電信定價(jià)的馬爾可夫完美均衡

電信定價(jià)的馬爾可夫完美均衡電信定價(jià)的馬爾可夫完美均衡郝朝艷平新喬電信定價(jià)的馬爾可夫完美均衡郝朝艷平新喬），1參見(jiàn)《電信競(jìng)爭(zhēng)》（CompetitioninTeleco），），我們這里從動(dòng)態(tài)角度考慮電信定價(jià)問(wèn)題，引入了馬爾可夫完美均衡（MarkovPerfectEquilibrium）的概念。馬爾可夫完美均衡簡(jiǎn)單來(lái)說(shuō)要滿(mǎn)足條件概率分布只依賴(lài)于現(xiàn)在的狀態(tài)而與過(guò)去的狀態(tài)獨(dú)立。用數(shù)學(xué)語(yǔ)言可以表述討論的馬爾可夫完美均衡是指從博弈樹(shù)的任何一點(diǎn)開(kāi)始，每個(gè)廠商以各自預(yù)期利潤(rùn)貼現(xiàn)值的最大化為目標(biāo)，給定廠商和其他廠商的后序行動(dòng)，這個(gè)廠商的策略是納什均衡，廠商的策略函數(shù)滿(mǎn)足馬爾可夫性質(zhì)。完美均衡，作為未來(lái)理想電信價(jià)格的預(yù)測(cè)值，以此為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)判斷現(xiàn)在的電信價(jià)格模擬均衡價(jià)格。由于本文中使用的數(shù)據(jù)是我國(guó)動(dòng)通訊市場(chǎng)上，在位者是中國(guó)移動(dòng)通信和中國(guó)易組織后有潛在進(jìn)入者競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的情況，我們從市們現(xiàn)在只能模擬出市場(chǎng)中最多有四個(gè)廠商的情行業(yè)中有四家廠商的情況是能夠說(shuō)明問(wèn)題的。討論了商品是異質(zhì)和同質(zhì)的情況：即投資改變變廠商的生產(chǎn)能力（capacity在討論投資改變廠商生產(chǎn)能力時(shí)，假設(shè)了不（RecursiveMethodsinEconomicDynamics,NancyandRobertE.Press,CambridgeM本文所涉及到的文獻(xiàn)主要集中于兩個(gè)方面：第一、關(guān)于馬爾可夫完美均衡JeanTirole在MarkovPerfectEquilibrium中詳細(xì)介紹了馬爾可夫完美EricMaskin和JeanTirole在80年代末發(fā)表了三篇很有影響的將馬爾可夫完美均衡的概念應(yīng)用于動(dòng)態(tài)壟斷理論的文章。在ATheoryofDynamicOligopoly,I:OverviewandQuantityCompetitionWithLargeFixed參與者即寡頭的策略?xún)H僅依賴(lài)于他的對(duì)手目前所承諾的行為。這篇文章的主要目的是用動(dòng)態(tài)博弈模型分析固定成本很高的自然壟斷行業(yè)。文章假設(shè)了兩個(gè)廠衡的存在和唯一性。基本結(jié)論是：在達(dá)到均衡時(shí)，行業(yè)中只有一個(gè)廠商存在，如果折現(xiàn)率不是很低，為了阻止競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者進(jìn)入行業(yè)，在位者的產(chǎn)量會(huì)高于純寡頭壟斷的情況。而這個(gè)動(dòng)態(tài)模型的另外一個(gè)應(yīng)用就是EricMaskin和JeanTirole的ATheoryofDynamicOligopoly，II：PriceCompetition,KinkedDemandCurves,andEdgeworthCycles。文章中馬爾可夫完美均衡的概念與上面的含義有所不同：廠商的策略只由參與者的行動(dòng)決定，每個(gè)參與者的價(jià)格決額，直到價(jià)格戰(zhàn)的成本變得非常高或者某個(gè)不相容并且存在需求的網(wǎng)絡(luò)外部性，那么在位者迫使在位者降低價(jià)格。文章討論馬爾可夫完美均夫完美均衡存在的條件。當(dāng)馬爾可夫完美均衡存如果其他條件均相同，原來(lái)具有較高市場(chǎng)份額的假設(shè)，在此假設(shè)條件下，廠商之間的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更另一篇文章ExperienceGoods,S三、理論模型：我們?cè)谶@里直接引用了ArielPakes和PaulMcguire的模型沒(méi)有做任何修4這些程序可以通過(guò)以下方式的到：用ftp連接到“用“anonymous”作為用戶(hù)名，使用者的者真實(shí)性名我們記行業(yè)外標(biāo)準(zhǔn)效率水平的變化為η,它服從概率分布。企業(yè)投資使得在每個(gè)時(shí)期，廠商的收入由廠商的效率水平和行業(yè)內(nèi)企業(yè)的個(gè)才開(kāi)始得到收入。進(jìn)入者在進(jìn)入行業(yè)時(shí)，要進(jìn)成本，用表示。進(jìn)入者比較沉沒(méi)成本和未來(lái)預(yù)V(ω,s)=max[{R(ω,s;x)+},φ]；，，（在下面我們介紹的模型中，假設(shè)了廠商提供的76均衡的定義和詳細(xì)證明請(qǐng)參考ArielPakes&PaulMcguire,“Markov-PerfectIndustryDynamics:AFrameworkforEmpiricalWork”,ReviewofEconomicStudies,(1995)62,61-82.7參考ArielPakes&PaulMcguire,“ComputingMarkov-perfectNashequilibria:numericalimplicationsofadynamicdifferentiatedproductm我們使用Gauss程序進(jìn)行模擬，首先需要確定模擬時(shí)用到的參數(shù)值。表一表一:模擬使用參數(shù)的名稱(chēng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)含義ModelPrimitivesmonopolyMaximumnumberofactivefirHighestefficiencylevelattainableStaticParametersSplinepointforutilitydifferentialStatenumber/capacityconstraintrationumericalimplicationsofadynamicdifferentiatedproducEconomicsVol.25,No.4Winter1994,564-571.I.DynamicParametersDiscountfactorInvestmentefficiencyprobabilitydistributionProbabilityofoutside擇monopoly，表明我們模擬的是廠商之間共謀的情況，這時(shí)廠商追求所：，12、Scrapvalue，廠商退出行業(yè)時(shí)的剩余資本，在這里用剩余資本與企業(yè)初始時(shí)總資本的比率表13、Entrysunkcostty17、Investmentmultiplier，即中的α,它的大小衡量了投資提高效率水平的概率分布。從函數(shù)形式我們可以知道，是α的減函數(shù)，即α越高，投資提高效率水平的概率就越小。），通信成本的平均值（元/小時(shí)）作為初始值）；），），MSER-SquareParameterEstimatesVariableDFIntercept1DFERootMSEEstimateStandardErrortValue<.0001<.0001>因此，使用目前得到的全部數(shù)據(jù)估的需求函數(shù)為：。由于模擬使用的程序前面的系數(shù)變?yōu)椋?，乘以是作比例放縮。表三-1：Marginalcost變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=3;delta=9四舍五入取整數(shù)主要是考慮到模擬程序的要求。