2024銀行年度策略：雙主線選股-優(yōu)選業(yè)績(jī)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定防御性高股息

內(nèi)容目錄一、選股主線1—業(yè)績(jī)相對(duì)穩(wěn)定：規(guī)模、息差、利潤(rùn)釋放能力三維度 5規(guī)模：增速和結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)與2023年接近，國(guó)有大行、城商行或仍占優(yōu) 6223年復(fù)盤：規(guī)模增速有所下滑“資產(chǎn)荒”加劇下投放結(jié)構(gòu)走弱 62024年展望：國(guó)有大行、優(yōu)質(zhì)區(qū)域城商行增速預(yù)計(jì)仍將占優(yōu) 10息差：按揭占比低、化債壓力小、個(gè)人存款定期占比高的銀行更具優(yōu)勢(shì) 12貸款端：調(diào)降政策密集落地競(jìng)爭(zhēng)“白熱化，未來(lái)降幅有限 存款端：存款利率下調(diào)或?yàn)榇髣?shì)所趨，個(gè)人定期存款占比高的銀行有優(yōu)勢(shì) 14投資端：存款實(shí)際執(zhí)行利率的下降可能間接影響債券的利息收入 15資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量：報(bào)表指標(biāo)預(yù)計(jì)穩(wěn)定，利潤(rùn)釋放空間有一定分化 17地產(chǎn)、城投和零售領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可控，2024年資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量報(bào)表指標(biāo)預(yù)計(jì)保持穩(wěn)定 17上市銀行利潤(rùn)釋放空間有一定分化，國(guó)有大行、優(yōu)質(zhì)城商行表現(xiàn)有望優(yōu)于同業(yè) 22二、選股主線2—存量博弈環(huán)境下，防御性高股息策略或仍占優(yōu) 28市場(chǎng)資金增量減少，銀行板塊持倉(cāng)較低 28防御性股息投資策略：低估值、高股息、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量穩(wěn)健個(gè)股 30風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 31圖表目錄圖表1：社融、貸款同比增速（%） 6圖表2：社融增量結(jié)構(gòu) 6圖表3：信貸增量結(jié)構(gòu) 7圖表4：各類銀行資產(chǎn)、貸款、RWA增速，零售貸款占比 7圖表5：上市銀行總資產(chǎn)、總貸款、RWA同比增速 8圖表6：上市銀行生息資產(chǎn)投放結(jié)構(gòu)（億元，2022H1增量結(jié)構(gòu)與2022全年接近，故未列示） 9圖表7：工商銀行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露結(jié)構(gòu)（億元） 10圖表8：關(guān)于“三大工程”建設(shè)的相關(guān)政策文件、會(huì)議和講話 10圖表9：上市銀行規(guī)模增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力匯總比較 12圖表10：上市銀行息差季度走勢(shì) 13圖表11：全行業(yè)加權(quán)平均貸款利率走勢(shì)（%） 14圖表12：上市銀行存款利率、結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)比 15圖表13：各地區(qū)地方政府債券（10年期）與10年期國(guó)債利差2022年以來(lái)穩(wěn)定在20bps以內(nèi)（%） 16圖表14：10年期國(guó)債利率與銀行負(fù)債成本率+管理成本率比較（%） 16圖表15：上市銀行息差表現(xiàn)匯總比較 17圖表16：上市銀行不良率、關(guān)注率占比等資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)表現(xiàn) 18圖表17：上市銀行核銷貸款規(guī)模/不良貸款余額（半年度已年化） 19圖表18：上市銀行對(duì)公地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)占比、不良率表現(xiàn) 20圖表19：各省市特殊再融資債發(fā)行規(guī)模（億元）和平均發(fā)行利率（%） 21圖表20：上市銀行零售貸款資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量情況 22圖表21：上市銀行利潤(rùn)增速、信貸減值和非信貸減值計(jì)提情況 23圖表22：上市銀行計(jì)提力度、不良生成率、撥備覆蓋率情況 24圖表23：上市銀行理財(cái)產(chǎn)品規(guī)模、理財(cái)業(yè)務(wù)收入表現(xiàn)（2023H1） 25圖表24：上市銀行利潤(rùn)釋放能力表現(xiàn)匯總比較 27圖表25：新發(fā)主動(dòng)型基金份額 28圖表26：TOP100基金代銷機(jī)構(gòu)股票+混合基金保有量 28圖表27：主動(dòng)型公募基金重倉(cāng)持股銀行板塊變動(dòng)情況 29圖表28：主動(dòng)型公募基金重倉(cāng)持股銀行個(gè)股情況 29圖表29：上市銀行十大流通股東中保險(xiǎn)機(jī)構(gòu)持股情況 3030：上市銀行估值、股息率、基金持倉(cāng)、分紅比例、核心一級(jí)資本充足率、RWA增速、資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量等各指標(biāo)綜合比較...........................................................................................................................................................................311三維度復(fù)空間：（）+（間小（債（利潤(rùn)釋放維度：1較（值得注意的是，以上篩選主要是基于經(jīng)濟(jì)整體上處于緩慢復(fù)蘇階段，實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)、居民消費(fèi)需求對(duì)比大對(duì)公貸款均偏弱的假設(shè)。若后續(xù)刺激政策落地情況、實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)需求回暖超預(yù)期，核心定價(jià)能力較強(qiáng)的銀行有望率先迎來(lái)業(yè)績(jī)改善，如寧波銀行、常熟銀行等。以及若居民端消費(fèi)需求恢復(fù)較好，零售業(yè)務(wù)占優(yōu)的、平安銀行業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)也有望領(lǐng)先同業(yè)。1/4202411.2%16.3%年：因素下上市銀行截止23Q3手續(xù)費(fèi)凈收入已連續(xù)6個(gè)單季度同比負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。預(yù)計(jì)2024年（1，疊（9其他非息收入：+也與各家銀行資產(chǎn)配置和交易策略有關(guān)。當(dāng)前宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)仍處于緩慢復(fù)蘇階段，在2024年利率環(huán)境與今年差異不大的情況下，銀行投資收益、公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)損益對(duì)業(yè)績(jī)變動(dòng)的影響可能相對(duì)較小。1本文采用信貸減值損失/不良貸款生成額來(lái)估計(jì)。規(guī)模：增速和結(jié)構(gòu)預(yù)計(jì)與2023年接近，國(guó)有大行、城商行或仍占優(yōu)在今年需求整體偏弱的背景下，社融增長(zhǎng)主要依靠對(duì)公中長(zhǎng)期+政府債拉動(dòng)（（）（。展望20242032021年以來(lái)整體呈下行態(tài)勢(shì)，結(jié)構(gòu)上則以貸款尤其是對(duì)公中長(zhǎng)期貸款年至2023Q12023Q2（同業(yè)資產(chǎn)占比提升（中長(zhǎng)期貸款較多）為主，與全國(guó)社融信貸趨勢(shì)一致。外部環(huán)境：社融信貸增速下滑，增量結(jié)構(gòu)中以對(duì)公中長(zhǎng)期貸款+政府債為主。202013.3%2023109.3%，人民幣貸款同比增速也由2020年的13.2%，下降至2023年10月的10.7%。社融結(jié)構(gòu)：+202081%2023年1-10月的88%，尤其貸款占比由57%大幅提高至64%。貸款結(jié)構(gòu)：202020231-10+17%40%降至19%。圖表1：融、款同增速（%） 圖表2：融增結(jié)構(gòu)社會(huì)融資規(guī)模同比人民幣貸款同比15141312111098

其他 企業(yè)股票融

企業(yè)債券

政府債券

人民幣貸款-20%資料來(lái)源：， 資料來(lái)源：，2保障性住房、“城中村”改造、“平急兩用”公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)圖表3：信貸增量結(jié)構(gòu)個(gè)人貸款

