汽車業(yè)加速邁進(jìn)電動(dòng)車時(shí)代概要

汽車業(yè)加速邁進(jìn)電動(dòng)車時(shí)代Leader:CarmakersaccelerateintoanelectricfutureScantilycladwomenarealreadysomethingofananachronisminthevasthangarsoftheFrankfurtMotorShow.Butanyonehankeringafterold-stylepetrolheadculturewouldhavehadgreatercasefornostalgiaatthisyear 'sindustrygathering.Someofthecarsondisplayhadnosteeringwheel.Aconsiderablylargernumberhadnotraditionalengin—asignofthearmsraceunderwayascarmakersrushtodevelopautonomousandelectricvehicles.在法蘭克福車展的巨大展廳里，衣著暴露的車模已顯得有些過時(shí)。而今年車展更會(huì)觸動(dòng)老式汽油車擁躉們的懷舊情懷。一些展出的車型不見了方向盤。更多的展車沒有了傳統(tǒng)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)一一這預(yù)示著隨著汽車制造商們競相開發(fā)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車和電動(dòng)汽車，一場軍備競賽”已上演。Thespeedoftheshiftisremarkable.Justacoupleofyearsago,thebiggestcarmakersweretalkingaboutelectrification,butwouldtypicallyhavejustoneortwomodelsonthestands.NowRenault-Nissanissettoproduce12all-electriccars;Mercedeswillofferelectrifiedversionsofallitscarsby2022.VW,theworld 'scarmaker,saysitwillbuild50all-electricmodelsby2025andelectrify300modelsby2030.這一轉(zhuǎn)變速度驚人。就在幾年前，那些汽車制造巨頭雖已開始談?wù)撾姎饣话阒粫?huì)推出一兩個(gè)車型。如今，雷諾-日產(chǎn)（Renault-Nissan計(jì)劃生產(chǎn)12款純電動(dòng)車；梅賽德斯（Mercedes將在2022年前推出旗下全系車型的電動(dòng)版本。全球最大的汽車制造商大眾（VW表示，會(huì)在2025年前推出50款純電動(dòng)車型并在2030年前實(shí)現(xiàn)旗下300款車型的電動(dòng)化。Thereisarealsensethattheindustryisnearinganinflectionpoint.Thisispartlyduetoadvancesinbatterytechnologyandchangingpublicperceptions:electriccarsarebecomingdesirable.Butitisdrivenbypolicy.Europeanregulatorswerepreviouslycontenttosetenvironmentalstandardsandletmanufacturersdecidehowtomeetthem.Sincetheemissionscheatingscandal,theyarequitereasonablyinclinedtobemoreprescriptive.這讓人們真的感到汽車業(yè)正瀕臨一個(gè)拐點(diǎn)。在一定程度上這是由電池技術(shù)的進(jìn)步及公眾觀念的轉(zhuǎn)變帶來的：對(duì)電動(dòng)汽車的需求正在增加。但真正的推動(dòng)力量是政策。歐洲的監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)以往安于制定環(huán)境標(biāo)準(zhǔn) ，讓制造商們決定如何達(dá)標(biāo)。自從爆出了排放欺詐丑聞，他們理所當(dāng)然會(huì)加強(qiáng)規(guī)范。TheUKandFranceproposephasingoutnewpetrolanddieselvehiclesby2040.Citymayorsareabletoactmuchfaster:Paris,StuttgartandMadridareamongthosethatwillbandieselvehiclesby2025.Thisispromptingarapidchangeinconsumerbehaviour:fewpeoplewillriskbuyingacarthatmaybeoflimitedusewithinadecade.Chineseauthoritiesarenowconsideringwhethertoimposesimilarrestrictions:iftheydo,therewillprobablybealongperiodinwhichhybridvehiclesoutnumberall-electricmodels,buttherewillbelittlefutureforpetrolanddieselineitherAsianorEuropeanmarkets英國和法國提出在2040年前逐步停售汽油和柴油汽車。