德國發(fā)展研究所（DIE）：新冠肺炎疫情和對地方政府的政治信任：尼泊爾的例證l

Artide

PoliticalStudies

Association

COVID-19andPoliticalTrustin

LocalGovernments:Evidence

FromNepal

CharlotteFiedlerlD,HugoMarcos-Marne2DandKarinaMross'D

PoliticalStudiesReview

l-18

◎TheAuthor(s)2024

Articlereuseguidelines:/journals-permissionsDOl:10.1177/14789299231220535 /home/psrev

Abstract

TheCOVID-19pandemichasreinvigorateddebatesaboutthedriversofpoliticaltrust.Researchsofarhasmainlyfocusedonnational-levelinstitutions,duringtheearlystagesofthepandemicandusingdatafromestablisheddemocracies.However,howdoesthisrelationshiplooklikeifwepayattentiontosubnationalinstitutionsinnon-consolidateddemocracies,andfurtherawayfromtheinitialCOVID-19outbreak?Tocontributetothislineofresearch,thisarticlefocusesonthelocallevelandexplorestheassociationbetweenindividuals'satisfactionwithCOVID-19performanceandpoliticaltrustinNepal.Forthat,itusesnoveldatacollectedviatelephoneinterviews(N=1400)conductedbetween25Apriland24May2021,duringthesecondwaveofCOVID-19.Ourmainresultsrevealthatsatisfactionwithlocalinstitutions'COVID-relatedperformanceissignificantlyandrobustlyassociatedwithlevelsofpoliticaltrustatthelocallevel.Theassociationholdsevenwhengeographicalandtimespecificationsareadded,trusttowardsnationalinstitutionsorexpectationsaboutlocalgovernmentsareincludedintheanalysisandthedependentvariableisdisaggregatedtodiscardmeasurementbiases.Thestudytherebyprovidesimportantinsightsintotheroleperformanceplaysforinstitutionaltrustbeyondthenationallevelandinanunconsolidateddemocracy.

Keywords

politicaltrust,crises,Nepal,locallevel,COVID-19

Accepted:21November2023

Introduction

Throughouttheworld,governmentshavestruggledwithrespondingtotheCOVID-19pandemic,seeingthemselvesforcedtoimplementunpopularmeasuressuchaslock-downsorsocialdistancing.Asthehealthcrisishadamassiveimpactonpeople'slives

'ResearchProgrammeonTransformationofPolitical(dis-)order,GermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability,Bonn,Germany

2DemocracyResearchUnit,AreaofPoliticalScience,UniversidaddeSalamanca,Salamanca,Spain

Correspondingauthor:

CharlotteFiedler,GermanInstituteofDevelopmentandSustainability,53113Bonn,Germany.Email:charlotte.fiedler@idos-research.de

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andrequiredlarge-scaleandoftendrasticgovernmentmeasures,itoffersanexceptionalopportunitytoinvestigatethelinkbetweengovernmentperformanceandtrust,akeyquestioninpoliticalscienceresearch.Theviruskepttheworldinsuspenseandmanygovernmentmeasuressubstantiallyimpactedonpeople’slives,whichfacilitatedahighawarenessofthesituation,increasinginturntheoddsthatpeoplewillhaveformedanopiniononhowsatisfiedtheyarewiththeresponse(i.e.thatpeopletrulyassesshowgovernmentsperformedinthissituation,ratherthanusingheuristics).

Whilepoliticaltrusthasbeenusedsuccessfullytoexplaincompliancewithanti-coronameasures,theeffectsoftheCOVID-19pandemiconpoliticaltrustarestillunderdiscus-sion(Devineetal.,2021).Thisgrowingfieldhasproducedvaluableinsights,butstudiessofarfocusalmostexclusivelyonthenationallevel,although,inmanycountries,subna-tionalgovernmentunitsplayedanimportantroleindesigningandimplementinggovern-mentresponses(DuttaandFischer,2020;HirschfeldandThielsch,2022).Furthermore,moststudiesanalyselevelsoftrustinWesterndemocraciesfollowingtheearlystagesofthepandemic(seeforexampleBoletal.,2020;Kritzingeretal.,2021;Schraff,2020).

