P190閱讀理解43Forecasting Methods天氣預(yù)報(bào)的方法

rr-190閱讀理解+43ForecastingMethods天氣預(yù)報(bào)的方法復(fù)習(xí)要求|閱讀判斷（）概括大意與完成句子（）閱讀理解（）補(bǔ)全短文（）完型填空（）近幾年已考只看問題（丿）其他（）詞匯forecaster|（天氣）預(yù)扌報(bào)員|climatology氣候?qū)W|precipitatio|（雨、雪、冰雹等的）降下：降水量；降雨量scenario某事物（件）的模式，狀況Forecasting預(yù)言，預(yù)報(bào)Methods方法天氣預(yù)報(bào)的方法（一）Theretocreate[dependsareseveral幾個(gè)的；專有的；各自的；分別的differentmethodsthatcanbeusedaforecast預(yù)報(bào)，預(yù)測(cè)；預(yù)示.Themethod方法aforecaster（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員chooses（一）Theretocreate[dependsupon】依靠the?experienceoftheforecaster（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員,在…上面；當(dāng)…時(shí)候經(jīng)驗(yàn)（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員,the③theamount量of②informatio信息available可用的totheforecasterlevel水平ofdifficultythattheforecast預(yù)告situation情形presents岀現(xiàn),andthe④degree程度ofaccuracy精確orconfidence】置信度neededintheforecast.天氣（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員,the③（二）Thefirstofthesemethodsisthepersistence持續(xù)method;【thesimplestway】最簡(jiǎn)單ofproducing產(chǎn)生aforecast.Thepersistencemethodassumes假設(shè)thattheconditions條件【atthetime】時(shí)間oftheforecastwillnotchange改變.Forexample,ifitissunnyand87degreestoday,thepersistencemethodpredictsthatitwillbesunnyand87degreestomorrow.Iftwoinchesofrainfeltoday,thepersistencemethodwouldpredicttwoinchesofrainfortomorrow.However,ifweatherconditionschangesignificantly2顯著地（二greatly二considerably）ofromdaytoday,thepersistencemethodusually[breaksdown】3岀問題，岀故障（二fail）andisnotthebestforecastingmethodtouse.種方法是持續(xù)性方法，這是制作天氣預(yù)報(bào)最簡(jiǎn)單的辦法，持續(xù)性方法假設(shè)，在天氣預(yù)報(bào)時(shí)條件是不會(huì)發(fā)生改變的，例如，如果今天是晴，87華氏度，持續(xù)性方法會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)明天也是晴天，87華氏度，如果今天的降水是2英寸，持續(xù)性方法會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)明天的降水也是2英寸，然而，如果天氣情況一天天明顯變化，持續(xù)性方法會(huì)出錯(cuò),所以這不是制作天氣預(yù)報(bào)的最佳方法。（三）Thetrends流行；趨勢(shì)methodinvolves牽涉；表明determining確定；決定；（使）下決心，（使）做岀決定4thespeedanddirection方向；趨勢(shì)ofmovementforfronts5鋒,highandlowpressure壓力；壓（力）；氣壓centers,andareasofcloudsandprecipitatio（雨、雪、冰雹等的）降下：降水量；降雨量n.Usingthisinformation消息；信息，數(shù)據(jù)；通知；知識(shí),theforecaster（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員canpredictwhereheorsheexpectsthosefeatures6tobeatsomefuturetime.Forexample,ifastormsystem制度；體系，系統(tǒng)；身體；方法is1,000mileswestofyourlocation定位；位置，場(chǎng)所；外景andmovingtotheeastat250milesperday,usingthetrendsmethodyouwouldpredictittoarriveinyourareain4days.Thetrendsmethodworkswellwhensystems7continuetomoveatthesamespeedinthesamedirectionforalongperiodoftime.Iftheyslowdown,speedup,changeintensity,orchangedirection8,thetrendsforecastwillprobably大概；或許；很可能；備不住notworkaswell.趨勢(shì)性方法包括測(cè)定鋒運(yùn)動(dòng)的速度和方向，高低壓的中心和多云，降水地區(qū)，利用這些信息，預(yù)報(bào)員能預(yù)測(cè)將來的某個(gè)時(shí)間某個(gè)地區(qū)會(huì)出現(xiàn)同樣特征的天氣情況，例如，一個(gè)風(fēng)暴在你居住地以西1000英里且以每天250英里的速度向東移動(dòng)，運(yùn)用趨勢(shì)性方法，你能預(yù)測(cè)這個(gè)風(fēng)暴四天以后將達(dá)到你所在的地區(qū)，當(dāng)某一大氣現(xiàn)象長(zhǎng)時(shí)期以同一速度向同一方向運(yùn)動(dòng)時(shí)，趨勢(shì)性方法很有效，如果他們減速加速，強(qiáng)度變化或者方向轉(zhuǎn)變，這種制作天氣預(yù)報(bào)的方法可能不準(zhǔn)確。