標普+基礎設施與能源展望

Coal

Gas

Nuclear

Infrastructure&Energy

August2022

Outlook

Thoughtful.Analytical.Consistent.Global.

Across-sectorlookattheenergytransition

Renewables

Oil

C

o

ntents

02EditorialWelcome

04OilDemandDrivenByDevelopingMarketsAsEnergyTransitionGathersPace

06ThermalCoalWillRemainImportantInAsia-Pacific

08Gas'RoleVariesBySectorAndRegionAmidSecurityOfSupplyConcerns

10

Nuclear'sPathIsDivergingInDevelopedAndDevelopingNations

12RenewablesRemainTheCornerstoneOfFuturePowerGeneration

15RatingUpdates

16Contacts

2

EditorialWelcome

EditorialWelcome:TheEnergyTransitionBecomesMoreComplexAmidGeopoliticalShiftsandSecurityofSupply

KarlNietvelt,HeadofGlobalInfrastructure&UtilitiesResearch

“Thecurrent

crisisisproviding

impetusto

renewables,

nuclearandmore

expensivegreen

solutionssuchas

hydrogen,biogas

orcarboncapture,

giventhefocuson

energysecurity.”

Visitour

InfrastructureHub

/

infrastructure

Astheenergytransitioncontinuestogatherpace,decarbonizationremainsakeypriorityforbothpolicymakersandmarketparticipants.YetRussia’sinvasionofUkrainehasthrusttheworld’sdependenceonhydrocarbons--andthecomplexityoftransitioningawayfromthem--intothespotlight.

Theconflictishavinganundeniableeffectonthetransitiontonet-zero.Soaringenergyandcommoditypricesarenowimmediatepriorities,andassuch,decisionmakersfaceatrilemma:balancingtheurgentneedtodecarbonizewithconcernsaroundenergyaffordabilityandsecurityofsupply.

Ofcourse,thesegoalsarenotnecessarilymutuallyexclusive.Thesignificantdisruptiontoglobalsuppliesofoilandgassofarthisyearhaveprovidedfurtherimpetustonon-fossilfuelpowergeneration,suchasrenewablesandnuclear.Atthesametime,policymakersmayreassessthevalueofsecurityofsupplyofferedbymoreexpensivegreensolutionssuchashydrogen,greengasesorcarboncapture,andtheimportanceofdiversityofenergysourcesratherthanthelowestcostoption.

TheEuropeanCommission’sREPowerEUstrategy,whichacceleratesthepushfornetzero,hasgainedfurthertractiongivenitalsotargetsmoreenergyindependencefromRussia.Thenew

planaimstohave1,236gigawatts(GW)ofwindandsolargenerationcapacityonlineby2030,upfromabout350GWofinstalledcapacitytoday.Inaddition,theplantargetsthataround

20%ofEuropeangasdemandwillcomefromalternatives,suchasbiogasandgreenhydrogen,by2030.

IntheU.S.,therecentlyapprovedInflationReductionAct(IRA)isagamechangerforcleanenergytechnology.Thelong-termextensionofwindandsolartaxcreditscreatestailwindsforrenewables,withwindandsolarcapacitylikelytoexceedourcurrent2030assumptionof510GW,upfrom225GWattheendof2021.Newfederalproductiontaxcreditsforexistingnuclearpowergenerationunitsandstandalonestoragearealsosignificantforthosesectors.Finally,thegreenhydrogentaxcreditisverysubstantial,andcouldmakegreenhydrogeneconomicadecadesoonerthanexpected.

Divergingpathstonetzero

InthiseditionofInfrastructure&EnergyOutlook,welookaheadathowtheenergytransitioncouldaffecttheenergymixto2030.

Amongthemainrecurringthemes--thespeedatwhichcountriesaretransitioningawayfromfossilfuelsisdivergingbetweendevelopedanddevelopingmarkets.Coal,forinstance,whichisalmostbeingphasedoutinEuropeandonaconstantlydecliningtrajectoryintheU.S.,willcontinuetobecrucialtoeconomicgrowthinAsia-Pacific.ChinaandIndiaaloneaccountfor70%oftheworld’scoaldemand,andrelativelyyoungercoalfleetsinAsiameanthatcoalwilllikelyserveasabaseloadfordecadestocome,whileincreasesinrenewablesmayonlybeable

3

EditorialWelcome

tocoverfortheregion’srapidpowerdemandgrowth.This,togetherwithprioritizingenergysecurity,willcomplicatetheenergytransitioninAsia-Pacific,andalsoexplainsChina’songoingpilotprojectstocaptureemissionsfromcoalfiredgeneration.