OurstudyusestheCOVIDpandemicasanexceptionalopportunitytocontributetoresearchonpoliticaltrustbyleveragingontherelevanceofgovernmentactionamidthissituationofcrisis.Indoingso,wegobeyondpreviousresearchbylookingat(1)therolethepandemicplayedforpoliticaltrustinlocalgovernments;(2)analysingtherelation-shipduringthesecondwaveofthepandemic,whencitizens’havehadtimetoknowandassessgovernmentperformance;and(3)investigatingthislinkintheemergingdemoc-racyofNepal.

Drawinguponnoveldatafromanoriginalphonesurveyconductedwith1400respond-entsinNepal,ouranalysisshowsthatsatisfactionwithlocalinstitutions’COVID-relatedperformanceissignificantlyandrobustlyassociatedwithhigherlevelsofpoliticaltrustatthelocallevel.Theassociationholdsevenwhengeographicalandtimespecificationsareadded,trusttowardsnationalinstitutionsorexpectationsaboutlocalgovernmentsareincludedintheanalysisandthedependentvariableisdisaggregatedtodiscardmeasure-mentbiases.

Thearticleisstructuredasfollows:aftertheintroduction,wediscussthecurrentstateofresearchandourtheoreticalexpectationsthatwederivefromtheliterature.The‘ResearchDesign’sectionintroducestheresearchdesignincludingcaseselection,datagenerationandmethodologybeforewepresenttheanalysisandresultsinthe‘Results’section.Implicationsandlimitationsofthearticlearediscussedinthefinalsectionofthearticle,payingspecialattentiontohowwedealwithissuesofendogeneityandreversedcausality.

Crises,PerformanceandPoliticalTrustattheLocalLevel

Politicaltrust,broadlydefinedas‘abasicevaluativeorientationtowardthegovernment’(Hetherington,1998:791),iscrucialfordemocraciesinsofarasitaffectsseveralimpor-tantaspectssuchasparticipation,complianceandcooperation(LeviandStoker,2000).Accordingly,itisnotsurprisingthatalargestrandofresearchhasbeenhistoricallydevotedtounderstandingpolitical(dis)trust(see,forexample,CitrinandStoker,2018;ZmerliandvanderMeer,2017).

Researchontheeffectsofnaturaldisastershasprovidedrelevantinsightsintotheperformance–trustrelationshipbysuggestingthatextremeeventscanaltertrustlevelsbothpositivelyandnegatively.HurricaneKatrinain2005intheUnitedStateswasfound

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tohavehadnegativeeffectsontrustinthegovernment(NichollsandPicou,2013),asdidthe2011earthquakeandtsunamiinJapan(UslanerandYamamura,2016),andthe2010Pakistanfloods(AkbarandAldrich,2015).Othershaveidentifieddisasterstoincreasepoliticaltrustatthenationallevel,including,forexample,anearthquakeinChinain2008(Hanetal.,2011),aswellaswildfiresinRussia(Lazarevetal.,2014).Similarly,severalstudiesshowthatgovernments’handlingofnaturaldisasterscanimpactvotingbehaviour(BechtelandHainmueller,2011;HealyandMalhotra,2009),andCarlinetal.(2014)foundthattheChileanearthquakesignificantlyimpactedpublicopiniontowardsdemoc-racy.Thissuggeststhathowgovernmentshandleextremeeventsmightbeimportanttoexplainpoliticaltrust.

