2023全球電動汽車報(bào)告：就緒指數(shù)-2023

REP2O0

GLOBALELECTRIC

MOBILITYREADINESS

INDEX2023

Chartingtheprogressivecourseof

e-mobilityacrosstheworld

＋

2

CONTENT—PARTI

GLOBALANALYSIS

FOREWORD

4

EXECUTIVESUMMARY&KEYFINDINGS

6

1.GEMRIX2023METHODOLOGY10

2.GLOBALBENCHMARKS18

DR.ANDREASSCHLOSSER

HIROTAKAUCHIDA

Partner,GlobalLead

Partner

CentralEurope

SoutheastAsia&Japan

DR.PHILIPPSEIDEL

AMITDAKSHINI

Principal

AssociateDirector

CentralEurope

India

DR.RAYMONDKHOURY

Partner

MiddleEast

WewouldliketoacknowledgeallthosewhocontributedtothisReport,especially:

HalaAkiki,GunseliAlic,ErenAtsiz,NicolaBorgo,ThaoDo,HirotoshiEma,ShreyGandhi,

WalidBenHammadi,NaomichiHirose,FelixHoffmann,RiyaJain,DominicKuriakose,

AkshayPrasad,FabianSempf,SerkanSomer,RahulTiwary,andThitiyaVisittpong

3

CONTENT—PARTII

COUNTRYPROFILES

#1NORWAY22

#2CHINA24

#3GERMANY

26

#4SINGAPORE

28

#5UK30

#6HONGKONG32

#7UAE34

#8US36

#9QATAR38

#10NEWZEALAND40

#11JAPAN42

#12ISRAEL44

#13JORDAN46

#14KUWAIT48

#15AUSTRALIA50

#16INDIA52

#17THAILAND54

#18BAHRAIN56

#19OMAN58

#20ALGERIA60

#21INDONESIA62

#22MOROCCO64

#23SAUDIARABIA66

#24MALAYSIA68

#25TüRKIYE70

#26VIETNAM72

#27MEXICO74

#28EGYPT76

#29LEBANON78

#30BRAZIL80

#31PANAMA82

#32COSTARICA84

#33IRAQ86

#34PHILIPPINES88

#35SOUTHAFRICA90

CONCLUSION92

4

4

REPORT:GEMRIX2023

ARTHURD.LITTLE

FOREWORD

Catastrophicclimatechangeurgesglobalshifttowardelectricvehicles—

buttheworldneedstoestablishitsreadiness

Thepressingissueofclimatechange,whichworld-

renownednaturalistDavidAttenboroughcalled“the

biggestthreattosecuritythatmodernhumanshave

everfaced,”broughtworldleaderstoasinglestage

culminatinginthelandmarkParisAgreement.This

resultedintherequirementforcountriestosubmit

climateactionplansknownasNationallyDetermined

Contributions(NDCs),outliningtheiremissions-

reductiontargetsandthemeasurestheywould

undertaketoachievethem.

Energyisattheheartoftoday’sclimatechallenge

andkeytothesolution,withtheinherentneedto

transitionfromfossilfuelstoclean,sustainableenergy.

Thetransportsector,inparticular,isresponsiblefor

approximatelyaquarterofgreenhousegas(GHG)

emissions,withabout95%oftheworld’stransport

energycomingfromfossilfuels.Thus,theelectrification

oftransportationoffersapromisingsolutiontoclimate

change—butonlyifcombinedwithatransitionto

electricenergygenerationfromrenewableresources.