Whenitcomestonuclear,thereareveryfewnewinvestmentsintheU.S.andEurope,althoughmoresupporthasrecentlyemergedtoslowdownphase-outs.Incontrast,Chinaisacceleratingnucleargrowth--withitsnuclearcapacityprojectedtoreach105gigawatts(GW)by2030,surpassingboththeU.S.(92GW)andWesternEurope(76GW).Indeed,thecurrentproportionofnucleargenerationindevelopedcountries(60%)versusthatindevelopingcountries(40%)islikelytoreverseoverthenexttwodecades.

Weexpectoilwillcontinuetoplayanimportantrole,withglobaldemandsettocontinuetogrowuntil2030.Whiledemandforoilhasalreadypeakedindevelopedmarketsin2019,globaldemandgrowththisdecadeisbeingdrivenbyagrowingglobalmiddleclassindevelopingnationsandincreaseddemandformobility.Post-2030weexpectdemandforoilismorelikelytoplateauthanabruptlydecline,givenitsvitaleconomicroleandthetimeneededtotransitionawayfromoil-relatedassetsandinfrastructure.

Naturalgas,meanwhile,issettoretainitsbridgingroleasEuropeandtheU.S.transitiontolow-carbonenergy.InEurope,theoutlookhasbecomemoreuncertaingivenitspolicygoal

tomoveawayfromRussiansuppliesby2027

--thebulkofwhichwillneedtobeoffsetbyincreasedLNGimports.Gas-firedgeneration,whichaccountsfor36%ofglobalgasdemand,isclearlyfacingcompetitionfromrenewables,butnaturalgaswillremainimportantinpluggingseasonalfluctuationsinenergydemand,asbatteriesonlyprovideshort-timeenergystoragesolutions.Moreover,theindustrialuseofgasasarawmaterial--whichrepresentsalmost40%ofglobaldemand--willbemoredifficulttosubstitute,asitisoftenlinkedtoindustrialprocessesforchemicals,buildingmaterialsandplastics.

Lookingahead

In2020,renewableenergysourcesstill

onlyprovided13%ofglobalprimaryenergyconsumption.Butrenewablesnowaccountforthemajorityofannualinvestmentsinpowergenerationglobally,anditsshareinprimaryenergywillcontinuetoclimb,risingto18%bytheendofthedecade,accordingtoS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts).Inotherwords,by2030,renewableenergywillequateto60%ofprimaryenergycomingfromoil–comparedtojust25%adecadeago.

Theenergytransitioniswellunderway.Butitwilltaketimeandthepathaheadwillnotbestraightforward:climateeventscouldacceleratethepathtonet-zero,butsupply-demandbalancesofthebroaderenergysystemneedtobemanaged.Crucially,goingforward,economiccostsandsecurityofsupplywilllikelyplayamoreimportantpartinpolicytrajectories.

“Climateeventscouldacceleratepolicyactionstowardsnet-zero,buttransitioningawayfrompredominantlyhydrocarbon-basedeconomiesandinfrastructurewilltaketimeandsupply-demandbalancesoftheoverallenergysystemneedtobemanaged.”

4

Mil.barrels/day

SectorUpdates

OilDemandDrivenByDevelopingMarketsAsEnergyTransitionGathersPace

S&PGlobalRatings:ThomasAWatters;SimonRedmond;PaulJO'Donnell;KarlNietvelt;MassimoSchiavo;

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights:DanKlein;RomanKramarchuk

“Weexpectglobaloildemandgrowthtocontinueintothenextdecade,peakingat112millionbarrelsperday(mbpd),upfrom101mbpdthisyearasdevelopingmarketskeepexpanding.”

Globaloildemandgrowthissettocontinuethisdecade.Ithadalreadypeakedindevelopedcountriesin2019,beforethepandemic,butfurthergrowthwillnowbefueledbydevelopingcountries.Oildemandiscurrentlysettoreachitshighestlevelin2037--112.5millionbarrelsperday(b/d)--basedonS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)'referencecase(seechart1),versusthe101millionb/dprojectedforthisyear.