對(duì)公短期+票據(jù)

對(duì)公中長(zhǎng)期資料來(lái)源：，上市銀行整體：20212021年的11.4%提高至2023Q1的12.2%12.0%，2023Q22023Q310.8%、11.3%。2023911.9%12.6%13.1%（1達(dá)到.%97.3%、5.9%。91112129.613.98.012.57.991112129.613.98.012.57.912.711.311.811.97.312.610.611.313.398.27.87.311.57.012.612.111.1總資產(chǎn)國(guó)有大行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行上市銀行總貸款國(guó)有大行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行上市銀行2019-122020-122021-122022-122023-032023-062023-09RWA2019-122020-122021-122022-122023-032023-062023-09.3%.4%.2%.6%.0%.6%.3%.4%.8%.3%%%%%7.9%%7.4%%8.9%%%%%%%%%%%%%國(guó)有大行%股份行%城商行%農(nóng)商行%上市銀行.4%.4%.4%.9%.5%%%%%.6%%%%%8.5%%%%%7.7%%%7.4%%%%%%%%%2019-122020-122021-122022-122023-032023-062023-09.3%%%%%%.8%.0%%%7.3%%%%%6.2%%.3%.6%%%--%%%%%%%%%%%%%%------%%%----------37.539.241.5%41.3%40.9%111112.011.2.4%11%12.2.8%1135.836.938.134.933.2.6%.3%91010.410.615.1%16.716.5%31.533.034.333.732.713.513.813.713.515.6%15.917.8%42.4%--%43.244.4%43.8%43.6%5.9%6.9%912.814.036.438.541.3%41.3%40.8%13.113.513.712.71111.510國(guó)有大行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行2019-122020-122021-122022-122023-032023-062023-091091091110101010810.89.512.512.111.8111.412.812.8資料來(lái)源：，圖表5：上市銀行總資產(chǎn)、總貸款、RWA同比增速總資產(chǎn) 總貸款 RWA22A 23H1 23Q3 22A 23H1 23Q3 22A 23H1 23Q3工商銀行 12.6% 12.7% 12.5% 12.3% 13.2% 12.5% 2.4% 9.6% 10.5%建設(shè)銀行 14.4% 13.6% 10.3% 12.7% 13.5% 13.1% 8.5% 15.0% 16.7%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行 16.7% 17.3% 14.4% 15.1% 15.8% 15.0% 11.3% 15.1% 14.3%中國(guó)銀行 8.2% 10.8% 10.9% 11.7% 13.6% 13.4% 3.0% 9.3% 10.0%交通銀行 11.4% 9.8% 9.0% 11.2% 10.0% 9.6% 13.2% 9.8% 7.7%郵儲(chǔ)銀行 11.8% 12.6% 13.3% 11.7% 11.9% 12.1% 13.5% 13.4% 14.9% 9.6% 10.4% 9.9% 8.6% 7.1% 7.7% 5.0% 7.2% 7.9%中信銀行 6.3% 6.7% 3.5% 6.1% 7.4% 7.2% 8.7% 5.8% 7.2%浦發(fā)銀行 7.0% 5.0% 4.5% 2.4% 2.0% 0.1% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8%民生銀行 4.4% 4.4% 5.4% 2.4% 4.4% 6.1% 2.6% 3.2% 4.6%興業(yè)銀行 7.7% 10.1% 9.2% 12.5% 9.4% 9.9% 10.5% 12.4% 11.9% 6.8% 8.0% 9.1% 8.0% 6.6% 5.5% 8.9% 6.7% 6.5%華夏銀行 6.1% 6.6% 6.8% 2.7% 1.8% 1.3% 3.9% 8.6% 9.4%平安銀行 8.1% 7.7% 6.2% 8.7% 6.6% 3.8% 11.4% 7.5% 7.3%浙商銀行 14.7% 15.5% 16.3% 13.1% 12.0% 12.7% 12.1% 13.8% 14.3%北京銀行 10.8% 13.5% 15.3% 7.4% 11.3% 13.5% 8.3% 12.8% 14.6%南京銀行 17.8% 16.2% 15.2% 19.7% 17.6% 17.3% 18.2% 16.1% 14.3%寧波銀行 17.4% 16.1% 15.3% 21.2% 18.1% 18.9% 17.6% 15.7% 16.1%上海銀行 8.5% 7.8% 6.1% 6.6% 6.4% 5.6% 5.2% 6.8% 4.6%貴陽(yáng)銀行 6.1% 6.4% 4.9% 11.9% 16.2% 16.1% 5.6% 6.2% 4.8%杭州銀行 16.3% 13.8% 14.5% 19.3% 17.0% 15.9% 16.5% 14.4% 13.4%江蘇銀行 13.8% 14.8% 14.2% 14.6% 13.8% 12.9% 10.5% 16.0% 15.3%成都銀行 19.4% 15.0% 17.1% 25.2% 26.2% 25.8% 24.1% 22.1% 21.7%鄭州銀行 2.9% 5.6% 4.3% 14.5% 11.0% 8.1% 3.2% -0.3% -3.5%長(zhǎng)沙銀行 13.6% 16.1% 15.8% 15.3% 18.6% 15.2% 10.4% 13.5% 12.2%青島銀行 1.4% 6.0% 9.4% 10.2% 8.9% 10.1% 12.1% 4.5% 15.7%西安銀行 17.3% 19.8% 17.2% 4.3% 6.3% 4.7% 19.7% 18.1% 15.9%蘇州銀行 15.8% 14.7% 14.5% 17.5% 19.1% 18.0% 16.6% 13.1% 15.6%廈門銀行 12.7% 0.3% 4.1% 14.5% 9.0% 6.6% 18.4% 8.7% 7.2%齊魯銀行 16.8% 16.5% 15.8% 18.8% 17.1% 15.7% 10.3% 10.7% 7.7%重慶銀行 10.6% 9.6% 10.6% 10.9% 11.4% 12.5% 3.9% 8.4% 9.0%蘭州銀行 8.9% 6.6% 5.0% 4.8% 11.5% 4.7% 13.1% 12.0% 9.8%無(wú)錫銀行 4.9% 9.1% 11.0% 9.2% 10.4% 11.1% 4.1% 3.5% 6.9%常熟銀行 16.7% 15.6% 15.6% 18.8% 15.9% 16.7% 14.0% 13.6% 11.8%江陰銀行 10.2% 9.9% 7.5% 12.7% 12.3% 12.0% 11.2% 7.8% 9.3%蘇農(nóng)銀行 13.6% 17.0% 14.2% 14.5% 15.2% 13.5% 18.3% 16.9% 10.5%張家港行 13.9% 12.7% 9.9% 15.2% 11.4% 11.5% 13.6% 11.5% 8.8%紫金銀行 8.7% 9.0% 10.3% 14.4% 10.6% 10.9% 8.9% 9.6% 10.1%青農(nóng)商行 1.0% 4.7% 7.2% 3.3% 3.6% 6.2% 0.5% 3.1% 4.5%滬農(nóng)商行 10.6% 13.2% 11.2% 9.3% 9.6% 7.9% 9.1% 10.8% 7.7%渝農(nóng)商行 6.8% 9.3% 8.8% 8.7% 9.3% 7.8% 1.7% 7.7% 5.8%瑞豐銀行 16.6% 25.0% 21.4% 21.0% 19.8% 14.9% 17.4% 24.9% 25.0%資料來(lái)源：，2023（2022202312.3%、18.5%20222023202215%（20233.8。39c至%32022H1增量結(jié)構(gòu)與2022年基本一致，故此處直接將2023H1與2022全年比較。2023H1相比20222022相比20212021相比20202023H1相比20222022相比20212021相比20202020相比2019新增額增量較年初新增額增量 同比新增額增量 同比新增額增量 同比占比增速占比增速占比增速占比增速生息資產(chǎn)200,8278.2%257,87511.7%170,5358.3%186,8279.9%存放央行9,5195.2%13,0717.7%-6,503-3.7%2,7881.6%生息資產(chǎn)（剔除存款準(zhǔn)備金）191,3088.4%244,80412.1%177,038100.0%9.4%184,039100.0%10.8%貸款115,82260.5%8.0%145,97159.6%11.2%133,41875.4%11.4%127,63869.4%12.2%對(duì)公112,48458.8%14.0%93,03838.0%13.1%66,94337.8%10.4%69,29537.7%12.1%基建類46,35724.2%12.3%40,74816.6%12.1%42,43124.0%14.5%43,38623.6%17.3%房地產(chǎn)3,8482.0%4.8%3,9711.6%5.1%1,7271.0%2.3%8,0914.4%12.0%制造業(yè)25,89713.5%18.5%21,1988.7%17.8%12,8227.2%12.1%10,1485.5%10.6%票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)-9,343-4.9%-11.5%26,00110.6%46.9%8,2814.7%17.6%9910.5%2.1%個(gè)人17,8609.3%3.1%27,08511.1%5.0%58,19032.9%12.0%57,32631.1%13.4%按揭-1,588-0.8%-0.5%4,9042.0%1.4%33,62219.0%10.8%35,54219.3%12.9%消費(fèi)貸+信用卡2,3821.2%2.1%3,2181.3%2.9%9,4855.4%9.6%6,8673.7%7.5%經(jīng)營(yíng)貸9,8265.1%16.3%11,1774.6%22.8%9,7325.5%24.9%9,7745.3%33.3%其他7,7564.1%16.2%7,6833.1%19.3%5,3513.0%15.3%5,1432.8%17.2%投資類資產(chǎn)43,00522.5%5.9%77,86331.8%12.0%48,74727.5%8.1%46,13625.1%8.3%債券39,97720.9%6.6%74,08430.3%13.9%45,63125.8%9.4%46,02525.0%10.4%政府債券28,13214.7%6.6%54,86622.4%14.9%41,96523.7%12.9%43,33423.5%15.3%基金-923-0.5%-1.7%7,3023.0%15.1%7,3614.2%18.0%5,5463.0%15.6%非標(biāo)(資管產(chǎn)品）-979-0.5%-2.0%-6,336-2.6%-11.4%-3,347-1.9%-5.7%-3,292-1.8%-5.3%同業(yè)資產(chǎn)35,98418.8%26.4%23,5469.6%20.9%-5,128-2.9%-4.4%10,2655.6%9.5%資料來(lái)源：，此外值得注意的是，在2023Q2-Q3不同于總資產(chǎn)、總貸款增速連續(xù)下滑，上市銀行RWA比提升而零售貸款、政府債占比有所下降所致，以工商銀行為例：20222023H111.3%、9.8%，2023H1（占總的93%）2.22%、2023H1（/1c至..%（0.4pc、0.9pc至、19.5%2023Q1達(dá)到高峰，此后、Q3兩個(gè)季RWA3（233分別累計(jì)下降b2b23Q3風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)22A 23H1 同比 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)22A 23H1 同比 23H1同比21A 22H1信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn) 200,430204,091204,885224,821 2.22% 10.16%市場(chǎng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn) 1,537 2,215 2,032 2,286 32.22% 3.21%操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn) 14,937 14,937 15,336 15,336 2.67% 2.67%合計(jì) 216,903221,243222,253242,443 2.47% 9.58%信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露結(jié)構(gòu)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露結(jié)構(gòu)公司 133,639145,701151,398171,685 13.29% 17.83%主權(quán) 77,885 84,779 88,871 94,269 14.11% 11.19%零售 83,614 85,268 86,173 88,904 3.06% 4.26%金融機(jī)構(gòu) 32,346 42,950 41,131 50,017 27.16% 16.45%股權(quán) 1,861 1,889 1,936 1,941 4.06% 2.76%資產(chǎn)證券化 1,098 1,034 975 923 -11.23% -10.68%其他 48,560 54,058 51,391 48,613 5.83% -10.07%合計(jì) 379,002415,678421,874456,352 11.31% 9.78%信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露結(jié)構(gòu)（占比）信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露結(jié)構(gòu)（占比）股權(quán)信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露 52.88% 49.10% 48.57% 49.26%信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)加權(quán)資產(chǎn)/信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露 52.88% 49.10% 48.57% 49.26%