市長們的行動(dòng)要快得多：巴黎、斯圖加特和馬德里等城市將在2025年前禁止柴油汽車。這正促使消費(fèi)者們的行為發(fā)生一個(gè)迅速的轉(zhuǎn)變：很少有人會(huì)冒險(xiǎn)買一輛在十年之內(nèi)使用有可能受限的車。中國當(dāng)局正在考慮是否實(shí)施類似的限制：如果他們也出臺(tái)了限制措施，可能很長一段時(shí)間內(nèi)混合動(dòng)力汽車的數(shù)量仍會(huì)比純電動(dòng)車型多，但無論是亞洲還是歐洲市場，汽油和柴油汽車都幾乎不再有未來可言。Sucharadicalchangebringschallenges,rangingfromtheneedtosetupcharginginfrastructure,totheproblemsofmanagingnewdemandsonpowergrids.Andelectriccarswillofcourseonlybeascleanasthesourcefromwhichelectricityisgenerated.Forcarindustryexecutives,though,thereisamorepressingquestion:cantheycontinuetomakemoney?這一巨變帶來了不少挑戰(zhàn)，從需要設(shè)立充電基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施倒管理對(duì)電力系統(tǒng)的新需求等問題。此外,電動(dòng)汽車的清潔程度當(dāng)然完全取決于電力的來源。然而 ，對(duì)汽車行業(yè)的高管們來說，有一個(gè)更加迫切的問題：他們還能不能繼續(xù)賺錢？Carmakers'marginsarealreadystretched.Theswitchtoelectricvehicleswillerodeprofitabilityfurther,sincetheywill,atleastinitially,facehighercomponentcostsandlowersalesvolumes,whileinvestinglargesumsinresearchanddevelopment.車制造商們的利潤已經(jīng)非常薄。轉(zhuǎn)向生產(chǎn)電動(dòng)汽車將進(jìn)一步削弱其盈利能力 ，因?yàn)樗麄儗ⅷD―至少在最初階段一一面臨較高的零部件成本和較低的銷量，同時(shí)又要在研發(fā)上投入大量資金。businessrThisshouldchangeovertimeasbatterycostscomedow—eveniftheimprovementisnotasstartlingasithasprovedtobeforrenewableenergy.ThebiggerchallengeisthatelectricvehiclescouldfundamentallychangecarmakersbusinessrAtpresent,themanufacturerscontroldesign,brandingandthemostimportantaspectsofproduction.Infuture,upto50percentofthevalueofthecarcouldlieinelectricalsystemsandelectronics,ratherthanmechanicalsystem隨著電池成本的降低,這一點(diǎn)應(yīng)該會(huì)逐漸好轉(zhuǎn)一一即使這種改進(jìn)并不如可再生資源那樣顯著。更大的挑戰(zhàn)是電動(dòng)汽車可能從根本上改變汽車制造商的商業(yè)模式。目前 ，制造商們控制著設(shè)計(jì)、品牌以及生產(chǎn)中最重要的方方面面。未來，汽車價(jià)值的50%可能在于電力系統(tǒng)和電子設(shè)備，而不是機(jī)械系統(tǒng)。ThisisahugeopportunityforsupplierssuchasDelphi,whichhopestosellmillionsofthesmallelectricmotorsusedinhybridvehicles;andforconsumerelectronicscompaniesthatcansupplythesoftwareservicesrequire對(duì)于像德爾福（Delphi這樣的供應(yīng)商來說，這是一個(gè)巨大的機(jī)遇。德爾福希望賣出數(shù)百萬臺(tái)用于混合動(dòng)力汽車的小型電動(dòng)機(jī)。此外，那些能夠提供必要軟件服務(wù)的消費(fèi)電子企業(yè)也同樣面臨機(jī)遇。Ifcarmakerssufferfromthetransition,theydeservelimitedsympathy,giventheindustry-widefailingsthatledtotheclampdownondiesel.Butthisdisruptioncouldalsocarryacosttosociety,ifitbothcutstheoverallnumberofjobsavailableandrequiresverydifferentskillsofemployees.Thistransit