Thatsaid,ahostoffactorscouldplacetheactualpeakatanytimebetween2030and2040,sinceoildemandisprojectedtostayrelativelyflatafter2030.Ontheonehand,efficiencygainsandelectrificationwillcontinuetodepressoildemandgrowth.However,agrowingglobalmiddleclassandrelatedincreaseintransportationdemandwilloutweighthesemeasuresoverthenextdecadeormore.Inaddition,S&P

GlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)believesthepetrochemicalssectorwilllikelyremainavectorofgrowthonthebackofsteadydemandforchemicalsinmanynon-fuelapplications.

TransitioningAwayFromOilWillTakeTime

ChangestoconsumerbehaviorandmobilitypromptedbyCOVID-19,aswellasongoingeconomicvolatility,haveresultedinthetrajectoryofdemandgrowthbeingabout5millionb/dlowerthanthepre-pandemicprojectioninS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)'referencescenario.However,evenconsideringthissizabledecline,thecurrentoildemandtrendisfarfromconsistentwithlimitingglobalwarmingto2degrees,letaloneto1.5degrees--orindeedlowerinlinewiththeParisAccord.Globaloildemandneedstopeakby2025forglobalemissionstobeinlinewith

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)'2degree

trajectoryby2050.Underthislesslikelypathway,oilconsumptionwouldstillexceed87millionb/dby2040.

Theimpactoftheenergytransitionwillthereforelikelybemoregradualwhenitcomestooil--particularlyconsideringthatitunderpinsamajorpartoftheglobaleconomy.Moreover,therearelimitedimmediatealternativestooilinsomeusecases,unlikeforcoalandgas,whichrenewablescanreplaceinpowergeneration,forinstance.Equallyimportantisthattransitioningexistingcapitalstockandhydrocarboninfrastructurewilltakedecades,particularlyindevelopingcountries,giventhecostsinvolved.

Long-TermOilPricesCouldVaryWidelyBetween$40And$80PerBarrel

Lookingbeyondcurrentmarkettightnessandtheinevitablerecalibrationperiod,economiccostfundamentalsindicatethatthepriceofoilshouldsettlenear$55perbarrel(/bbl)inrealtermsaccordingtoS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)(seechart2).However,shouldgeopoliticaltensionsanddisruptionstooilsupplieslast,long-termoilpricescouldcertainlyclimbtoaverage$80/bblormore,atleasttemporarily.

Upwardpressureonlong-termoilpricescouldalsobeinfluencedbyincreasedclimate-relatedcostsforproducers,suchasvoluntaryorcompliance-relatedcarboncosts,orrequirementsforhigherreturnsoninvestments.Ontheotherhand,thereductionofoilproductioncostsandfurtherpolicyeffortstopushdownoildemandcouldseeoilpricesfalltothelow$50sorevento$40/bbl(inrealterms)undera2

OilDemandToRiseThroughThe2030s,DespiteCOVID-19Impact

120

100

CurrentprojectionPre-COVIDprojection2degreescenario

80

60

40

20

0

Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)

Copyright?2022byStandard&Poor'sFinancialServicesLLC.Allrightsreserved.

5

U.S.$perbarrel

CrudePrices:WhereDoTheyGoFromHere?

Brentcrudesince2000

SectorUpdates

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

Highcase/LowcaseBrentcrudehistorical

Mostlikelycase

(forecasts)

Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts).

Copyright?2022byStandard&Poor'sFinancialServicesLLC.Allrightsreserved.

degreescenario,withonlysupplyatthelowestcostabletocompeteinasmalleroilmarket.

InvestorsAreCallingForActionOnTheEnergyTransition

S&PGlobalRatingsseesadditionalpressureonoilcompaniesfromfinancialmarketsasaresultofenvironmentalconsiderations.Asahighlycapital-intensiveindustry,oilreliesheavilyonthecapitalmarketsfordevelopment,andweobservethattheinvestmentcommunityiscurrentlyusingitsinfluencetopushoilcompaniestoreduceScope1and2greenhousegasemissions.

