波士頓咨詢公司（BCG）：印度經(jīng)濟(jì)監(jiān)測2023年12月

。

BCG

0

IndiaEconomicMonitor

DEC2023

Copyright◎2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

0

Copynight◎2023byBostonconsultingGroup.Allnghtsreserved.

Exec.summary:Highfrequencyindicators(monthlyupdate)

InNov'23,selecthighfrequencyindicatorsexhibitedmildgrowthwhilesomeindicatorssawadeclinevs.previousmonth.IIPsawanuptickinOct'23,owingtogrowthinmanufacturingandminingsectors.Cementproductionincreased,whilepowerconsumptionincheddown;steelconsumptionremainedconsistentwithpreviousmonthlevels.AutosectorsawaseasonaldecelerationacrossallsegmentsinNov'23.

MosttradeandinvestmentindicatorsshowedsignsofimprovementinOct-Nov'23.MerchandisetradedeficitnarrowedsharplyinNov'23,attributabletoasharpdeclineinmerchandizeimportsasgoldimportsmoderatedafterasurgeinOct'23duringthefestiveseason.Servicestradesurpluswidened,drivenbyafallinservicesimports.ForexreservesgrewinNov'23,afterdecliningfor3months,whileFDIcontinueditsupwardtrajectoryforthesecondconsecutivemonth.

BFSIindicatorsshowcasedmixedtrends.UPItransactionvaluerose,evenastransactionvolumeslightlydipped,maintainingabovethe11billionmarkforthesecondconsecutivemonth.Aggregatedepositsandcreditremainedconsistentwithpreviousmonthlevels.NSE&BSEtransactionsincreasedsignificantlyby10%MoMinNov'23and23%vs.Nov'22,whileinsurancepremiumfellsubstantially.

Intermsofmacroeconomicindicators,CPlinflationroseto5.6%inNov'23,reversingitsthree-monthdecliningtrendowingtofoodpriceinflationandalowbaseeffect.WPIinflationalsoroseto0.26%drivenbyrisingfoodandmineralprices,turningpositiveafterremainingindeflationaryterritoryfor7months.ManufacturingPMIbouncedbackinNov'23fromeight-monthlowinOct'23,drivenbystrongdemandandsubstantialeasinginpricepressuresforrawmaterials.However,ServicesPMIdroppedtoitslowestvaluein2023,attributabletoaslowdowninnewordersandoutput.GSTcollectionssawamoderationinNov'23,followingasurgeinOct'23attributedtofestivespending.

AnalystforecastsindicateGDPgrowthof6.0-7.0%YoYforFY24,withmostagenciesraisingtheirprojections.

Source:MoHFW,POSOCO,MOSPI,MinistryofCommerce&Industry,RBl,GSTDashboard,CMIE,IRDAl,MinistryofFinance,GSTCouncil,MinistryofRural

Network,NPCl,NETC,MinistryofDevelopment,Analystreports,BCG

Raitways,AAl,JNPT,AlOCD,mFMS,Jointanalysis

PlantCommittee,MinistryofSteel,SIAM,Vahan

Copynight◎2023byBostonconsultingGroup.Allnghtsreserved.

2

Exec.summary:QuarterlyGDPupdateonelcomparsonofpreCovudandpostCovidfigures)

InJul-Sep'23,India'srealGDPgrewby7.6%YoY,outpacingestimatesbyRBlandothereconomists.IndustrysectorshowcasedhighestYoYgrowthof13.2%,followedbyServicesat5.8%andAgricultureat1.2%.Allsub-segmentswithinIndustrygrewsharply,howeverthisgrowthcomesonalowbasedueto-0.6%degrowthinJul-Sep'22quarter.AllGDPcomponentssawgrowth:Grosscapitalformation(GCF),govt.consumptionandimportssurgedby9.9%,12.4%and16.7%respectively,whilepvt.consumptionandexportsalsogrew,butataslowerpaceof3.1%and4.3%.

Post-pandemic,India'seconomyreboundedsignificantly,withmostGDPcomponentsgrowingfasterthaninpre-Covidyears.Privateconsumption,nearly57%ofGDP,grewatarateof7-11%YoY,withaconsumerpreferenceshifttowardstravelanddigitalservices.GrossCapitalFormation(GCF)reacheda10-yearhighof36.2%inGDPsharein2022-23,upfrom33.5%in2019-20,drivenbyincreasedpublicandprivateinvestments.Exportsalsosurgedpost-Covid,owingtoinitiativeslike'MakeinIndia',recording29%YoYgrowthin2021-22andacontinuedgrowthof14%in2022-23;latest2quartersof2023-24showthatexportsremainedconstantat2022-23levels.However,govt.consumptiongrewataslowerpace(~4%avg.YoY)vs.othercategories.