p表三-2：Marketsize變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=3;delta=Market12468從上表中可以看出，隨著市場(chǎng)的增大，均衡價(jià)格減小，但均衡價(jià)格的變化表三—3：Splinepointforutilitydifferential變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=3;delta=從上表可以看出，隨著分段函數(shù)分割點(diǎn)的增大，均衡價(jià)格逐漸增加，這種表三-4：Statenumber/capacityconstraintratio變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------表三-5：Startingnumberofactivefirms變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=3;delta=表三-6：Scrapvalue變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=3;delta=表三-7：Sunkcost取值范圍的變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFIC---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------SCRAPVALUE:ENTRYA------表三-8：Efficiencylevelatwhichfirmsenter變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-表三-9：Investmentmultiplier變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:delta=aaa45862表三-10：Probabilityofoutsidealternativerising變動(dòng)對(duì)均衡價(jià)格的影響---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=3從上表可以看出，外部效率水平標(biāo)準(zhǔn)提高的概率增加，均衡價(jià)格增加，并---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differentiatedproducts)EQUILIBRMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------從上表中可以看出，模擬的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)均衡價(jià)格越---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(dMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAPROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=Meanandstddevprice-costmargin:％（）我們用獲得數(shù)據(jù)中最近8個(gè)月的數(shù)據(jù)重新估計(jì)需求函數(shù)和重新計(jì)算邊際成本，并使用上面確定的參數(shù)值進(jìn)行模擬預(yù)測(cè)。之所以重新計(jì)算需求函數(shù)和邊際成本是利用最新的樣本數(shù)據(jù)以便更準(zhǔn)確的描述所分析廠商的目前的經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境。ModelDescriptionMSER-SquareVariableDFRootMSEEstimate>根據(jù)模擬程序?qū)?shù)值的取值范圍的限制，我們?cè)诜匠痰膬蓚?cè)同時(shí)乘以。乘以），對(duì)于模擬的結(jié)果，我們首先按照行業(yè)中廠商的個(gè)---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality/capacityMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:1/2/3M---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMAverageprice/marginalcostAverageone-firmconcentratDiscountedproducersurMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS=1---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(diffeMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:1MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:SPLIN---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=Numberofperiodswithnfirmsactive,n=0,1,2...:040Numberofperiodswithexit:0Numberofperiodswithentry:0NumberofperiodswithentryMeanandstddevprice-costmargin:Meanandstddevone-firmconcentration:CurrentlyactivefirmshavMeanconsumersurplus:Meanproducersurplus:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------monopolyMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRM---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAM---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRM---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAM---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:1MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MA---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAM---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------monopolyMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:1MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMMeanandstddevone-plantconcentration:Currentlyactiveplantshavelivedandearned:Meanconsumersurplus:Meanproducersurplus:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:capacitMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:1MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:1DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberNumberofperiodswithofperiodswithMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS=2---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:SPLINEPOI---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberperiodswithNumberperiodswithNumberperiodswithNumberperiodswith0---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:qualitmonopolyMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=withwithwithwithnplantsactive,n=0,1,2...:0NumberNumberNumberNumber---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:qualitMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MA---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberwithNumberwithNumberwith---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberperiodswithNumberperiodswithNumberperiodswith22Meanandstddevone-firmconcentration:CurrentlyactivefirmshavMeanconsumersurplus:Meanproducersurplus:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------monopolyMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberwithNumberwithNumberwithNumberofperiodswith2---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=Numberofperiodswithnplantsactive,n=0,1,2...:079992001Meanandstddevprice-costmargin: MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS=3---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(differMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:3MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:SPLINEPOI---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberofperiodswithNumberperiodswithNumberperiodswithNumberofperiodswith022---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------monopolyMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:3MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]--------------------------------------------------[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberofperiodswithNumberwithNumberwithNumberofperiodswithMeanandstddevone-plantconcentration:Meanvalue:Currentlyactiveplantshavelivedandearned:Meanconsumersurplus:Meanproducersurplus:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:3MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MA---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=NumberNumberwithwith---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:3MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAMETERS:a=9;delta=Numberofperiodswithnfirmsactive,n=0,1,2...:001---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------monopolyMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:3MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAM0Meanandstddevone-plantconcentration:Meanvalue:Currentlyactiveplantshavelivedandearned:Meanconsumersurplus:Meanproducersurplus:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:capacitMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:3MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------DEMANDINTERCEPT:MARGINALCOST:TAU:---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONPARAM0我們僅以MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS=2、INV---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(diffMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:S---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONumberofperiodswithnNumberofperiodswithexit:0Numberofperiodswithentry:0MeanandstddevpricMeanandstddevone-firmconcentration:CurrentlyactivefirmshavelivedandearnMeanconsumersurplus:Meanproducersurplus:Meantotalsurplus:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:qualMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:SPLINEPOI---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONumberofperiodswithnfirmsactive,n=0,1,2Numberofperiodswithexit:8Numberofperiodswithentry:8Meanandstddevprice-costmargin:Meanandstddevone-firmconcentration:Meanvalue:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------MAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:S---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONumberofperiodswithnfNumberofperiodswithexit:6Numberofperiodswithentry:623NumberofperiodswithentMeanandstddevprice-costmargin:Meanandstddevone-firmconcentration:Meanvalue:---[ModelPrimitives]------------------------------------------------INVESTMENTIN:quality(diffeMAXIMUMNUMBEROFFIRMS:2MAXIMUMEFFICIENCYLEVEL:21---[StaticParameters]-----------------------------------------------MARGINALCOST:MARKETSIZE:SPLIN---[DynamicParameters]----------------------------------------------STARTINGNUMBEROFFIRMS:2DISCOUNTFACTOR:SCRAPVALUE:SUNKCOST:stochastic,-ENTRYAT:4PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTION---[ModelPrimitives]-----------------MAXI