Ratherthanasuddencut-offofinvestmentorfunding,weanticipateagradualincreaseinstandardsandrequirementsfromtheinvestmentcommunityandshareholders.Somebankshaveevenimplementedpoliciesthatpreventthemfromsupportingnewoildevelopments,butsometimesthisdoesnotprecluderefinancingdebtrelatingtoexistingprojects.Somesovereignwealthandpensionfunds,ontheotherhand,aredivestinginvestmentsintheoilindustryaltogether,butthisissofarnotawidespreadphenomenon.Thecurrentenergycrisishasmadeitclear

thatstrikingabalancebetweensecurityofoilsupplies,priceaffordability,anddecarbonizationisatrilemma.

OilMajorsAreAdaptingToEvolvingConditions

Factoringintheaboveheightenedrisks,

S&PGlobalRatingsreviseditscreditviewonindustryriskfortheoilsectorinJanuary2021.Nevertheless,large,diversifiedoilandgascompaniesstillhavestronginvestment-gradecreditratings,reflectingtheircontinuedcash-flowstrengthoverthenextdecade.Evenifoildemandundergoesaclimate-induceddeclineinthelongterm,cyclicaloilsupply-and-demanddynamicsbenefitfromtheOrganizationofthePetroleumExportingCountries'(OPEC)abilitytoadjustsupplies,aswellasfrominherentadjustments,inthatexistingoil

fieldsfaceanaturaldeclineof4-5%peryear,whichcompareswitha1.5%peryearaveragereductioninS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)'2-degreescenario.

Oilandgasproducersarealsoimplementingoperationalchangestorespondtotheenergytransition,andthisiswherecompaniesintheU.S.andEuropetendtodifferintheirapproach.ThoseinEuropearemorelikelytoconcentrateonrenewablesdevelopment,focusingonsolarandwind.U.S.companies,ontheotherhand,aremorelikelytoreducetheircarbonfootprintbyusingcarboncapture,biofuels,andlow-carbonoilfieldservicessuchaselectricity-poweredrigs.

“CreditrisksfortheoilsectorwillbepartlymitigatedbyOPEC'sabilitytoadjustsuppliesandbythetypicalannual4%-5%naturaldeclineofoilfields.”

6

SectorUpdates

ThermalCoalWillRemainImportantInAsia-Pacific

S&PGlobalRatings:AbhishekDangra;SimonRedmond;KarlNietvelt;MassimoSchiavo;

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights:RomanKramarchuk

“Demandforthermalcoalissettodeclineafterpeakingin2024ascoal-fueledpowerisincreasinglyreplacedwithrenewablesinEuropeandthe

U.S.”

Thereductionofcoaldemandwillbeslowandunevenacrossregions.Currently,coalaccountsforabout25%ofprimaryenergyglobally(andabouttwo-thirdsofthepowersector'sgeneration),butthisissettoreduceto21%by2030,andtrenddownthereafter,accordingtoS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)'referencescenario.Thatsaid,ChinaandIndiatogetheraccountfor70%oftheworld'scoaldemand,andthesteepriseinpowerdemandexpectedinthetwocountriesastheireconomiesexpandimpliesthatcoalgenerationisnotbeingdisplacedbyrenewables.Indeed,unlikeintheU.S.andEurope,renewableresourcesarenotsufficienttomeettheincreaseindemand.Otherindustrialsectors,suchascementandsteel,arealsoslowertotransition,butthefocusondecarbonizationisincreasing.

InEuropeAndU.S.,RisingRenewablesLeadsToFallingCoalUse

IntheU.S.,theshareofcoalinpowergenerationissettofallto12%by2030underS&PGlobalCommodityInsights(Platts)’referencescenario,fromcloseto20%afewyearsago.However,theU.S.isalsopayingincreasedattentiontothereliabilityofpower,whichcouldleadtodeferralsofsomecoalretirements--asrecentlyannouncedbythemid-continentregionoperator,MISO--tohelpmitigatetheriskofblackouts,withdiversityofthepowermixplayingakeyrole.

