宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)英文課件：lecture2 Measuring Income and Wealth

Lecture2:MeasuringIncomeandWealth12.1DefinitionsofGDP2NationalIncomeAccountingWhydoweneedthat?TomeasureaggregateeconomicactivityCreatedbySimonKuznetsandRichardStoneCoreconcept:GDPandGNPTheUSstartedpublishingGDPin19473GDP:GrossDomesticProduct Thetotalmarketvalueofallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountryinagivenperiodoftime.4MarketValue

GDPisamarketvalue—goodsandservicesarevaluedattheirmarketprices.5Imputedvalues Forthoseactivitiesthathavenotransactions(nomarketvalue)Housingservice:bigportionofGDP(yes)Governmentservice:notforsale(yes)Householdservice;undergroundeconomy(no)6FinalGoodsandServicesAfinalgood(orservice),isanitemboughtbyitsfinaluserduringaspecifiedtimeperiod.Afinalgoodcontrastswithanintermediategood,whichisanitemthatisproducedbyonefirm,boughtbyanotherfirm,andusedasacomponentofafinalgoodorservice.Excludingintermediategoodsandservicesavoidsdoublecounting.7ValueaddedAfirm’svalueaddedisthevalueofitsoutput

minusthevalueoftheintermediategoodsthefirmusedtoproducethatoutput.ProducedwithinacountryGDPmeasuresproductionwithinacountry—domesticproduction.DifferencebetweenGDPandGNPChineseworkerstappingoilinDarfurOverseastudentsmakemoneybytutoringChinesestudentsEnglish9(GNP–GDP)asapercentageofGDP

forselectedcountries,1997.InagivenperiodoftimeGDPmeasuresthevalueofproductionthattakesplacewithinaspecificintervaloftime,usuallyayearoraquarter(threemonths).Antiques,usedproductsInventories11DiscussionsHowwillGDPchangeifalaid-offworkerwholivedongovernmentsubsidygetsemployed?Whatifyoumarryyourtutorandshecontinuestotutoryouaftermarriage?12China’sGDP13China’sGDPGrowthRate14China’sGDPpercapita152023/1/1116

DebatesaboutChinaGDPFigureOverestimated?ElectricityproducedUnderestimated?Servicesector17GDPandEconomicWell-BeingGDP≠welfareorhappiness.Butmeasureseconomicgrowthandbusinesscycles.GDPisthebestsinglemeasuretoproxytheeconomicwell-beingofasociety.GDPperperson

tellsustheincomeandexpenditureoftheaveragepersonintheeconomy.HigherGDPperpersonindicatesahigherstandardofliving.18Somethingsthatcontributetowell-beingarenotincludedinGDP.Non-marketeconomicactivities,suchasfamilylaborGreyeconomyLeisureEnvironmentQualityimprovementofcommodities19GDP,LifeExpectancy,andLiteracy20GDPpercapitaandHDI(2004)212.2StructureofGDP22Thecircularflowdiagramshowsthetransactionsamonghouseholds,firms,governments,andtherestoftheworld23Thesetransactionstakeplaceinfactormarkets,goodsmarkets,andfinancialmarkets.24Firmshirefactorsofproductionfromhouseholds.Theblueflow,Y,showstotalincomepaidbyfirmstohouseholds.25Householdsbuyconsumergoodsandservices.Theredflow,C,showsconsumptionexpenditures.26Householdssave,S,andpaytaxes,T.Firmsborrowsomeofwhathouseholdssavetofinancetheirinvestment.27Firmsbuycapitalgoodsfromotherfirms.TheredflowIrepresentsthisinvestmentexpenditurebyfirms.28Governmentsbuygoodsandservices,G,andborroworrepaydebtifspendingexceedsorislessthantaxes29Therestoftheworldbuysgoodsandservicesfromus,Xandsellsusgoodsandservices,M;netexportsareX-M30Andtherestoftheworldborrowsfromusorlendstousdependingonwhethernetexportsarepositiveornegative.31Theredandblueflowsarethecircularflowofexpenditureandincome.Thegreenflowsareborrowingandlending.32Thesumoftheredflowsequalstheblueflow.33Thatis:Y=C+I+G+X-M34AggregateexpenditureThecircularflowdemonstrateshowGDPcanbemeasuredintwoways.Totalexpenditureonfinalgoodsandservices,equalsthevalueofoutputoffinalgoodsandservices,whichisGDP.Totalexpenditure=C+I+G+(X–M).35AggregateIncomeAggregateincomeearnedfromproductionoffinalgoods,Y,equalsthetotalpaidoutfortheuseofresources,wages,interest,rent,andprofit.Firmspayoutalltheirreceiptsfromthesaleoffinalgoods,soincomeequalsexpenditure,Y=C+I+G+(X–M).36FinancialFlowFinancialmarketsfinancedeficitsandinvestment.HouseholdsavingSisincomeminusnettaxesandconsumptionexpenditure,andflowstothefinancialmarkets;Y=C+S+T,incomeequalstheusesofincome.37Howisinvestmentfinanced?Investmentisfinancedfromthreesources:Privatesaving,SGovernmentbudgetsurplus,(T–G)Borrowingfromtherestoftheworld(M–X).38InvestmentandSavingI=S+(T-G)+(M-X)Sisprivatesaving(T-G)ispublicsavingNationalsavingisprivatesaving+publicsavingReinterpretation:S=I+(G-T)+(X-M)39StocksandFlowsAflowisaquantityperunitoftime;astockisthequantitythatexistsatapointintime.40flowstockGDPaccounting:valueaddedmethod