Shiftingtoasectoralperspective-industrysectorexpandedpost-pandemic,markedbyan11.6%YoYgrowthin2021-22andconsistentgrowthsubsequently;servicesexperiencedrobustrecovery,whileagriculturegrewataslowerpaceof3-4%.WithinIndustry,constructionloggedover10%YoYgrowtheachyear,owingtorisingdemandforhousingandsupportivegovernmentpolicies.Manufacturingsectoralsoexpandedin2021-22with11.1%YoYgrowth,underpinnedbyPLIschemes,andpushtowardsproductioninspecificindustriese.g.,pharmaceuticalsandelectronics;whilegrowthslowedin2022-23,thelatesttwoquartersof2023-24exhibitedrobustperformance.

Theservicessectorhasconsistentlygrownover8%since2021-22,outpacingpre-Covidgrowthrates,withtrade,transport,andcommunicationexpandingby14%inboth2021-22and2022-23.Servicesexportsalsoincreased,especiallyinIT,healthcare,andconsultingduetoaglobaltilttowardsremoteworkandoutsourcing.Financialservicesandrealestategrewsteadilybetween4.5-9%,withover16%growthinbankcreditprovidedtoservicessectorsinceJun'22andthehighestfintechadoptionrateat87%,wellabovetheglobalaverageof64%.

Source:MinistryofCommerce&Industry,RBI,MOSPI,CMIE,Analystreports,BCGanalysis

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

3

Vs.

Lastmonth

Nov'23Nov’22YoYOct'23MoM

E-wayBills(Mn)87.5781.008%100.31-13%

JNPTTraffic('000TEUs)517z97473.0010%549.49-6%

RailFreight(MnTons)*129.03118.948%123.544%

AirFreight(KTons)*291.89257.9713%272.657%

Vs.

Lastyear

Logistics

Latestmonth

LatestVs.Vs.

AutomonthLastyearLastmonth

Nov'23Nov’22YoYOct'23MoM

PVSales('000Units)342.15330.004%395.30-13%

TractorSales('000Units)78.9978.001%125.42-37%

2WSales('0000Units)190.16152.0025%218.71-13%

0%

-6%

27%

10%

ServicesImports($Bn)

EVRegistrations('000Units)

13.4013.44

14.32

152.51119.94

139.23

MerchandizeImports($Bn)

54.48

56.00

-3%

65.03

-16%

ServicesExports($Bn)

28.69

26.23

9%

28.70

0%

Trade&Investment

Latestmonth

Vs.

Lastyear

Vs.

Lastmonth

Nov'23

Nov’22

YoY

Oct'23

MoM

33.90

32.00

6%

33.57

1%

MerchandizeExports($Bn)

Mosthighfrequencyindicators(exceptimportsandinsurance)witnessedanuptickvs.2022levelsinOct-Nov'23(1/2)

Growth

Growth

Vs.

Lastmonth

Nov'23

Nov’22

YoY

Oct'23

MoM

144.70

129.60

12%

142.10

2%

3.99

3.80

5%

4.48

-11%

18.72

18.84

-1%

19.26

-3%

11.26

9.60

17%

11.33

-1%

34.74

29.60

17%

31.76

9%

IIP(Index)*

PowerConsumption('000MUs)PetroleumConsumption(MMT)

SteelConsumption(MMT)

CementProduction(MT)*

Vs.

Lastyear

Industry

Latestmonth

Growth

Growth

*DataavailableonlyuptoOct'23ason20thDec'23–hencegrowthcomparisonsareforOctandnotNov.Oct'23datahasbeencomparedwithOct'22&Sep'23datafortheYoY&MoMgrowthcomparisons.

Note:EVregistrationsincl.E-bus,E-car,electric3W,electric2W,electric3Wcargosales,others

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

4

LatestVs.Vs.