35.3%35.3%22.2022.20

.1% .7%4% 9.5%9.7% 11.0%0.5% 0.4%0.2% 0.2%.1% .7%4% 9.5%9.7% 11.0%0.5% 0.4%0.2% 0.2%12.2% 10.7%20.202137.6%35.9%20.200.5%0.5%0.2%資料來(lái)源：公司公告，2024展望20242023增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)：1011主要體現(xiàn)在對(duì)公基建、建筑和房地產(chǎn)業(yè)貸款。圖表8：關(guān)于“三大工程”建設(shè)的相關(guān)政策文件、會(huì)議和講話日期 政策文件日期 政策文件/會(huì)議 主要內(nèi)容2023-07關(guān)于在超大特大城市積極穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)城中村改造指導(dǎo)性文件，提出在超大、特大城市推動(dòng)城中村改造項(xiàng)目，明確工作方向。的指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn)2023-07關(guān)于積極穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)超大特大城市“平急兩用”公指導(dǎo)性文件，提出在超大、特大城市推動(dòng)“平急兩用”公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，明確共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn) 工作方向。2023-07中央政治局會(huì)議 加大保障性住房建設(shè)和供給，積極推動(dòng)城中村改造和‘平急兩用’公共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)”2023-08關(guān)于規(guī)劃建設(shè)保障性住房的指導(dǎo)意見(jiàn) 2023-09關(guān)于保障性住房有關(guān)稅費(fèi)政策的公告 地免征城鎮(zhèn)土地使用稅、個(gè)人購(gòu)買保障性住房減免1%征收契稅。2023-10中央金融工作會(huì)議 支持剛性和改善性住房需求，加快保障性住房等“三大工程”建設(shè)，構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展新模式。2023-11央行潘行長(zhǎng)講話 為保障性住房等“三大工程”建設(shè)提供中長(zhǎng)期低成本資金支持，完善住房租賃金融政策體系，推動(dòng)構(gòu)建房地產(chǎn)發(fā)展新模式。資料來(lái)源：央行，政府官網(wǎng)，地域分化：A1112）或相對(duì)受限，其他省份則與GDP增速基本匹配。B1000500-10002022109（2025027建筑2023Q370%310%。2024得分區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)前三季度得分區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)前三季度財(cái)政自規(guī)模增速（23Q3規(guī)模增速（23Q3同比）業(yè)務(wù)結(jié)構(gòu)工商銀行建設(shè)銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國(guó)銀行交通銀行郵儲(chǔ)銀行中信銀行浦發(fā)銀行民生銀行興業(yè)銀行華夏銀行平安銀行浙商銀行北京銀行南京銀行寧波銀行上海銀行貴陽(yáng)銀行杭州銀行江蘇銀行成都銀行鄭州銀行長(zhǎng)沙銀行青島銀行西安銀行蘇州銀行廈門銀行齊魯銀行重慶銀行蘭州銀行無(wú)錫銀行常熟銀行江陰銀行蘇農(nóng)銀行張家港行紫金銀行青農(nóng)商行滬農(nóng)商行渝農(nóng)商行瑞豐銀行

14.4%9.0%9.9%3.5%4.5%5.4%9.2%9.1%6.8%6.2%15.2%15.3%6.1%4.9%14.5%17.1%4.3%9.4%14.5%4.1%15.8%5.0%15.6%7.5%9.9%7.2%8.8%21.4%

