普標前瞻：全球進入印度時刻-英

Look

For

wardIndia’s

MomentVolume

3

|

August

2023Our

world

is

inthe

midst

ofan

unprecedented

period

oftransition

and

uncertainty,but

one

fact

that

unites

allobservers

is

that

India

facesa

defining

opportunity

tocapitalize

on

this

moment.Economically

and

politically,there

are

few

global

issuesthat

can

be

solved

without

the

cooperation

of

India,afact

that

is

highlighted

by

the

country’s

agenda

for

itspresidency

of

the

G20

in2023.As

inour

previous

Look

Forward

reports,

our

analysts

have

leveraged

their

deep

sector

andgeographic

knowledge

as

well

as

our

data

and

insights

to

takea

deep

dive

intoa

specificsubject.

This

time,

we

look

at

the

opportunities,

risks

and

potential

for

India

to

strengthen

itsclaim

tobea

true

global

superpower

inthe

next

10

years.We

hope

this

research

will

help

our

customers

around

the

world

understand

one

of

the

mostdynamic

and

fast-changing

countries

on

Earth.

From

energy

transition

tothe

global

economy,agriculture

totransportation,

supply

chains

to

technological

innovation,

India

is

at

the

center

ofit

all.

However,

the

road

ahead

is

far

from

straight,

and

navigating

it

will

require

decision-makingthat

considersa

vast

array

of

potential

scenarios,

both

at

home

and

globally.This

report

has

been

organized

by

the

S&P

Global

Research

Council,

which

is

focused

onthe

key

global

themes

of

energy

security,

climate

and

sustainability,

technology

and

digitaldisruptions,

supply

chains,

capital

markets

and

geopolitical

shocks.

The

foundation

of

thereport

is

the

work

we

do

every

day

todeliver

essential

intelligence

to

our

customers

and

themarket—

on

India

and

on

other

topics

that

matter.CRISIL

is

driven

by

its

mission

of

making

markets

function

better

asIndia’s

foremost

provider

ofratings,

data,

research,

analytics

and

solutions.

This

report

also

shows

the

value

of

being

partof

S&P

Global

as

it

marries

local

expertise

with

global

perspectives

and

leverages

capabilitiesacross

the

organization.AmishMehtaManagingDirector&CEO,

CRISIL2Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023India’s

MomentAs

the

world

finds

itself

inthe

midst

of

disruption,

everyone

is

watching

India.The

country

is

chairing

the

G20

under

the

slogan

“One

Earth,

One

Family,

OneFuture,”

reflecting

how

the

years

ahead

will

be

defined

by

shared

global

challengesincluding

economic

growth,

climate

risk,

the

energy

transition,

trade

relationships,disruptive

technologies

and

pandemics.Countries

across

the

development

and

political

spectrum

are

adopting

pragmatismtonavigate

the

heightened

risks

and

expanded

opportunities

of

the

next

decade.Following

this

trend,

India

will

cooperate

across

spheres

of

mutual

interest

andcompete

where

national

interests

collide.

To

rise

to

this

moment,

India

has

setambitious

targets

for

itself—

both

inthe

domestic

arena

and

on

the

global

stage.Athome,

India’s

realized

and

unrealized

potential

will

continue

to

reflect

the

successes

and

prospects

of

its

diverse

states

andtheir

relationship

with

the

constitutionally

strong

central

government.

The

macro

challenge

inthe

decade

ahead

will

be

toachievesustained

high,

stable

and

inclusive

growth,

which

has

thus

far

been

elusive.On

the

global

stage,

India

hopes

tobea

guiding

force

for

emerging

economies

on

the

journey

towardnet-zero

emissions.Developing

countries

will

be

watching

as

India

tries

tobalance

the

goals

of

achieving

high

growth

and

reducing

the

carbonintensity

of

its

economy.India

will

need

to

adeptly

utilize

both

multilateral

and

bilateral

relationships.

