whatdoyouthinkaretheprincipalfactorssupportingthisphenomenon?”MacroFactorsInterestrateenvironmentRisk-adjustedgrowthrelativetobroadermarketLackofdirectionforbroadereconomyTaxlawchangesSectorSpecificFactorsCommoditypriceenvironmentConstructiveregulatoryenvironmentPUHCArepealQuestion#2:“Lookingoutoverthenext12-24months,doyouthinkthisoutperformancewillbesustainable?”MacroFactorsInterestrateenvironment(Fedactionsandshapeoftheyieldcurve)Growthinothersectors(i.e.,alternativeinvestmentopportunities)Economy(slow-down=sustainabilityofoutperformance/growth=underperformance)SectorSpecificFactorsSpecialsituationstoriescanonlyturnaroundonceM&A/strategicenvironmentRegulatoryenvironment/abilityto“passthrough”coststocustomerUtilitySectorUpdateInvestor7UtilitySectorUpdateAnalyzingUtilitiesBasedonCommodityExposureL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\9Utilitieswithcommoditygrowth“kickers”continuetobeinfavor,however,fullyregulatednameshavealsoperformedwelloverthepastsixmonths52006EP/E(x)Source FactSetYTDSharePriceChange(%)Source FactSetLowCommodityExposureHighLowCommodityExposureHigh(1)(6)(2)(3)(4)(7)(5)(8)(6)(2)(3)(4)(7)(5)NotesIncludesRRI,NRG,DYNandCPNIncludesD,TXU,WMB,EPIncludesDUK,FPL,CEG,SRE,DTE,TEIncludesEXC,ETR,EIX,AEE,PNMIncludesFE,AEP,PPL,CIN,DPLIncludesPNW,PSD,IDA,AVAIncludesSO,PCG,ED,PGN,XEL,POM,NUIncludesRRI,NRGandDYN.CPNwasexcludedbecauseitsYTDsharepricechangewas-25.4%UtilitySectorUpdateAnalyzing8ProjectedBetavs.ForwardP/E0.4=LowRisk/1.0=HighRiskBusinessProfilevs.ForwardP/E2=LowRisk/7=HighRiskUtilitySectorUpdateDoesEPSGrowthMatter?L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\10Giventhespottedtrackrecordoftheutilitysectoroverthepastthreeyears,investorsarelargelydiscountingEPSgrowthratesgreaterthan5%Takingongreaterbusinessrisk,inthesearchforincrementalEPSgrowth,isnotnecessarilybeingrewardedappropriatelybytheinvestmentcommunityforthecommensurateriskThemarketdoesnotseesignificantvalueindistinguishingbetween4-6%growthforacoupleofyearperiodvs.2-3%long-termgrowthwhenvisibilityislimitedtotheregulatorytreatmentofratebaseandtimingofrateincreases6EstimatedGrowthRatesvs.2006EP/ESource FactSet,IBESProjectedBetaIBES2006EP/ESources FactSet,IBESandS&PCreditReportsIBES2006EP/ES&PBusinessProfileRatingSources FactSet,IBESandBarraProjectedBetavs.ForwardP/E9UtilitySectorUpdateWhatistheMarketRewarding?L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\11TherecontinuestobeanegativerelationshipbetweengrowthandP/EmultiplesMarketisskepticalofUtilitiesachievingstatedgrowthobjectivesabove5%Premiumisbeingplacedonlowerrisk,lowgrowthstrategies(i.e.,sticktocorecompetencies)Themarketisalsoplacingpremiumvaluationsoncompaniesthatarereturningcashtoshareholdersiftheydon’thaveauseforitintheircorebusinessHighdividendpayingstocksarebeingrewardedbythemarketConclusion:Any“growth”investmentsfaceahighhurdlerateforinvestors7Source FactSetandIBESSource FactSetandIBESIBES2006EP/EPayoutRatio(%)IBES2006EP/EIBESLTGrowthRate(%)…EstimatedGrowthRatesAreNotNecessarilyRewardedHigherDividendPayoutsAreStillBeingRewarded…UtilitySectorUpdateWhatist10Section2PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\13Section2PerspectivesonRecen11L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\14PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityKeyObservationsNotesIncludesglobalannouncedtransactionsof$100MMormore;excludesterminatedtransactionsAnnualamountsbasedonmeanofpercentagepremiumspaidoverunaffectedstockpricewhichisdefinedasstockprice4weekspriortotheearliestofthedealannouncement;announcementofacompetingbid;andmarketrumorsbefore31March2005Includesallannouncedbidsirrespectiveofconsiderationoffered(i.e.,includesallcash,allstockandhybridbids).ExcludesoutliersM&Aactivityin2005continuestoberobustYTDannouncedglobalvolumeup35%oversameperiodin20048Source