Inanycase,electricvehicles(EVs)beatalternative

powertraintechnologieswithinternalcombustion

engines(ICEs)inefficiencybyawidemargin,

disregardingtheburningoffuel.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

5

Ofcourse,endingtheageofthecombustionengineis

stillachallengeforlargepartsoftheplanet.However,

with90%oftheworldGDPnowcoveredwithnet-zero

commitmentsandpressureoncompaniestocounter

climatechangethroughnewproducts,processes,and

purpose,e-mobilitytopicshavemovedupthestrategic

agendaforautomotiveexecutivesaroundtheglobe.To

assistexecutivesinorganizationsofallkindsaroundthe

world,ArthurD.Little(ADL)hassetupamethodologyto

evaluatethe“readiness”ofmarketsforelectricmobility

andhelpformulatestrategiesbasedonthedata.The

standardizedapproachanddetailedanalysisofkey

marketdriversforEVsenableasolidunderstandingof

thecurrentsituation.

ADL’scurrentanalysiscovers35marketsacross

allcontinentsundervariedsituationsregarding

demographics,economics,motorization,energy

generation,andsoforth.InthisReport,weprovidean

overviewofthekeyresultsofthe2023editionofthe

GlobalElectricMobilityReadinessIndex(GEMRIX),

whichADLfirstcarriedoutin2018underthename,

“BEVReadinessStudy.”

Dr.AndreasSchlosser

Partner,GlobalLead,Automotive

6

Norway

China

Germany

Singapore

UK

HongKong

UAE

US

Qatar

NewZealand

Japan

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Australia

India

Thailand

Bahrain

Oman

Algeria

Indonesia

Morocco

SaudiArabia

Malaysia

Türkiye

Vietnam

Mexico

Egypt

Lebanon

Brazil

Panama

CostaRica

Iraq

Philippines

SouthAfrica

REPORT:GEMRIX2023

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

&KEYFINDINGS

GEMRIX2023isthethirdeditionofthestudyandnow

includes35marketsacrossallcontinents(seeFigure1).

Alreadysincethe2022edition,therehasbeenamassivejumpinEVadoptionworldwide.NorwayhasdefendeditspositionasthegloballeaderoftheEVreadinessranking,butanewchallengerisgettingcloser,makinghugesteps:China.

Thetwomarketsarefollowedbythreedistinctgroupsof

countries.AllcountriesaremovingtoincreaseEVadoption,followingsimilarpatternsbutwithdifferencesintimebyafewyears,assomestartedearlierthanothers.Wediscern

differencesbetweenglobalmarketsprimarilyinspecific

legislationand,toalesserextent,socioeconomicfactors.Incountrieswithhigherincome,forexample,environmentprotectionplaysacrucialrole,whileincountrieswithloweraverageincome,costistheprimarydeterminingfactor.Theperspectivetoparticipateinanew,dynamicallygrowing

industryalsosetsincentivesforvehicleelectrificationinmanyregions.

Figure1.GlobalElectricMobilityReadinessIndex—GEMRIX2023

+

Global

EmergingEVmarkets

StarterMarkets

Bench

mark

Ambitious

Followers

117

98

100

85

Macrofactors

81

79

EVmarket

CustomerEVreadiness

5757

Publiccharging

5554

53

48

TCO&governmentregulation

47464646

40

4444434342

3535

3838

343332

313029282828

20

Source:ArthurD.Little

ARTHURD.LITTLE

7

Inthe2023GEMRIXstudy,themarketsareclassifiedinto

fourclusters:

1.GlobalBenchmark—marketswithaGEMRIXscoreof

100orabove.Inthe2022edition,onlyNorway,alead

marketforelectricmobility,populatedthiscategory

withmorethan110points.Thisyear,forthefirsttime,a

secondmarkethasmovedclosertothethreshold:China

scores98points.Amongthe35markets,Norwayisstill

theonlycountrywithanEVsalesshareofmorethan

50%.Astunning88%ofallnewcarssoldinNorwayin

2022wereeitherbatteryelectricvehicles(BEVs)or

plug-inhybridelectricvehicles(PHEVs).

2.AmbitiousFollowers—whereallprerequisitesfor

EVmobilityareinplaceandEVsareonthevergeof

becomingmainstream.Examplemarketsinthiscategory

areGermany,Singapore,andtheUK.AmongAmbitious

Followers,EVshaveincreasedtheirsalessharestomore

than30%.Inleadingmarkets,afullrangeofEVmodelsin

differentformatsandpricerangesisavailable,servinga

broadspectrumofclientneeds.However,eveninleading

markets,OEMsarestillunderpressuretoexpandtheirEV

offerings,especiallytotheentrymarketsegment.