TheCOVID-19pandemicprovidesanexceptionalpossibilitytofurtherstudythedynamicssurroundinghowanextremeevent,inthiscase,amajorhealthcrisis,affectspoliticaltrust.Twomajorstrandsofresearchhavedevelopedsofaronpoliticaltrustinthecontextofthepandemic(Devineetal.,2021).Thefirstlooksathowtrustinfluencescompliancewithdiseasecontrolmeasuresandsuggeststhattrustinthenationalgovern-mentisimportanttoexplaincitizens’acceptanceofandcompliancewithsuggestedmeas-ures(see,forexample,BargainandUlugbek,2020;Guglielmietal.,2020;Hanetal.,2021;J?rgensen,2021;Raudeetal.,2020aswellasarecentreviewofthisliteraturebyDevineetal.,2023).Thesecondlooksattheeffectoftheimplementationofmeasuresagainstthepandemic(especiallysocialdistancingandlockdowns)ontrust,andithasprovidedquitesomecomparativeevidencesuggestingthatlevelsofpoliticaltrustincreasedatthebeginningofthepandemicinseveralEuropeancountries(see,forexam-ple,Baekgaardetal.,2020;BelchiorandTeixeira,2021;Boletal.,2020;Esaiassonetal.,2020;Kestil?-Kekkonenetal.,2022;Kritzingeretal.,2021;Schraff,2020;Sibleyetal.,2020;vanderMeeretal.,2023).Whilesomeinterpretthisasacognitiveresponseofindividualspositivelyassessingtheperformanceoftheirgovernments(Esaiassonetal.,2020),othershaveinterpreteditasanemotionalresponsetriggeredbyanxietyanduncer-taintyintimesofcrisis,theso-called‘rallyaroundtheflag’effect(Schraff,2020).Atthesametime,firstcross-countrycomparisonsandlongitudinalanalysessuggestthatthiseffectmaywanerelativelyquicklyovertimeorevenbenegativeforthosehavingsuf-feredpsychologicaldistressduetothepandemic(Daviesetal.,2021;Kim,2022;Satherleyetal.,2022).

IncontrasttopreviousresearchonCOVID-19,whichalmostexclusivelyaimstoexplainchangesintrusttowardsnational-levelgovernment,weareinterestedintheeffectsofthepandemicatthelocallevel.Inmanyfederalsystems,thelocalgovernmentallevelhadwide-rangingcompetenciesinthehandlingofthepandemic(DuttaandFischer,2020;HirschfeldandThielsch,2022).Nevertheless,thelocallevelhasnotreceivedmuchattentionsofar.Wewereonlyabletoidentifytwostudiesthatexplicitlyaimtoexplaintrustinlocalinstitutionsamidthepandemic.First,Suetal.(2021)studiedperceptionstowardsthelocalgovernmentinChinaduringthebeginningofthepandemic.Basedonanonlinesurveywith1692participants,theyfoundperceivedpreparednesstobeassoci-atedwithrespondentsevaluatingthe‘performanceoflocalauthoritiesindealingwiththeCOVID-19’astrustworthy.However,thestudyalsoleavesimportantquestionsopenandyettobeaddressedbyfutureresearch–includinglonger-termeffects,directlystudyingpoliticaltrustanddoingsoinadecentralized,non-authoritariancontext.Second,HirschfeldandThielsch(2022)analysedtheeffectsofdifferentstrategiesofcrisiscom-munication,basedonanonlinesurveyexperimentwithmanipulatednewspaperarticlesthatwerepresentedto561Germanparticipants.Theydidnotfinddifferent

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communicationstrategiestoaffectwhetherrespondentsacceptedsuggestedbehaviouralmeasures,buttheydidaltertrustinlocalpoliticians–inparticulardenyingthepandemichadunfavourableconsequences.Whiletheirfindingssuggestthathowlocalpoliticianshandlethepandemicimpactsoncitizens’trusttowardsthem,theirstudywasbuiltonfictionalscenarios(includingthemayorsinvolved)andfocusedontheeffectofdifferentcommunicationstrategiesratherthanperformance.Furthermore,whilethetwostudiesholdinterestinginsights,bothwerebasedonvoluntaryonlinesurveysandneitherdirectlyaddressedthequestionofhowlocalgovernments’handlingofthepandemicimpactedontrust.Insum,weconductthetoourknowledgefirstanalysisofhowlocalgovernments’handlingofthepandemicimpactedoncitizens’trusttowardsthem.