ThomsonFinancialasof9Sept2005PremiumsPaidHaveComeDownSignificantlyM&APremiumsPaidforGlobalPublicTargets(1990–YTD)(%)(2)(3)Source ThomsonFinancialValuationlevelsprovidesupporttothecurrentM&AenvironmentAcquisitionpremiumsaredownasbuyersdemonstrateincreaseddisciplineVolumeandAverageDealSizeupSignificantly(1)Volume($Bn) Avg.TransactionSize($MM)L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Pers12L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\15PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityTheMarketIsMoreReceptivetoM&ANoteAftermarketperformancecomparedtoacquiror’sunaffectedstockprice(1-daypriortoannouncement)9MedianAftermarketPerformanceoftheAcquiror’sStockPriceFollowingAnnouncement(1)Largest20AnnouncedDealsintheU.S.perYear(1999–YTD)—Change(%)Source ThomsonFinancialasof9Sept2005ImprovedmarketreceptivitytoannouncedtransactionsMedianAftermarketPerformanceoftheAcquiror’sStockPriceFollowingAnnouncement(1)Largest20AnnouncedDealsintheU.S.perYear(1999–YTD)—Change(%)Source ThomsonFinancialasof9Sept2005L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Pers13PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityNotesBasedonunaffectedpricesasof5/6/2005,12/15/2004,and5/23/2005,forDuke/Cinergy,Exelon/PSEG,andScottishPower,respectivelyAggregateValuewithoutsecuritizeddebtis$25Bn;EV/2005EEBITDAwithoutsecuritizeddebtis10.4xBasedonequityresearchestimatesLTMP/E(March’05)is20.5xLTMEV/EBITDA(March’05)is8.6xL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\1610(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(3)(3)Priceperformancesinceannouncement(4)(5)(2)(2)ComparisonofRecentM&ATransactionsKeyMergerStatisticsPerspectivesonRecentStrateg14L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\17PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityEmergenceofAlternativeSourcesofCapitalNoteTransactionsgreaterthan$400MM.IncludestransactionswithU.S.basedsellerorbuyerFinancialsponsorsandhedgefundshaveemergedasanincreasinglyimportantpoolofcapitalProliferationof$1Bn+fundsConvergenceofhedgefundsandprivateequityGrowthinnumberandsizeofalternativeinvestmentfundsdrivenbysearchforoutperformanceinlow-returnenvironmentTraditionalstrategiesgeneratinglower-returnprospects11FinancialSponsorActivityas%ofTotalU.S.M&AVolume(1)% #ofdealsSource 1996–2004ThomsonFinancialGrowthinGlobalHedgeFunds,1996–2004Asset($Bn) NumberofFundsSource HFRreportL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Pers15PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityFinancialPlayerActivityinthePowerSectorNewFinancialPlayersEntertheProjectFinanceMerchantEnergySector...L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\18Notallfinancialplayersarethesame.Thoseactivelyinvolvedinthepowersectorinclude:AmixofprivateequitypartnershipsandfundsCommercialbanksthathavereluctantlybecomeownersthroughforeclosuresHedgefundsthathaveenteredthesectorbytradingdistresseddebtandequityFinancialinstitutionsseekinglong-term,stableannuity-likereturns,suchaspensionfundsornewlyformedinfrastructurefundsInvestmentbankslookingtoexpandtheircommoditypositions12PerspectivesonRecentStrateg16PerspectivesonRecentStrategicActivityCalBearEnergyMarketingandTradingVentureL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\19OnSeptember8th,BearStearnsandCalpineannouncedtheformationofanewenergymarketingandtradingventurefocusedonphysicalnaturalgasandpowertrading13Overview

