世界銀行-支持工人擺脫煤炭轉(zhuǎn)型的選項

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JOBSNOTES

IssueNo.16

OPTIONSTOSUPPORTWORKERSTHROUGHATRANSITIONAWAYFROMCOALINEASTERNWIELKOPOLSKA

BACKGROUND

EasternWielkopolskaisanareathatiseconomicallyheavilydependentoncoalandenergyproduction(itgenerates5percentofPoland’selectricity)andischaracterizedbythepresenceofthemostpollutingplantsintheregion:greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsintheEasternWielkopolskaamountedto7.62millionMgin2019,about62percentofallemissionsinWielkopolska.Theenergypovertyandthechallengeofchangingtheheatingstructureofbothprivateandpublicbuildingsarepressing.1TheZEPAKCapitalGroupisthebiggestemployerintheregionandthelargestprivateenergygroupinPoland,consistingofentitiesactinginthefieldofligniteextraction,powergenerationfromconventionalandrenewablesources,heatproduction,andelectricitytrading.LigniteminingactivitiesareplannedtoshutdowninKWBKonin(operatingintheareaofKoninandKola)by2030andinthreepowerplantsoperatedbytheZEPAKCapitalGroupby2024.2Theregion’sambitionistotransitionoutofcoal-basedenergyproductiontowardgreenenergyaspartoftheregionalsmartspecializationoftheGreaterPolandvoivodeshipandoftheKoninsubregion:renewableenergysources(RES)andmodernenergytechnologies,includinghydrogen.

TheEuropeanUnion(EU)committedtoglobalclimatepoliciesincludingthosedeclaredintheParisAgreement(2015)andtheEuropeanGreenDeal(EGD),agrowthstrategyaimedatachievingcarbonneutralityby2050intheEU.TheintermediatetargetistoreduceGHGemissionsby55percent(comparedto1990levels)by2030,inlinewiththeEU’sNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC).3TheJustTransitionMechanism(JTM)willhelpmobilizeabout€100billionofinvestmentsover2021–2027tosupportMemberStatesachievetheambitioustargetssetundertheEGD.TheJustTransitionFund(JTF)—pillar1oftheJTM—representsakeyfinancialinstrumentformitigatingthesocialandemploymentimpactsofthecoaltransitionofcarbon-intensiveregions.TheKoninsubregioninEasternWielkopolskaisidentifiedasoneofthecoalregionseligibleforJTFsupport.4CoalregionsmayaccessanddisburseJTFresourcesonthebasisoftheirTerritorialJustTransitionPlan(TJTP).

AccordingtothePartnershipAgreement2021–2027adoptedonNovember30,2021,yettobeagreedwiththeEuropeanCommission(EC),theMinistryofFundsandRegionalPolicyistheManagingAuthorityofthe

1AccordingtoClimateNeutralityStrategyofEasternWielkopolska(2021)about100,000buildingsneedrenovationinEasternWielkopolskaandanestimated20,000familiesareenergypoor,consumingmorethan10percentoftheirincomeonenergy.

2TheKWBAdamówcompletedtheoperationsinFebruary2021.

3(EC2019).CommunicationfromtheCommissiontotheEuropeanParliament,theCouncil,theEuropeanEconomicdSocialCommitteeandtheCommitteeoftheRegions,theEuropeanGreenDeal,COM/2019/640.

4OnlyprojectsineligibleJTFregionsatNUTS3levelqualify.

2

OptionstosupportworkersthroughatransitionawayfromcoalinEasternWielkopolskaMARCH2022

JTFnationalprogramandtheregionaladministrations(MarshalOffices)actasintermediarybodies.Theeligibilitycriteriaofpotentialprojectsandthetimelinefordisbursementarenotyetdefined.5EligiblebeneficiariesarenotstrictlydefinedindedicatedJTFregulation.Inprinciple,therefore,anytypeofpublicorprivatelawentity,asdefinedintheCommonProvisionsRegulation,qualifies,althoughlargeenterprises(thatis,otherthansmallandmediumenterprises[SMEs])canreceiveJTFsupportforproductiveinvestmentsonlyinlimitedcases.Eligibleactivitiesinclude(a)thosedirectlylinkedtoaddressingthesocial,employment,economic,andenvironmentalimpactsofthetransitiontocarbonneutralitytargetsand(b)thosethatcontributetotheimplementationoftheTJTP.Intermsofsocialprotectionandlabor,eligibleJTFinterventionsinclude(a)upskillingandreskillingofworkersandjobseekers,(b)jobsearchassistancetojobseekers,(c)labormarketinclusionofjobseekers,and(d)otheractivitiestopromotesocialinclusion.TheJTFcannotfinanceearlyretirementschemesorcompensationschemesforworkerswhohavebeenlaidoff.