（四）Theclimatology”候?qū)Wmethodisanothersimplewayofproducingaforecast.Thismethodinvolves牽涉；表明，包含averaging拉平價(jià)格，為取得更高的平均價(jià)格而買進(jìn)［賣岀］;求平均值weatherstatistics統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字；統(tǒng)計(jì)，統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)，統(tǒng)計(jì)法，統(tǒng)計(jì)資料accumulated蓄積的，累積的overmanyyearstomaketheforecast.Forexample,ifyouwereusingtheclimatologymethodtopredicttheweatherforNewYorkCityonJuly4th,youwouldgothroughalltheweatherdatathathasbeenrecorded記錄，錄音，拍攝foreveryJuly4thandtakeanaverage平均的；平常的；典型的.Theclimatology氣候?qū)Wmethodonlyworkswellwhentheweatherpatternissimilartothatexpectedforthechosentimeofyear.Ifthepattern模式；圖案；花樣,樣品；榜樣，典范isquiteunusualforthegiventimeofyear,the|climatology|氣候?qū)Wmethodwilloftenfail.氣候?qū)W方法是另一種制作天氣預(yù)報(bào)的簡(jiǎn)單辦法，這種方法通過計(jì)算多年來累積的大氣狀況統(tǒng)計(jì)值的平均數(shù)來制作預(yù)報(bào)，例如，如果你用氣候?qū)W方法來預(yù)測(cè)七月四日紐約的天氣情況，你會(huì)瀏覽每年七月四日紐約的大氣數(shù)據(jù)記錄，然后計(jì)算平均值，氣候?qū)W方法只有當(dāng)天氣情況與所選時(shí)間的大氣情況相似時(shí)才有效，若天氣情況和所選時(shí)間的天氣情況非常不同，運(yùn)用氣候?qū)W方法通常會(huì)失敗。（五）Theanalog類似物，同源語methodisaslightly輕微地，輕輕地；細(xì)長(zhǎng)地，苗條地；〈罕〉輕蔑地；粗，復(fù)雜morecomplicatedmethodofproducingaforecast.Itinvolves包含；使參與，牽涉；圍繞，纏繞；使專心于examiningtoday'sforecastscenario某事物（件）的模式，狀況andrememberingadayinthepastwhentheweatherscenario某事物（件）的模式，狀況lookedverysimilar相似的；類似的；同樣的；同類的（ananalog9相似物）.Theforecaster（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員wouldpredictthattheweatherinthisforecastwillbehavethesameasitdidinthepast.Theanalogmethodisdifficulttousebecauseitisvirtuallye事實(shí)上impossibletofindapredictanalog.Various各種各樣的；多方面的；許多的；各個(gè)的，個(gè)別的weatherfeaturesrarelyalignthemselvesinthesamelocations位置，場(chǎng)所astheywereintheprevioustimell.Evensmalldifferencesbetweenthecurrent電流；趨勢(shì)；水流；涌流timeandtheanalogcanleadtoverydifferentresults相似物方法是有點(diǎn)復(fù)雜的制作天氣預(yù)報(bào)的方法，它包括測(cè)量今天的天氣狀況和回想過去和今天天氣狀況相似的一天，預(yù)報(bào)員會(huì)預(yù)測(cè)現(xiàn)在大氣將發(fā)生和過去那天同樣的變化，相似物方法很難被應(yīng)用，因?yàn)槭聦?shí)上不可能找到所期望的同樣的天氣狀況，各種不同的大氣特征極少同時(shí)出現(xiàn)在與上次出現(xiàn)時(shí)同樣的地點(diǎn)，即使現(xiàn)在的天氣狀況與其過去的相似物有一點(diǎn)小差別都會(huì)造成不同的結(jié)果。Whatfactor因素isNOTmentioned提到inchoosin選擇aforecasting預(yù)報(bào)method方法?選擇預(yù)測(cè)方法時(shí)沒有提到什么因素？AImagination想象oftheforecaster（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員.預(yù)測(cè)者的想象力BNecessary必要amountofinformation.必要的信息量。CPractical實(shí)踐knowledgeoftheforecaster（天氣）預(yù)報(bào)員.預(yù)測(cè)的實(shí)踐知識(shí)DDegree程度ofdifficultyinvolved涉及inforecasting.預(yù)測(cè)的難度。Persistencemethodwillworkwell持久化方法將很好的工作Aifweatherconditionschangegreatlyfromdaytoday.女口果天氣條件變化很大。Bifweatherconditionsdonotchangemuch.如果天氣條件不改變太多。Consunnydays.在陽光燦爛的日子里。Donrainydays.在雨天。Thelimitation限制ofthetrends趨勢(shì)methodisthesame一樣asthepersistence持續(xù)方法methodinthat趨勢(shì)方法的局限性和持久性方法是一樣的Aitmakespredictionsaboutweather.它對(duì)天氣作了預(yù)測(cè)。Bitmakespredictionsaboutprecipitatio降水量；降雨量n.這使得預(yù)測(cè)降水Ctheweatherfeatures特征needtobewelldefined.天氣特征需要很好的定義。Dtheweatherfeaturesneedtobeconstantforalongperiodoftime.天氣特點(diǎn)需要很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間常數(shù)。Whichmethodmayinvolvehistorical歷史weather天氣data數(shù)據(jù)?哪種方法可能涉及歷史天氣數(shù)據(jù)？AThetrendsmethod.趨勢(shì)法。BTheanalog相似物method.模擬方法。CBothclimatology氣候?qū)Wmethodandanalog相似物method.氣候?qū)W方法和模擬方法。DThetrendsmethodandthepersistencemethod.趨勢(shì)方法和持久性方法。Itwillbeimpossibletomakeweatherforecastusingtheanalogmetho利用模擬方法進(jìn)行天氣預(yù)報(bào)是不可能的Awhenthecurrentweatherscen