棉花研究分析

棉花爭論分析分類：按長度來分，棉花分為長絨棉和細絨棉，細絨棉的長度一般在25~31毫米，長絨棉的長度在按長度來分，棉花分為長絨棉和細絨棉，細絨棉的長度一般在25~31毫米，長絨棉的長度在3399%23~333.3~54500~6400米/克。棉籽肥大，著生有灰白色短絨。Classification:(1)CottonbasicclassificationAccordingtothelength,cottonintolong-staplecottonandcotton,linencottonlengthgenerallyin25~31mm,thelengthoftheleadingproduceroflong-staplecottonin33mmandabove.Rawcottonfromabout99%inourcountryasthefinecotton.Normalmatureoffinecotton,colorwhite,whiteormilkywhite,fibersoftsilk,23to33mminlength,singlefiberstrength3.3~5g,finenessof4500~6400m/g.Hypertrophyofcottonseed,bornwithgreylinter.〔二〕棉花質(zhì)量主要指標品級。品級是指棉花品質(zhì)的級別。依據(jù)棉花的成熟程度、色澤特征和軋工質(zhì)量，773主體品級：含有相鄰品級的一批棉花中，所占比例80%及以上的品級。同一批棉花中，除了主體品級的比例到達80%及以上外，還不允許有跨主體品級的棉花。不符者應(yīng)挑包整理或協(xié)商處理?！沧ⅲ嚎缰黧w品級是指主體品級及其上下相鄰品級之外的其它品級，即同一批棉花中，不能有與主體品級相差2〕。如：一批棉花中，(1110%，280%，3102〔2〕110%，275%，315%，則該批棉花無主體品級〔沒有占到80%及以上的級別〕，需重整〔3〕190%，31019031長度。棉花長度是指棉纖維伸直后的長度。國家標準規(guī)定：以1毫米為級距，承受72525.92626.0—26.92727.0—27.92828.8—28.92929.0—29.93030.0—30.93131.0527276、725283．馬克隆值。這是反映棉花成熟程度和細度的綜合指標，國家標準規(guī)定分為A、B、C三個級，標準級是BA3.7-4.2；B3.5-3.6，4.3-4.9；C3.45.0(2)ThequalityofcottonmainindicatorsThegrades.Gradereferstothecottonqualitylevel.Accordingtothematuredegreeofcotton,colorcharacteristicsandtherollingqualityofwork,isdividedintosevenlevels,level7levelasbelow.Qualitystandardislevel3.Thesubjectgrades:abatchofcotton,containingadjacentgradeproportionofgradeof80%ormore.Withabatchofcotton,inadditiontosubjectgradeproportionreached80%ormore,alsonotallowedtohavecrosssubjectgradesofcotton.Inconsistentshouldchoosepackagesortingornegotiationprocess.(note:crosssubjectgradequalityreferstothesubjectanditsadjacentgradeotherthangrades,thatisthesameinthecotton,therecanbedifferwiththesubjectgradecottongradetwoandabove).Suchas:agroupofcotton,if(1)level1(10%),2(80%),3(10%),themainbodyofthebatchofcottongradeisgrade2.(2)ifthelevel1(10%),2(75%),3(15%),thenthisbatchofcottonwithoutsubjectgrades(no)accountedfor80%andabovelevel,needtorearrange.(3)ifthelevel1(90%),3(10%),whilethesubjectgradelevel1ratioof90%,butthereisalevel3cotton,isacrosssubjectofgrade1levelrange,thebatchofcottondoesnotaccordwiththerequirementofnationalstandard,needtorearrange.Length.Thecottonlengthreferstothelengthofcottonfiberafterthestraight.Standardregulationsofthestate:1mmasnotches,adopttheprincipleof“l(fā)ength“,isdividedintosevenlevels.Classificationisasfollows:25mm,including25.9mmandbelow;26mm,including26.0-26.9mm;mm,including27.0-27.9mm;mm,including28.8-28.9mm;mm,including29.0-29.9mm;mm,including30.0-30.9mm;mm,including31.0mmandabove.Level5cottonlengthis27mm,accordingto27millimeters;Level6or7cottonlengtharecalculatedby25millimeters.Thestandardlengthis28mm.Theincompatiblemicronaire.Thisiscottonmaturityandfinenessofcomprehensiveindex,thestandardprovisionsThisiscottonmaturityandfinenessofcomprehensiveindex,thestandardprovisionsofthestateisdividedintoA,B,Cthreelevel,standardlevelisclassB.Atalllevelsoftherangeis:ClassA:3.7-4.2;B:3.5-3.5,3.6-4.9;ClassC:andunder3.4,5.0andabove.