ThedraftTJTPforEasternWielkopolskafor2021–2027(October2021version)statesthreeobjectives:(1)buildingazero-emission,dynamiccirculareconomy;(2)ensuringanintegrated,high-qualityenvironmentandeconomicspace;and(3)promotinganactivesocietythroughaccesstosocialservicesandawarenessofgreenandjusttransition.TheTJTPproposedinterventionstoachieveobjective1includingoutplacementservicesforworkersatriskoflosingtheirjobbecauseofthetransition;supportforbusinessstart-up,researchanddevelopment(R&D),andforexistingSMEstoadapttochangingtechnologiesandcreatenewjobs;andinvestmentineducationinstitutionsfromearlychildhoodtohigher

education.TheTJTP(andthereforeJTF-supportedinterventions)isenvisionedaspartoftheRegionalOperationalProgram2021–2027forWielkopolska.

TheWorldBankisprovidinganalyticalandadvisory servicestoimprovethecapacityofPolishcoalregions tomanagethecleanenergytransitionaspartoftheSupportPolishCoalRegionsinTransitiontechnicalassistance(TA)withsupportfromECDGEnergy.TheTA supportsmedium-tolong-terminterventionstoensurea‘justtransition’awayfromcoal—suchasanationalapproachtoreclamationandrepurposingofbothformermininglandsandphysicalassetsanddevelopmentof regionaleconomicdiversificationstrategiesinsomecases,theestablishmentofgovernancestructuresto implementthetransitionoverthecomingdecades,andthedevelopmentofstrategiestohelpaffectedworkerstransitiontonewemploymentopportunities.Withrespecttolaboraspects,theTAgeneratednewknowledgeontheprofileofworkersatriskoflosing theirjobduetothemineclosures,anassessmentofthepotentialindirecteffectsofmineclosureontheirsupplychainstoinformemployment,technicalandvocationaleducationandtraining(TVET)andsocialpoliciestomanagethereallocationandreskillingofworkersineachofthethreecoalregions(Silesia,LowerSilesiaandEasternWielkopolska).Finally,theTAsupports thedesignofpilotprojectseligibletobefinanced throughECfinancinginstrumentsandtheirreadiness forimplementation.Thispolicynoteispreparedin thecontextofComponent3oftheTAtoassistKoninAgencyforRegionalDevelopment(ARR)toreview,assess,andexploitsynergiesacrossalternativedraftprojectproposalsandtodevelopacomprehensive‘outplacementprogram’forworkersoftheZEPAKCapitalGroupandotherworkersindirectlyaffectedbythetransitioninpartnershipwithkeystakeholders.

5BasedonthePartnershipAgreementadoptedbytheCabinetofMinistersonNovember30,2021,theimplementationoftheJTFwilltakeplacewithintheframeworkofanationalprogramandwillincludeactionsofanationalandregionalnature.EachregionwillhaveitsownpriorityaxisinalignmentwithobjectivesidentifiedinTJTPs.TheMinistryofFundsandRegionalPolicyistheManagingAuthorityofthenationalprogramandregionaladministrations(MarshalOffices)actasintermediatebodies.Theroleoftheregionswouldgobeyondatypicalmandateofanintermediatebodyastheywouldbedefactoinchargeoftheentiredecision-makingprocess(relatedtotheirpriorityaxis):startingwithprojectselection,contractingofprojects,andoverallfinancialmanagement.Theministrywouldplayacoordinatingroleandberesponsiblefortheimplementationofthehorizontalpriorityaxisfinancedfromthenationalenvelope.Inearly2022,itwasdecidedthattheimplementationofJTFregionalenvelopeswillbemanagedbyregionalauthoritiesasanintegralpartoftheirRegionalOperationalPrograms2021–2027.