Thefactthatinseveralcountrieslevelsoftrustreportedtowardsthelocallevelaresignificantlyhigherthanthosetowardsthenationallevelsuggeststhatthereareimportantdifferencesbetweenthetwo(Mu?oz,2017).AndFitzgeraldandWolak(2016)suggestthatthereareimportantdifferencesinwhatdrivestrustatdifferentlevelsofgovernment.However,researchonpoliticaltrusthasonlyrecentlybeguntotakeacloserlookatthelocallevel(FitzgeraldandWolak,2016;Proszowskaetal.,2021;SteenvoordenandvanderMeer,2021).Crucially,animportantdifferencebetweenthetwolevelsofgovernmentisthatthelocallevelregardsmuchsmallerpoliticalunits,whichareperceivedasconsid-erablycloserbyconstituents(Mu?oz,2017).Thus,wethinktherelationshipbetweenperformanceandtrustmaydifferbetweenthelocalandnationallevelsandwillbepar-ticularlystrongatthelocallevelbecausethelinkbetweencitizensandtheirgovernmentismoredirect–thereisahigherlikelihoodthatcitizensknowtheirelectedrepresenta-tivespersonally,thatcitizensaremoreawareoflocalgovernments’activitiesandhencebetterabletoevaluatetheirperformance.Indeed,existingresearchindicatesthatpeoplecandifferentiatebetweengovernmentlevelswhenassessingtrust(FitzgeraldandWolak,2016)andthattheytransfertheirtrustassessmentsfromthoseinstitutionstheyknowbet-tertomaketrustjudgementsonthoseentitiestheyhavelessknowledgeabout(Theiss-MorseandBarton,2017).Inthisregard,differentstudiessuggestthattrusttowardslocalinstitutionsmaybemoreinfluentialfortrusttowardsnationalinstitutionsthanviceversa,contrarytoperceptionsofthelocallevelassecondorder(Proszowskaetal.,2021;vanAsscheandDierickx,2007).

Thecausalchainsupportingtheassumptionthatthecognitiveassessmentoftheper-formanceofpoliticalinstitutionsinformstrustisbasedonaseriesofconsecutivesteps.First,politicaltrustisatleastinpartrational,totheextenttowhichitisdeterminedbyanevaluationofthegovernment’sperformance(Hardin,1999).Second,individualshavetobeawareofthemeasuresimplementedbygovernments(Hardin,1999).Third,themeas-ureshavetobeconsideredimportantenoughsothattheyaffecttheevaluationofgovern-ments’performance(VanErkelandVanDerMeer,2016).

WebelievethecontexttriggeredbytheCOVID-19pandemicbenefitstheoddsthatindividualsevaluatetheactualperformanceofthegovernment.Weexpectevaluationsofgovernmentmeasurestobeparticularlyrelevantinthiscontextbecausetheloomingthreatofthepandemicrenderedmeasuresimplementedbygovernmentsofthehighestimportanceandultimatelypeople’slivesdependedonthem.Thesuspensionsofpoliticalandcivilrightsfurthermoredirectlyinterferedwithandaffectedpeople’severydaylivessubstantially(Doddsetal.,2020).Furthermore,wecanassumeastrongawarenessaboutgovernmentmeasuresas,amongothers,theconsumptionofpoliticalnewsincreasedinthisperiod(Casero-Ripolles,2020).Whilewecertainlydonotclaimallindividualsweremoreinformedaboutpoliticsorthatallinformationreceivedreflectedgovernments’