3.EmergingEVMarkets—whereconditionsforEVs

arestillinferiortothoseforICEvehicles,eventhough

customersarebecomingmorecomfortablewiththe

ideaofEVsasinfrastructureisrampingup.Example

marketsaretheUS,Japan,theUAE,andIndia.Here,we

seemainlyscoresbetween40and60,withtheUAEand

HongKongemergingasthefront-runnerswithascore

of57.Inthesemarkets,westillseeafewoperational

andfinancialdrawbacks.However,thesecountries

havedemonstratedaclearintentiontomakesteady

progresstowarde-mobility.Theyaremakingsignificant

investmentstoboostthelandscape—andwilllikely

catchupsoon.Forexample,anentrepreneurialculture

8

REPORT:GEMRIX2023

andastart-upecosystemhaveplayedapivotalroleindrivingEVinnovationsintheAmericas,SoutheastAsia(SEA),andtheMiddleEast.Furthermore,theUAEhasexperiencedanincreaseinEVcharginginfrastructureowingtogovernment-ledinitiatives,asignificant

catalystbehindtheincreasingnumberofconsumerswillingtobuyanEVastheirnextvehicle.

4.StarterMarkets—whereEVshavejustenteredthe

gameandstillfacemajorchallengesintermsofcosts

andinfrastructurereadiness.ExamplemarketsareSouthAfrica,Malaysia,andTürkiye.InStarterMarkets,electricmobilityisjustbeginningtoentertheconversation.

Consumersareexcitedaboutembracingsustainable

technologies,includingEVs,asreflectedinthese

countriesscoringhighinreadiness.Givenlowerfuel

costsintheseregions,highertotalcostofownership

(TCO)ofanEVisadeterrent.Thelimitedavailabilityof

EVoptionsisyetanothermajorissue.Additionally,givenglobalawarenessregardingclimatechangeandacallforsustainability,theseregionshaveventuredintoelectricmobilityandannouncedinitiatives,butexecutionand

implementationatscaleremaintobeseen.AlthoughtheexpansionoftheEVcharginginfrastructureisstillinitsnascentstage,thesecountriesarelikelytoascendintherankingsasconcernssurroundingchargingaccessibility

arealleviated.Moreover,governmentsexhibitastronginclinationtowardpromotinge-mobilityinpublic

transportation.

RegardingCustomerReadiness,costisoneofthemost,

ifnotthemost,importantdriversofEVadoption.This

posesachallengeindevelopingcountriesasEVprices

arestillhighandincomeiscomparativelylow.Thus,OEMsneedtodecreasecosts,whilegovernmentsneedtocreateincentivestopavetheroadtosuccessandallowcustomerstoenjoyelectricmobility.Especiallyinmarketswithlow

costsforfossilfuels,thereneedstobeimprovementwithTCOforEVstoenableabreakthrough.

ARTHURD.LITTLE

9

IntermsofInfrastructureReadiness,battlingrange

anxiety—thefearthatavehicle’sbatterywillnothave

sufficientchargetoreachthedestination—isakeyissue.

DCchargersarebecomingmorepopular,astheylower

chargetime,areperfectlysuitedtohighways,anddecrease

rangeanxiety.Chargingindustryplayersshouldfocuson

theEmergingEVMarkets—asthesecountriesareabout

tosolvethechicken-and-eggproblem(i.e.,determining

whichmustbeinplacefirst,infrastructureorEVs),ifthey

haven’talreadydoneso,andgovernmentsarepushing

infrastructurebuildup,enablingplayerstowinlarge-scale

contracts.InmarketswithaquicklyrisingEVpopulation,

thechallengeistokeepupwithinfrastructureinstallations

toavoidcreatingbarrierstoadoption.