12.5% 713.1% 615.0% 813.4% 69.6% 412.1% 77.7% 47.2% 20.1% 16.1% 39.9% 45.5% 31.3% 13.8% 112.7% 713.5% 817.3% 918.9% 95.6% 216.1% 615.9% 812.9% 725.8% 8.1% 315.2% 810.1% 54.7% 418.0% 96.6% 215.7% 912.5% 64.7% 211.1% 616.7% 912.0% 513.5% 711.5% 510.9% 56.2% 37.9% 47.8% 314.9%

42% 837% 640% 730% 341% 824% 323% 330% 331% 435% 634% 532% 440% 812% 134% 536% 645% 933% 540% 755% 50% 932% 458% 46% 934% 644% 937% 732% 522% 243% 846% 937% 730% 310% 119% 220% 215% 236% 638% 732% 432% 415% 1

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 北京 5.1江蘇 5.8浙江 6.3上海 貴州 4.8浙江 6.3江蘇 5.8四川 6.5河南 3.8湖南 山東 陜西 2.4江蘇 5.8福建 4.1山東 重慶 5.6甘肅 6.6江蘇 5.8江蘇 5.8江蘇 5.8江蘇 5.8江蘇 5.8江蘇 5.8山東 上海 重慶 5.6浙江 6.3

-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 5-- 577 262 867 981 932 167 962 841 40 129 159 949 162 859 259 943 121 162 862 862 862 862 862 859 981 943 167 9

-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- 北京 5南京 5寧波 上海 5貴陽(yáng) 杭州 5南京 5成都 5鄭州 5長(zhǎng)沙 5青島 5西安 5蘇州 5廈門 濟(jì)南 5重慶 5蘭州 無(wú)錫 常熟 江陰 蘇州 5張家港 南京 5青島 5上海 5重慶 5紹興

資料來(lái)源：，息差：按揭占比低、化債壓力小、個(gè)人存款定期占比高的銀行更具優(yōu)勢(shì)在資產(chǎn)端LPR232023Q1-Q373A下降p02bp展望2024農(nóng)商行。10

息差環(huán)比變動(dòng)2022202222Q12022Q1 H -Q3 A-1息差環(huán)比變動(dòng)2022202222Q12022Q1 H -Q3 A-1-7 -5 -62-6 -4-3-3-7 -6 -6-121 -10-3 -3 -2-4 -5 -4 -33-7-3 -1-3 -3 -3 11 -7-22 -4 -3 -2-- ---50-10 -5-22 0 -1 -21-41 -21 -7-6 -1-4 -2（bp）2023Q1-15-19-20-6-15-11-11-10-21-11---19-15-12-2202023H-5-4-4-3-2-1-6-2-1---8-823Q1-Q3-5-4-4-3-1-3-4-3--0-1--0-8------2022全年降幅（bp）-19-11-221-8-16-8-8-6-31-19-15-25-4-6-7-6降幅（bp）-20-23-24-9-17-12 -17-12 -21 -12-15-19 -23-20-7-2202023前三季度降幅（bp）-25-27-28-12-18-15-21-15---12-16---23-28-------2833-2 -7-4-19 -9 -138 -14---20-14--180-9-90-41-9-1314 0 -13---14-13---4-4--4-4-----8-14---4-14---5 6 -7--1-7--上市銀行2021A2022Q1

2022H22Q1-Q3

2022A

2023H23Q1-Q3工商銀行建設(shè)銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國(guó)銀行交通銀行郵儲(chǔ)銀行中信銀行浦發(fā)銀行民生銀行興業(yè)銀行華夏銀行平安銀行浙商銀行北京銀行南京銀行寧波銀行上海銀行貴陽(yáng)銀行杭州銀行江蘇銀行成都銀行鄭州銀行長(zhǎng)沙銀行

------------------------

--1.62%1.62%2.12%2.10%--2.77%2.12%2.10%------------------

1.701.831.701.831.701.701.331.332.092.091.872.291.872.29------1.95%1.95%2.63%------------------

1.67%1.621.751.621.751.641.641.301.301.822.191.822.192.05--1.941.481.941.48--1.87%1.87%2.47%2.47%------------------

3--8-8-6 -3 4

-- -9 -12

1.76%

-41 0 090 -1 -3 9 8

1.91% --1.91%1.77%1.62% --2.02%1.93%2.06% --

1.74% --1.82%1.85%1.49% --1.94%1.95%1.78% --

1.66% --1.87%1.77%1.53% --1.96%1.88%1.74% --

1.43% --1.74%1.71%1.34% --1.86%1.81%1.63% --

-17-145-13-9 1-28

-8 -23 --3 2 -10 -3 4 -19 --1 1 -8 -2 -4 -11 --

-25 -4 -9 -6 -32

---16-- -15 --

1.54%

-191 04-103

-14

-7 -8

1.95%

1.85%

1.81%

1.66%

-10 -4

-15

-- -14 -15 --

2.95% 2.07%

0 1-4

-8 0 -23 -13

-5 -13 4

-2 -72 -11

2.24%

2.02%

2.04%

1.73%

-22 2

-31

-- -20 -31 --

2.25%

-201 1 0-15 -5

-18

-20 -22

1 -5 -21 4

-2 -18 -3 00 -9 -5

-16

-21 -21-14 -15

1.86%

1.87%

1.83%

1.72% -- 1

-4 -11

-3 -11 --渝農(nóng)商行瑞豐銀行國(guó)有大行股份行城商行農(nóng)商行上市銀行

2.03%2.28%2.07%2.24%2.08%

2.07%--

1.82%--

1.71%1.99%1.89%1.96%1.76%

1.67%1.96%1.86%1.93%1.73%

-10---1-6-4-8-2

-4 -5 -1--0-3-5 -4 -4-4 -2 -1-821-2 -2 -1-5 -3 -3

-15---15-11-12-14

-3 -2-- -4 -4-5 -3-4 -3-3 -2-4 -4

-20 -18 -20-13 -35 -46-13 -19 -22-13 -16 -19-10 -7 -11-14 -14 -17-13 -18 -22資料來(lái)源：，注：計(jì)算平均息差時(shí)，季度息差披露不全的銀行未納入。今年集中讓利，利空政策均已落地：LPR15年期LPR1年期LPR10bps。2223Q3%pp01.372.9%1117日，突出重點(diǎn)、分類施策，與融資平臺(tái)開(kāi)展平等協(xié)商，通過(guò)展期、借新還舊、置換等方式，合理降低債務(wù)成本、優(yōu)化期限結(jié)構(gòu)，確保金融支持地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)化解工作落實(shí)落細(xì)，預(yù)計(jì)后續(xù)展期、置換等化債模式也會(huì)陸續(xù)跟進(jìn)。2%于國(guó)有大行5年期存款掛牌利率2.25%。從央行數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)看，9月新發(fā)企業(yè)貸款加權(quán)平均.%bp（02bp.5668，較3月低點(diǎn)回升26bps，或與信用下沉、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)壓力緩解有關(guān)。出消費(fèi)貸優(yōu)惠措施，利率最低降至3%5。圖表11：全行業(yè)加權(quán)平均貸款利率走勢(shì)（%）中國(guó):金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣貸款加權(quán)平均利率:個(gè)人住房貸款中國(guó):金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣貸款加權(quán)平均利率:企業(yè)貸款7.0