It

will

rely

upon

established

and

diverse

multilateralaffiliations,

such

as

the

Quadrilateral

Framework,

BRICS,

the

G20

and

the

UN

Framework

Convention

on

Climate

Change,

totransition

from

beinga

“balancing

power”

tobecominga

“l(fā)eadingpower.”The

country

will

also

leverage

emergent

bilateral

tradingrelationships,

including

with

the

US

and

Australia

as

well

as

countries

inthe

Middle

East

and

Africa.A

paramount

test

will

be

whether

India

can

become

the

next

big

global

manufacturing

hub,

an

immense

opportunity.

Developinga

strong

logistics

framework

will

be

key

intransforming

India

froma

services-dominated

economy

intoa

manufacturing-dominantone.

Unlocking

labor

market

potential

will

largely

depend

upon

upskilling

workers

and

increasing

female

participation

intheworkforce.

Success

inthese

two

areas

will

shapeIndia’s

ability

to

realize

its

demographic

dividend,

particularly

with

the

populationprojected

to

grow

over

the

next

decade.

A

booming

domestic

digital

market

could

also

fuel

expansion

inIndia’s

high-growth

startupecosystem

inthe

decade

ahead,

especially

infinancial

technology

and

consumer

technology.In

the

automotive

sector,

India

ispoised

for

growth,

building

on

infrastructure,

investment,

innovation

and

inclusiveness.This

edition

of

S&P

Global’s

Look

Forward

Journal

shines

the

spotlight

on

India

and

its

potential

over

the

coming

decade

as

thecountry

contends

with

multiple

overlapping

transitions.

With

the

world

eagerly

watching

India

navigate

multidimensional

changesineconomics,

energy,

logistics,

technology

and

demographics,

the

future

rests

on

the

shoulders

of

its

people.Dr.

Lindsay

NewmanDr.

Atul

AryaExecutive

Director,

Head

of

Geopolitical

Thought

Leadership,S&P

Global

Market

Intelligencelindsay.newman@Chief

Energy

Strategist,S&P

Global

Commodity

InsightsCo-chair,

S&P

Global

Research

Councilatul.arya@Deepa

KumarHead

of

Asia-Pacific

Country

Risk,S&P

Global

Market

Intelligencedeepa.kumar@Paul

GruenwaldGlobal

Chief

Economist,S&P

Global

Ratingspaul.gruenwald@3Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023ContentsThe

S&P

Global

Research

Council

has

identified

trends

and

themes

that

offeropportunities

and

challenges

for

our

company

and

customers.

Each

of

the

articlesbelow

corresponds

toone

of

our

2023

KeyThemes.

Click

hereto

learn

more.FutureofCapital

MarketsSustainability

&ClimateIndia’s

Future:

The

Quest

for

High

andStable

GrowthInterview

with

Dr.

V.Anantha

Nageswaran,

Chief

EconomicAdvisor

to

the

Government

of

India5India’s

Demographic

Dividend:

The

Key

toUnlocking

Its

Global

AmbitionsInterview

with

Dharmendra

Pradhan,

India’s

Minister

ofEducation,

Skill

Development

and

Entrepreneurship1122354657Geopolitical

ShocksBalancing

Energy

Security

and

Energy

TransitionCooperation

and

Competition:

India’sEvolving

Center-State

Dynamics17India’s

Energy

Transition:

More

Energy,Fewer

EmissionsInterview

with

Hardeep

Singh

Puri,

India’s

Minister

ofHousing

and

Urban

Affairs

&

Petroleum

and

Natural

GasTrade,Resources&SupplyChainsTrade,

Resources&SupplyChainsBigger

and

Greener:

The

ChangingLandscape

of

Indian

MobilityInterview

with

Sunita

Narain,

Director

General,Centre

for

Science

and

Environment28‘Make

In

India’

Manufacturing

Push

Hingeson

Logistics

InvestmentsTrade,Resources&SupplyChainsFutureofCapital

MarketsFuture

Farming:

Agriculture’s

Role

in

aMore

Sustainable

India41Unlocking

India’s

Capital

Markets

PotentialDigitalDisruptionSustainability

&ClimateStartups

Riding

Digital

InfrastructureCould

Transform

Indian

Economy52With

Physical

Climate

Risks

Increasing

inIndia,

Adaptation

Strategies

Take

Priority4Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023India’s

Future:The

QuestHighlightsThe

macro

challenge

for

India

inthe

upcoming

decade

is

toturntraditionally

uneven

growth

intoa

high

and

stable

trend.