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responseinareliablemanner,thesituationdescribedislikelytofavourthatevaluationsofperformancecontributetoexplaininglevelsofpoliticaltrust.Infact,literatureindi-catesthatcrisismanagementisimportanttoexplainlevelsofpoliticaltrust,alsoamidtheCOVID-19crisis,andvariablessuchasthequalityofinformationprovided,thestrengthoftheresponseandtheperceptionoftheusefulnessofmeasureshavebeenfoundtopre-dicthigherlevelsofpoliticaltrustamidthepandemic(see,forexample,CrepazandArikan,2021;Mansoor,2021;OudeGroenigeretal.,2021).Overall,thesefactorsrenderthepandemicanidealshowcasetostudytherelationshipbetweenperformanceandtrustinaclearlydelineateddomainofhighrelevancetopeople’severydaylives.

Thus,buildingontheideathatmultilevelpoliticalsystemsallowfortheexistenceofdistinctresponsestopoliticalchallenges(RozellandWilcox,2020),andconsideringlit-eraturethatsupportsthatindividualsareabletoisolatelevelsofgovernmentandassesstheirperformanceseparately(Proszowskaetal.,2021;SteenvoordenandvanderMeer,2021),weexpectthat:

H1.Individualswhoaremoresatisfiedwithlocalgovernment’sresponsetotheCOVID-19crisiswilldisplayhigherlevelsofpoliticaltrustintolocalinstitutions.

ResearchDesign

CaseSelection:Nepal

NepalconstitutesaninterestingcaseforourresearchontheeffectofsatisfactionwiththeCOVID-19responseonpoliticaltrustforthreemainreasons.

First,Nepalisstillarelativelynewdemocracy,havingexperienceda(second)demo-craticopeningonlyrecently,attheendofitscivilwarin2006.Eversince,Nepalhasbeenstrugglingwithestablishingwell-functioninginstitutionsandpoliticalstability.Politicalcrisesrecurringlytakeplaceatthenationallevel.Thismakesitparticularlyrelevanttoinvestigatehowtrustcanbestrengthenedinsuchanemergingdemocracywheretypically‘legalandpoliticalinstitutionsremainunder-developed,andthequalityofdemocraticgovernanceisstillprecarious’(KatzandLevin,2018:69).Researchfromotherworldregions,forexample,suggeststhatpoliticaltrustislowerandmorevolatileinnewerdemocracies(Marien,2011),andthattheremightbedifferencesregardingwhichfactorsaffectpoliticaltrust(CatterbergandMoreno,2005).

Second,thenewconstitutionofNepal,adoptedin2015,introducedfederalismandlocalelections,strengtheningthelocalgovernmentunits(LGUs)(GovernmentofNepal,2015).Thisinstitutionaldesignallowsustoexploitvariationsingovernmentperfor-manceatthesubnationallevel.LGUsarethelowestofthreegovernmentunitsinNepal–belowthefederalgovernmentsandsevenprovinces–andcomprise753urbanandruralmunicipalities.Theyarefurtherdividedintowards,whicharethesmallestadministrativeunitsinNepal(GovernmentofNepal,2015).Thelocalgovernmentsaredirectlyelectedandresponsibleforbasichealthandsanitationaswellasdisastermanagement,with‘theauthoritytodirectresourcestocounteractimminentthreatsagainstthehealthoftheirinhabitants’(AdhikariandBudhathoki,2020:961).Moreover,duringthepandemic,thecentralgovernmentaskedtheLGUstopreparequarantineandisolationfacilities,whichwerequicklysetup(Thapa,2021).Localgovernmentsalsodisseminatedinformationonthevirus,oversawtesting,recordingandlockdownprovisionsandprovidedfoodreliefamongotheractivities(Bhandarietal.,2020;Thapa,2021).Overall,theLGUshence

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Table1.SelectionCriteriaforSampling.