3

OptionstosupportworkersthroughatransitionawayfromcoalinEasternWielkopolskaMARCH2022

InOctober2021,KoninARRsubmittedtotheWorldBankthreedraftprojectfiches6fortheimplementationofoutplacementsupportundertheTJTP7withaspecificrequesttoreviewthem,identifycomplementarities,andproviderecommendationsonacoordinatedapproachtomanagethetransitionofaffectedworkers.8Giventheoverlapsacrossthethreeproposalsinobjectives,targetpopulation,andproposedoutplacementinterventions,theWorldBankwasrequestedtorecommenddesignoptionsbasedoninternationalbestpracticeandtoproposefeasibleimplementationarrangementsforasingleoutplacementprogrammanagedbyasingleauthorityresponsibleforthecoordinationwithotherkeystakeholdersandaccountableforresults.

TheobjectiveofthispolicynoteistoprovideanoverviewofthethreedraftprojectproposalsandtorecommendkeydesignprinciplesandimplementationarrangementoptionsforacoordinatedoutplacementprogramintheEasternWielkopolskaregionthatwouldprovideapackageofservicestomotivateandhelpaffectedworkersfindsuitablejobsinalignmentwiththeTJTP.ThefocusofthenoteisoninterventionssupportingthesocialandlabortransitioninEasternWielkopolska,ratherthantheeconomic,spatial,andenergytransformationswhicharealsopartoftheJTMPillar1.Effortstopromotelocaleconomicdevelopmentandenvironmentalrehabilitationofaffectedsubregionsaswellastodevelopstakeholderengagementandpubliccommunicationstrategiesarebeyondthescopeofthisnote.

ThepolicynoteisbasedonthedraftprojectfichessubmittedtotheWorldBankandonbilateralandmultilateralconsultationsheldbetweenmid-October2021andmid-March2022withKoninARRandtheauthorsofthefichesincludingtheheadsofseveralZEPAKCapitalGrouptradeunions,theZEPAKCEO

adviser,representativesoftheAssociationforSocialCooperatives,thechairmanoftheEmployeeCouncilofPAKKWB‘Konin’,theInstituteoftheGreenFutureinKonin,representativeofJobsFirst,andtheRegionalLaborOffice(LO)inPoznan′(Annex1).

CONTEXT

Locallabormarkets

ThesubregionofEasternWielkopolska,wheremostoftheregion’sminingactivityisconcentrated,hasbeenidentifiedasanareaparticularlyvulnerabletothecleanenergytransition.Thefivelargestminingcompaniesaccountforabouthalfofthetotalemploymentandmorethan75percentofrevenues.Theemployeesofthesecompanieswillbedirectlyaffectedbythetransitiontowardclimateneutrality.Theeconomicandsocialconsequencesoftheenergytransformationareexpectedtobehighestinthefollowingfivecounties(powiats):Konin,Koni′nski,Kolski,S?upecki,andTurek.Theyhavetheheaviestdependenceonfossilfuelexploitationandhigh-emissionprocesses.9

WhilepopulationdynamicsinWielkopolskahaveremainedprettystableoverthepasttwentyyears,withastablelevelofworking-agepopulation,demographicpatternsintheEasternWielkopolskasubregion10arechanging.Theworking-agepopulation,274,000peoplein2020,hasbeenshrinkingduetobothageingandoutmigration.ThedepopulationhasbeenparticularlylargeinKonin,thelargestmunicipalityinthesubregion,wheretheoverallpopulationdroppedby12percentinthepasttwentyyears.11TherisingunemploymentintheKoninmunicipalitywasthemainpushfactorcausingtheoutflowofresidentstofindemploymentinotherregionsorabroad.

6Preparedby(a)ZEPAKCapitalGrouptogetherwithZEPAKtradeunions(outplacementproject);(b)Employees’Council(representingZEPAKemployeesoftheofPAKKWBKoninS.A.plant)andanNGOInstituteoftheGreenFuture(outplacementproject);and(c)AssociationforSocialCooperatives(GreenSolidaritySocialCooperativesproject).

