宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策解讀經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)

第二講經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)伏霖中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院2015-2016年秋季學(xué)期MPAccF1目錄經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的典型事實(shí)千年増長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)后增長(zhǎng)窮國(guó)與富國(guó)：天注定？中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的奇跡哪里來(lái)？中國(guó)中長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的潛力2經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)：一個(gè)永恒的話題

印度政府是否能采取某些行動(dòng)使印度的經(jīng)濟(jì)像印度尼西亞和埃及的經(jīng)濟(jì)那樣增長(zhǎng)？如果能，那么應(yīng)該采取哪些政策呢？如果不能，那么到底是哪些‘印度的特性’使其無(wú)法這么做呢？這些問題中間所包含的人類福利含義本身就是非常重要的：一旦我們開始思考這些問題，我們就發(fā)現(xiàn)很難再去思考其他問題。

——羅伯特·盧卡斯31、經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的典型事實(shí)4馬爾薩斯農(nóng)業(yè)社會(huì)最重要的生產(chǎn)要素：土地土地的特征？產(chǎn)出增加（經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)）

人口增加

資源匱乏

戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、瘟疫人口下降

產(chǎn)出降低。

前現(xiàn)代社會(huì)人口規(guī)模基本穩(wěn)定，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率低下人類社會(huì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)馬爾薩斯的人口陷阱（低水平均衡陷阱）人口不斷增長(zhǎng)下的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展停滯；技術(shù)增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致更高的人口密度和保持不變的長(zhǎng)期人均收入水平；只有人口增長(zhǎng)放慢，經(jīng)濟(jì)才可能起飛技術(shù)進(jìn)步，農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)增加短期人均收入增長(zhǎng)人口快速上漲長(zhǎng)期人均收入增長(zhǎng)停滯6DavidRicardo7人類社會(huì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)世界兩千年Source：OdedGalor,”GrowthandComparativeDevelopment：Evidence”8問題：為何工業(yè)革命后世界脫離了馬爾薩斯陷阱？工業(yè)革命以后的主要生產(chǎn)要素？9人類社會(huì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)兩個(gè)千年Source：OdedGalor,”GrowthandComparativeDevelopment：Evidence”10人類社會(huì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)結(jié)論：10世紀(jì)前，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平并無(wú)太大差異；15世紀(jì)之前，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎零增長(zhǎng)；1500-1700，歐洲人均產(chǎn)出變成正增長(zhǎng)，但很小，每年0.1%，1700-1820，每年0.2%；即使在產(chǎn)業(yè)革命時(shí)代，增長(zhǎng)率也不高，英國(guó)1870-1950年的人均產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率僅每年0.98%20世紀(jì)50和60年代高增長(zhǎng)---出人意料11工業(yè)革命以后經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的典型事實(shí)：