〔三〕以下為我國各主產(chǎn)棉省推廣面積50萬畝以上的主要品種及育成品種〔系〕的介紹1〕魯棉品種2〕豫棉品種3)疆棉品〔3〕Theintroductionofcottonvarietiesinourcountrybelowforourcountrythemainareaofmorethan500000acres,themainvarietiesandbreedingnewvarieties(orlines)isintroducedasfollows：1)Shandong cotton 2)Henan cottonvarieties3)XinJiangCottonvarieties—魯棉品種—Shandong—魯棉品種—Shandongcottonvarieties—豫棉品種—Henan cottonvarieties—疆棉品種—XinJiangCottonvarieties價格走勢：棉價后市分析〔2023棉花市場分析及2023價格推測〕1、棉價走勢預(yù)期內(nèi)棉價仍將保持低位運行，上漲空間有限。策仍有期盼，因此存棉不賣。的快速增加，棉價后期仍會呈現(xiàn)下行趨勢。2、從國際方面看局部國家棉花種植面積增加，全球棉花庫存偏高，隨著棉花規(guī)模上市，國際迷仍將持續(xù)一段時間。圖二進口棉花價格指數(shù)與國內(nèi)棉花價格指數(shù)的比較3、從國內(nèi)市場來看13000/400/噸。疆站臺提貨價目前在14200-14400/噸，運至山東、河北的本錢價在14700-14900/噸，較上周下跌200元/噸，成交清淡。期貨市場方面，近期鄭棉CF1501合約、CF1505合約13000/噸下方運行，ICE60/磅下方波動，市場悲觀氣氛較濃。近期棉價大跌的主要緣由：1125日疆地區(qū)棉花加工已完成263余萬噸，入庫239.9萬噸，已接近總產(chǎn)量的30060060，12420社會庫存，由紡企、棉企、棉商共同分擔。但由于資金及經(jīng)營狀況方面的壓力，11纖維長度、馬值等指標不達標。11-121綜上所述，目前棉花價格已處于歷史低位，估量1120231一是農(nóng)業(yè)部數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年全國棉花種植面積比去年下降8.7%，全年棉花產(chǎn)量比上年有所削減;二是企業(yè)挺價，國內(nèi)一些大型棉商、軋花廠表示將堅持棉花報價不變，給市場帶來些許支撐。92023疆棉價格在13700-13800元/噸，內(nèi)地山東、江蘇、河南、河北等地倉庫報價14400-14600疆棉價格在13700-13800元/噸，內(nèi)地山東、江蘇、河南、河北等地倉庫報價14400-14600元/噸(毛重提貨)，但用棉企業(yè)詢價、選購的樂觀性仍不高。PricesTendency:Cottonprices(2023cottonmarketanalysisand2023priceforecast)1,ThecottonpricetrendforecastNationalcancelreservepolicythisyear,whetherfarmersandsellersorcottonspinningenterprise,isexpectedtodomesticcottonpriceswillremainlow,limitedupside.Cottonfarmerscomprehensivethought,thepriceofcottonandcottonfarmersfarthepoorpsychologicalexpectations,psychologicalseriousrised.Cottonfarmersknowverylittleaboutthestateshallpractiseatargetpricemanagementpolicy,thenationalrelevantpoliciesarestilllookingforwardtonext,sodon”tsellcotton.Processingenterprisesbelievethatthedomesticcottonpricesthisyearhasbeen“dive“,asthesizeofthecrop,rapidincreaseofsupply,priceswillstillbelatepresentsdownwardtrend.2,FromtheinternationalsidePartofthenationalcottonplantingareaincreased,globalinventoriesonthehighside,asthescaleofcotton,internationalcottonpricesfell.Atthesametime,foreignpriceslowerthandomesticcottonprices,cottonhasapriceadvantage,textileenterprisesprefergoodqualitylowpriceofcotton.Intheshortterm,thepatternoftheexcesssupplyofcottonisdifficulttoreverse,cottonpricesdownturnstillisexpectedtolastforaperiodoftime.Figure2importedcottonpricesanddomesticcottonpricesindexincomparison3,FromthedomesticmarketNovember10-nationalyarnquantitydeclinefortwoconsecutivemonths,hebeishangdongandhenanprovinceyarnpricesremainoscillationadjustmentpatternofthemarket,inordertoreduceinventories,machinestillnotsaturated,thedownstreamenterprises