7WiththeexceptionoftheonepreparedbyZEPAKtradeunionsassignedtotheNationalJustTransitionPlan(NJTP).

8Includingworkerswhowerelaidoffsincethebeginningof2018andarestillunemployed.

9Churski,Perdal,andBurchard2021.

10EasternWielkopolskahasabout430,000,12percentoftheGreaterPolandregion.

11Therewere82,640residentsintheKoninmunicipalityin2000and72,539in2020(GUS).

4

OptionstosupportworkersthroughatransitionawayfromcoalinEasternWielkopolskaMARCH2022

Infact,whileregional(GreaterPoland12)labormarketindicatorscomparequitefavorablywithEU-27averages,13theEasternWielkopolskasubregionislaggingbehind.TheregisteredunemploymentrateinEasternWielkopolskain2020was6.9percent(andashighas9.7percentinKonincounty)comparedto3.7percentinGreaterPolandand6.3percentinPoland;thelaborforceparticipationisonly49.5percentcomparedto57percentinGreaterPolandand56percentinPoland;theemploymentrateinEasternWielkopolskain2020was45percent,significantlylowercomparedto54percentinGreaterPoland(basedonG?ównyUrza?dStatystyczny[GUS]data).

TheemploymentstructureofEasternWielkopolskaischaracterizedbyahighshareofworkersinagricultureandalowshareinservices.Agricultureaccountsforone-thirdofemploymentinEasternWielkopolskacomparedto18percentnationally;servicesaccountsfor38percentcomparedto53percentatthenationallevelandindustryaccountsfor29percentofworkers,mostlyinminingandenergy(Instrat2021).Jobsintheservicessectorhaveincreasedinthepastyears(withtheexceptionoftheKoninmunicipality).Withinindustry,theconstructionandindustrialprocessingsectors,especiallythefurniture,metal,andfoodindustries,havealsoexhibitedstrongjobgrowthintheregion(IBS2021).

ThestructureoftheEasternWielkopolskaeconomyreflectsahighdegreeofspecializationincoal-basedextractiveandenergyindustries.Miningandenergysectoractivityhasledtothedevelopmentofothereconomicactivitiesdirectlyrelatedtominingandenergyproduction(intheirsupplychain)andindirectlyrelatedtoservices.14ThediscontinuationofminingactivitiesinKWBKoninwithintheZEPAKCapitalGroupisexpectedtoresultinjoblossesandpossiblyfurtheroutmigration,inadditiontolocaleconomic

slowdown.Negativesocialandemploymentimpactsinthesubregionareexpectedtoaffectworkersandtheirfamiliesbothdirectly(ZEPAKdirectworkers)andindirectly(workersandSMEsinsectorswithhighdependencyoncoal-basedpowergenerationandligniteminingproductiontechnologiesandservicesrelatedtotheseemployeesatriskoflosingtheirjob).

TheZEPAKCapitalGrouphasakeyroletoplayinthesocialandlabortransition(inadditiontotheenergyandeconomictransition)asmanyjobswillbelostandnewonescreated.TheZEPAKCapitalGroupisthebiggestemployerinEasternWielkopolska.ZEPAKCapitalGroupemployed8,700workersin2011and3,593asofOctober2021.ZEPAKCapitalGroupemploymentdeclinedby21percent(about1,000workers)inthepasttwoyears(Figure1)anddownsizingisexpectedtocontinueoverthenextfiveyears.

ZEPAKCapitalGroupworkersaccountfor1.2percentoftheentireworking-agepopulationintheKoninsubregionasofendof2021;theyrepresentalargepercentageofworking-agepopulationespeciallyinthemunicipalitiesofTurek(closeto6percent)andKleczewandKazimierzBiskupi(closeto5percent)andoftotalemployment,especiallyinKazimierzBiskupi(closeto40percent)andWilczynorWierzbinek(about30percent).TheshareoftheunemployedregisteredwithLOsintheworking-agepopulationisalsohighestinthoselasttwomunicipalities,around6percent(Figure2).

ZEPAKCapitalGroupworkersarelesseducatedthantheaverageeducationattainmentintheregion.Asoftheendof2019,nearly40percentoftheZEPAKCapitalGroupworkforcehadeitherprimaryorvocationaleducation(ascomparedto34percentand28percentinGreaterPolandandPoland,respectively),38percenthadsecondaryeducation,and22percenthighereducation,basedonZEPAKCapitalGroup

12Wielkopolska.