Provinces

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Compositionofethnicidentities

A

D

B

B

A

C

C

OpenborderwithIndia

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

No

Yes

Populationdensity

Medium

High

High

Low

Medium

Low

Low

Highlyaffectedbycivilwar

x

x

x

x

Remoteness

x

x

x

Region

Mountain/hill/terai

Terai

Mountain/hill

Mountain/hill

Terai/

hill

Mountain/hill

Terai/

hill

Source:Owncompilation.

playedakeyroleduringtheCOVID-19pandemic,makingitworthwhiletoinvestigatewhethertheirperformanceaffectedcitizens’trustinthem.Moreover,thefactthatthelocalgovernmentshaveonlybeenrecentlyestablishedreducestheriskthatpreconcep-tionsinfluencetrustlevels,therebyincreasingtheplausibilityofourassumedrelation-ship,namelythatsatisfactionwithperformanceinfluencestrust,insteadofpreconceivedinstitutiontrustlevelsdrivingperceptionsofperformance.

Finally,Nepalwasstronglyaffectedbythepandemic.WhiletheCOVID-19pandemicwasinitiallycontainedinNepal,partiallyduetothestrictnationwidelockdownimposedfrom24Marchto21July2020(Lamichhaneetal.,2022),itsliftingaswellasborderopenings–inparticulartohighlyaffectedIndia–ledtoincreasingnumbers.Especiallyinmid-April2021,theinfectionnumbersstarklyincreased,mostdramaticallyinthemetro-politanareaofKathmandu,sothat,byAugust2021,Nepalhadbecomeoneofthemostaffecteddevelopingcountriesworldwide(Lamichhaneetal.,2022).Weexpectthissitu-ationwillincreasetherelevanceofthehealthcrisisamongthepopulation,thusfacilitat-ingtheperformance-trustlinkdetailedinthesectionabove.

Data

Westudytheeffectsofthelocalgovernments’COVIDresponsebasedonalarge-Nsurveyconsistingof1400telephoneinterviews,1conductedbetween25Apriland24May2021(duringthesecondwaveofthepandemic).ThetargetgroupofNepaleseadultswasselectedinathree-stepsamplingstrategy.First,wepurposivelyselectedfouroutofthesevenNepaleseprovinces,toincludeareasthatare(A)moreandlesslikelytobeaffectedbythepandemicbasedonpopulationdensityaswellastheirprox-imitywithIndia(whichwasdeeplyaffectedbythepandemicatthemoment),(B)moreandlessremote,(C)populatedbydifferentidentitygroups2aswellas(D)markedbydifferentlevelsofviolenceduringthecivilwar.3Combiningthesecriterialedustoselectprovinces2,3,5and6(seeTable1).

Second,withinthefourprovinces,werandomlyselected68LGUs.Becausetheprov-incesdifferconsiderablyregardingthenumberandtypesofLGUs,wefirstallocatedLGUsproportionallytothenumberofLGUsperprovince(about17%ofthenumberofLGUsin1province).WethenselecteddifferenttypesofLGUs(rural,urbanandmajor

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cities)proportionallytotheshareofthepopulationlivingindifferenttypesofLGUs.Duetoitslargepopulation,Kathmanduwasselectedthreetimes.Finally,withineachLGU,4wardswererandomlychosen(inKathmandu12wereselectedtoaccountforitsdemo-graphicweightinthecountry).

Inthelaststep,randomwalkswereusedtoidentifyhouseholdsandindividualrespond-entsusingthe‘lastbirthday’method.Respondentswereaskedtoprovidephonenumbersforconductingtheinterviewsatalaterstage.BecausesomemountainousareasofNepalareverydifficulttoreachandstrugglewithphoneconnectivity,alimitednumberofLGUsneededtobeexcludedbeforetherandomselection.4Sinceonly7%ofNepal’spopulationlivesinthemountainregion,weconsiderthisjustifiable.

Thesurveyisrepresentativeattheprovinciallevelregardinggender,age,urban/ruralmunicipalitiesandethnicidentitybasedonthe2011nationalpopulationcensus(NepalGovernment,2012).ThehighpenetrationofmobilephonesinNepal(onaverage1.3perperson)allowstoreachmostofthepopulationviaphone(see.np/en/mis-reports/#).QuestionswereaskedinNepali,andinMaithili,whichisthesecondmostwidelyspokenlanguageinNepalandparticularlyprominentintheTerairegioninwhichtwoofourfourselectedprovincesarelocated.