卡爾多事實(shí)（1960）1.人均產(chǎn)出持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，且增長(zhǎng)率沒有下降趨勢(shì)。2.人均物質(zhì)資本持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)3.資本回報(bào)率近乎穩(wěn)定4.物資資本-產(chǎn)出比例近乎穩(wěn)定5.勞動(dòng)和物資資本在國(guó)民收入中所占份額近乎穩(wěn)定6.各國(guó)人均產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率差異很大12主要國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)經(jīng)歷（1990年不變價(jià)，美元）13FranceUKSpainAustraliaUSAChinaIndiaJapanS.KoreaThailandTaiwan1600600600100075752015001,08684652717501,69578358759818201,1352,0749165181,36160064133557060618501,5972,3301,0791,9751,84960068118701,8763,1901,2073,2732,44553053373733760860718902,3764,0091,6244,4583,3925405841,01278419133,4854,9212,0565,1575,3015526731,38748584180719294,7105,5032,7395,2636,8995627282,0266247931,24919505,1866,9392,1897,4129,5614486191,92185481791619607,3988,6453,0728,79111,3286627533,9861,2261,0781,353197011,41010,7676,31912,02415,0307788689,7142,1671,6942,537198014,76612,9319,20314,41218,5771,06193813,4284,1142,5545,260199017,64716,43012,05517,17323,2011,8711,30918,7898,7044,6339,938200020,39221,04615,72421,37828,7023,4211,88220,48114,9986,44016,628201021,47723,77716,79725,58430,4918,0323,37221,93521,7019,37223,2921870-19501.28%0.98%0.75%1.03%1.72%-0.21%0.19%1.20%1.17%0.37%0.52%1950-20102.40%2.07%3.45%2.09%1.95%4.93%2.87%4.14%5.54%4.15%5.54%人均實(shí)際GDP數(shù)據(jù)表明各國(guó)生活水平差別很大：我國(guó)2010年的生活水平與英國(guó)1960年的生活水平相當(dāng)。最后一欄的增長(zhǎng)率序列告訴我們，各國(guó)增長(zhǎng)率存在較大差別，各國(guó)生活水平位次不斷改變。日本位次一直在上升（6---3），而英國(guó)在下降（1---4）。這說明：世界上最富的國(guó)家并不能保證其將來(lái)是最富的，而世界上最貧窮的國(guó)家不是注定永遠(yuǎn)處于貧窮。解讀142、窮國(guó)與富國(guó)15TotalGDP(2013):$84.97TPopulation(2013est):7.09BGDPperCapita:$12,700GDPGrowth(2013est.):3.0%Unemployment(2013est.):9%GDPpercapitaisprobablythebestmeasureofacountry’swellbeingTheWordEconomy經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)重要性七十法則如果以每年g%的速度增長(zhǎng)，70/g翻一倍。17RegionGDP%ofWorldGDPGDPPerCapitaRealGDPGrowthUnitedStates$14T20%$47,0001.3%EuropeanUnion$15T21%$33,0001.0%Japan$4.3T6%$34,200-.4%China$7.8T11%$6,0009.8%India$3.2T5%$2,8006.6%Ethiopia$66.3B.09%$8008.5%世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的重要性191950年以來(lái)富國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)增長(zhǎng)率從20世紀(jì)70年代中期開始下降生活水平自1950年以來(lái)得到極大提高人均產(chǎn)出的趨同性（convergence)