中國(guó):金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣貸款加權(quán)平均利率:一般貸款6.56.05.55.04.54.03.5資料來(lái)源：，注：一般貸款指企業(yè)貸款+零售貸款，不含票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)。202192023620239但受限于存款定期化現(xiàn)象，上市銀行2021H2-2023H1期間存款成本整體上升18bps，（p、ps、ps和p4來(lái)源華夏時(shí)報(bào)新聞，https:///article/127443.html5來(lái)源華夏時(shí)報(bào)新聞，https:///article/132098.html分4p10p.p3p。10bps19bps23bps。勢(shì)所趨。圖表12：上市銀行存款利率、結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)比總存款個(gè)人存款個(gè)人定期存款利率個(gè)人活期對(duì)公存款對(duì)公定期對(duì)公活期個(gè)人存款個(gè)人定期存款結(jié)構(gòu)個(gè)人活期對(duì)公存款對(duì)公定期對(duì)公活期活期存款期限結(jié)構(gòu)3個(gè)月內(nèi),3個(gè)月到1不含活期 年1-5年5年以上工商銀行1.90%1.77%2.74%0.27%1.84%2.72%1.00%49.0%30.8%18.2%50.3%26.3%24.0%42.2%12.6%21.2%24.0%0.0%建設(shè)銀行1.77%1.83%2.71%0.25%1.66%2.71%0.95%54.1%33.6%20.5%45.9%20.0%25.9%46.4%12.9%17.2%23.4%0.0%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行1.77%1.70%2.75%0.25%1.87%2.66%1.15%59.4%35.9%23.5%38.2%17.0%21.2%44.8%14.6%16.6%24.0%0.1%中國(guó)銀行2.04%1.85%2.64%0.24%1.72%2.74%1.03%45.5%28.5%17.0%49.7%23.7%26.1%43.1%18.0%19.5%19.3%0.1%交通銀行2.35%2.40%3.11%0.25%2.32%3.16%1.08%38.8%28.3%10.5%61.2%36.0%25.2%35.7%20.5%19.3%24.6%0.0%郵儲(chǔ)銀行1.54%1.57%2.21%0.23%1.33%2.04%0.85%89.0%66.6%22.4%11.0%3.7%7.3%29.7%12.4%47.4%10.4%0.0%招商銀行1.61%1.36%2.70%0.43%1.78%2.74%1.13%41.3%17.6%23.7%58.7%23.9%34.8%58.5%9.3%13.0%18.7%0.4%中信銀行2.14%2.29%2.86%0.33%2.09%2.90%1.42%26.2%19.9%6.3%73.8%33.4%40.4%46.7%20.7%12.9%19.7%0.0%浦發(fā)銀行2.19%2.20%2.80%0.23%2.18%2.91%1.54%28.0%19.9%8.1%72.0%35.9%36.1%44.1%21.6%14.6%19.6%0.0%民生銀行2.33%2.26%2.87%0.28%2.35%2.98%1.38%28.0%20.4%7.6%71.7%46.0%25.7%33.3%26.1%16.5%23.6%0.4%興業(yè)銀行2.26%2.24%3.02%0.25%2.27%3.15%1.25%24.2%17.2%7.1%68.9%39.0%29.9%36.9%20.5%15.0%27.6%0.0%光大銀行2.35%2.40%2.85%0.36%2.32%2.96%1.22%29.4%22.7%6.7%70.6%35.6%35.0%41.7%13.8%16.5%27.2%0.8%華夏銀行2.05%2.06%2.57%0.22%2.05%2.77%1.11%24.1%17.1%7.0%67.5%38.1%29.4%36.4%26.1%21.3%16.2%0.0%平安銀行2.20%2.30%2.81%0.22%2.14%2.95%1.15%33.9%25.4%8.5%66.1%37.2%28.8%37.4%18.8%16.1%27.7%0.0%浙商銀行2.24%2.45%2.59%0.36%2.21%3.10%1.61%13.5%10.3%3.2%86.5%44.1%42.4%45.6%12.2%17.6%24.6%0.0%北京銀行1.96%2.20%----1.86%----28.2%20.1%8.0%64.3%31.9%32.4%40.4%16.0%26.6%17.0%0.0%南京銀行2.43%2.89%2.77%0.27%2.24%3.29%1.01%28.9%25.7%3.2%67.4%48.2%19.3%22.4%20.9%24.5%32.0%0.2%寧波銀行1.94%2.24%2.40%0.25%1.85%2.90%0.94%24.0%18.4%5.5%76.0%45.3%30.7%36.3%21.4%17.3%25.1%0.0%上海銀行2.10%2.31%2.75%0.22%2.00%2.94%0.92%32.7%25.6%7.1%67.3%36.0%31.3%38.4%16.6%22.1%22.9%0.0%貴陽(yáng)銀行2.53%2.77%3.13%0.28%2.31%3.58%1.23%47.6%36.3%11.3%49.3%26.4%22.8%34.1%7.3%24.0%33.8%0.8%杭州銀行2.23%------------20.8%15.4%5.4%75.9%31.5%44.4%49.7%13.3%16.8%20.0%0.0%江蘇銀行2.26%------------36.1%30.8%5.2%51.5%30.8%22.7%27.9%21.0%24.8%26.0%0.3%成都銀行2.22%2.76%2.63%0.39%1.77%3.22%1.02%44.4%37.6%6.8%53.1%22.5%30.6%37.4%10.5%23.3%28.8%0.0%鄭州銀行2.28%3.00%2.72%0.42%1.65%3.77%0.69%45.4%35.0%10.3%44.4%20.5%23.9%34.2%14.2%27.7%23.9%0.0%長(zhǎng)沙銀行2.04%2.27%3.07%0.35%1.83%3.10%0.77%49.4%35.0%14.3%47.4%19.8%27.6%41.9%8.9%20.1%29.0%0.0%青島銀行2.25%2.67%2.77%0.23%1.91%3.21%0.87%45.4%37.8%7.6%54.6%28.1%26.5%34.1%12.4%19.1%34.4%0.0%西安銀行2.64%3.14%----2.05%----55.4%48.5%6.9%42.7%20.3%22.4%29.3%5.7%17.5%47.5%0.0%蘇州銀行2.18%2.50%2.91%0.29%1.90%3.13%0.79%48.7%39.2%9.4%45.1%22.7%22.4%31.9%11.7%21.6%34.9%0.0%廈門銀行2.45%------------32.7%25.7%6.9%56.7%35.4%21.3%28.2%21.9%18.2%31.3%0.3%齊魯銀行2.14%2.61%2.45%0.32%1.71%3.10%0.85%47.2%38.8%8.4%26.8%26.8%26.0%34.4%9.5%26.7%29.4%0.0%重慶銀行2.83%3.23%3.10%0.28%2.50%3.58%1.23%47.3%42.5%4.8%48.6%32.1%16.5%21.4%9.2%25.6%43.7%0.0%蘭州銀行2.91%3.43%----1.85%----66.8%57.7%9.0%28.0%3.3%24.7%33.8%14.4%22.9%27.3%1.7%無(wú)錫銀行2.33%2.60%2.67%0.21%2.03%3.05%1.05%57.4%48.5%8.9%38.3%22.8%15.5%24.4%8.3%31.3%36.0%0.0%常熟銀行2.28%2.68%2.85%0.18%1.47%3.06%0.60%67.7%58.1%9.6%24.6%10.1%14.5%24.2%12.8%26.0%37.0%0.0%江陰銀行2.02%------------56.9%46.1%10.8%34.8%14.6%20.2%30.9%14.4%27.1%27.6%0.0%蘇農(nóng)銀行1.98%2.60%2.70%0.20%1.47%3.06%0.64%55.0%46.0%9.0%39.0%13.7%25.3%34.3%8.6%11.2%34.2%11.7%張家港行2.33%------------59.2%50.5%8.7%32.3%16.8%15.5%24.2%13.1%26.7%36.0%0.0%紫金銀行2.26%2.66%2.96%0.25%1.80%3.06%0.72%56.0%48.6%7.5%40.6%19.4%21.2%28.7%10.8%31.3%29.2%0.0%青農(nóng)商行2.07%2.41%2.23%0.24%1.28%2.90%0.64%69.5%56.3%13.2%30.5%11.3%19.2%32.4%10.8%26.8%30.0%0.0%滬農(nóng)商行1.98%2.47%2.57%0.23%1.46%2.87%0.69%51.7%44.2%7.5%41.9%15.9%26.0%33.5%13.0%23.6%29.9%0.0%渝農(nóng)商行1.91%2.01%2.72%0.22%1.42%2.44%0.70%82.2%66.9%15.2%16.8%5.9%10.9%26.1%11.9%38.1%23.9%0.0%瑞豐銀行2.30%2.46%2.54%0.32%1.97%2.84%1.81%65.7%56.1%9.6%32.2%7.4%24.8%34.3%11.6%23.1%30.9%0.0%資料來(lái)源：，（以AC為主，此外FV-OCI的票息收入也計(jì)入利息收入（10202225bps（債、政府債利率的下限。2016+2.3%2.5%201610因）13（1010 10銀行負(fù)債成本率+管理成本率2022年以來(lái)基本穩(wěn)定在 10銀行負(fù)債成本率+管理成本率

