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科目集訓(xùn)營(yíng)(2019.06)
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Case1
ThefollowinginformationrelatestoQuestions1–6
CaidenJackson,aprivateentrepreneur,ispreparingforhispost-retirementinvestmentplan.Heplanstoobtain
moreinvestmentknowledgebytakingtheCFAexamandhealsohiresaseniorfinancialconsultantWesley
Songtohelphim.
JacksontellsSongthathehaspassedtheCFAlevelItwoyearsagoandwantstofinishtheuncompletedlevels
afterretirement.DuringstudyinglevelI,hefoundanunfamiliarconcept“risk-neutrality”whichwasonly
involvedinderivativespartandheignoredtheconceptatthattime.Butnowhefindsthattheconceptisalso
usedinthepartofthetraditionaltermstructuretheories.JacksonasksSongthatifthereisanyinvestment
theorydoesnotinvolvethisconceptsincehethinksitisnotpracticallysignificant.SonganswersJackson’s
questionandexplainshisopinionsabouttherisk-neutralconcept.
Throughhard-workingandwithSong’shelp,JacksonfinishedalllevelsofCFAexamthreeyearslaterand
planstoinvestinthefixedincomefieldbyhimselffirst.Hecollectsthecurrentmarketinformationshownin
Exhibit1.
Year1Year2Year3Year4
Parrate(%)
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
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Case1
Accordingtohisanalysisandprediction,healsosummarizesabinomialtreeofinterestratein
Exhibit2.
Year1
2.5%
Year2
2.9%
2.7%
Year3
3.6%
3.3%
3.0%
Year4
4.6%
4.2%
3.8%
3.4%
Somedayslater,themarketpriceofthe3-yearannuallypaymentbondwiththecouponrateof4.5%
revertstothepricethatJacksoncalculated.Thisresultstrengthenshisconfidenceintheinvestment
field.
Fivedayslater,hepurchasesanannuallypaymentcallablebondat$99.2.Theinformationforthe
bondaregivenbelow.
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Case1
Tenor
3year
Couponpayment
Provision
BondA
$4peryear
Callableat$102inoneyearandtwoyearsfromtoday
Becauseofthepreviouslysuccessfuljudgments,Jacksonwantstoexpandhisavailableinvestmentsetof
fixed-incomeproducts.Recently,hehasintenseinterestsincreditdefaultswaps(CDS).JacksonnoticesHi-
TechcompanyintheITindustryissufferedfromuncertaintyintheleadershiptransition.Jacksonfindsthat
theHi-Techcompanybondsyields4%andmaturesinthreeyears.TherelevantCDSontheHi-Tech
companybondhasa1.75%creditspread.JacksonforecaststhatthenewleaderfortheHi-Techcompanyis
goingtoacquireatargetcompanybyissuingadditionaldebt.AftertheanalysisoftheHi-Techcompany,
Jacksonlearnscollateralizeddebtobligation(CDO)throughafinancialproseminar.Jacksonseeksadvice
fromSongaboutCDO.SongrespondsthatCDOcanbecreatedbycollectingapoolofdefault-freebonds
andundertakingasaprotectionsellerinCDS.
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1.WhichoneofthefollowingtheoriesismostsuitableforJackson’srequirement?
A.Unbiasedexpectationtheory
B.Localexpectationtheory
C.Preferredhabitattheory
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2.AccordingtotheExhibit1,thespotrateofyear4isclosestto
A.5.65%
B.5.61%
C.6.68%
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3.AccordingtotheExhibits1and2,ifthepriceofa3-yearannuallystraightbondisatpar,the
intrinsicvalueofa3-yearbondisclosestto?
A.104.66768
B.102.77452
C.103.26547
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4.AccordingtoExhibits2and3,theoptioncostofthecallablebondisclosestto:
A.0.03
B.0.05
C.0.07
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5.BaseontheanalysisfortheHi-Techcompany,themostappropriatestrategyforJacksonisto:
A.buytheHi-TechcompanybondandbuyCDSonHi-Techcompanybondsimultaneously
B.selltheHi-TechcompanybondandbuyCDSonHi-Techcompanybondsimultaneously
C.selltheHi-TechcompanybondandsellCDSonHi-Techcompanybondsimultaneously
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6.IsSong’sstatementonCDOcorrect?
A.Yes.
B.No,becauseheisincorrectwithregardtodefault-freebonds.
C.No,becauseheisincorrectwithregardtoprotectionsellerinCDS.
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Case2
ThefollowinginformationrelatestoQuestions7–12
MichaelGrossisthejuniorstudentofpsychologyinDukeUniversity.Intheperiodofschool,heattemptedto
earnhistuitionbypokergameinLasVegasduringthesummervacation.InLasVegas,hefoundthatthepoker
playermustbecapableoffinishingthelogicalprocessquicklyinthelightofthesituationsongamblinggames.
Buthecannotfinishthereasoningprocessattheshorttime.Histeachersuggeststhattheinvestmentanalystis
probablysuitableforhim.Theanalysthasenoughtimetocometotheconclusionbecauseofthesignificanceof
investment’sresult.Therefore,Hewantstofindaninternjobinthefixed-incomedepartmentofGaodunFinance.
Evenifhehasanexcellentbackground,hestillneedstopasstheexaminationbyansweringthequestionsfrom
theinterviewer.
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Case2
GloriaDavies,theofficialleaderofthefixedincomedepartment,isdesignatedtobetheinterviewer,butshe
needstodealswithherjobfirst.JohnThomas,theseniorinterestrateanalyst,providesherwiththespotrate
curveshowninExhibit1basedonthecollectedmarketinformation.DavieschecksthedataandasksThomasto
calculatetheforwardratesbasedontheinformation.