國(guó)家人均產(chǎn)出年增長(zhǎng)率%人均實(shí)際產(chǎn)出（1996年美元價(jià)格）1950-19731974-2000195020002000/1950法國(guó)4.01.85519223714.1日本7.42.324172467110.2英國(guó)2.41.87641221882.9美國(guó)2.42.110601333083.1平均4.12.06544256343.9201950年以來(lái)富國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趨同性人均產(chǎn)出的初始水平和之后的增長(zhǎng)率之間存在明顯的負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系。（圖，OECD國(guó)家）21IncomeGDP/CapitaGDPGrowthLow$5106.3%Middle$2,1907.0%High$32,0403.2%Asageneralrule,lowincome(developing)countriestendtohavehigheraverageratesofgrowththandohighincomecountriesTheimplicationhereisthateventually,poorercountriesshouldeventually“catchup”towealthiercountriesintermsofpercapitaincome–aconceptknownas“convergence”22Somecountries,however,don’tfitthenormalpatternofdevelopmentHaitiGDP:$11.5B(#146)GDPPerCapita:$1,200(#207)GDPGrowth:-5.1%(#213)QatarGDP:$150B(#59)GDPPerCapita:$179,000(#1)GDPGrowth:16.3%(#1)So,whatisHaitidoingwrong?(Or,whatisQatardoingright?)Atcurrentrates,PercapitaincomeinQatarwillquadrupleto$716,000overthenextdecade.Overthesametimeperiod,percapitaGDPinHaitiwilldropbyroughly40%to$710!!!Source:GDP-percapita(PPP),世界概況,美國(guó)中央情報(bào)局預(yù)測(cè),Jan16,2011世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異—更廣的空間Source：OdedGalor,”GrowthandComparativeDevelopment：Evidence”24趨同性是否還存在？大部分亞洲國(guó)家的趨同性同樣明顯（亞洲四小龍，中國(guó)，印度尼西亞等）趨同性在非洲顯然不成立（尼日爾等）世界范圍來(lái)看，似乎是一個(gè)大分化世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)差異—更廣的空間25長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論Smith(1776),Malthus(1798),Ricardo(1817),Marx(1867)growthfallsinthepresenceofafixedfactorRamsey(1928),Cass(1965)andKoopmans(1965)growthwithconsumeroptimisation(intertemporalsubstitution)Harrod(1939)andDomar(1946)modelswithlittlefactorsubstitutionandanexogenoussavingrateSolow(1956)andSwan(1956)factorsubstitution,anexogenoussavingrate,diminishingreturns26索羅模型羅伯特·索洛(RobertMertonSolow,1924年8月23日-)，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，以其新古典經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論著稱，并在1961年被美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)會(huì)授予青年經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的“約翰·貝茨·克拉克獎(jiǎng)”(JohnBatesClarkMedal)；在1987年被瑞典皇家科學(xué)院授予諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論——Solow模型Solow模型“宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家回答長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)的有關(guān)問題，他們通常以一個(gè)簡(jiǎn)單的新古典增長(zhǎng)模型開始”---Mankiw四個(gè)基本假設(shè)：1.一個(gè)部門，一種產(chǎn)品（可投資、可消費(fèi)）2.沒有國(guó)際貿(mào)易，沒有政府部門，制度不變3.