Itisimportanttonotethatsincethephonesurveywasconductedduringthepandemic,ethicalimplicationswerecarefullyconsidered.First,topreventcontributingtothespreadofCOVID-19,interviewswereconductedviatelephoneinsteadofface-to-face.Second,thecollectionofthephonenumbersthroughalistingexercisetookplaceinMarchatatimewheninfectionrateswereverylowandonlyrequiredaveryshortface-to-faceinter-action.Moreover,thesurveyfirmensuredstricthealthmeasurestoprotectinterviewersandrespondentsduringthelistingexercise.Third,pressuretoparticipatewasminimizedbyrestatingatthestartofeachinterviewthatparticipationinthesurveywasvoluntaryandparticipantscouldquitatanytime.Finally,respondentsreceivednoincentivesforparticipation.

Tocapturetrustatthelocallevel(dependentvariable),weusedtheaverageofthreequestionsaskingrespondentsabouttheirtrustlevelsintheward,mayoranddeputymayor(Cronbach’salpha=0.85).Tomeasureourkeyindependentvariable,theperceptionofCOVIDresponse,weusedthefollowingquestion:HowsatisfiedareyouwithhowtheelectedofficialsinthecurrentlocalgovernmenthandledtheCOVID-19pandemicinthepastyear?(Responsesrangingbetween1,verymuch,and4,notmuch;thescalewasinvertedsothathighervaluesrepresenthigherlevelsofsatisfaction).Overall,satisfactionisatamedium-lowlevel,with22%indicatingveryhigh,17%high,45%lowand17%verylowsatisfaction.Thequestiononsatisfactionwiththehandlingofthecrisiswasaskedfirstinthesurvey(thoughnotimmediatelybeforethequestionregardingtrust).Giventheliteratureonquestion-ordereffects,thisshouldincreasethechancesthatper-formanceperceptionsdidinfluenceanswersontrustlevels(SchumanandPresser,1996).5

Wealsoincludeddifferentcontrolsintheanalysistomakesurereportedcoefficientsarenotstatisticalartefactsduetoomittedvariablebias.6Wecontrolledforself-reported‘Interestinpolitics’(measuredona4-pointLikert-typescalefromlowtohigh)andper-ceptionofcorruptionusingaquestionthatasksrespondentstocomparecorruptionunderthecurrentandprevious(appointed)government(1ifrespondentsconsideredcorruptiontohavestayedthesameorbeinghigherthanbeforeand0otherwise).Wealsocontrolledfortrusttowardsnationalgovernment(from1,fully,to4,notatall;scaleinvertedintheanalysissothathighervaluesrepresenthigherlevelsoftrust),socialtrust(Generallyspeaking,wouldyousaythatmostpeoplecanbetrusted?Responsesranging

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from1,trustfully,to4,cannotbetoocareful;scaleinvertedintheanalysis)andincum-bentvoteinthepastlocalelections(identifyingthosewhovotedforthepartyofthemajorineachLGUincludedintheanalysis).Finally,weincludedcontrolsforgender,age,education,ethnicity,rural/urbanlivingareaandpossessionofasmartphone(Theiss-MorseandBarton,2017).

AttheLGUlevel,wecontrolledforethnicfractionalisation,since,similarlytoethnic-ity,thedegreeofethnicfractionalisationmightalsodeterminewhetherpoliciesandinsti-tutionsareperceivedasexclusionaryandhencelessresponsive.Wemeasureethnicfractionalisationbasedonthelatestcensus(2011),usingtheethnicfractionalizationindexsuggestedbyAlesinaetal.(2003).Wealsocontrolledforpotentialeffectsassoci-atedwiththelegaciesofviolencebyusingdataoncasualtiesduringtheC