MacroeconomicmonthLastyearLastmonth

GSTCollections(INRTn)1.681.4615%1.72-2%

Nov'23Nov’22YoYOct'23MoM

WPI(%)

0.26

CPI(%)

5.6

JanDhanDeposits(INRTn)2.1

1.8

16%

2.1

1%

-3%

-10%

InsurancePremium(INRKCr)

MGNREGAEmp.Provided(HH)

47.1255.00-14%50.63-7%

16.1

14.5

15.0

5%

-1%

FutureExpectationsIndex

120.6115

122.3

Banking,Financial

Services&Insurance

Nov'23Nov’22YoYOct'23MoM

UPIValue(INRTn)17.4011.9046%17.151%

AggregateDeposits(INRTn)*195.61172.7613%197.01-1%

AggregateCredit(INRTn)*154.88129.0020%153.241%

NSE&BSETxns.(INRKCr)1594.181292.7923%1443.5510%

Latestmonth

Vs.

Lastyear

Vs.

Lastmonth

ServicesPMI(Index)

56.9

56.4

1%

58.4

-3%

CurrentSituationIndex

92.2

84

10%

92.2

0%

Sentiment

Latestmonth

Vs.

Lastyear

Vs.

Lastmonth

Nov'23

Nov’22

YoY

Oct'23

MoM

56

55.7

1%

55.5

1%

ManufacturingPMI(Index)

Mosthighfrequencyindicators(exceptimportsandinsurance)witnessedanuptickvs.2022levelsinOct-Nov'23(2/2)

Growth

Growth

Growth

*DataavailableonlyuptoOct'23ason20thDec'23–hencegrowthcomparisonsareforOctandnotNov.Oct'23datahasbeencomparedwithOct'22&Sep'23datafortheYoY&MoMgrowthcomparisons.

Note:EVregistrationsincl.E-bus,E-car,electric3W,electric2W,electric3Wcargosales,others

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

130

IndustrialActivity

5

IIPimprovedinOct'23;Steelremainedconstant,cementproductiongrewwhilepowerconsumptionincheddowninOct-Nov'23

IndexofIndustrialProduction1

IIPsawanuptickinOct'23vs.Sep'23

160

142145

0

CementProduction(MT)

CementproductionimprovedinOct'23,afterfallinginSep'23

45

30

15

0

31.8

34.7

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

SteelConsumption(MMT)2

SteelconsumptionregisteredamarginalfallinNov'23vs.Oct'23

10

0

11.3

9.6

11.3

DailyAveragePowerConsumption('000sMUs)

PowerconsumptionfellinNov'23forthethirdconsecutivemonth

4.5

0.0

4.0

4.5

3.8

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

1.IndexofIndustrialProduction(IIP)showsthegrowthratesindifferentindustrygroups(comprisesofMfg.(78%weightage),Mining(14%),Electricity(8%)

2.Steelconsumptionincl.long&flatsteel,provisionalfiguresforNov'23

Source:PowerSystemOperationCorporation,MinistryofStatistics&ProgrammeImplementation,Dept.forPromotionofIndustry&InternalTrade,JointPlantCommittee,MinistryofCommerceandIndustry,CMIE,BCGanalysis

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Trade&Investment

6

Merchandizetradedeficitnarrowedwhileservicestradesurpluswidened;ForexgrewwhileFDIsurgedinOct-Nov'23

MerchandizeTrade($Bn)

MerchandizetradedeficitnarrowedinNov'23,drivenbyfallinimports

20.6

MerchandizeExportsMerchandizeImports

50

0

34

65

56

54

34

32

DeficitinNov'23

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Servicestrade($Bn)

ServicestradesurpluswidenedinNov'23,drivenbyfallinimports

20

0

13

ServicesExportsServicesImports

2929

26

1314

15.3

SurplusinNov'23

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

ForexReserves($Bn)

ForexreservesincreasedmarginallyinNov'23vs.Oct'23levels

1,000

500

550

587598

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

FDI($Bn)1

FDIrecordedanincreaseinOct'23,reachingitshighestvaluethisyear

7.3

2023:$26.1Bn

2.8

0

1.7

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

-1.7

Oct-23

Note:Nov'23MerchandizeImportandExportnumbers&ServiceImportandExportnumbersareprovisionalasprovidedbytheMinistryofCommerceandIndustry

1.DenotestotalinwardFDItoIndia;PastperioddatamayvaryfromthepreviousversionsoftheEconomicMonitorowingtorestatingofpreviousyears’databytheCMIE/reportingagencies;CalendaryearconsideredforFDI2023&2022values

Note:PastperioddatamayvaryfromthepreviousversionsoftheEconomicMonitorowingtorestatingofpreviousyears’databytheCMIE/reportingagencies