GovernmentReadinesshingesongovernment’s

willingnesstotakethefirststepbyintroducingwide

incentivesforpurchasingvehicles.Customersshouldnot

payapremiumforEVs.Moreover,governmentsneedto

reduceTCObyintroducingincentivesforvehicleusage.

PromotingEVadoptioninEmergingEVMarketsandStarter

Marketswillgivecharginginfrastructureplayersthe

incentivetoenteracountry,creatingareinforcingspiral

ofEVadoption.

BettingonEVsisnolongerariskygamble,andthe

predictabilityoftheEVmarketiscontinuingtogrow.Theonly

majordriverthatcannotbepredictedfullyisgovernment

policy.However,makingreasonableassumptionsaboutthis

willgivetheindustryinallcountriesfirmgroundonwhichto

basetheirplanning.

10

GEMRIX

REPORT:GEMRIX2023

1.GEMRIX2023METHODOLOGY

GEMRIXevaluatescountries’progresstowarde-mobility,providingacomprehensiveassessmentoftheirsuitabilityforEVadoption

INDEXMETHODOLOGY

&APPROACH

ADL’s2023GEMRIXhasbeencalculatedfor

35countries.Theindexprovidesaplatformtocomparecountries’preparednessandprogresstowarde-mobility.GEMRIXiscalibrated

betweennotionalscoresof0and100.Ascoreof100impliesthatICEvehiclesandEVsareatthesamelevelintermsofacceptability,

affordability,andavailability.Thehigherthe

score,thehigherthefavorabletransitiontoEVsinthecountry.Thus,ascorebeyond100showsthatEVsareevenmorebeneficialthanICEs.

GEMRIXcomprisesfivemajorcategories

reflectingEVadoption:(1)macrofactors,

(2)EVmarketandcompetitivelandscape,

(3)customerEVreadiness,(4)publiccharginginfrastructure,and(5)TCOandgovernmentregulation(seeFigure2).

Eachcategoryisfurtherbrokendownintosix

to16specificdatametrics,analyzedwitha

standardizedmetricforeachcountry,rendering47variablespercountry.

Thefivecategoriesareassignedweights

accordingtotheirrelevanceforEVadoption.

Thecountriescanscoredifferentpointsin

eachcategory,witheachmetricwithinthe

categoriesvaryingbyweightandmarketdata.Theindividualpointscoreiscalculatedfrom

analyticsthatconsiderrelativeandabsolute

performancemeasures.ThefinalGEMRIXscoreistheaggregateofperformanceindicatorsfrom

thefivesubcategories,providingathoroughassessmentofacountry’ssuitabilityfor

e-mobility.

Figure2.GEMRIXcategories

Macrofactors

.GDPpercapita

.Qualityofelectricityinfrastructure

.Motorizationrate

EVmarket&competitivelandscape

.EVmarketshareand5-yearsalesforecast

.EVproductoffering

CustomerEVreadiness

.CustomerslikelihoodtobuyEVasnextvehicle.TCO

.Sustainabilitymindset

Publiccharginginfrastructure

.Publicchargingnetworkdeploymentforecast

.DCandHPchargingnetworkdensity

TCO&governmentregulation

.Quantitative&qualitativebenefitsforEV

.DirectfinancialsubsidiesforEV&

infrastructure

Source:ArthurD.Little

11

ARTHURD.LITTLE

ACOUNTRY’S

RENEWABLEENERGY

PRODUCTIONAND

ROADQUALITYPLAY

SIGNIFICANTROLES

INDETERMINING

E-MOBILITYREADINESS

Macrofactors

Acountry’smacroeconomicconditionscan

substantiallyimpactitsreadinessfore-mobilitysolutions.GDPpercapita,netincome,and

growthrateareamongkeymacroeconomic

statistics.HigherGDPpercapitameansmore

disposableincomeforemergingtechnology

likeEVs;theshareoftheurbanpopulationalsopavesthewayforEVadoption(seeFigure3).

