貿(mào)易開放度與經(jīng)濟增長：是出口導向型的增長還是進口導向型的增長外文翻譯（已處理）

貿(mào)易開放度與經(jīng)濟增長：是出口導向型的增長還是進口導向型的增長外文翻譯本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯原文外文題目:Tradeopennessandeconomicgrowth:isgrowthexport-ledorimport-led出處:AppliedEconomics2008,40,161?173作者:TitusO.Awokuse原文:Tradeopennessandeconomicgrowth:isgrowthexport-ledorimport-led?Mostpreviousinvestigationshaveonlyfocusedontheeffectofexportexpansiononeconomicgrowthwhileignoringthepotentialgrowth-enhancingcontributionofimports.Thisarticlere-examinestherelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthinArgentina,Colombia,andPeruwithemphasisonboththeroleofexportsandimports.Grangercausalitytestsandimpulseresponsefunctionswereusedtoexaminewhethergrowthintradestimulateeconomicgrowthorviceversa.Theresultssuggestthatthesingularfocusofpaststudiesonexportsastheengineofgrowthmaybemisleading.Althoughthereissomeempiricalevidencesupportingexport-ledgrowth,theempiricalsupportforimport-ledgrowthhypothesisisrelativelystronger.Insomecases,thereisalsoevidenceforreversecausalityfromgrossdomesticproductgrowthtoexportsandimportsI.IntroductionThepotentialbenefitofoutward-orientedtradepolicyforeconomicgrowthhasbeenthesubjectofmanyempiricalinvestigations.Althoughseveralstudieshavedemonstratedthetheoreticaleconomicrelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowth,disagreementsstillpersistsregardingthecausaldirectionandmagnitudeoftheeffectsBhagwati,1978;Edwards,1998.Thevastmajorityofthisliteraturefocusesonthecausaleffectofexportoneconomicgrowth.Themainquestionintheexportled-growthdebateiswhetheranexport-drivenoutwardorientingtradepolicyispreferabletoaninwardorientingtradepolicyinstimulatingeconomicgrowth.Someresearchersarguethatcausalityflowsfromexportstoeconomicgrowthanddenotesthisastheexport-ledgrowthELGhypothesis.Thereversecausalflowfromeconomicgrowthtoexportsistermedgrowth-ledexportsGLE.Thethirdalternativeisthatofimport-ledgrowthILGwhichsuggeststhateconomicgrowthcouldbedrivenprimarilybygrowthinimportsDespitethepotentiallyimportantroleofimportsandimportcompetition,relativelylittleattentionhasbeendevotedtothecausalrelationshipbetweenimportsandeconomicgrowth.Moststudiesontheeffectoftradeopennessongrowthhaveprimarilyfocusedontheroleofexportsandhavemostlyignoredthecontributionofimports.However,somerecentstudieshaveshownthatwithoutcontrollingforimports,anyobservedcausallinkbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowthmaybespuriousandthusmisleadingEsfahani,1991;Riezmanetal.,1996;ThangaveluandRajaguru,2004.Importsmaybeveryimportanttoeconomicgrowthsincesignificantexportgrowthisusuallyassociatedwithrapidimportgrowth.Furthermore,theexport-growthanalysesthatexcludeimportsmaybesubjecttotheclassicomittedvariableproblem.ThefundamentalcausalrelationshipmayactuallybebetweenimportsandeconomicgrowthAlthoughnumerousempiricalstudieshaveinvestigatedtheroleofexportsineconomicgrowth,theylargelyfocusedonAsianeconomies,withfewstudiesincludingLatinAmericacountries