Givenstructural

differences

with

EastAsian

economies,

India

will

need

tofollow

its

own

unique

path.for

High

andStable

Grow

thCapital

accumulation

willdriveIndia’s

economy

towardthis

desirable

path,

with

thegovernment

and,

increasingly,the

private

sector

investing

ininfrastructure

and

manufacturing.Digital

infrastructure

is

anotherpotential

driver

of

high

growth.Achievinghigh

andsustainablegrowthhasbeenelusivefor

India;

successwillrequire

reapingthedemographicdividend,boostingprivateinvestmentand

increasingcompetitiveness.Success

will

ultimately

dependonIndia’s

ability

to

reap

itsdemographic

dividend;

increaselabor

force

participation,including

upskilling;

boost

privateinvestment,

with

structuralreforms

in

land,

logistics

and

labor;and

increase

competitiveness,driven

by

foreign

directPaul

GruenwaldGlobal

Chief

Economist,

S&P

Global

Ratingspaul.gruenwald@Dharmakirti

JoshiChief

Economist,

CRISILdharmakirti.joshi@investment.

Geopolitics

couldprovide

considerable

tailwinds.Rajiv

BiswasAsia-Pacific

Chief

Economist,

S&P

Global

Market

Intelligencerajiv.biswas@Indiahascomeoutofthepandemicreasonablywell,withGDPgrowthof7.2%

infiscalyear2023(endedMarch2023).

Expansionmaycoolto6%

infiscal2024dueto

aglobalslowdownandthelagged

effect

ofpolicyratehikesbytheReserveBankofIndia,accordingto

S&PGlobal.Evenatthisrate,Indiawillbethefastest-growingeconomyintheG20.The

trillion-dollar

question

is

whether

India

can

sustain

high

growth.

That

is,

can

it

replicatethe

performance

of

the

East

Asian

tigers

over

recent

decades

and

improve

the

prospectsand

opportunities

for

its

large

and

growing

workforce?

Importantly,India’s

economy

ismore

domestically

driven

and

services-orientated

than

the

East

Asian

tigers,

so

its

path

tosuccess

will

have

tobe

different.5Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023Future

of

Capital

MarketsUps

and

Downs

of

Growth

Since

LiberalizationGDPgrowthYOY

(%)1614121086420-2-4-61990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024Fiscal

yearDatacompiledMay31,2023.Sources:NationalStatisticalOffice,GovernmentofIndia;CRISIL.?2023S&PGlobal.Decade-Ahead

Forecastlabor,

the

other

main

factor

of

production.

Increasesinproductivity

will

generate

30%

of

GDP

growth.Our

answer

to

the

sustained

growth

question

isaconditional

“yes.”

We

expect

India

togrow

6.7%

perThe

growth

contribution

from

productivity

will

beyear

from

fiscal

2024

tofiscal

2031,

catapulting

GDP

to

higher

than

inprevious

periods

due

to

the

creation$6.7

trillion

from

$3.4

trillion

infiscal

2023.

Per

capitaGDP

will

rise

toabout

$4,500.of

physical

and

digital

infrastructure

inconjunctionwith

efficiency-enhancing

reforms.

India

will

likelysee

further

efficiency

gains

from

reforms

such

asthe

introduction

of

the

Goods

and

Services

Tax.Further

progress

inimplementing

the

Insolvency

andBankruptcy

Code

would

also

help

to

driveahealthycredit

culture.Capital

accumulation

will

be

the

dominant

driverof

Indian

growth.

Investment

asa

proportion

ofGDP

reacheda10-year

high

of

34%

infiscal

2023.The

government

has

playeda

key

role

inboostinginvestment

by

offering

substantial

support

forinfrastructure

projects

and

by

incentivizingmanufacturing.