InEurope,climateandemissionsreductionpoliciesarethekeyreasonsfortheabruptdropincoal-firedpowertolessthan5%ofthemixin2030from15%in2020.TheriskofRussiangasinterruptionshas,however,temporarilydelayedtheretirementofcertaincoalplants,withsomedestinedtoactasareserveandthereforestayactiveforashortwhilelongerthanexpected.TheGermangovernment,forexample,isconsideringsettingupa10-gigawatt(GW)coal-firedpowergenerationcapacityreserve,whilemanyEasternEuropeancountriesarecurrentlystill

heavyusersofcoal,withlimitedprospectsforrenewablesdevelopment.

TheTransitionIsTakingADifferentTrajectoryInAsia-Pacific

EconomicrealitiesintheAsia-Pacificregionmeanthatanysignificantreductionincoalconsumptionwillprovechallenging.LargeAsianeconomiesareexperiencingastrongriseinelectricitydemand,whichissettocontinueoverthecomingdecadestosustaineconomicgrowth.Whenitcomestomeetingnewdemand,coalisstillseenasthemostaffordableoptionforbase-loadpower.Atthe26thU.N.ClimateChangeConference(COP26)inNovember2021,ChinaandIndiawerethetwomajorhold-outsoncoal,agreeingonlytophasedownratherthanphaseoutthefossilfuel.InChina,coal-firedgenerationwillremainrelativelyflatandelevatedthisdecade,althoughitsshareissettoreduceto51%ofpowergenerationby2030fromtwo-thirdstoday,withfastergrowthinrenewables.InIndia,coal-firedgenerationwillstillexpandsubstantiallythisdecadetomeetsoaringdemand.Thisisdespiteover40countriespledgingtophaseoutcoalatCOP26.

Asia'sfairlynewcoal-firedgenerationfleetisanotherreasonforitsreluctancetoturnitsbackontheenergysource.TheaverageageofacoalplantintheU.S.andEuropeisbetween40and50years,andmostarenowapproachingthenaturalendoftheirusefullifespans.Bycontrast,inAsia,muchofthefleethasbeenbuiltinthelast10years,makingsignificantplantclosuresunlikelybefore2030.

Theenergytransitionisalsonowmorecomplexbecauseofsecurityofsupplyandgeopoliticalconsiderations,exacerbatedbytheongoingRussia-Ukraineconflict.Inlinewithsuchconcerns,Chinahasdeclaredthat,althoughitsdecarbonizationeffortswillcontinue,energysecurityisitsfirstpriority.

7

Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday

GlobalCoalDemand

SectorUpdates

90,000

80,000

70,000

India

RestofAsiaOthers

U.S.

60,000

50,000

EuropeChina

40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Source:S&PGlobalCommodityInsights-GlobalIntegratedEnergyModel.

Copyright?2022byStandard&Poor'sFinancialServicesLLC.Allrightsreserved.

CarbonCaptureAndStorageMayHoldTheKeydemandiscurrentlysomewhatlowerthan

ToLong-TermCoalUsageInChinaanticipated,thoughcoalusehasalsorebounded

fasterthanexpected.

Fornow,withoutstrongcarbonpricingorpolicyS&PGlobalRatingsbelievesthatIndia,onthe

mandates,CCUStechnologyisunlikelytobeotherhand,willlikelymissits2022renewable

appliedinpowergeneration.Thatsaid,accordingenergycapacitytargets,anditsambitious2030

toChina'sofficial"CCUSannualresearchtargetswouldbeevenhardertoachievewiththe

report,"carboncaptureisChina'sindispensablecountrysettocontinueincreasingcoaluseuntil

"strategicchoice"forreducingcarbon-dioxide2050.

(CO2)emissionsandensuringenergysecurity

inthefuture.China'semissionsreductionfromChina'spolicyapproachismulti-faceted,serving

CCUScouldbe0.6billiontons-1.4billiontonsintodiscouragecoal-firedgenerationwhile

2050.Thesuccessofmeetingnetzerogoalsforencouragingrenewablesgrowth.WiththelaunchcountrieslikeChina,India,andIndonesiahingesofChina'scarbonmarketinthesummerof2021,significantlyonthefutureeconomicandtechnicalcoal-firedpowerplantswillneedtocomplyfeasibilityofCCUStechnology.withemissionstargets.Bycontrast,India's

policiesareaimedatmakingrenewablesand

Accordingtotheresearchreport,carboncapture,otheralternativesmoreattractiveratherthan

utilisationandstorage(CCUS)technologywouldpenalizingcoaluse.Inourview,Indiastilllacks

addChineserenminbi(RMB)0.26to0.4percomprehensiveenergytransitionpoliciesanda

kilowatthour(/kwh)(roughly$40to$60perclearcommitmenttophaseoutcoal.