Source:MinistryofCommerce&Industry,CMIE,RBI,PIB

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Feb-22

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

570

30

Logistics

LogisticsindicatorsexhibitedmixedtrendsinOct-Nov'23

7

FreightTraffic

AirfreighttrafficandrailfreighttrafficincreasedinOct'23

AirFreightTraffic(Ktons)

Air

Rail

273

292

258

250

129

124

119

0

E-wayBills(Mn)1

E-waybillvolumefellsharplyinNov'23,afterhittingrecordhighinOct'23

100

0

10088

81

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Passengertraffic(Mn)*

PassengertrafficforraildeclinedinSep'23;remainedconstantforair

AirAirPassengersRailPassengerBookingsRail

60

40

20

0

548591

2530

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-23

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

JNPTContainerTraffic('000TEUs)2

JNPTtrafficrecordedadownswinginNov'23

550

0

549

518

473

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

1.E-WaybillsarerequiredtobegeneratedatthetimeoftransportofgoodsbyeveryregisteredpersonifthevalueoftheconsignmentexceedsINR50,000.

2.TEUreferstoTwenty-footequivalentunitequivalentto20shippingcontainers(20feetlong,8feettall)

*DataavailableonlyuptoSep'23ason2ndJan'24

Source:MinistryofRailways,CMIE,AirportAuthorityofIndia,JawaharlalNehruPortTrust,GSTNetwork,NHAI,NPCI,BCGanalysis

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Auto

8

AutosaleswitnessedadownwardtrajectoryacrossallcategoriesinNov'23vs.Oct'23,howeverremainedhigherthanNov'22levels

Passengervehiclessales(’000units)

PVsalescontractedsharplyinNov'23,afterreachingrecordhighlevelsinOct'23

400

200

0

395

330

342

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Tractorsales(’000units)

TractorsalessawasharpdeclineinNov'23

100

50

0

125

78

79

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Two-wheelersales(’0000units)

2WsalesregisteredadipinNov'23,afterrisingfor3months

400

200

0

219

152

190

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Three-wheelersales(’000units)

3WsalesfellinNov'23vsOct'23levels

150

100

50

0

77

86

102

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Figuresrepresentwholesalenumbers(includingexports).

1.BMW,MercedesandVolvoAutodataisnotavailable

Source:SIAM,CMIE,TMA,Presssearch,BCGanalysis

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Apr-22

Jun-22

Aug-22

Oct-22

Dec-22

Feb-23

Apr-23

Jun-23

Aug-23

Oct-23

BFSI

9

UPIvaluegrewwhilevolumedipped;MutualfundsAUMimprovedwhileInsurancepremiumdecreasedinNov'23

UPI

UPIvaluerosewhiletransactionvolumefellmarginallyinNov'23

15

10

5

0

17.2

17.4

11.2

Value(INRTn)Volumes(Bn)

11.9

11.4

7.3

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Aggregatedeposits&credit(INRTn)

AggregatedepositsandcreditremainedconsistenttoSep'23levelsinOct'23

200

153

155

173197196

0

AggregateDepositsAggregateCredit

MutualFundsAUM(INRTn)

MutualfundsAUMrecordedanuptickinNov'23vs.Oct'23

50

0

4749

40

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

InsurancePremium(INR'000Cr)

LifeinsurancepremiummarginallyfellinNov'23

100

0

5147

55

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

LifeInsurancePremiumNonLifeInsurancePremium

1.MutualfundsAssetsUnderManagement(AUM)representedasrecordedatendofeverymonthshown.MutualFundsAUMincludeinvestmentsfromindividuals(50.5%)&institutions(49.5%);institutionsincludedomesticandforeigninstitutionsandbanks;Provisionalfiguresdatausedforlife&non-lifeinsuranceason19thDec'23

2.Non-LifeInsuranceincludesFire,Marine,Motor,Engineering,Health,CopInsurance,CreditGuarantee,Aviation,PersonnelaccidentandMiscellaneous

Source:DBIE,NPCI,IRDAI,AMFI,GIC,LifeInsuranceCouncilofIndiaBCGanalysis

Copynighto2023byBostonconsultingGroup.Allnghtsreseved

lan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

ZZ-AON

lan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

EZ-AON

an-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Macroeconomic

GSTcollectionsfellmarginally;Fiscaldeficitnarrowed,whileJanDhandepositsandReporateremainedconstantinNov'23

Govt.Receipts&Expenditures(INRTn)