We

expect

the

Indian

private

sectortogradually

increase

investments

given

healthycorporate

balance

sheets.Physical

and

digital

infrastructure

enhancements

willsupport

growth.

Physical

infrastructure

is

improvingconnectivity

and

lowering

logistics

costs

for

industries.Digital

infrastructure

will

continue

to

speed

innovation,improve

payment

systems

and

reduce

leakages

fromgovernment

subsidy

transfers.

Moreover,

Indiahasused

its

G20

presidency

tohighlight

its

digital

publicinfrastructure

success

and

toencourage

action

onenhancing

financial

inclusioninother

countries.The

importance

of

capital

is

made

clear

using

growthaccounting.

We

expect

capital

tocontribute

53%

ofIndia’s

6.7%

average

GDP

growth

through

the

endof

the

decade.

That

dwarfs

a

17%

contribution

from6Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023Future

of

Capital

MarketsBalance

of

Manufacturing

and

Services

in

GDP

and

ExportsEven

with

India

recalibrating

toward

manufacturing,

services

will

maintaina

strongrole

inthe

economy.

The

country

needs

tokeepa

sharp

focus

on

both

sectors

aseach

has

opportunities

in

domestic

and

export

markets.

In

manufacturing,

newgrowth

avenues

may

emerge

from

an

accelerating

global

trend

toward

supply

chaindiversification,

the

government’s

Production-Linked

Incentive

(PLI)

schemes

andimproving

physical

infrastructure.

Service

sector

growth

will

be

driven

by

domesticdemand

as

well

as

global

outsourcing.The

Indian

consumer

market

will

more

than

double

by

2031,

surging

to

$5.2

trillionfrom

$2.3

trillion

in2022,

according

toS&P

Global

Market

Intelligence’s

GlobalConsumer

Markets

Service.

This

rapid

expansion

reflectsagrowing

population

andincreasing

household

incomes.

Consumer

spending

on

food

will

rise

to

$1.4

trillionby

2031

from

$615

billion

in2022.

Spending

on

financial

services

will

climb

to$670billion

from

$280

billion.

Higher

per

capita

incomes

will

also

likely

boost

discretionaryspending

in

areas

such

as

entertainment,

communications,

restaurants

and

hotels.Services’

share

of

GDP

will

continue

torise,

along

with

manufacturing.

Gainsfor

services

will

be

fueled

by

exports

ininformation

technology

and

IT-enabledservices,

along

with

domestic

sectors

such

as

retail,

food

services,

trading,finance

and

healthcare.

The

question

is

whether

India

can

generate

employmentand

productivity

growth

from

services

at

levels

similar

to

those

once

achieved

bymanufacturing

countries

in

East

Asia.Services

will

remainIndia’s

export

growth

engine.

The

sector’s

share

of

total

exportshas

already

risen

to

42%

infiscal

2023

from

about

30%

infiscal

2012.

We

expect

thistrend

tocontinue,

reflecting

the

government’s

latest

trade

policy

(2023)

settingatarget

to

boost

overall

exports

to$2

trillion

by

2030.

Rising

comfort

with

remotework

worldwide

and

the

growth

of

global

capability

centers

inIndia

will

stokeservices

exports.Services

To

Remain

India’s

Key

Growth

Engine%shareof

GDPFY

2023FY

2031ManufacturingManufacturingMMaannuuffaaccttuurriinnggO

tthheerr2

55%%20%18%20%18%OOthtehrer28%28%ServicesServices56%Services54%56%Services54%DatacompiledMay24,2023.Sources:CentralStatisticsOffice,GovernmentofIndia;CRISILforecasts.?2023S&PGlobal.7Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023Future

of

Capital

MarketsThe

question

is

whether

India

can

generate

employment

andproductivity

growth

from

services

at

levels

similar

to

those

onceachieved

by

manufacturing

countries

in

East

Asia.Ingredients

for

Decade

of

Macro

SuccessIndia

has

seena

good,

if

uneven,

record

of

growth

over

the

past

three

decades.

Expansion

has

come

infits

andstarts,

and

it

has

generally

been

lower

and

less

sustained

than

inthe

East

Asian

tiger

economies.

