德勤信用風險管理2

CreditRiskManagement

EnhancingYourBottomLineEbrahimShabudinManagingDirectorDeloitte&ToucheLLPTheAFP23rdAnnualConferenceNewOrleansNovember3-6,2002CreditBackgroundThoroughidentificationandaccuratemeasurementofcreditrisk,supportedbystrongriskmanagementcanhelpimprovethebottomline…..Anuncertainandvolatileeconomic environmentsignificantlyimpactsthisability…..Thedesiretogrowandturninoutstanding resultshasatendencytoputpressureonthe checksandbalanceswithinbusinessesValuePropositionCreditplaysacriticalrolein“selling”productsandservicesExpandsrevenueopportunitieswithcreditworthy,incrementalcustomersUtilizesinnovativestructurestosupportbusinessrelationshipsEffectivecreditriskmanagementlimitscreditlossesandprovidesstablecashflowsandearningsMarketplacerewardscompaniesexhibitingearningsandcashflowstabilitywithhigherP/EmultiplesMarketplacepenalizescreditinducedvolatilityand“surprises”RaisesquestionsaboutqualityofmanagementCorporateCreditRiskCompaniesareexposedtosignificantlevelsofcreditriskemanatingfromdifferentsourcesAccountsReceivablesOtherNotesReceivablesBuyerandFranchiseFinancingWithRecourseFinancingProjectFinanceStructuredTransactionsLeaseswithRecourseDerivativesExposuresFX,InterestRateRisk,Commoditiesetc.CollateralRiskParentorThirdPartyGuaranteesCommercialandStandbyLettersofCreditNotealsothatCriticalSupplierstothecompanymayposespecificcreditriskDSOImpact…anexampleActualCompanyAPeerAverageQ3A/R$295,396,000Q3Sales$261,201,000\DSOs=124*51.3HypotheticalDCashDSOs51.3Q3Sales$261,201,000\Q3A/R=$122,002,230+$173,393,770*Equals295.4M/261.2Mx90(ornumberofdaysinsalesperiod)CreditasaFacilitatorCreditriskmanagementisimportant

CreditisafacilitatorofbusinessgrowthandperformanceHighbusinessmarginstendtoattractlowerqualityclientsandthereforehigherriskprofiletomanageClients(buyers)maybeconcentratedinselectedindustriesandprovidelimitedportfoliodiversificationopportunityPoorcreditriskmanagementresultinginnegativeimpacttobottom-lineisheavilypenalizedbymarketsCreditStrategy&RiskToleranceSpecificQuantifiableObjectivesManagementReviewMethodologyCreditStrategyStatementandRiskToleranceCoordinationwithBusinessPlanThebusinessstrategiesandobjectivesdrivetheestablishmentofcreditpoliciesandprocedures.Measurementandreportingaswellastheuseofcurrenttechnologiesenhancecreditdecision-makingandimproveriskmanagement.Theentireprocessiscontinuallyre-evaluatedandimproved.CreditRiskAreastoConsiderCreditPolicyCreditApprovalAuthorityLimitSettingPricingTermsandConditionsDocumentation:ContractsandCovenantsCollateralandSecurityCollections,DelinquenciesandWorkoutsExposureManagementAggregationControlPeriodicAccountReviewsPayments/AgingCreditConditionCompliancewithCovenants,TermsTechnology/ReportsTransactions/BookingsRisk-adjustedReturnSalesChannelsRiskStrategyUnderwritingStandardsCreditApplicationAnalysisBusiness/IndustryFinancialCreditCreditScoringandRatingsOrigination/AssessmentAdministrationMonitoring/ControlRiskManagementPortfolioManagementConcentrationDiversificationAllowanceforBadDebtsRiskMitigationObjectivesTypeofExposureInstrumentsorMethodsValueCreationBusinessPerformanceMeasuresOrganizationsneedarigoroussetofmeasurestosupportcontinuousimprovementPerformance-basedmanagementutilizesmetricsthatmeasureactualperformanceagainstpredeterminedthresholds.Thethresholdsareestablishedtakingintoaccounttheorganization’sstrategy,operatingenvironmentandprocesscontrols.Themeasuresdrivevaluecreationandshouldsupportproblemidentificationandcorrection.BusinessStrategySystemsOperationsFinancePerformanceManagementSaleschannelsContracts&DocumentationCreditanalysisCreditlimitPricing&termsCreditAnalysisCreditDecisionsCollectionsCREDITPOLICYCollateralacceptancePortfoliomanagementFinancialanalysisDisposal/