Ascitiestypicallyhavehigherpollutionand

congestionlevels,EVsareappealingtomitigatetheserisksinurbancities.

Furthermore,renewableenergyproductioncanbooste-mobilitypreparednessbypowering

EVswithcleaner,moresustainableenergy.RenewableenergyproductioniscrucialforEVstobeatrulysustainablealternative

toICEvehicles.Smartgridsarealsovital

asgovernmentspursueambitiousplanstoboosttheirelectricitysupplyandintegrate

renewableenergyintotheirgeneration

portfolios.Importantly,resilientelectricalgrid

infrastructurecanaccommodatethegrowing

demandforchargingEVs.Theavailabilityofa

secureandsteadyelectricalsupplyguarantees

EVownersaseamlesschargingexperience,thus

easingthetransitiontoelectricmobility.

COMPETITION

AMONGOEMs,THE

,

AVAILABILITYOFBEVs

ANDGOVERNMENT

INITIATIVESPROMOTE

INNOVATIONAND

AFFORDABILITY

EVmarket&competitivelandscape

ThelevelofcompetitionamongOEMsimpacts

acountry’sEVadoption—highercompetition

resultsinmoreinnovation,lowerprices,and

betterconsumerservices(seeFigure4).The

numberofBEVorPHEVmodelsofferedinthe

marketbyOEMsalsoindicatestheavailability

ofconsumerchoices,whichdrivescompetition

andinnovation.This,inturn,canmakeEVsmore

accessibleandaffordabletoabroaderrangeof

people.

Figure3.Summaryofmacrofactors

100%

100%

99%

100%

90%87%

89%88%

87%

87%83%

86%

85%

84%

93%93%92%

87%

82%

69%71%

84%

78%77%

74%

68%

64%57%

78%

65%

52%

48%

43%

37%

35%

54

53

54

38

36

33

39

34

31

29

40

8

10

I

11

I

4

2

5

18

11

21

3

17

77

3

6

346

11

11

I

335

Norway

China

Germany

Singapore

UK

HongKong

UAE

USA

Qatar

NewZealand

Japan

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Australia

India

Thailand

Bahrain

Oman

Algeria

Indonesia

Morocco

SaudiArabia

Malaysia

Türkiye

Vietnam

Mexico

Egypt

Lebanon

Brazil

Panama

CostaRica

Iraq

Philippines

SouthAfrica

.Adjustednetincomepercapita($USk).Shareofurbanpopulation

Source:ArthurD.Little

12

Norway

Germany

China

UK

NewZealand

Kuwait

Qatar

HongKong

US

UAE

Japan

SaudiArabia

Jordan

Bahrain

Israel

Australia

Vietnam

Indonesia

Brazil

India

Morocco

Philippines

Singapore

Panama

Thailand

Egypt

Türkiye

Algeria

CostaRica

SouthAfrica

Malaysia

Mexico

Lebanon

Oman

Iraq

Norway

China

Germany

Singapore

UK

HongKong

UAE

US

Qatar

NewZealand

Japan

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Australia

India

Thailand

Bahrain

Oman

Algeria

Indonesia

Morocco

SaudiArabia

Malaysia

Türkiye

Vietnam

Mexico

Egypt

Lebanon

Brazil

Panama

CostaRica

Iraq

Philippines

SouthAfrica

8

7777

66

REPORT:GEMRIX2023

Figure4.Summaryofmarketandcompetitivelandscape

Vehiclemarketsize,2022(pastcarsales/population)

Vehiclemarketgrowthexpectations,2022–2026

21

MarketsharePHEV,2022

MarketshareBEV,2022

BEV/PHEVmarketshareexpectations,2022–2026

15

E-mobilityimportanceinnon-PCsegments:salesofelectricbuses&trucks

NumberofBEVofferedinmarket(OEM,modelline)

NumberofPHEVofferedinmarket(OEM,modelline)