The

challengeover

the

next

decade—

and

beyond—

will

be

tocreate

the

conditions

for

sustained

growth.

Achieving

this

will

likelyrequire

structural

reforms

inthree

key

areas.1)

Raise

labor

participation,

especially

among

women,

and

boost

skills.India

is

failing

to

take

full

advantage

of

its

large

and

growing

working-agepopulation.

Upskilling

workers

and

increasing

the

number

of

people

holding

jobswill

boost

growth.

Labor

force

participation

was

just

55.2%

in2022,

and

onlyabout

32.8%

among

women,

according

to

the

government’s

Periodic

LabourForce

Survey.

Some

of

the

attempts

being

made

to

deregulate

labor

markets

atthe

state

level

could

also

improve

participation

and

efficiency.2)

Lift

private

investment

in

manufacturing.India’s

domestic

market

is

the

third

largest

worldwide

inpurchasing

powerparity

terms,

which

provides

opportunities

for

growth

in

private

manufacturing.Expanding

manufacturing

has

beena

long-standing

aspiration

for

the

country.Still,

manufacturing’s

share

of

GDP

has

only

risen

toabout

18%

from

15%

over

thepast

two

decades.

By

contrast,

services’

share

has

leapt

to

55%

from

45%.Manufacturing

has

been

held

back

by

stringent

labor

laws,

subpar

logistics

andpoor

infrastructure.

The

authorities

are

fast-forwarding

infrastructure

and

logisticsdevelopments

ina

bid

toease

bottlenecks.

Labor

laws

and

the

land-acquisitionprocess

are

also

being

gradually

eased.India,

likeagrowing

number

of

economies,

is

using

an

interventionist

industrialpolicy

to

attract

manufacturing

investment.

Its

PLI

schemes

cover

15

sectors,

suchas

electronics,

automobiles,

steel,

renewables

and

pharmaceuticals.3)

Bolster

external

competitiveness

through

FDI.India

has

become

an

increasingly

attractive

location

for

multinationals

acrossa

range

of

industries.

Gross

foreigndirect

investment

(FDI)

inflows

reached

arecord

$84.8

billion

in

fiscal

2022,

according

to

the

Ministry

of

Commerceand

Industry.

FDI

inflows

into

manufacturing

surged

76%

that

year

to

more

than

$21

billion.

Gross

FDI

inflowswere

just

$4.3

billion

infiscal

2004.

Technology-related

FDI

has

become

an

important

source

of

investment.

Thecomputer

software

and

hardware

sector

was

the

largest

recipient

of

FDI

inflows

infiscal

2022.A

massive

domestic

market,

along

with

gradually

improving

global

competitiveness,

is

helping

India

draw

foreigninvestment.

The

country

has

one

of

the

largest

domestic

markets

worldwide,

and

growth

is

poised

tosurpass

mostother

emerging

nations.Growth

inFDI

inflows

over

the

past

decade

has

boostedIndia’s

foreign-exchange

reserves

and

helped

tolower

itsexternal

account

vulnerability.8Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023Future

of

Capital

MarketsIndia

Foreign

Direct

Investments

Have

Surged

Since

2000

(US$B)84.88274.470.9A

massive

domesticmarket,

alongwith

gradually626160.255.646.645.241.9improving

globalcompetitiveness,

ishelping

India

drawforeign

investment.37.73634.834.834.322.89.76.16.1544.32.2DatacompiledMay24,2023.Source:ReserveBankofIndia.?2023S&PGlobal.Looking

Forward:

GeopoliticsGeopolitics

can

potentially

provide

considerabletailwinds

forIndia’s

growth

efforts.

The

country

is

ina

good

geopolitical

position,

which

will

help

it

benefitfrom

supply

chain

diversification

and

reshoring.

Thiswill

likely

bolster

other

growth-enhancing

strengths,particularly

competitiveness.Still,

geopolitical

volatility

can

bea

challenge.

Indiais

pursuinga

pragmatic

approach,

cooperatingand

competing

to

serve

its

national

interest.