沒有被消費(fèi)的產(chǎn)出都被用于投資4.技術(shù)進(jìn)步、人口增長(zhǎng)率和資本存量折舊外生28索洛模型grossinvestmentperworker,sf(k)=skrequiredinvestmentperworker,(+n)koutputperworker,y=f(k)=kf(k)k29更高的儲(chǔ)蓄率f(k)kTheincreaseininvestmentraisesthegrowthratetemporarilyastheeconomymovestoanewsteady-state.Butoncethenewhighersteady-statelevelofincomeisreached,thegrowthratereturnstoitspreviouslevel.30更高的人口增長(zhǎng)率f(k)kTheriseinpopulationgrowthmeansthatmoreworkersneedtobeequippedwithcapitaleachtimeperiod,whichmeansthatlessisavailableforreplacingdepreciatedequipment.Thisleadstoafallinthesteady-statelevelofcapital.31增長(zhǎng)的黃金法則C/LI/Lf(k)kIfweprovidethesameamountofconsumptioneveryyear,thenthemaximumamountofconsumptioniscgoldA,whichoccursatf’(kgold)=n+d.Aggregateconsumptionismaximizedwherethedifferencebetweenoutputandinvestmentisgreatest.32索洛模型的結(jié)論在長(zhǎng)期，一個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)將漸進(jìn)地趨近于一個(gè)穩(wěn)態(tài)的均衡，該均衡狀態(tài)獨(dú)立于初始條件；穩(wěn)態(tài)下，總產(chǎn)出的均衡增長(zhǎng)率取決于人口增長(zhǎng)率和技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度；穩(wěn)態(tài)下，人均產(chǎn)出的增長(zhǎng)率僅取決于技術(shù)進(jìn)步速度；儲(chǔ)蓄（投資）率的一次性提高對(duì)于人均產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)的作用是暫時(shí)的。盡管索洛模型不認(rèn)為資本積累對(duì)取得長(zhǎng)期可持續(xù)的增長(zhǎng)有所貢獻(xiàn)，但是注意到生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)可能不獨(dú)立于資本積累；33投資率和人均收入的國(guó)家證據(jù)34人口增長(zhǎng)與人均收入的國(guó)際證據(jù)35內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論分別將外生的儲(chǔ)蓄率和技術(shù)等，內(nèi)生到經(jīng)濟(jì)模型之中Ramsey模型、Diamond模型（OLG）羅默的知識(shí)溢出模型、盧卡斯的人力資本模型、巴羅模型36制度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)“制度發(fā)展的質(zhì)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和效率相聯(lián)系，“好的”制度和激勵(lì)結(jié)構(gòu)是成功增長(zhǎng)和發(fā)展的前提條件”---WorldBank（2002）經(jīng)濟(jì)自由、民主（Barro、Olson）產(chǎn)權(quán)（North、Delong、Acemoglu）種族、政治沖突（Acemoglu、Collier）社會(huì)能力、基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施（Abramovitz、Temple）社會(huì)資本（socialcapital）37制度與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)“人為設(shè)計(jì)的各種約束，目的是為政治的、經(jīng)濟(jì)的和社會(huì)的相互作用搭建結(jié)構(gòu)”---North（1991）指標(biāo)朝鮮韓國(guó)人口（千）GDP（mil$）人均GDP人口（千）GDP（mil$）人均GDP195094717293770208461604577019558839936110542155222708105419601039211483110524784273981105196511869153701295287053716612951970139122718419543224162988195419751580144891284135281111548316219801711448621284138124156846411419851848152505284140806231386567019902001956874284142869373150870419952155332758152045081534517118731998212342513111834643056421112152人均GDP增長(zhǎng)率%