13RegionallabormarketindicatorsbasedonLFSsurvey(whichdoesnotproviderepresentativestatisticsatthesubregionallevel)arecomparabletonationalandEU-27averages:theemploymentratewas71percentinGreaterPolandand69percentnationwide,againstanEU-27averageof69percent(Eurostat,lfst_r_lfe2emprt);theunemploymentrateinGreaterPolandwas1.8percentand3.2percentinPoland,lowerthantheEU-27averageof6.3percentin2020(Eurostat,lfst_r_lfur2gan);andthelaborforceparticipationinGreaterPolandis72percentand71percentinPoland,comparedto73percentaverageinEU-27(Eurostat,lfst_r_lfp2actrtn).

14TheminingandenergysectorinGreaterPolandisverticallyintegrated,andmostactivitiesarecarriedoutbytheZEPAKCapitalGrouportwosubsidiariesdirectlyintegratedintheZEPAKCapitalGroup(PAKGórnictwoandPAKSerwis)whichemployabout2,200people(IBS2021).

5

Kazimierz

Biskupi

Wilczyn

Wierzbinek

Kramsk

Kleczew

Skulsk

?lesin

Brudzew

Golina

Sompolno

Ostrowite

Rychwa?

W?adys?awów

Konin

Tuliszków

Turek

Przykona

Krzymów

StareMiasto

Rzgów

S?upca

OptionstosupportworkersthroughatransitionawayfromcoalinEasternWielkopolskaMARCH2022

Figure1

ZEPAKCapitalGroupemploymentdeclineinthepasttwoyears

–21%

–165

–55

0

4,5004,4674,4674,4124,2–125–124

4,0003,8423,7173,593

3,5003,0002,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

Q42019Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021

Others(PII,VOLT,PolishHydrogenBus)

PAKMining

KWBKoninKWBAdamówPAKService

ZEPAK

Mining

Energy

Source:ZEPAKCapitalGroup.

Figure2

ZEPAKCapitalGroupworkersasashareoftotalemploymentandshareofregisteredunemployed,bymunicipalityofresidence

7%45%

40%

6%

35%

5%

30%

4%25%

3%20%

15%

2%

10%

1%

5%

00

Shareofregisteredunemployedintotalworkingagepopulation

ShareoftheZEPAKemployeesintotalemployment(Rightaxis)

Source:WorldBankteambasedonZEPAKCapitalGroupdataandGUS.

6

OptionstosupportworkersthroughatransitionawayfromcoalinEasternWielkopolskaMARCH2022

administrativedata.ZEPAKCapitalGroupworkersaremostlymen(91percent).Mostareolderworkers,with41percentagesbetween41and50and35percentolderthan50.Itisestimatedthatone-thirdoftheworkforce(1,200employees)willhavepensionrightsby2025andmorethanhalfoftheworkforce(55percent)willhaveearnedtheirretirementrightsby2030,coincidingwiththeendofthecoal-basedoperations(InstratFoundation2021).

EarningsinZEPAKareabout30percenthigherthantheaveragewageinWielkopolskaregionandhavebeenrisingovertime.TheaveragegrossmonthlysalaryintheZEPAKCapitalGroupbetween2013and2019increasedfromalmostPLN4,800toPLN5,500,about8percenthigherthantheregionalandnationalaverageremuneration(InstratFoundation2021).Generally,coalhourlywagestendtobesubstantiallyhigherthanhourlywagesinothersectors.Thehighminingwagedistortsthelabormarketbyimpedinglaborreallocationtoothersectors.Inthecontextofcoalphaseout,thehighwagesofmineworkersdriveuptheirreservationwages,potentiallyreducingtheirwillingnesstotakeotherjobs.