Thismeans

it

is

navigating

changing

partnerships

and

anevolving

landscape.

Deglobalization

and

protectionistmeasures

will

also

create

some

headwinds

forexports.

Trade

partnerships

could

help

tomitigatesome

of

these

effects.

Learn

moreRider

in

the

stormSafe

zone

vibesCredit

Ratio

edges

up,

some

headwinds

aheadS&P

Global

keeps

certain

activities

of

its

business

units

separate

from

each

other

in

order

to

preserve

the

independence

and

objectivity

of

their

respective

activities.As

a

result,

certain

business

units

of

S&P

Global

may

have

information

that

is

not

available

to

other

S&P

Global

units.

S&P

Global

has

established

policies

and

proceduresto

maintain

the

confidentiality

of

certain

non-public

information

received

in

connection

with

each

analytical

process.This

article

was

authored

by

a

cross-section

of

representatives

from

S&P

Global

and

in

certain

circumstances

external

guest

authors.

The

views

expressed

are

thoseof

the

authors

and

do

not

necessarily

reflect

the

views

or

positions

of

any

entities

they

represent

and

are

not

necessarily

reflected

in

the

products

and

services

thoseentities

offer.

This

research

is

a

publication

of

S&P

Global

and

does

not

comment

on

current

or

future

credit

ratings

or

credit

rating

methodologies.9Look

Forward

JournalAugust

2023Q&AHigher

education

isa

further

target

for

growing

high-value-added

services.

Least

Developed

Countriesrepresent

the

largest

share

of

incoming

internationalstudents

inIndia

because

of

our

price

competitiveness.However,

India

needs

to

expand

its

higher

educationinstitutions

by

encouraging

competition

andimproving

quality.Dr.

V.

Anantha

NageswaranChief

Economic

Advisor

tothe

Government

of

IndiaWhat

is

India’s

growth

target,

and

how

do

you

planto

achieve

it?Achieving

rapid

growth

inhigh-end

manufacturing

andhigh-value-added

services

requires

an

overarching

andsupportive

ecosystem.

This

means

there

isa

sustainedpace

of

expansion

indigital

infrastructure,

along

withsignificant

upscaling

of

research

and

development

inboththe

public

and

the

private

sector.

It

also

requiresa

skilledand

tech-savvy

workforce.The

Indian

economy,

inreal

terms,

needs

togrow

annuallyat

7%

to

7.5%

until

2030.

On

the

supply

side,

the

shareof

manufacturing

intotal

gross

value

added

has

toincrease

from

16%

at

present

toat

least

25%

of

GDP

atthe

expense

of

agriculture

and

low-value-added

services.On

the

demand

side,

gross

fixed

capital

formation,

orinvestment,

needs

to

increase

from

about

28%

of

GDPtoat

least

35%.

To

fund

the

increasing

investment,

thedomestic

savings

rate

will

need

tobe

about

36%

ofGDP.

Development

of

the

manufacturing

sector

and

thenature

of

demand

will

generate

significant

employmentopportunities,

facilitate

business

opportunitiesand

improve

overall

growth

potential.

This,

inturn,will

reduce

poverty

and

increase

the

equitability

ofincome

distribution.How

can

India

boost

investments?The

investment

rate

(gross

fixed

capital

formation/GDP)needs

to

increase

from

about

29%

to

at

least

35%.

Theprivate

sector,

including

foreign

direct

investment,

mustdrive

up

the

investment

rate

as

the

government

haslimited

fiscal

space.

Key

steps

inachieving

this

includethe

development

of

the

domestic

corporate

bond

market,as

well

as

deploying

well-targeted

fiscal

incentives

toattract

investment.

Government

investments

shouldfocus

on

infrastructure

and

public

goods

that

will

furtherfacilitate

and

stimulate

private-sector

investment.Which

areas

have

high

growth

opportunitiesfor

India?Net

exports

also

need

toimprove

from

about

negative3.7%

of

GDP

to

a

more

balanced

figure.

This

can

be

doneby

creating

export

markets

for

high-end

manufacturingand

high