圖表14：10年期國(guó)債利率與銀行負(fù)債成本率+管理成本率比較（%）4.5東北華北華東華南東北華北華東華南華中西北西20Q10.280.280.360.410.290.2620Q4.020Q30.230.260.260.230.2421Q1 0.28 0.21 0.25 0.2821Q2 0.23 0.20 0.22 0.1921Q3 0.22 0.22 0.1822Q10.220.1922Q222Q10.220.1922Q20.200.1422Q30.2522Q4 0.1323Q123Q223

3.53.02.52.0資料來(lái)源：， 資料來(lái)源：，綜合以上分析，上市銀行內(nèi)部來(lái)看，不同銀行息差表現(xiàn)分化的關(guān)鍵在于：（）我們據(jù)此為上市銀行打分，計(jì)算方式為：*一結(jié)果對(duì)銀行進(jìn)行排名?；瘋绊懀?*影響幅度系數(shù)，根據(jù)結(jié)果對(duì)銀行排名。（FV-OCI）據(jù)各銀行AC+FV-OCI規(guī)模占生息資產(chǎn)比重排名。存款結(jié)構(gòu)：*313個(gè)月到1年期占比越高，越受益于存款利率下調(diào)，得分越高。按揭利率下調(diào)得分*35%+化債影響得分*35AC占比得分*10%+存款結(jié)構(gòu)得分影響最小給予20%。6由于部分銀行上市較晚，此處僅計(jì)算老16家銀行付息負(fù)債成本率，管理成本率根據(jù)管理費(fèi)用*利息凈收入/營(yíng)業(yè)收入/總資產(chǎn)計(jì)算圖表15：上市銀行息差表現(xiàn)匯總比較存量按揭影響存量按揭影響城投化債影響存款結(jié)構(gòu)存量按下調(diào)幅度按揭下基建類調(diào)利率占生息得分資產(chǎn)下調(diào)幅度化債影響得分（AC+FV_OCI）/配置盤個(gè)人定3個(gè)月3個(gè)月生息資產(chǎn)占比得 內(nèi),不含期存款 到1年分占比比.6%.9%.6%.0%5%12.占比存款結(jié)構(gòu)得分工商銀行建設(shè)銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國(guó)銀行交通銀行郵儲(chǔ)銀行招商銀行中信銀行浦發(fā)銀行民生銀行興業(yè)銀行光大銀行華夏銀行平安銀行浙商銀行北京銀行南京銀行寧波銀行上海銀行貴陽(yáng)銀行杭州銀行江蘇銀行成都銀行鄭州銀行長(zhǎng)沙銀行青島銀行西安銀行蘇州銀行廈門銀行齊魯銀行重慶銀行蘭州銀行無(wú)錫銀行常熟銀行江陰銀行蘇農(nóng)銀行張家港行紫金銀行16%18%15%16%12%16%14%12%11%8%12%10%9%6%5%10%4%4%6%3%6%9%9%6%8%9%6%7%7%10%6%7%7%4%5%5%-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-1.0-3.0-1.0-1.0-7.0-3.0-3.0-7.0-7.0-5.0-5.0-5.0-3.0-1.0-3.0-7.0-7.0-3.0-321213123352446699101078634546796522%19%20%13%19%10%10%15%13%14%14%14%20%2%13%15%23%11%13%11%20%15%27%19%13%12%11%12-6.0-6.0-6.0-6.0-6.0-6.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-4.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-1.0-9.0-1.0-1.0-7.0-7.0-7232424656555496768837723.4%21.8%24.2%19.1%21.7%25.7%20.7%17.5%17.9%24.1%18.7%21.4%18.7%12.0%17.156486379948630.8%33.6%35.9%28.5%28.3%66.6%17.6%19.9%19.921.2%17.2%1620.18141212青農(nóng)商行滬農(nóng)商渝農(nóng)瑞資料來(lái)源：，資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量：報(bào)表指標(biāo)預(yù)計(jì)穩(wěn)定，利潤(rùn)釋放空間有一定分化（前三季度同比少提21年基本56%展望2024年，上市銀行地產(chǎn)、城投、零售領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)計(jì)可控，報(bào)表資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)有望2023計(jì)提力度較大、不良生成率持續(xù)改善，非信貸資產(chǎn)撥備充足的銀行利潤(rùn)釋放空間或更大，2024今年以來(lái)上市銀行資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量報(bào)表指標(biāo)穩(wěn)中向好。截止9月末上市銀行整體不良率為1.27%0.03pc246%.1%6.2%.5c，0.69%0.07pc圖表16：上市銀行不良率、關(guān)注率占比等資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量指標(biāo)表現(xiàn)資料來(lái)源：，公司公告，核銷力度自然放緩，資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量包袱持續(xù)化解。2018-2023H1上市銀行累計(jì)已核銷貸款4.65萬(wàn)億，是6月末不良貸款的2.3倍，6月末貸款余額的3.0%，存量包袱穩(wěn)步出清。年化20202023H139%，圖表17：上市銀行核銷貸款規(guī)模/不良貸款余額（半年度已年化）資料來(lái)源：，公司公告，展望2024年：地產(chǎn)、城投和零售領(lǐng)域風(fēng)險(xiǎn)整體可控，預(yù)計(jì)上市銀行資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量報(bào)表指標(biāo)將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定。地產(chǎn)方面，隨著地產(chǎn)支持政策持續(xù)落地，部分上市銀行地產(chǎn)不良率已，2023H15.4%，較年初下降0.2pc。當(dāng)前各項(xiàng)地產(chǎn)支持政策持續(xù)落地，部分上市銀行對(duì)公地產(chǎn)不良率也開(kāi)始下降，預(yù)計(jì)最大壓力時(shí)點(diǎn)已過(guò)，未來(lái)報(bào)表指標(biāo)有望保持穩(wěn)定。政策層面6）已經(jīng)延期到2024年底，對(duì)報(bào)表指標(biāo)的潛在影響較小，主要涉及的政策包括：A2024年12月31展期1年，可不調(diào)整貸款分類，報(bào)送征信系統(tǒng)的貸款分類與之保持一致。B2024年12月31上市銀行自身來(lái)看，地產(chǎn)不良貸款生成峰值在2022年，今年已經(jīng)有所緩解，上半年不良生成為48億元，同比下降26億元，9月末對(duì)公地產(chǎn)貸款不良率為5.3%6.1p10.5%圖表18：上市銀行對(duì)公地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)占比、不良率表現(xiàn)對(duì)公房地產(chǎn)占比22A 23H 變動(dòng)對(duì)公房地產(chǎn)不良率22H 22A 23H按揭貸款占比22A 23H 變動(dòng)按揭不良率22H 22A23H工商銀行4.21%4.06%-0.15pc5.47%6.14%6.68%27.71%25.20%-2.51pc0.31%0.39%0.42%建設(shè)銀行4.20%4.15%-0.05pc2.98%4.36%4.76%30.96%28.06%-2.90pc0.25%0.37%0.42%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行4.52%4.37%-0.15pc3.97%5.48%5.79%27.11%24.46%-2.65pc0.36%0.51%0.50%中國(guó)銀行7.77%7.61%-0.15pc5.67%7.23%5.11%28.08%25.28%-2.81pc0.36%0.47%0.49%交通銀行7.13%6.50%-0.63pc1.90%2.80%3.39%20.73%19.20%-1.53pc0.37%0.44%0.47%郵儲(chǔ)銀行2.93%3.12%0.19pc1.01%1.45%1.01%31.37%29.71%-1.66pc0.52%0.57%0.50%招商銀行6.21%5.60%-0.62pc2.82%4.08%5.52%22.96%21.69%-1.27pc0.27%0.35%0.35%中信銀行5.38%5.26%-0.12pc2.89%3.08%5.29%18.94%18.31%-0.62pc浦發(fā)銀行6.57%6.38%-0.19pc3.83%3.06%2.88%17.80%17.17%-0.62pc0.52%0.52%0.58%民生銀行8.77%8.70%-0.08pc2.99%4.28%5.13%13.84%12.77%-1.08pc0.33%0.50%0.57%興業(yè)銀行7.14%7.76%0.62pc2.15%1.30%0.81%22.02%20.79%-1.23pc0.51%0.56%0.51%光大銀行5.00%4.61%-0.40pc2.56%3.89%4.22%16.51%15.80%-0.71pc華夏銀行4.60%4.03%-0.57pc0.62%2.82%3.77%14.00%13.70%-0.29pc平安銀行8.52%8.02%-0.49pc0.77%1.43%1.01%8.54%8.43%-0.11pc0.30%0.37%0.32%浙商銀行10.98%10.51%-0.47pc0.90%1.66%2.31%7.06%7.55%0.49pc北京銀行6.10%6.09%0.00pc3.47%18.87%16.95%-1.92pc南京銀行4.03%4.94%0.92pc1.01%0.96%1.06%8.61%7.27%-1.34pc0.