1953-19731973-1998朝鮮5.84-3.44韓國(guó)5.845.9938DouglassNorth諾斯“歷史總是重要的，他的重要性不僅僅在于我們可以向過去取經(jīng)，而且還因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在和未來(lái)是通過一個(gè)社會(huì)制度的連續(xù)性與過去連接起來(lái)。今天和明天的選擇是由過去決定的”39貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)“全球化”對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)起到積極的效果：資本的積累+技術(shù)的擴(kuò)散+。。。SachsandWarner,1995的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)開放的國(guó)家比封閉的國(guó)家趨同性更強(qiáng)；封閉國(guó)家的增長(zhǎng)平均水平上慢于開放的國(guó)家；其他增長(zhǎng)因素不變，貿(mào)易政策的作用仍會(huì)持續(xù)；其他因素不變的情況下，差的貿(mào)易政策似乎會(huì)直接影響增長(zhǎng)，并且影響實(shí)物資本的積累。40人均GDP高的國(guó)家有那些？Source：WorldEconomicOutlookDatabase-September2011,IMF

TheWorldFactbook，CIA

CategoryCountryCIA(PPP,$)IMF(PPP,$)1Qatar

179,000

88,222Brunei

51,600

48,333UnitedArabEmirates

49,600

47,4392Norway

54,600

51,959Switzerland

42,600

41,950Sweden

39,100

38,2043Bermuda

69,900

-CaymanIslands

43,800

-VirginIslands

38,500

-4Liechtenstein

141,100

-Luxembourg

82,600

81,466Singapore

62,100

56,694HongKong

45,900

45,944對(duì)比

UnitedStates

47,200

46,860Japan

34,000

33,885China

7,600

7,54441國(guó)民財(cái)富的概念定義:一國(guó)(或地區(qū))所擁有的生產(chǎn)性資產(chǎn),自然資源,以及消費(fèi)性資產(chǎn)的總額GDP=流量;財(cái)富=存量;GDP高不等于財(cái)富高!舉例:1)中國(guó)與歐洲之比;2)中國(guó)與俄羅斯,1980-2002;3)歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)與香港經(jīng)濟(jì),1998—2003.43窮國(guó)與富國(guó)Source：WBEconomiesaredividedaccordingto2013GNIpercapita,WorldBanklowincome$1045orlesslowermiddleincome$1046-$4125uppermiddleincome$4126-$12745highincome$12745ormore44窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美1971-2010GDPperSource：WDI2011451971-2010GDPgrowhrate（%）Source：WDI2011窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美46一河（格蘭德河）之隔，天壤之別？拉美陷阱？拉美VS北美鄰國(guó)同為殖民地歷史；幾乎同時(shí)獨(dú)立；相似的共和政體；同樣擁有豐富的資源稟賦；窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美47路徑依賴論：“Althoughmosteconomistsignoretheproblemofdisorder,creatingorderisacentraltasktoestablishingthefoundationsoflongtermeconomicgrowthasthecontrastingexperiencesofLatinAmericaandtheUnitedStatesattests.”;“thepoliticalmechanismsofpathdependenceasacriticalfeatureofpoliticalandeconomiclandscapeonindependence.Britishcolonistsheldconsiderablepoliticalandeconomicfreedoms.Onindependence,theirpoliticalinterestsledthemtoseektopreservetheirsystemofpolitical,economic,andreligiousfreedom,andtheseinterestswerelargelyinharmony.Spanishcolonistsfacedconsiderablerestrictionsontheirpoliticalandeconomicfreedom.Thesecolonistsinevitablyclashedoverhowtocreateanewpoliticalorderoutoftheolderroyalsystemofcentraladministration.”-----DouglassC.North,WilliamSummerhill,andBarryR.Weingast*,“Order,DisorderandEconomicChange:LatinAmericavs.NorthAmerica”,1999窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美48產(chǎn)權(quán)制度缺失：“Governmentsmustcreatewaystolinktheirundergroundorinformaleconomiesintotheformaleconomy.Thepooractuallydoownenormousassetsintheirshantyhousesandmicro-businesseswhichareinvisibletothestate,buthavenowayofleveragingtheseassetsintocapitalduetothelackofaunified,legalpropertysystem.”----HernandodeSoto.Theotherpath:theinvisiblerevolutionintheThirdWorld.PerennialLibrary,1990窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美49殖民地制度差異論：“Europeansadoptedverydifferentcolonizationpoliciesindifferentcolonies,withdifferentassociatedinstitutions.Thechoiceofcolonizationstrategywas,atleastinpart,determinedbywhetherEuropeanscouldsettleinthecolony.InplaceswhereEuropeansfacedhighmortalityrates,theycouldnotsettleandtheyweremorelikelytosetupworse(extractive)institutions.Theseearlyinstitutionspersistedtothepresent.Differencesininstitutionsexplainapproximatelythree-quartersoftheincomepercapitadifferencesacrossformercolonies.“-----DaronAcemoglu,SimonJohnson,JamesA.Robinson“TheColonialOriginsofComparativeDevelopment:AnEmpiricalInvestigation”,2000“propertyrightsinstitutionshaveafirst-ordereffectonlong-runeconomicgrowth,investment,andfinancialdevelopment.Contractinginstitutionsappeartomatteronlyfortheformoffinancialintermediation.----DaronAcemoglu,SimonJohnson,“UnbundlingInsitutions”,2003

窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美50法律起源論：“Commonlawcountriesgenerallyhavethebest,andFrenchcivillawcountriestheworst,legalprotectionsofinvestors,withGermanandScandinaviancivillawcountrieslocatedinthemiddle.Concentrationofownershipofsharesinthelargestpubliccompaniesisnegativelyrelatedtoinvestorprotections,consistentwiththehypothesisthatsmall,diversifiedshareholdersareunlikelytobeimportantincountriesthatfailtoprotecttheirrights.LLSV,“LawandFinance”,1996窮國(guó)與富國(guó)差異——拉美VS北美51金融危機(jī)影響，TFP低增長(zhǎng)：LatinAmerica&AsiaCurrencyCrisisTheory；“Imagineplayingwordassociation-inwhichonepersonsaysawordorphrase,andtheotherissupposedtoreplywiththefirstthingthatpopsintohismind-withanexperiencedinternationalbanker,financeofficial,oreconomist.Untilveryrecently,andperhapseven