lack of demand for cotton, domestic cotton in a wave of pricecuts.ShandonglargeFangQihavecutcottonDaoChangJia,attheendofNovember3128gradecottonpriceshavedroppedto13000yuan/ton,down400yuan/tonfromlastweek.Xinjiangplatformdeliverypriceisin14200-14400yuan/ton,shippedtothecostpriceofshandong,hebeiin14700-14900yuan/ton,downfromlastweek200yuan/ton,lightvolume.Thefuturesmarket,therecentzhengcottonCF1501contracts,CF1505contractsarerununder13000 yuan/ton,ICEperiodcottonunder60cents/pound,marketpessimisticatmosphereisstrong.Themainreasonfortherecentcottonpricesplunge:Oneistheincreasedsupply.Sincemid-november,pickupcottonhandpickingcotton in xinjiang, focus on the market.As of November 25, xinjiang cottonprocessinghascompletedmorethan263tenthousandtons,2.399milliontonsofinventory,iscloseto66%ofthetotaloutput.Ifcombinedwith200typeenterprise,thepilotprogramofthe“targetprice“,FangQiprocessingfactoryproductionofcotton,isexpectedtoxinjiangcottonhasfinishedinatleast3milliontons.Second, the output and consumption imbalance.Three years,collection storageperiodforthemostpartprocessingcottonintotherepository.Iftheoutputof6milliontons,600000tonsofmonthlyconsumptiontocalculate,aftertheendofDecember4.2milliontonsofinventoryinasocietybyFangQicotton,cottonmills,tradersshare.Butasaresultofpressureoncapitalandoperatingsituation,mostFangQiadheretobuyalongwithit,somostoftheinventorypressurewillfocustocottonginningmillandcotton.EspeciallyinmidtolateNovember,cottonwassignificantly higher than that of sales, cotton ginning mill inventory continuestogrow.Thirdisthecottonqualityisunsatisfactory.Domesticcottonblendedmixlevelandthreeproblemssuchasserious,morecolorcotton,fiberlength,horsevalueindicatorssuchassubstandardhousing.AtpresentthereareprofessionalandCARDSinadditiontothe400typepackercottonfactory,buyasmallamountofstatereservecotton,thevastmajorityofprocessing enterprises purchase progress is slow.A large number of listedconcentrationofthecropinNovemberandDecember,whenthecottonpurchaseprices,priceformingpressingforJanuary.Tosumup,thepriceofcottonhasbeenhistoricallylow,isexpectedtotheendofNovembertoearlyJanuary2023cottonpriceswilltrendoscillationdip.Butisunlikelytodepthofcottonpricescontinuetofall,themainreasons:oneistheministryofagriculture,accordingtodatafromthenational cottonacreagethisyearthanlastyearfell8.7%,annualoutput