.Earlierintheireconomicdevelopmentpaths,manyLatinAmericaneconomiesmostlyfollowedprotectionisttradepoliciesemphasizingtheimportsubstitutionindustrializationstrategy.Thecurrentprevailingviewamongmostdevelopmenteconomistsisthattheimport-substitutionapproachisdetrimentaltoeconomicgrowthasitinherentlyfostersproductioninefficienciesandencouragesrent-seekingbehaviour.Inrecentyears,manyLatinAmericancountrieshaveexperiencedmajormacroeconomicandtradepolicyreformswithemphasisonmarketliberalizationandtradeopenness.ThefewexistingempiricalinvestigationsoftheeffectofopennessongrowthinthisregionhaveproducedmixedandinconclusiveresultsRiezmanetal.,1996;Xu,1996;Bahmani-OskooeeandNiroomand,1999;Richards,2001ThisstudyinvestigatesthecausalrelationshipbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthforthreeLatinAmericaneconomiesArgentina,ColombiaandPeruwithinanintegratedframeworkthatexplorestheroleofbothexportsandimports.Thisstudymakescontributionstotheliteratureinseveralways.First,incontrasttomostpreviousstudiesoftheELGhypothesis,thisstudyextendsthetraditionalneoclassicalgrowthmodelbyestimatinganaugmentedproductionfunctionthatexplicitlytestsfortheeffectofbothexportsandimportsoneconomicgrowth.RealexportsandimportsareincludedastwooftheendogenousvariablesinthecointegratedvectorautoregressionVARmodel.ThismodellingframeworkalsomakesitpossibletotestforboththeELGandILGhypothesesfortheseLatinAmericaneconomies.Second,thearticlealsoadoptsrecentadvancesintimeseriesmodellingbyspecifyingcausalmodelsbasedonvectorerrorcorrectionmodelsTodaandPhillips,1993.Thus,inadditiontotestingforGrangercausalitybetweenexports,importsandgrowth,long-runbehaviourcouldalsobeinvestigatedviacointegrationandimpulseresponsefunctionIRFanalysesTherestofthisarticleisorganizedasfollows.SectionIIprovidesabrieftheoreticalandempiricaloverviewofthetradeandgrowthrelationship.SectionIIIdiscussestheanalyticalframeworkandsomemethodologicalissues.SectionIVpresentsempiricalfindingsandSectionVcontainstheconcludingremarksII.Exports,ImportsandEconomicGrowthTheoreticalframeworkTherelationshipbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowthhasbeenattributedtothepotentialpositiveexternalitiesderivedfromexposuretoforeignmarkets.Morespecifically,exportscanbeviewedasanengineofgrowthinthreeways.First,exportexpansioncanbeacatalystforoutputgrowthdirectlyasacomponentofaggregateoutput.Anincreaseinforeigndemandfordomesticexportableproductscancauseanoverallgrowthinoutputviaanincreaseinemploymentandincomeintheexportablesector.Second,exportgrowthcanalsoaffectgrowthindirectlythroughvariousroutessuchas:efficientresourceallocation,greatercapacityutilization,exploitationofeconomiesofscaleandstimulationoftechnologicalimprovementduetoforeignmarketcompetitionHelpmanandKrugman,1985.Exportgrowthallowsfirmstotakeadvantageofeconomiesofscalethatareexternaltofirmsinthenonexportsectorbutinternaltotheoveralleconomy.Third,expandedexportscanprovideforeignexchangethatallowsforincreasinglevelsofimportsofintermediategoodsthatinturnraisescapitalformationandthusstimulateoutputgrowthBalassa,1978;Esfahani,1991RelativetothecaseforELG,expandedimportshavethepotentialtoplayacomplementaryroleinstimulatingoveralleconomicperformance.Itisplausibletoassumethattheeffectofimportsoneconomicgrowthmaybedifferentfromthatofexports.Forinstance,inmanysmallopendevelopingeconomies,importsprovidemuchneededfactorsofproductionemployedintheexportsector.Also,thetransferoftechnologyfromdevelopedtodevelopingcountriesviaimportscouldserveasanimportantsourceofeconomicgrowth.Endogenousgrowthmodelsshowthatimportscanbeachannelforlong-runeconomicgrowthbecauseitprovidesdomesticfirmsaccesstoforeigntechnologyandknowledgeGrossmanandHelpman,1991;CoeandHelpman,1995.ForeignR&Dknowledgecouldbeanimportantsourceofproductivitygrowthascutting-edgetechnologiesareusuallybundledwithimportedintermediategoodssuchascomputers,precisionmachinesandequipments.Thus,foreignimportsaresourcesoftechnology-intensiveintermediatefactorsofproductionLawrenceandWeinstein,1999;Mazumdar,2001.Inasense,importsasamediumoftechnologytransfermayplayamoresignificantroleoneconomicgrowththanexportsTradeopennessandeconomicgrowthInaddition,beyondservingasavehiclefortechnologytransfer,importscanalsoaffectproductivitygrowththroughitseffectondomesticinnovationviaimportcompetition.Anincreaseinimportpenetrationexposesthedomesticfirmstoforeigncompetition.Althoughtheimpactofimportpenetrationmaydifferacrossdomesticindustries,importsareimportanttoproductivitygrowthbecauseincreasedimportsofcompetingproductsspurinnovationasdomesticproducersrespondtothetechnologicalcompetitivepressurefromforeigncompetitionLawrenceandWeinstein,1999ReviewoftheempiricalliteratureSincetradetheorydoesnotprovideadefinitiveguidanceonthecausalrelationshipbetweentradeandoutputgrowth,thedebateisusuallyinformedbyinferencesbasedonanecdotalintuitionandempiricalanalyses.Thereisextensiveliteraturefocusingontherelationshipbetweentradeandgrowthwithmanyespousingtheadvantagesofoutward-orientedtradepolicies.Thesestudiesemphasizethebenefitsofexportpromotionoverthedisadvantagesofinward-orientedtradepoliciesofimportsubstitutionindustrializationadoptedbyseveraldevelopingcountriespost-WorldWarIIBalassa,1978.Theyciteasevidencethesuccessoftheoutward-orientedAsianeconomiese.g.HongKong,Korea,SingaporeandTaiwanincontrasttotheeconomicfailuresofinward-orienteddevelopingcountriese.g.IndiaandLatinAmerica.MostLatinAmericancountriesmaintainedtheirinward-orientedtradepoliciesuntilthe1980swhentheywereforcedbyinternationallendingagenciese.g.InternationalMonetaryFundandtheWorldBanktoadoptcomprehensivestructuraladjustmentprogramsthatemphasizedeconomicreformsandmarketliberalizationpoliciesThevolumesofempiricalevidenceontheELGhypothesishaveshownthatthereisanotablelinkbetweengrossdomesticproductGDPgrowthandexportgrowth.Butcontroversiesstillsurroundthedirectionofcausality.AlthoughmoststudiesfocusondevelopingcountriesBalassa,1978;Sheehey,