FiscaldeficitfellmarginallyinNov'23vs.Oct'23

■

Nov'23

Govt.Expenditure(INRTn)

Govt.Receipts(INRTn)

FiscalDeficit(INRTn)

Oct'23

2.8

1.7

1.1

Sep'23

4.5

3.9

0.6

2.6

1.6

1.0

JanDhanDeposits(INRTn)

JanDhandepositsremainedconstantinNou'23vs.Oct'23

3

2.12.1

●

1

1.8

1..2

GSTCollections1(INRTn)

GSTcollectionsfellmarginallyinNou'23,afterreachingitssecondhighestmark

RBI'spolicyrates(%)

ReporateremainedatOct'23levelsinNov'23

—ReverseReporate—Base

9.59.6

—●8.7———

●6.3—

5

3.4=

-6.56.5

==3.4●3.4

●

●●

-Repo

Rate

rate

10

1.GSTCollectionsincludeallcomponents:CGST,SGST,IGST,Cess

10

Source:CMIE,MinistryofFinance,GSTCouncil,GSTNetwork,RBl,JanDhanYojanaBCGanalysis

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Macroeconomic

11

WPIinflationturnedpositiveafterremainingindeflationaryzoneforsevenmonths;CPIinflationalsoincreasedinNov'23

WholesalePriceIndex(WPI)1

WPIincreasedinNov'23,drivenbyprimaryarticles(foodproducts)

20

10

0

45

30

15

0

-15

0.3%

6.1%

-0.5%

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

5%

-1%

-5%

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Sub-component(weightage)

PrimaryArticles(23%)Fuel&Power(13%)ManufacturedProducts(64%)

ConsumerPriceIndex(CPI)2

CPIroseinNov'23,afterfallingfor3consecutivemonths

8

6

4

2

0

15

10

5

0

-5

5.9%

5.6%

4.9%

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

4%

8%

4%4%

-1%

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

Food&beverages(46%)

Pan,tobacco&intoxicants(2%) Clothing&footwear(7%)

Housing(10%)

Miscellaneous(28%)

1.WPImeasuresandtracksthechangesinthepriceofgoodsinthestagesbeforetheretaillevel–thatis,goodsthataresoldinbulkandtradedbetweenentitiesorbusinessesinsteadofconsumers.ItiscalculatedasYoYincreaseinpricesofthecommodities;Primaryarticlesincl.food,non-food,minerals,crudepetroleum&naturalgas;Fuel&powerincl.coal&mineraloils

2.CPIisameasurethatexaminestheweightedaverageofpricesofabasketofconsumergoodsandservices,suchastransportation,food,andmedicalcare.ItiscalculatedasYoYincreaseinpricesofthecommodities

Source:MOSPI,CMIE,BCGAnalysis

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

38.2

38.5

37.4

38

36.0

Macroeconomic

12

Overallemploymentrateremainedconstant;MGNREGAworkdemandedandemploymentprovidedsawadeclineinNov'23

CMIEEmploymentrate(%)1

UrbanemploymentfellwhileruralemploymentrateimprovedinNov'23

Employmentstatusindicateswhetheramemberofahouseholdwhois15yearsofageormoreisemployedornotemployedasofthedateofthe

survey

40

37.5

37.5

36

36.4

35.2

34.4

0

OverallEmploymentRate(%)RuralEmploymentRate(%)

UrbanEmploymentRate(%)

MGNREGAEmploymentProgress(HouseholdsinMn)2

BothMGNREGAworkdemandedandemploymentdecreasedinNov'23

40

20

0

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

Nov-23

1818

1615

WorkDemandedEmploymentProvided

19

15

40

20

0

1.CMIE’sConsumerPyramidspanelofhouseholdscontainsover178,677householdsandtheseincludeover522,000memberswhoareover15yearsold

2.MGNREGAreferstoMahatmaGandhiNationalRuralEmploymentGuaranteeAct.Source:CMIEConsumerPyramidssurvey,MinistryofLabor&Employment,MinistryofRuralDevelopment,CMIE,BCGAnalysis

Copynighto2023byBostonconsultingGroup.Allnghtsreseved

Jan-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

Jan-23

Mar-23

May-23

Jul-23

Sep-23

EZ-AON

]an-22

Mar-22

May-22

Jul-22

Sep-22

Nov-22

an-23

Mar-23

May-23

EZ-1n/

Sep-

Nov-23

60

55

50

45

andOverallSpending).DataarebasedonwebreleasesmadesinceMarch2015.Foreachsurveyround,thefinalfiguresasavailableinthelatestwebreleasecoveringthesamehavebeenconsidered.