13

12

11

10

8

6

5555

4

433

2222

33333

1

1

2

Source:ArthurD.Little

Figure5.SalesshareofPHEVandBEVpermarket

86%

25%26%

22%

19%

12%

8%

7%10%8%6%

5%

4%4%

3%

3%

3%

1%2%0%0%

0%1%0%0%

1%1%

0%0%0%

1%0%2%0%3%

BEVPHEV

Source:ArthurD.Little

Atthesametime,ChineseEVmanufacturersarenowreadytoexporttheirEVsallovertheworld.Moreover,inmanycountries,newdedicatedEVbrandsandmanufacturershavebeeninstalled

andareabouttostartoperation,forexample,inVietnam,Türkiye,andSaudiArabia,amongothers.

Recently,EVmarketsgloballyhaveprovedto

beverydynamic(seeFigure5).Whileitwasonly

twoyearsagoinwhichtheEVmarketoutside

Chinawasdominatedbyemergingplayers(with

Teslaleadingtheway),manyincumbentOEMs

havesinceracedtoovertakethem.Germanand

USOEMsareagoodexampleofthisvolatility.

Upto2019,theyonlyreluctantlyintroduced

EVs.Customersinterestedinelectriccarsofa

newkindlargelyhadtoturntoTesla.Starting

in2020,however,pushedbygovernment

initiativesandthepressureofcominglateto

thisimportantfuturemarket,GermanOEMs

rapidlyintroducednewall-electriclinesand

models.TheUSsawaverysimilaruptake,as

majorUSOEMs—includingFordandGM—

alsoelectrifiedtheirmainstreammodellines.

13

ARTHURD.LITTLE

CUSTOMERS’ABILITY

TOCHARGEEVsAT

HOME,OPENNESSTO

TECHNOLOGY,AND

ENVIRONMENTAL

CONCERNSAREDECISIVE

CustomerEVreadiness

Customerpreparednessallowsforthe

accelerationofEVadoptionandpromotion.

ThisisinfluencedbysuchfactorsasthechanceofacquiringanEV,Internetpenetration,and

EVpricingversusICEautomobiles.AhigherincidenceofhomeownershipcancreateawiderpoolofpotentialEVownerswhocanreadilyaccessandinstallhome-charginginfrastructure.

Figure6summarizesthefactorsinfluencing

customerreadiness,whileFigure7zonesinon

customerslikelytobuyaPHEV/BEVastheirnext

vehicle.

Thetopicofchargingnaturallyleadsto

accessibility.Weseeacorrelationbetweenthe

shareofapopulationlivinginurbanareasand

EVreadiness.Lackofaccesstopubliccharging

infrastructureisamassivehurdletothe

adoptionofEVs.Globally,thedensityofpublic

chargingpointsinruralareasisnowherenear

thedensityofpetroleumstations.Withmost

EVsarestilloflowerrangecomparedtotheir

ICEcounterparts,countrieswithalargerural

populationhaveasignificantchallengetosolve,

asisveryvisibleinIndiaandVietnam.Again,

thishurdleismuchlesspronouncedfortwo-

wheelers(2Ws),whichcanbechargedeffectively

usingstandardhouseholdpowerlines.

Figure6.SummaryofcustomerEVreadiness

28Availabilityof22kWACatdedicatedhomeparkingorequivalent

26

Smartphonepenetration

Homeownershiprateinmarket(country)

Innovationindex(INSEAD,Cornell,WIPO)

1919

CustomerslikelytobuyPHEV/BEVasnextvehicle

Averagedailytrip/commutelength

17

18

17

17

16

16

15

15

14

13

12

10

10

111111111111

10

10

9

8

8

7

7

7

6

5

6

5

Norway

China

UAE

Singapore

Germany

Thailand

Qatar

Morocco

UK

Jordan

India

Algeria

Brazil

Kuwait

US

NewZealand

Israel

Bahrain

Indonesia

Oman

Malaysia

Türkiye

SaudiArabia

Australia

Vietnam

Egypt

Japan

Iraq