GDPisthemarketvalueofallfinalgoodsproducedwithinacertainintervalWhichalsoequalsvaluesaddedineverystepofproduction41GDPaccounting:expendituremethod

Y=C+I+G+(X–M).42Consumption Thespendingbyhouseholdsongoodsandservices,withtheexceptionofpurchasesofnewhousing.DurablegoodsNon-durablegoodsservices43U.S.Consumption,2001Investment Thespendingoncapitalequipment,inventories,andstructures,includingnewhousing.BusinessfixedinvestmentResidentialfixedinvestmentInventoryinvestment45U.S.Investment,200147Consumption(100millionyuan)Investment(100millionyuan)Consumption/GDPInvestment/GDPInvestmentversusConsumption:1978-2010GovernmentExpenditure

Thespendingongoodsandservicesbylocal,state,andfederalgovernments.Doesnotincludetransferpaymentsbecausetheyarenotmadeinexchangeforcurrentlyproducedgoodsorservices.48Governmentspending,2001USGDPandItsComponents(2004)50Consumption70%GovernmentPurchases15%NetExports-5%Investment16%China’sGDPcomponentsin200751ChinaNX/GDP522023/1/11China’sMonthlyExportandImport($100m)ExportsImports2007-012008-012009-012010-012011-0153USNX/GDP54IncomeMethod:AnExampleBakerymakingcakescakes=f(employment,shop,cakemachines,inputs)Y=GDP=f(N，K)Salesofcakes=wages+rents+capitalrentalcosts+profitsY=w*N+r*K+PROFITDepreciationCapital,theplant,equipment,andinventoriesofrawandsemi-finishedmaterialsthatareusedtoproduceothergoodsandservicesisastock.Investmentistheflowthatchangesthestockofcapital.Depreciationisthedecreaseinthecapitalstockthatresultsfromwearandtear,andobsolescence.Capitalconsumptionisanothernamefordepreciation.GrossDomesticProductGrossprofits,andGDP,includedepreciation.Similarly,grossinvestmentincludesthatamountofpurchasesofnewcapitalgoodsthatreplacedepreciationNetprofits,netdomesticproduct,andnetinvestmentsubtractdepreciationfromthegrossconcepts.Investmentplaysacentralroleintheeconomy.IncreasesincapitalareonesourceofgrowthinpotentialrealGDP;fluctuationsininvestmentareonesourceoffluctuationsinrealGDP.DecompositionofGNPusingIncomeMethodGNP–depreciation=NNPNNP–statisticaldiscrepancy=NationalIncomeNationalIncome–indirectbusinesstaxes-corporateprofits–netinterests+dividends+governmenttransfers+personalinterestincome=PersonalIncomePersonalIncome–PersonalTaxes=DisposablePersonalIncome2023/1/11 UrbanRuralUrbanandRuralPerCapitaDisposableIncome:1978-2010(inYuan)59NationalIncomeTheNationalIncomeandProductAccountsdivideincomesintofivecategoriesCompensationofemployeesNetinterestRentalincomeCorporateprofits.Proprietors’income.60China’sGDPusingIncomeMethod(Unit：1/10billionYuan）GDPandComponentsPercentagesGDPDepreciationWagesIndirectTaxesCorporateProfitsDepreciationWagesIndirectTaxesCorporateProfits2000923471460649920134121440915.854.114.515.620011067661677954935150272002515.751.514.118.820021218591874158950174622670615.448.414.321.920031355392155167261193622736515.949.614.320.220051977892952281888279195846014.941.414.129.620062310533364293823327277086214.640.614.230.7SectorsofGDP

agricultural;industrial;servicearelatedissue:urbanizationChinadata2013:10%;43.9;46.1

sectoralgrowth2003-2011:primary,4.6%;secondary,11.9%;tertiary,11.1%

Beijing2013,tertiaryover77%

US:1.12;19.1;79.7(2012)622.3MakingSenseofGDP:Realvs.Nominal63SeasonalAdjustmentGDPisweakinfirstquarter,hotinlastquarter:±15%comparedwithsameperiodlastyearorcomparedonquarter-on-quarterbasis64InternationalComparisonsRealGDPisusedtocompareeconomicwelfareinonecountrywiththatinanother.RealGDPofonecountrymustbeconvertedintothesamecurrencyunitsastherealGDPoftheothercountry,soanexchangeratemustbeused.Thesamepricesshouldbeusedtovaluethegoodsandservicesinthecountriesbeingcompared,butoftenarenot.65PPPAdjustmentUsingpurchasingpowerparitypricesleadstoanestimatethatperpersonGDPintheUnitedStatesis(only)12timesthatinChina.66

RealversusNominalGDPNominalGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatcurrentprices.RealGDPvaluestheproductionofgoodsandservicesatconstantprices.AnaccurateviewoftheeconomyrequiresadjustingnominaltorealGDPwithchangestheinpricelevel67跨期的生活水平比較：真實(shí)GDPRealGDPandthePriceLevelThetableprovidesdatafor2002and2003.In2002,nominalGDPis:Expenditureonballs$100Expenditureonbats$100NominalGDP$200ItemQuantityPrice2002Balls100$1.00Bats20$5.002003Balls160$0.50Bats22$22.50RealGDPandthePriceLevelIn2003,nominalGDPis:Expenditureonballs$80Expenditureonbats$495NominalGDP$575ItemQuantityPrice2002Balls100$1.00Bats20$5.002003Balls160$0.50Bats22$22.50RealGDPandthePriceLevelTheoldmethodofcalculatingrealGDPwastovalueeachyear’soutputatthepricesofabaseyear—thebaseyearpricesmethod.Suppose2002isthebaseyearand2003isthecurrentyear.ItemQuantityPrice2002Balls100$1.00Bats20$5.002003Balls160$0.50Bats22$22.50RealGDPandthePriceLevelExpenditureonballsin2003valuedat2002pricesis$160.Expenditureonbatsin2003valuedat2002pricesis$110.RealGDPin2003(base-yearpricesmethod)is$270.ItemQuantityPrice2002Balls100$1.00Bats20$5.002003Balls160$0.50Bats22$22.50RealGDPandthePriceLevelCalculatingthePriceLevelTheaveragelevelofpricesiscalledthepricelevel.OnemeasureofthepricelevelistheGDPdeflator,whichisanaverageofthepricesofthegoodsinGDPinthecurrentyearexpressedasapercentageofthebaseyearprices.

CalculatingthePriceLevelOnemeasureofthepricelevelistheGDPdeflator,whichmeasuresthecurrentlevelofpricesrelativetothelevelofpricesinthebaseyear.74RealGDPandthePriceLevelNominalGDPandrealGDParecalculatedinthewaythatyou’vejustseen.GDPDeflator=(NominalGDP/RealGDP)100.In2002,theGDPdeflatoris($200/$200)100=100.In2003,theGDPdeflatoris($575/$250)100=230.YearNominalGDPRealGDPGDPdeflator2002$200$2001002003$575$250230DeflatingtheGDPBalloonNominalGDPincreasesbecauseproduction—realGDP–increases.76DeflatingtheGDPBalloonNominalGDPalsoincreasesbecausepricesrise.77DeflatingtheGDPBalloonWeusetheGDPdeflatortolettheairoutofthenominalGDPballoonandrevealrealGDP.78TheConsumerPriceIndexTheconsumerpriceindex

(CPI)isameasureoftheoverallcostofthegoodsandservicesboughtbyatypicalconsumer.Itisusedtomonitorchangesinthecostoflivingovertime.Theproducerpriceindex,whichmeasuresthecostofabasketofgoodsandservicesboughtbyfirmsratherthanconsumers.79ReadingtheCPINumbersTheCPIisdefinedtoequal100forthereferencebaseperiod.ThevalueoftheCPIforanyotherperiodiscalculatedbytakingtheratioofthecurrentcostofamarketbasketofgoodstothecostofthesamemarketbasketofgoodsinthereferencebaseperiodandmultiplyingby100.80ConstructingtheCPIConstructingtheCPIinvolvesthreestages:SelectingtheCPIbasketConductingamonthlypricesurveyUsingthepricesandthebaskettocalculatetheCPI81TheBasketoftheCPIintheUSHousingisthelargestcomponent.Transportationandfoodandbeveragesarethenextlargestcomponents.Theremainingcomponentsaccountforonly26percentofthebasket.82TheBasketofCPIinChina83China’sCPI:1978-20102023/1/11842023/1/1185TheConsumerPriceIndexForasimpleeconomythatconsumesonlyorangesandhaircuts,wecancalculatetheCPI.TheCPIbasketis10orangesand5haircuts.ItemQuantityPriceCostofCPIbasketOranges10$1.00$10Haircuts5$8.00$40CostofCPIbasketatbaseperiodprices$50TheConsumerPriceIndexThistableshowsthepricesinthebaseperiod.ThecostoftheCPIbasketinthebaseperiodwas$50.ItemQuantityPriceCostofCPIbasketOranges10$1.00$10Haircuts5$8.00$40CostofCPIbasketatbaseperiodprices$50