CalBearEnergyLP(“CalBear”)100%ownedbyBearStearnsBearStearnswillguaranteeapprovedCalBeartransactionsActivelymanagedriskandtradinglimitsCalpineMerchantServicesCompany(“CMSC”)100%ownedbyCalpineCalpine,throughCMSCwillretainCESemployeesandinfrastructureCMSCwillactasagentforCalBearandCESCalpinewillretainalleconomicsfromitsgenerationassetsCalBearwillprovideCESwitha$350MMcreditintermediationagreementReducescashcollateralpositionNetsgaspurchasesandpowersalesLimitedtotransactionslessthan61daysoutCalBearthird-partyenergyservicesprofitssplit50/5050%toCMSCasaservicefeeTransactionStructure

BusinessOpportunityFragmentedindustrywiththousandsofassetownersLoad-servingentitiesNon-utilitygeneratorsRetailaggregatorsIndustrialsNaturalgasproducersPipelinesCalBeartoprovidetheexpertisetooptimizeassetsEnergymarketpricevolatilitycreatesinterestfromprofessionalinvestorsandendusersMarketinefficienciesandarbitrageopportunitiesCalpineCorporationTransactionsRELATEDtoCalpineAssetsDistributionofProfitsServicesFees$350MMCreditIntermediationAgreementforPower&GasTradesAroundCalpineAssetsServicesServiceFeeEqualto50%ofCalBearProfits100%OwnershipCalpineEnergyServices,L.P.(CES)BearStearnsCompaniesInc.TransactionsNOTRELATEDtoCalpineAssetsCalBearEnergyLP(CalBear)CalpineMerchantServicesCompany(CMSC)CPNStockPrice($/share)Source FactsetSept.8thAnnouncement1-Aug10-Aug19-Aug30-Aug12-SeptPerspectivesonRecentStrateg17Section3EnergyPolicyActL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\21Section3EnergyPolicyActL:\U18EnergyPolicyActTheEnergyPolicyActOverviewofPUHCARepealL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\2214TherepealofPUHCAintheEnergyActwillfacilitateM&AactivityintheutilityindustryTheSEC’straditionalroleinreviewingM&Aproposalshasbeenremoved,ashastherequirementforutilitycombinationstobecontiguousorinterconnectedHowever,anincreaseinM&Aactivityisnotassured,asstateapprovalforM&AwillstillberequiredandbothFERCandthestateshavebeengrantedadditionalauthorityHowthatauthorityisimplementedwillbecriticaltofutureconsolidationintheindustryItisourviewthatPUHCArepealwillincreasestrategicactivityinthesectorovertime,however,regulatoryhurdlesintheutilityindustrywillcontinuetorepresentobstaclestomergersandacquisitionsStatecommissionshave,andwillcontinuetorepresenthurdles,particularlytoacquisitionsbyentitiesnotalreadyintheutilitybusiness(e.g.rejectionoftheTPG/PortlandGeneralandKKR/Unisourcetransactions)FERCcanbeexpectedtoapplyitsmergerguidelinesrigorouslytoprotectconsumersfromtheanticompetitiveeffectsofutilitymergersandacquisitionsthatwouldpermittheexerciseofhorizontalorverticalmarketpowerInaddition,holdingcompanieswillbesubjecttoenhancedinformationreportingtobothFERCandstateutilityregulatorstofacilitaterateregulationandprotectionofratepayersfromabusivecompanytransactionsDespiteitsenhancedregulatoryrole,FERC’soversightshouldnotbenearlyasintrusiveaswastheSEC’sunderPUHCAThenewlegislation,whichwillbeimplementedthroughFERCrulemaking,appearstolimitthescopeofFERC’sreviewtoanti-trustrelatedandcrosssubsidizationissuesratherthanthewide-rangingreviewrequiredbytheSECunderPUHCAMoreover,congresshaslimitedFERC’smergerreviewprocessto180days(absentashowingofgoodcause)instrikingcontrasttotheopen-endedSECprocessinwhichsomeutilitymergerssimplydiedfromSECinactionAsaconsequence,electricandgasutilitiesmaybenewlyvulnerabletostrategicapproachesandmayhaveincreasedpressuretoperformfinanciallyandthereforemayincreasinglylooktoacquisitionsasameanstogrowandimprovefinancialperformancethroughthepotentialsynergiesderivedfromconsolidationEnergyPolicyActTheEnergyPo19EnergyPolicyActTheEnergyPolicyActPotentialImplicationsofPUHCARepealL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\23Themarketisstillthedrivingfactorbehindtransactions,buttheEnergyActremovessomeobstaclesthathavehistoricallystoodinthewayofeconomicallysoundM&Atransactions15NewentrantsFinancialplayers,foreignentitiesandnon-utilityenergycompaniesthathavehistoricallybalkedatsubjectingthemselvestoregulationunderPUHCAConstructionortechnologycompanies(notmerelyBechtelorGE,butpurveyorsofcleancoaltechnology,transmissionorevennewnuclearfacilities)cannowtakeanequityinterestinprojectstheybuildordesignNewacquirersUtilitiesinstrongfinancialpositionsthatarenotcontiguoustomanyotherutilities(e.g.thoseinFlorida),aswellasthoseinhighlyintegratedpoolsorRTOs(e.g.,PJM),maybeparticularlywellplacedforincreasedM&AactivityNewtargetsSmallandmediumsizedutilitieswilllikelyenjoyabroaderrangeofpotentialacquirersTransmissionconsolidationAutilitywhichknowshowtooperateacomplexelectrictransmissionnetworkcannowownelectrictransmissionacrossthecountry,withoutregardtointegrationofthosesystems,orindistantstateswheretheycannotbeaccusedofmanipulatingtransmissiontobenefittheirownnativegenerationRestructuringOpportunities“Flatutilities”thathaveoperationsinseveralstatesandnon-utilitysubsidiarieswillbeabletorestructureasholdingcompanieswithseparatestateutilitiesandnon-utilitybusinessesheldapartfromtheutilityownershipchainwithouthavingtoregisterunderPUHCA(suchastructuremaysimplifystateregulatoryissues)EnergyPolicyActTheEnergyPo20Section4TransmissionEnvironmentUpdateL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\25Section4TransmissionEnvironm21TransmissionEnvironmentUpdateTheEnergyPolicyActTransmissionImplicationsL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\26TheEnergyActadvancestheobjectiveofintegratingregionalmarketsforwholesalepowerbyensuringgeneratoraccesstoincreasedinvestmentinandstreamlinedoperationsofthenationaltransmissiongrid16KeyProvisionsCarriesforwardtheintegrationofthenationaltransmissiongridinitiatedbyEnergyPolicyActof1992,removingtheremainingconstraintsonindustryintegrationimposedbythePublicUtilityHoldingCompanyActof1935(PUHCA)andgivingFERCauthorityitlackedunderthe1992Acttointegratefederalandstateutilitiesintoanopen-accessnationaltransmissionsystemDesignedtofomentinvestmentintransmissioninfrastructure.GrantsFERCtherighttoissueconstructionpermitsandcoordinateenvironmentalapprovalsfortransmissionprojectsdeemedbytheSecretaryofEnergytobeinthenationalinterestThe2005Actalsograntstaxandtariffincentivesforinvestmentintransmissioninfrastructure,andseekstoimprovethefunctioningofthenationaltransmissiongridbyrequiringthatitsowners,operatorsandusersadheretofederalreliabilitystandardsImplicationsfortheUtilitySectorAsregionalpowermarketsbecomeincreasinglyintegrated,pricesshouldtrendupwardinlower-costregionswherenuclearandcoal-firedgeneratorspredominate,suchastheMidwest,whilecomingunderdownwardpressureinregionssuchastheMid-Atlantic,wherehigher-costgas-firedgenerationsetsthepriceOff-peakpowerprices,whicharesetbycoalintheMidwestbutincreasinglybygas-firedgeneratorsintheMid-Atlantic,shouldbeparticularlyaffectedAsinothercommoditymarkets,thebeneficiariesofthesetrendswillbethelowest-costsuppliersInparticular,asmarketintegrationcausesoff-peakpricesinMidwesternpowerpricestorise,base-loadgeneratorsinthesemarketsshouldenjoyamarkedimprovementingenerationgrossmarginAmongtheprimarybeneficiariesoftheregionalintegrationofpowermarkets,therefore,willbeutilitieswithlarge,unregulatednucleargenerationfleets:companieslikeExelon,Dominion,FirstEnergy,EntergyandConstellationTransmissionEnvironmentUpdat22TransmissionEnvironmentUpdateStrategicTrendsinTransmissionFERCGivesUtilitiesIncentivestoSellTransmission…L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\27GiventhesigningoftheEnergyPolicyActandrecentdevelopmentswithrespecttotransmissionassets,webelievestrategicactivityinthetransmissionsectorwillaccelerateoverthenext6-12months17Federalregulators,namelyFERCandtheDepartmentofEnergy,havenotedadeclineintransmissioninvestment,andrecognizethatareversalofthispatternisneededtoimprovereliability,reduceblackoutsandlowerthecostofelectricityTheDOEestimatesthat$50-100billionofinvestmentisrequiredtomodernizethetransmissiongridFERChasbeensupportiveofthecreationofindependenttransmissioncompaniessuchasITC,andhasawardeda100bpsbonusROEtoencouragethemInapprovingITC’sIPO,FERChasshownitssupportforindependenttransmissionbusinesses,astheyfallonlyunderFERC’sjurisdiction,anddonothavetoseekcostrecoveryfromstateregulatorswhomayhavedifferentagendasFERCrecentlyproposedpolicychangestofurtherencourageelectricutilitiestoselltransmissionassets,statingthatthecurrentpolicyhasledtotoofewdivestituresPolicysetinJanuary2003allowstransmissioncompaniesindependentofutilitiestochargehigherratesfortheuseoftheirtransmissionsystemsProposedchangewouldallowthehigherratesevenwhenautilityretainsastakeinthetransmissioncompany(utilityownershiplimitedto5%ofvotingcontroland49%ofeconomicinterest)Combinedwithotherincentives,anindependentcompanymayqualifyforareturnashighas15%onnewtransmissionlines,comparedwithabout12%foratypicalutilityInaddition,recenttaxbillallowsutilitiestodefertaxesonprofitsfromthesaleoftransmissionsystemsforeightyearsTransmissionEnvironmentUpdat23TransmissionEnvironmentUpdateStrategicTrendsinTransmissionCaseStudy:ITCHoldingsCorp.$331MMIPO(1)OnJuly25,2005,MorganStanley,withLehmanandCSFB,pricedthe$330.6MMIPOofITCHoldingsat$23/share$57.5MMprimaryshares$273.1MMsecondarysharesIPOpricedabovethefilingrangeof$19-21Bookwasover17xoversubscribedImplied2005EP/Eof25.5xonafullydistributedbasisDividendyieldof4.6%atpricingand4.0%onafullydistributedbasisSource DealAxis;MorganStanleyNotesTotalIPOproceedsincludeoverallotmentOverallotmentoptionof1.875MMsharesconsistsof100%secondarysharesAllocationSummary18TransactionOverviewITCpricedat$23.00pershare--$2.00abovetheoriginalfilingrangeof$19-21InvestorswereprimarilyattractedtoITC'suniquebusinessmodel,combinationofhighgrowthpotentialanddividendyield,earningsvisibility(automaticraterecoverythroughAttachmentOmechanism),attractiverateofreturnandexperiencedmanagementteamAnextensive10-daymarketingprogramwasundertakenbymanagement,including39one-on-ones,12two-on-ones,2three-on-ones,6conferencecalls,and6groupmeetingsin17citiesManagementachievedaone-on-onehitratioofover90%Theofferingwasover17xoversubscribed(pre-greenshoe)withminimalpricesensitivity,withalmost400institutionalinvestorsintheorderbook,and79investorsplacingordersfor10%ofthetransactionRetailinterestintheofferingwasalmost16MMsharesITC’sstockbegantradingonJuly26,2005andopenedatapproximately$27.ITCclosedthedayat$26.40L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\28InstitutionalDemandBuild-up(MMShares)Source DealAxis210.4TransmissionEnvironmentUpdat24L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\30AppendixABioL:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\Pers25BioTimothyR.SchwarzTimothyR.SchwarzExecutiveDirectorGlobalEnergyandUtilitiesGroupTel:(212)761-6514E-mail:timothy.schwarz@TimothyisanExecutiveDirectorintheFirm’sGlobalEnergyandUtitiliesGroup.HejoinedMorganStanleyin1989asaGeneralistintheMergers&AcquisitionsDepartment.TimothyjoinedtheGlobalEnergyandUtilitiesGroupin1994.Sincethenhehasworkedextensivelyonmergers,restructuringsandcapitalformationstrategiesforawidevarietyofclientsbothdomesticallyandinternationally.Hehasworkedwithelectric,gasandwaterutilities.Timothyhasspentsignificanttimeworkingwithintegratedutilitiesastheydevelopandexecutestrategiestoaddressthechangingregulatoryenvironment,withparticularfocusonthegenerationandtransmissionsegmentsoftheindustryTimothyreceivedaB.A.inEconomicsfromWesleyanUniversityin1983andanMBAfromHarvardUniversityin1989.19BioTimothyR.SchwarzTimothyR26L:\UTILITIES_NY\DEPT_ONLY\PersonalFolders\BLUX\TimSchwarz\UtilityIndustryPresentation.ppt\A2XP\16SEP2005\5:55PM\1InvestmentBankingViewoftheUtilityIndustry21