44%0.43%0.51%寧波銀行8.05%8.22%0.17pc0.87%0.41%0.28%6.15%6.94%0.80pc上海銀行9.94%9.02%-0.92pc2.89%2.56%2.06%12.63%12.07%-0.56pc0.14%0.16%0.20%貴陽(yáng)銀行8.91%9.90%0.99pc2.59%2.55%2.20%6.84%6.37%-0.47pc杭州銀行5.64%4.72%-0.92pc3.46%3.45%3.85%12.81%11.91%-0.90pc0.08%0.11%0.18%江蘇銀行5.57%5.47%-0.10pc1.70%1.87%2.08%15.27%14.41%-0.86pc成都銀行6.54%6.65%0.12pc2.70%2.40%2.17%17.75%15.46%-2.29pc0.33%0.41%0.46%鄭州銀行9.94%8.59%-1.34pc3.36%4.06%4.19%11.41%9.95%-1.46pc1.34%1.65%1.67%長(zhǎng)沙銀行2.56%2.53%-0.04pc15.49%14.34%-1.15pc青島銀行8.08%7.90%-0.18pc17.27%16.31%-0.96pc西安銀行4.86%5.05%0.19pc13.06%12.55%-0.51pc蘇州銀行3.96%4.93%0.97pc5.58%4.55%3.20%13.63%12.60%-1.02pc0.17%0.24%0.22%廈門銀行4.20%3.65%-0.56pc2.95%4.81%5.22%13.95%12.35%-1.60pc齊魯銀行2.60%1.89%-0.70pc1.71%2.51%6.77%18.10%18.02%-0.08pc重慶銀行2.90%2.66%-0.24pc6.15%5.88%7.14%11.86%10.86%-1.00pc0.37%0.52%0.71%蘭州銀行8.58%8.97%0.39pc14.12%13.43%-0.69pc無(wú)錫銀行0.55%0.62%0.07pc12.54%10.42%-2.12pc常熟銀行0.94%0.96%0.02pc7.18%6.32%-0.86pc0.32%0.50%0.52%江陰銀行0.32%0.74%0.42pc9.72%8.12%-1.60pc蘇農(nóng)銀行2.09%1.96%-0.13pc8.34%7.10%-1.23pc張家港行0.97%1.04%0.08pc9.24%9.05%-0.20pc紫金銀行4.79%4.18%-0.61pc10.74%青農(nóng)商行10.37%9.32%-1.04pc1.80%6.10%3.02%13.26%12.20%-1.06pc0.60%0.75%0.84%滬農(nóng)商行14.98%15.04%0.06pc1.32%1.39%1.78%16.89%15.68%-1.21pc渝農(nóng)商行0.70%0.52%-0.17pc7.28%9.10%15.33%14.08%-1.25pc0.70%0.77%1.01%瑞豐銀行1.20%1.71%0.51pc15.07%11.83%-3.24pc資料來(lái)源：，存量化解A1.372.9%進(jìn)7。此外央行潘行長(zhǎng)11月講話中也提到了“必要時(shí)，央行還將對(duì)債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)相對(duì)較重地區(qū)提供應(yīng)急流動(dòng)性貸款支持”。B圖表19：各省市特殊再融資債發(fā)行規(guī)模（億元）和平均發(fā)行利率（%）省份/城市 發(fā)行規(guī)模平均發(fā)行利率省份/城市 發(fā)行規(guī)模平均發(fā)行利率貴州21492.92四川2803.05天津12862.89河北2772.83云南12562.88江蘇2612.91湖南11222.75甘肅2202.96內(nèi)蒙古10672.81江西1563.02遼寧10062.99陜西1002.95吉林8923.09青海962.99重慶7262.93湖北922.89廣西6232.88寧夏803.06安徽6202.77新疆562.98河南3482.78山西282.79黑龍江3033.10寧波252.71福建2823.02海南243.05山東2822.98合計(jì)136572.91資料來(lái)源：，20242021微貸款同比增速穩(wěn)定在24%8，或711月17日央行召開(kāi)金融機(jī)構(gòu)座談會(huì)，要求金融機(jī)構(gòu)要完善工作機(jī)制，突出重點(diǎn)、分類施策，與融資平臺(tái)開(kāi)展平等協(xié)商，通過(guò)展期、借新還舊、置換等方式，合理降低債務(wù)成本、優(yōu)化期限結(jié)構(gòu)，確保金融支持地方債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)化解工作落實(shí)落細(xì)。8根據(jù)2022年11月央行的通知：對(duì)于2022年第四季度到期的、因新冠肺炎疫情影響暫時(shí)遇困的小微企業(yè)貸款（含個(gè)體工商戶和小微企業(yè)主經(jīng)營(yíng)性貸款2023630日。圖表20：上市銀行零售貸款資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量情況個(gè)貸整體不良率（含按揭）信用卡不良率消費(fèi)貸不良率2022-062022-122023-06經(jīng)營(yíng)貸不良率2022-062022-122023-062022-062022-122023-062022-062022-122023-06工商銀行0.56%0.60%0.66%2.24%1.83%2.27%1.54%1.70%1.84%0.89%0.91%0.79%建設(shè)銀行0.44%0.55%0.61%1.44%1.46%1.66%0.85%0.89%0.67%0.64%0.65%0.58%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行0.54%0.65%0.66%0.96%0.98%1.60%1.12%1.25%0.99%0.60%0.65%0.57%中國(guó)銀行0.60%0.71%0.75%1.92%2.02%1.93%------------交通銀行0.94%0.85%0.96%2.66%1.95%2.44%------0.74%0.72%0.61%郵儲(chǔ)銀行1.11%1.13%1.09%1.82%1.95%1.83%2.27%2.14%2.25%------招商銀行0.82%0.89%0.84%1.67%1.77%1.68%------0.63%0.64%0.56%中信銀行0.99%1.03%1.08%1.92%2.06%2.02%------------浦發(fā)銀行1.42%1.29%1.47%2.03%1.82%2.49%------1.60%1.51%1.59%民生銀行1.59%1.50%1.41%2.95%2.67%2.90%------1.81%1.61%1.17%興業(yè)銀行1.17%1.47%1.39%2.73%4.01%3.94%------0.60%0.56%0.61%光大銀行1.02%1.09%1.18%------------------華夏銀行1.88%1.51%1.55%------------------平安銀行1.18%1.32%1.35%2.15%2.68%2.88%1.11%1.27%1.40%------浙商銀行1.43%1.50%1.50%------------------南京銀行1.16%1.09%1.59%2.33%3.15%--1.57%1.32%--1.08%0.96%--寧波銀行1.33%1.39%1.48%1.16%--1.19%------------上海銀行0.97%0.83%0.98%1.94%1.83%2.14%2.11%1.70%1.81%0.42%0.57%0.95%杭州銀行0.41%0.61%0.74%------0.66%1.07%1.72%0.56%0.76%0.73%江蘇銀行0.74%0.86%0.88%------------1.34%1.47%1.67%成都銀行0.53%0.58%0.58%0.41%0.43%0.87%3.43%3.04%0.68%2.31%1.92%1.37%鄭州銀行2.26%2.49%2.32%2.02%2.09%2.04%----1.81%3.27%3.38%3.15%蘇州銀行0.51%0.68%0.92%------1.08%0.93%1.26%0.59%0.95%1.37%齊魯銀行0.85%0.96%0.97%------------------重慶銀行0.98%1.30%1.65%0.98%1.51%1.79%0.93%1.49%1.65%2.20%2.46%3.20%常熟銀行0.85%0.89%0.80%0.57%0.62%0.91%0.87%0.90%0.96%0.96%0.99%0.80%青農(nóng)商行1.22%1.43%1.38%------1.69%1.70%1.58%1.78%2.00%1.79%滬農(nóng)商行0.72%0.79%0.94%------------------渝農(nóng)商行1.11%1.17%1.34%------------1.47%1.49%1.75%瑞豐銀行1.01%1.14%1.21%------------------資料來(lái)源：，在資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量保持穩(wěn)定的前提下，上市銀行自2021年以來(lái)持續(xù)少提撥備來(lái)釋放利潤(rùn)。202120222023H1-4%-11%-9%信貸減值損失：80-90%2021、20226%2023H1/2020、2021、2022、2023H1計(jì)提力度分別為108%、136%、114%、136%，同期上市銀行不良生成率分別為1.14%、0.76%、0.76%、0.69%，因此可以發(fā)現(xiàn)：A2021B、2022年不良生成率基本與2021年持平，上市銀行在資產(chǎn)質(zhì)量保持穩(wěn)定的情況下，計(jì)提力度有一定下降。C、2023（2021年水平10-20%左右，非信貸撥備池占總減值準(zhǔn)備在16%左右，規(guī)模相對(duì)較小，短期波動(dòng)也相2.0%20201.1pc下降6c至.120、2023H16%-33%、-56%。圖表21：上市銀行利潤(rùn)增速、信貸減值和非信貸減值計(jì)提情況利潤(rùn)同比