megawatthour(/MWh))tothecostofcoal-fired

powergeneration.ThisisalmostthesameasCoal-RelatedSectorsFaceMountingCredit

China'shistoricalcoal-firedpowertariffofRMBRisksAndFinancingCosts

0.35-0.40/kwh,andcomparestocurrentpower

pricesofRMB0.50-0.60/kwh.Putdifferently,Financialmarketsareindependentlytaking

forCCUStechnologytobecompetitive,itwouldactionontheenergytransition,andoftenahead

requireacarbonpriceof$40-$60pertonofCO2,ofpolicymakers.ThepooloffundingforcoalwhereasChinesecarbonpricescurrentlytradeatprojectsisshrinking,withanincreasingnumberlessthan$10perton.Forreference,accordingtoofgovernments,financiers,andinvestorstheInternationalEnergyAssociation,thecostofdevotingmoreattentiontoclimaterisks.CCUStechnologyvarieswidelybetween$40andAlthoughleadingrichanddevelopingnations

$120pertonofCO2.haveagreedtostopfinancingoverseascoal-

firedpowerplants,thecurrentfocusonenergy

PolicyApproachesDifferBetweenChinaAndsecurityandhigherenergypricesiscreating

Indiasomehesitation.

ChinahaspledgedtoachievepeakcarbonDomesticbankfundingisstillavailableinChina

emissionsby2030andmaywellmeetthistargetandIndiabut,likeallotherfundingchannels,earlier,givenitstrackrecordofoverdeliveringonissteadilydecreasing.Withinvestorappetiteitsfive-yearrenewablestargets.Carbonemissiondiminishing,somecoalprojectsarestruggling

growthinthecountryhasstartedslowingsincetorefinance,withaccesstocapital--andnot

2012,whenlargerrolloutsofwindandsolarjustitsprice--increasinglybecominganissue,

capacitybegan.ThelingeringimpactofCOVID-19,heighteningtheriskthatsomeassetsmay

whichisstillleadingtolockdownsinAsia,couldbecomestranded,orevendefault.

helpmaketargetsmoreattainable,sinceenergy

“ThesuccessofmeetingnetzerogoalsforcountrieslikeChina,India,andIndonesiahingessignificantlyonthefutureeconomicandtechnicalfeasibilityofcarboncapture,usage,andstorage(CCUS)technology.”

8

SectorUpdates

Gas'RoleVariesBySectorAndRegionAmidSecurityOfSupplyConcerns

S&PGlobalRatings:EmmanuelDubois-Pelerin;AneeshPrabhu;LauraCLi;KarlNietvelt;MassimoSchiavo;

S&PGlobalCommodityInsights:RomanKramarchuk

“Demandforgasshouldkeeprisingthrough2030--fueledbyAsia,withdemandgrowthstableintheU.S.andstillhighlyuncertaininEurope.”

Inlightofsurgingglobalgasprices,securityofsupplyconcerns,andaweakeningeconomicoutlook,prospectsforgasdemandgrowthareuncertainbutsupportedbystrongdemandinAsia-Pacific.Naturalgasusedtomeetincrementalpowergenerationneedsmaybetheareawheredemandsoftensmost.Bycontrast,theuseofgasasarawmaterialinchemicalproductionwillbedifficulttosubstitute.Theindustrialsectorrepresentsalmost40%ofdemandglobally,withthepowersectoraccountingfor36%ofglobalgasuse.However,indifferentsectors,thiscanvarywidelybygeography.InEurope,forinstance,about40%ofgassuppliedhashistoricallybeenusedforresidentialorcommercialheating–almostdoubletheglobalaverage.

Naturalgas,whichemitsroughlytwotimeslesscarbondioxideperunitofenergythancoalwhenburnt,haslongbeenseenasanalternativetocoal-firedgeneration.Inthefuture,renewableswillincreasinglyhelpdisplacecoalinEuropeandtheU.S