TheZEPAKCapitalGroupisexpectedtodownsizeto1,500employeesinnettermsbytheendof2024;someworkerswillberetrainedwhilenewjobswillbecreatedinthenewrenewableenergyprojectsZEPAKCapitalGroupisinvestingon.However,theemploymentreductionintheZEPAKCapitalGroupby2024asaresultofscalingdowntheoperationofligniteminesandpowerplantswillbefasterthantherateofnormalretirementofemployeesandthanthespeedatwhichnewjobswillbecreated.ZEPAKestimatesthat2,356workerswilllosetheirjobinthenextthreeyears(Figure3).AftertheliquidationofKWBAdamówligniteminein2021,twooutofthreeminingopencastsoperatinginKWBKoninligniteminewillcloseandabouttwo-thirdsofinstalledcapacityinthepowerplantwillbediscontinuedand,after2025,thepotentiallycontinuedoperationofPa?tnówIIPowerPlantwillrequireamuchsmallerworkforcepool.

ThejoblossesareexpectedtobespatiallyconcentratedinthemunicipalitieswheremostZEPAKCapitalGroupworkerslive(KazimierzBiskupi,Wierzbiniek,Kleczew,Wilczyn,Konin,andTurekmunicipalities),whichoverlapshowingweaklabormarketindicators.Infact,almostall(98percent)ZEPAKCapitalGroupemployeesliveinEasternWielkopolska,30percentofwhomcommutefromthemunicipalityofKoninwheretheregisteredunemploymentratewasalreadyabouttwiceashighasintheentirevoivodship.InTurek,withtheclosureofAdamówplant,thelayoffprocesswasterminated.

TheZEPAKCapitalGroupestimatesthat511newjobswillbecreatedaspartoftheinvestmentsinthreenewprojects15undertheirnewgreenstrategy.ThenewjobswouldrequiretheupskillingandreskillingofsomeoftheworkersexpectedtoremainemployedintheZEPAKCapitalGroup;inotherwords,existingworkerswhoarewillingtocontinuetoworkintheZEPAKCapitalGroupwilleithertransitiontootheroccupationsorperformdifferenttaskswithinthesameoccupationwithintheZEPAKCapitalGroup.Thetimelinefortheimplementationofthethreenewprojectsremainsclear;amismatchcouldarisebetweenthetimingofdismissalsandwhenthenewjobsarecreated.

Todatenoestimatesareavailableonhowmanyworkerswillbeneededtocarryoutactivitiesrelatedtotheclosureofminesandreclamationoflandduringthenextthreeyears.However,whentheprocessofclosingtheAdamówplantstartedinJuly2020therewere130employees,inJuly2021therewere113employees,asofDecember2021therewere10employees,andin2022therewillbenoemployees.Employeeswereneededtopreparetheembankment,leadthemachinesoutofthepit,dismantlesomeparts,andsecurethesemachines.About150–160employeesofPAKGórnictwoweredealinginparticularwithreclamation,drainage,andelectricitysupply,theywere90asofDecember2021andin2022about60–65employeeswilldealwiththecompletionofthereclamationprocess.

15BasedonthedraftproposalsubmittedtotheWorldBank.InOctober2020,theZEPAKCapitalGrouppublishedanewstrategytoradicallychangethedirectionofthegroup’sdevelopment,inwhichitdeclaredthegradualclosureofexistinglignitediscoveries,theabandonmentofnewcoal-firedpowerplants,andtheclosureofcoal-firedpowerplantsby2030.ThenewdirectionincludesthedevelopmentofPoland’sfirsttechnologicallyadvancedelectrolyzemanufacturingplant(aTPCcoolermodulefactoryandheatpumpcompetencecenter),thedevelopmentofamanufacturinglineforserialproductionofaPolishhydrogenbusforpassengerurbantransport,andtheproductionofgreenhydrogenusingpost-coalinfrastructureofPa?tnów-Adamów-KoninPowerPlantComplex.

7

Employment?gure(populationsize)

323

OptionstosupportworkersthroughatransitionawayfromcoalinEasternWielkopolskaMARCH2022

Figure3

ZEPAKCapitalGroupprojectedemploymentchangebetween2021and2024

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

1,404

974

–77%

–15%

–74%

646–51%

706

600

314

250

113

ZEPAKSAKWBKoninKWBAdamówPAKGórnictwoPAKSerwis

Employment?guresasof28Feb.2021Employment?guresprojectedfor31Dec.2024

Source:ZEPAKCapitalGroupad