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Case2
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Case2
Becauseoftheperfectperformanceintheinterview,GrossisenrolledinGaodunFinanceasanintern.Oneday,
GrossisconfusedaboutcreditanalysisandconsultswithLesson.Grossasks”Isthereanycreditanalysismethod
thatcanprovidequantitativeresultsonthedefaultprobabilityandexpectlossgivendefaultandthatcantakeinto
considerationsofdifferentbusinessstages?”Afterthediscussionofcreditanalysis,DaviesasksGrossto
introduceasset-backedsecurities(ABS)tothepotentialclientsofGaodunFinance.Duringtheseminar,Gross
presentsthatthecreditanalysisprocessforABSisdifferentfromtraditionalbondsduetothetranchestructureof
ABS.Forexample,ifanyprincipalorinterestsrepay,allthetranchesoftheABSproductionclaimtheprincipal
equallybutthehighesttranchereceivestheinterestsforemost.
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7.AccordingtotheExhibit1,thef(1,2)isclosestto:
A.1.40%
B.1.35%
C.1.38%
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8.AccordingtotheExhibit2,thedifferencebetweenLesson’sforecastvalueforNode2-2andthe
actualvalueforNode2-2isclosestto:
A.0
B.0.06%
C.0.03%
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9.WhichoneofthefollowingspreadsisthemostappropriateresponsetoQuestion1?
A.Z-spread
B.Option-adjustedspread
C.G-spread
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10.Whichofthefollowingbehaviorsofmanagingtheinterestrateofthefloating-ratebondisleast
beneficialtoissuer?
A.Theissuercanaddtheinterestcaptoreducetheinterestrateriskofthefloating-ratebond.
B.Theissuercanaddtheinterestfloortoreducetheinterestrateriskofthefloating-ratebond.
C.Theissuercantransferthefloating-paymentintofixed-paymentbymakingtheinterestrateswap.
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11.ForGross’squestionaboutcreditanalysis,themostappropriateanswergivenbyLessonis:
A.creditrating
B.structuremodel
C.reducedmodel
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12.IsGross’sstatementonABScorrect?
A.No,heisincorrectwithrespecttothecreditanalysisprocess.
B.No,heisincorrectwithrespecttorepaymentpriorityofprincipalandinterests.
C.Yes.
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Case3
ThefollowinginformationrelatestoQuestions13–18
PhillipsJosephisaseniorcreditanalystworkingforLoftyTowerCompany,Inc.Recently,heisaskedtopressa
creditreportonSliverForwardCompany,acompanyintheconsultingarea.HensonLeonard,acolleagueof
Joseph,isaspecialistinquantitativeanalysis.Leonardsuggeststhat“insteadofcreditrating,Ipreferstructural
modelbecausestructuralmodelrendersquantitativeresults,suchasthepresentvalueoftheexpectedlossandthe
probabilityofdefault,andithasnolimitationonthecompany’sbalancesheet.”Josephreplies”Althoughthereare
tremendouslyobviousadvantagesofthestructuralmodel,itisrelativelycomplicatedforinvestorstounderstand.
Incontrast,thecreditratingisstraightforwardbecausetheratingprovidesasimplestatisticthatsummarizesthe
estimatedfutureperformanceonapotentialdebtissuer.Furthermore,creditratingisrelativelystableovertime
whichresultsinlowvolatilityinthedebtmarket.”Afterthediscussion,JosephfulfillsthecreditreportonSliver
ForwardCompany.
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Case3
Accordingtothepreviousanalysis,Sumail,oneofJoseph’scolleagues,concludesthatthecorporationhashigh
creditqualityandlistssupportingevidenceinthereportofcreditanalysis.Buttheinvestorthinksthatthedecision
ofinvestmentisbasedonthepreciselyquantitativestandardratherthanthequalitativeconclusions.Hence,
Sumailisrequiredtoofferanumericalindicatorformeasuringthechangeofthecorporation’screditrisk.He
thinksthatthecreditriskofthecorporationisconstantoveralong-termperiodandZ-spreadcanbean
appropriateriskmeasurement.Hesummarizesthespotratecurvebasedonthereportfromthedepartmentof
prediction.
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Case3
AccordingtotheZ-spreadgiveninthecreditanalysisreport,ZhileiXumakesalargetradinglossattheposition
ofBondA.Hehiresanewinvestmentconsultantwhoisspecializinginthevaluationoffloating-ratebond
becauseXuthinksthatthefloating-ratebond’spropertyoftimelyfeedbackformarketenvironmentalchangeis
desirabletobothparty.Fortheissuingparty,itwillpaytheborrowingcostthatisexactlyequaltoitsrisk
premium.Forthepurchaser,thefloating-ratebondtremendouslyreducestheinterestratesensitivity.Theinvestor
willnotsufferalargelossandalsonotmakealargeprofit.Xudecidestoinvestinthefloating-ratebondwith
interestratecapissuedbyEvilgeniusandherequiresaconsultanttoofferafairvalueofthecappedfloating-rate
bond.Hisconsultantcollectsinformationasfollow.
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Case3
Basedonthepredictionoftheinterestratebinominaltree,Xuexpressesthattheprotectionofdownsideinterest
rateisnecessarybecausehehasapredictablefixedcashoutflowoverthenextthreeyears.Hehopesthatthe
couponpaymentfromthefloating-ratebondisneverbelow6%.
TheconsultantstatesthatouranalystgivestheexpectationofhigherTIIBORrelativeto
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