資產(chǎn)減值損失同比

信貸減值損失同比

非信貸減值損失同比 信貸減值損失/資產(chǎn)減值損失工商銀行建設(shè)銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國(guó)銀行交通銀行郵儲(chǔ)銀行中信銀行浦發(fā)銀行民生銀行興業(yè)銀行華夏銀行平安銀行浙商銀行北京銀行南京銀行寧波銀行上海銀行貴陽(yáng)銀行杭州銀行江蘇銀行成都銀行鄭州銀行長(zhǎng)沙銀行青島銀行西安銀行蘇州銀行廈門銀行齊魯銀行重慶銀行蘭州銀行無(wú)錫銀行常熟銀行江陰銀行蘇農(nóng)銀行張家港行紫金銀行青農(nóng)商行滬農(nóng)商行渝農(nóng)商行瑞豐銀行上市銀行

23H11%3% 2%7% 2%7% 3%5% 1%5% 5%5%2%-1% -9% -3%-23%-36% 0% 3% 1%1%3% -3%6% 3%-5% 3% 8%0% 3%5%3% 6% 1% 2% 2% 1% 8%3%9%-4% 2%-25%-19%5%8%5%5%3% 2%-14% 4%7%8%5% 5% 4% 2% 5%5%1%4%4%5%2% 5% 6% 5% 4%-24% -8%-14%7%6%1%8%

23H1-0%-10% -11% -8% 1%-12% -12% -0%-9% -9% -7%-24%-29%6% 2%-13%-25%7%-7% -7%-18%6% -2% -3% -17%-37% -11%-27% -4% -8% -13%-13%-10%5% -3%-17%7%-5%-11% 5% 8% -4% -16% 7% 9%-18%-38%-27%5% -6%-29%-0%-12%-25%-30%-34%1%-4% 7%-12%1% -3% -14%-17%-30%-49%-66%2%-30% 1%-16% -2%-36%-37%-10%-1%-25% 5% -10%-27%-35%-5%-18%-25%-6%-30%-27% 6%-20%-14%-10%6%-28%-49%7% 6% -4% -4%-11%

23H16% -2%-15%-4%-13% 5%-17% 5% -5% -6%-9% -45%-36%-14%-21%1%-28%-12%7%-14% 1%-14%-24%-29% 5% -8%-17%-5% -6% -29% 5%-19%8% -29% -5%-12%-5% 4%-37%-19%-44%-34% -3% 6%-38%-39%-2%-7%-17%-32%6%-2% 5%-15%-27%-0%-2%-39% -41%-30%9%-24%-11%5%-20% 6%-35%-64%0%-41%-13%-0%-29% 2%-18%-16%-14%-11% -8%-37%-36%-50%-11%-24%-30%-66%4%5% 8%-6% -6%

-63% 轉(zhuǎn)回 轉(zhuǎn)正 -62% 轉(zhuǎn)回-28% -15% 轉(zhuǎn)回 轉(zhuǎn)正 轉(zhuǎn)回 -58% -42% -5% -21% -61% -18% -50% 轉(zhuǎn)回-30% -61% -47% -50% -9% -19% -30% -20% 轉(zhuǎn)回 轉(zhuǎn)回7% 轉(zhuǎn)回 轉(zhuǎn)正-69% -52% -55% 4% -88% 轉(zhuǎn)回3% 轉(zhuǎn)回 轉(zhuǎn)-43% -28% -49% -24% 8% 5% -75% -4% -54% -80% 轉(zhuǎn)回 轉(zhuǎn)回-2% -34% -34% -92%-55% -85%轉(zhuǎn)回轉(zhuǎn)回轉(zhuǎn)正轉(zhuǎn)回轉(zhuǎn)正-78%轉(zhuǎn)回轉(zhuǎn)回轉(zhuǎn)正轉(zhuǎn)回77%轉(zhuǎn)回-51% -97% 轉(zhuǎn)正-44% -6% 轉(zhuǎn)回-82% 轉(zhuǎn)回3% -82% -54%轉(zhuǎn)回轉(zhuǎn)正轉(zhuǎn)正-35% -61% 6% -33%

23H1資料來(lái)源：，公司公告，圖表22：上市銀行計(jì)提力度、不良生成率、撥備覆蓋率情況工商銀行建設(shè)銀行農(nóng)業(yè)銀行中國(guó)銀行交通銀行郵儲(chǔ)銀行中信銀行浦發(fā)銀行民生銀行

計(jì)提力度

不良生成率1.1.

撥備覆蓋率23H1興業(yè)