1992,severalresearchershavealsoexaminedtheELGhypothesisforindustrializedcountriesSharmaetal.,1991;Ghartey,1993;Awokuse,2003,2006;DarandAmirkhalkhali,2003.WhilesomeresearchersfoundevidenceinsupportoftheELGhypothesis,otherseitherfoundevidenceinsupportofthealternativeGLEhypothesisorinseveralcasestheempiricalevidenceindicatedabi-directionalcausalrelationshipVandenBergandSchmidt,1994;Xu,1996;Riezmanetal.,1996;GilesandWilliams,2000Earlierstudiesthatanalysedthelinkbetweentradeandeconomicgrowthprimarilyfocusedontheroleofexportsandmostadoptedabivariatecorrelationmodellingframework.Later,severalcross-countystudiesexaminedtheexport-growthnexuswithinaneoclassicalgrowthmodellingframeworkBalassa,1978;Ram,1987.Mostofthesecross-sectionalstudiesfoundasignificantandpositiverelationshipbetweenexportperformanceandnationaloutputgrowth.Forinstance,JungandMarshall1985appliedGrangercausalityteststodatafrom37developingcountriesandfoundweaksupportfortheELGhypothesis.InasimilarcausalitystudybyChow1987,hefoundstrongbi-directionalcausalrelationshipbetweenexportgrowthandindustrialgrowthineightnewlyindustrializingcountriesHowever,resultsfromearlierstudiesusingordinaryleastsquaresregressionandsimplecorrelationcoefficienttestshavesignificantlimitationsasthecorrelationsmaybespuriousbecausetheyfailedtoaccountforthedata’sdynamictimeseriespropertiese.g.unitrootsandcointegration.Also,theresultsarelimitedtoshowingonlythatexportsgrowthandGDPgrowtharecorrelated,butcouldnotprovideinformationonthedirectionofcausality.Theissueofcausalityisdynamicinnatureandisbestexaminedusingadynamictimeseriesmodellingframework.Furthermore,theimplicitassumptionofsameproductionfunctionacrossdifferenttypesofeconomiesmaybeunrealisticastheleveloftechnologymayvaryacrosscountriesAidedbyrecentadvancementsintimeseriesmodellingtechniquescointegrationanderrorcorrectionmodels,therehasbeenanincreaseincountry-specificstudiesfocusingontherelationshipbetweenexportperformanceandeconomicgrowthBiswalandDhawan,1998;Richards,2001;Awokuse,2003,2006.Thesemorerecentstudiesaddressthemethodologicalissuesofnonstationarityofvariablesandexplicitlyaccountsfortheexistenceoflong-runcointegratingrelationshipsbycorrectlyapplyingerrorcorrectionmodellingECMtechniques.Ingeneral,empiricalevidencefromthesestudiesoftheELGhypothesishasbeenmixed.Whileseveralofthesestudieshavedocumentedempiricalevidencesupportingtheexistenceofalong-runrelationshipbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowthsomeothershaverejectedtheELGhypothesisInthecontextofLatinAmericaneconomies,severalearliercross-sectionalstudiesincludedthesecountriesJungandMarshall,1985;Ram,1987.However,fewrecentcountry-specificstudieshaveexaminedtherelationshipbetweenexportsandeconomicgrowthinLatinAmericausinganaugmentedneoclassicalproductionfunctionandmoderntimeserieseconometrictechniquesVandenBergandSchmidt,1994;Richards,2001.Forexample,Bahmani-Oskooeeetal.1991appliesbivariateGrangercausalityteststoexaminetheELGhypothesisfor20developingcountriesover1951?1987annualdataandfoundthatPeru’sdatasupportstheELGhypothesiswhileabi-directionalcausalrelationshipwasfoundfortheDominicanRepublicandParaguay.VandenBergandSchmidt1994alsoinvestigatedtheELGhypothesisfor16LatinAmericancountriesandfoundcointegrationin11ofthe16countriesexamined.Specifically,theyfoundapositiveandsignificanteffectofexportsoneconomicgrowthinColombiaandPeru,butnosignificanteffectwasfoundforArgentina.Inanotherstudyinvolving32developingcountriesincludingsomefromLatinAmerica,Xu1996usedbivariateGrangercausalitytestsanderrorcorrectionmodelstoexamineexportandeconomicgrowthrelationships.HefoundsupportfortheELGhypothesisinColombia,butnotforArgentinaRiezmanetal.1996investigatedtheELGhypothesisfor126countries.Usingannualdataover1950?1990,theyfound‘thatstandardmethodsofdetectingELGusingGrangercausalitytestsmaygivemisleadingresultsifimportsarenotincludedinthesystembeinganalysed’.Inbivariatecausalityanalysis,theELGhypothesiswasconfirmedforonly16ofthe126countriesandthenumberofcasesincreasedtojust30aftercontrollingforimports.InthecaseofLatinAmericancountries,theyfoundsupportfortheELGhypothesisforonlyfourcountriesCostaRica,Honduras,SurinameandUruguay.NosignificantELGevidencewasfoundforthethreecountriesinthiscurrentstudyArgentina,ColombiaandPeru.Itwouldbeinterestingtoexamineiftheseresultsstillholdforpost-1990LatinAmericandata.譯文:貿(mào)易開放度與經(jīng)濟增長:是出口導向型的增長還是進口導向型的增長過去的研究很多僅僅集中在擴大出口對經(jīng)濟增長的影響,而忽略了進口對促進增長的潛在貢獻。本文重新審視了阿根廷、哥倫比亞、秘魯貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長之間的關系,同時又注重進口與出口產(chǎn)生的作用。格蘭杰因果關系檢驗法和脈沖響應函數(shù)用來研究貿(mào)易增長是否刺激經(jīng)濟增長(或相反)。該結果表明,過去的研究聚焦在出口作為經(jīng)濟增長的單一發(fā)動機可能是種誤導。雖然有一些實證支持出口導向型經(jīng)濟增長,實證支持進口導向型的經(jīng)濟增長的假設也相對增多。在某些情況下,也有進出口對國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長存在反向因果關系的實證。前言外向型貿(mào)易政策對經(jīng)濟增長的潛在利益一直以來都是許多實證調(diào)查的主題。雖然有幾個研究證明貿(mào)易與經(jīng)濟增長的理論經(jīng)濟關系,就因果關系研究方向和影響程度方面,分歧仍然存在的(Bhagwati,1978年;愛德華茲,1998年)。絕大多數(shù)文獻集中在出口對經(jīng)濟增長的因果效應分析上面。出口導向型增長爭論的主要問題是,在推動經(jīng)濟增長方面,出口導向型對外定向的貿(mào)易政策是否比進口導向型對外定向的貿(mào)易政策更可取呢?一些研究人員在爭論出口與經(jīng)濟增長的因果關系流向,并表示把出口拉動經(jīng)濟增長作為出口導向經(jīng)濟增長(ELG)假說。反向因果流向即經(jīng)濟增長促進出口增長,被稱為經(jīng)濟增長導向的出口(ELG)假說。第三種選擇是進口帶動經(jīng)濟增長(ILG),這表明經(jīng)濟增長可能主要受到進口增長影響。盡管進口貿(mào)易和進口競爭潛在的重要作用,相關地不太注重一直致力于進口貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟增長之間的因果關系。在大多數(shù)貿(mào)易開放對經(jīng)濟增長的影響研究主要把重點放在出口的作用上,大多忽視了進口的貢獻。然而,一些最近的研究表明,如果不控制進口,出口和經(jīng)濟增長之間的因果關系的一些觀察模式可能是虛假的,因此誤導(Esfahani,1991年;Riezmanetal.,1996;Thangavelu和Rajaguru,2004)。因為重大的出口增長與進口增長分析可能受到遺漏經(jīng)典變量的問題。最根本的因果關系實際上可能是進口與經(jīng)濟增長的關系。雖然有大量的實證研究調(diào)查出口對經(jīng)濟增長的作用,他們主要集中在亞洲經(jīng)濟體,包括少量的拉美國家的一些研究。此前,在他們經(jīng)濟發(fā)展道路上,許多拉美經(jīng)濟體大多遵循貿(mào)易保護主義政策,強調(diào)進口替代的工業(yè)化戰(zhàn)略。當前在眾多發(fā)展經(jīng)濟學家中最普遍的觀點是,進口替代的方法對經(jīng)濟增長有害,因為它本質(zhì)上助長生產(chǎn)效率低下的生產(chǎn)方式和鼓勵尋租的行為。近年來,許多拉美國家經(jīng)歷了在強調(diào)市場自由化和貿(mào)易開放的基礎上重大的宏觀經(jīng)濟和貿(mào)易政策的改革。少量存在的幾個關于開放對經(jīng)濟增長的影響的實證調(diào)查在該范圍產(chǎn)生了混合和不確