RiskmitigationCollateralmanagementCustomermanagementExposuremeasurementManagementreportingExposureaggregationRecoveriesCreditscoringRiskratingRISKMANAGEMENTCreditRiskManagement’sInter-relatedActivitiesComplianceOriginationReportingTransactionsCreditPolicies&ProceduresAnalysis&RiskManagementGovernance,ControlandImplementationMeasurementMethodologiesTechnology&DataIntegrityCreditStrategy&RiskToleranceAcompleteandcoherentriskmanagementframeworkcontainsthefollowingelementsCreditRiskManagementANewParadigmAnewbusinessparadigmhadevolved:causingalackofrelianceongoodfundamentalanalysisTheideathatstockmarketvalueswouldcontinuetogoupindefinitelyIncreasinglycompetitive,complexandvolatilemarketplaceHigherthanexpectedactualdebtburdensExtensiverelianceonunrealisticfuturecashflowsFailuresincorporategovernanceQuestionablepersonalandcorporateethicsImplicationsforCorporateGovernanceCurrentorganizationstructurestoberevisitedClarityaroundrolesandresponsibilitiesNeedforhonesty,integrityandindependence(self-regulation)TechnicalexpertiseofpeopleandstrongmanagementprocessesImproveddisclosurerequirementsImportanceandimplementationofsanctionsIncreasedlegislationandcompliancerequirementsFoundation:CreditRatingandUnderwritingStandardsRiskIdentification,Origination,CreditAdministration,etc.ShortTerm:ManagingExpectedLossRiskIdentification,TransactionStructuring,Approval&PricingDecisions,Reserving,etc.NearTerm:ManagingEconomicCapital/CreditVaRPortfolioRiskConcentration,RiskBasedLimits,etc.Vision:ManagingRisk/ReturnPricingdecisions,Performancemeasurement,businessandcustomersegmentation,compensation,etc.AbusinessmodelviewofCreditRiskInfrastructurecomponentsCreditRiskManagement––StrategicVisionDevelopmentStagesFoundationStageincludesapplicationofriskidentificationmethodologies,riskscoringorratingsystemsandstrongunderwritingstandardsBasicStagetendstoincludemanagingonatransactionalbasisbyevaluatingspecificattributessuchasstructuring,collateralandpricingAdvancedStagerepresentsmanagingonaportfoliobasisincludingaspectssuchasconcentrations,correlationsanddiversificationTheSophisticatedStageincludesapplicationofhighlydevelopedmeasurementtechniquesfortransactionsandportfolios,supportedbydecision-makingrelatingtosegmentsorbusinessesagainstestablishedhurdlerates.CreditRiskClarifiedCreditriskisdefinedastheriskoflossorpotentiallossresultingfrom:DefaultincontractualobligationsbyacustomerMigrationinconditionandratingDeteriorationinperformanceCreditriskincludesbothanexpected(predictable)andunexpected(volatile)losscomponent.BusinesseshavetocontendwithExpectedandUnexpectedLossesExpectedLossesAnticipatedCostofdoingbusinessChargedtoprovisionsCapturedinpricingRelativelyeasiertomeasureAssessingexpectedlossincludesdeterminingexposure,defaultprobabilityandseverityUnexpectedLossesUnanticipatedbutinevitableMustbeplannedforCoveredbyreservesAllocatedtobusinessesDifficulttomeasureAssessingunexpectedlossrequiresmakingqualitativejudgmentsaroundpotentialvolatilityofaveragelossesCreditRiskManagementExplainedAlthoughcreditriskmaybedifficulttomeasureitisimportanttoestimateandmanageWhatdoesCreditRiskManagementmean?Itrepresentsaninstitution’’sabilitytoproperlyidentifyandevaluatethepotentialriskofdefaultinpaymentofobligationsofcustomersItincorporatesthefirm’’sabilitytoeffectivelymanageandcontrolthisexposureinawaythatisconsistentwiththeinstitution’sbusinessstrategy,riskappetiteandcreditcultureImportantBuildingBlocksEffectiveCreditRiskManagementrequiresClearoriginationandunderwritingstandardsAstrongcorporateandcreditcultureHighlydevelopedriskmeasurementtechniquesAbilitytorecognizeandcoverexpectedandunexpectedlossesPricingcommensuratewithrisksundertakenMethodologiestoassessnetprofitcontributionsbycustomersandappropriatebusinesssegmentsProperallocationofcapitalandmanagementresourcesInorderto:Improveoverallcorporateperformance,measuredbyahigherEPSorP/Eratio(ormarketvalue)CreditPolicyandProcessCreditPolicyshouldbeclearandconciseCreditUnderwritingStandardsmustbedevelopedandincludedinpolicyCreditProcessesshouldbereasonableandallowquickresponsetoclientsHealthybalancebetweensalesandcreditapprovalshouldexistandberespectedRiskMonitoringExposuremustbecompleteandcurrentRegularreportingandupdatingofclients’paymentperformanceMinimumannualreviewsofclientsshouldbeperformedFinancialconditionsshouldberegularlyassessedRequiredactionmustbeinitiatedandfollowupmusttakeplaceContractTermsandDocumentationContractnegotiationsmusttakeplaceattherightlevelintheorganizationAppropriateapprovalsmustbeobtainedInternalorexternallegaldepartmentsmustdocumentcompletelyTermsandconditionsshouldbeunderstoodandcompliancemechanismputinplaceExceptionsmustbereportedandmanagedurgentlytoresolutionRiskRatingSystemEffectivenessCreditScoringisgenerallyusedto““riskrate”homogeneousportfoliosHighestapplicabilityisinconsumerandretailportfoliosSomeadvancedscoringsystemsarebeingmigratedforuseinrating“middlemarket”clientsSuchmodelsareonlyasgoodastheunderlyingassumptionsInternalcreditratingsystemsaredifficulttoassessandareoftennotindependentlyvalidatedClientrelationshipmayinterferewithobjectiveassessmentofrisksRatingcriteriausuallyamatterofpracticeratherthanwrittenpolicyRatingsarenotconsistentovertimeQualitativecreditassessmentsoftenlagcurrentmarketinformationInstitutionsoftenassumeamappingwithexternalratingsinordertoquantifycreditriskEffectiveRiskRatingSystemsSufficientgranularityofriskratingcategoriesAccurateandtimelyassignmentofratingsClearandconsistentapplicationofdefaultdefinitionPeriodiccalibration,triangulationandvalidationofriskratingsAccurateidentificationofmigrationoftransactionsandportfolios(asreflectedbyupgradesanddowngradesinratings)CreditEvaluation:FinancialFactorsGettheinformationyouneedtomakeafullanalysisSomeinformationwillneedtobecross-checkedandobtainedonaregularandtimelybasisBeconstructivelycynical:newbusinessmodelsaredifficulttopulloffBecognizantofdelayingtacticsNumbersdon’ttellthewholestory!CreditEvaluation:QualitativeFactorsEvaluationofsubjectivefactorsisoftentimesmoreimportantthanthenumericalanalysisPeoplemakeabusiness:visions,valuesandstrategiesareonlywordsunlesspeopleimplementthemManagement,industry,product,geography,competitionetc.allinfluenceresultsandmustbeproperlyassessedAnalysis-paralysismayleadtowrongdecisionsArtandScienceofJudgmentGettingaccesstothebestclientsandalltherelevantinformationisachallengeEnsuringproperanalysisisdonerequiresastrongcorporatecultureUtilizingqualifiedresourcesbothinternallyandexternallyenhancestheresultsOftenthelackofthewilltoactiswhatcauseshighlossesConcludingCommentsCompaniesthatmeasureandmanagecreditriskinapro-activemannerwillbenefitfromafavorableriskprofileresultinginHigherrevenueLowerlossesImprovedefficienciesHigherEPS,P/EratiosandmarketvaluesConcludingCommentsRiskAssessmentandLimitManagementCreditInfrastructureandPortfolioManagementCreditAnalyticsSupportCreditTechnologyEnablementCreditQualityCreditUnderwritingRiskRatingSystemEffectivenessCounterpartyandPortfolioLimitsOrganizationalStructurePoliciesandProceduresTechnologySelectionandImplementationProblemAssetManagementRiskRatingCalibrationTransactionPricing,StructureandSupportDefaultProbabilityandRecoveryCalibrationCreditReserveMethodologyRiskBasedPricingModelsRiskAdjustedReturnAnalysisPortfolioValueMeasurementCreditRiskMeasurementCreditPerformanceScorecardsInternalSoftwareExternalVendorSoftwareAppendix:BusinessProposalChecklistBusinessProposalSummaryCustomer,Rating,LegalStatus,LineofBusinessGuarantor,ifany…sameCollateral,ifany……truevalueexplainedOtherSupport,ifany...LegalormoralonlyTheTransaction……risksandmitigationAmount,purpose,termsandconditionsSourcesofrepayment…clearlyidentifiedClientpaymenthistoryandrelationshipAppendix:BusinessProposalChecklistRationaleandAnalysisCustomer,Guarantor,Collateral,SupportFacilityDescriptionAmount,purpose,tenor,pricing,terms,conditions,covenants,restrictionsetc.Consideraffectonabovee.g.newleverageFacilityRating?RepaymentCapacityFuturecashflow,conversionofassetsetc.ConsistencywithCreditStrategyandPolicyConfirm,andidentifyanyexceptionstopolicy,underwritingstandards,orprocessRiskadjustedreturnacceptabilityAppendix:Business