PMI&Sentiment

ManufacturingPMIsawanuptickwhileServicesPMIrecordedadecline;ConsumerconfidencerecordedaslightdipinNov'23

ManufacturingandservicesPMIIConsumerConfidenceSurvey(RBI)2

ManufacturingPMIimprovedwhileServicesPMIcontinuedtodeclineinNou'23CSIremainedconsistentwhileFElmarginallyfellinNov'23

58.4

56.9

·56.0

55.5

150

ManufacturingPMI

remainedabovethe

globalPMIlevelsof

49.3inNov'23.

Possible

expansion

inthe

sector

Possible

contraction

55.3/

55.1

inthe

sector

—ManufacturingPMI—ServicesPMI

120

zone

115

100

84

80

40下

X

122121

92…92

Pessimism

zone

Optimism

100

CSI:CSIsummarizestheconsumers'

currentperceptionascomparedtoa

yearagobasedongeneraleconomic

situation,employmentscenario,price

level,households'incomeand

spending,asperRBlConsumer

ConfidenceSurvey

—CurrentSituationIndex(CSl)

FEl:FEIreflectsconsumerexpectations

oneyearaheadandiscalculatedbasedonaveragenetresponsesonfuture

perceptionsonvariousfactorssuchaseconomicconditions,income,

spending,pricelevel,asperRBl

ConsumerConfidenceSurvey

—FutureExpectationsIndex(FEl)

2.Samplesize:6,082responsesacross19majorcitiessurveyedduring2ndNovto11thNov,2023;CSI/FEI=100+AverageofNetResponsesof(GeneralEconomicSituation,EmploymentScenario,PriceLevel,Householdincome

isgIcureoftheprevailingdirectionofeconomictrendsinmanufacturingandservicessectors.ThePMIisbasedonamonthlysurveyofsupplychainmanagersacross19industries,

13

Source:IHSMarkit,CMIE,AnalystReports,RBl,BCGanalysis

Copynighto2023byBostonconsultingGroup.Allnghtsreseved

GDPDeepDive

RealGDPgrewby7.6%YoYinJul-Sep'23;Allcomponentsrecordedanuptickvs.lastyear

40

RealGDP(INRTn)

41.7

38.8

36.5

33.5

Jul-Sep’20Jul-Sep'21Jul-Sep'22Jul-Sep'23

14

9.1%

-5.7%

%changevs.

previousyear

GDPComponents

%GDPsharein

Jul-Sep'231

YoY%changevs.

Jul-Sep'22

………

Y

GDP

…

7.6%

C

Pvt.Consumptior

56.8%

3.1%

G

Govt.

Consumption

8.9%

中重重重重重要*E=***===

12.4%

tR-1as2tionvertedfromINRusing2011-12exchangerates(Rs.47.95);Thenumberswould

i.Discrepanciesaccountfor2.8%shareinGDP;2.StatisticalDiscrepancy:takingtheGDPfromtheproductionapproachasproductionapproachandtheexpenditureapproachfollowedforestimation.

Source:CMIE,BCGAnalysis

7.6%

6.2%

M

Imports

X

Gross

Investment

38.6%

Expors

-6.8%

……

9.9%

16.7%

4.3%

differfromestimatesfromWorldBank,IMF,etc.duetodifferenceinthebaseyear

thecontroltotal,givesthemeasureoftheoveralldifferencebetweenthe

Copyright?2023byBostonConsultingGroup.Allrightsreserved.

GDPDeepDive

15

%changevspreviousyear

GCFwitnessedstronggrowthvs.lastyear;Bothprivateandgovt.consumptionalsoimprovedvs.Jul-Sep'22levels

PrivateConsumption

Pvt.ConsumptionimprovedinJul-Sep'23afterfallingfor2consecutivequarters

23.0

21.2

23.7

8.3%

14.2%

3.1%

INRTn

25

24

23

22

0

Jul-Sep’22

Jul-Sep’23

Jul-

Sep’21

GovernmentConsumption

Govt.ConsumptioncontinuedtofallforthesecondconsecutivequarterinJul-Sep'23

INRTn

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.3

0.0

Jul-

Sep’21

11.8%

Jul-Sep’22

Jul-Sep’23

12.4%

-4.1%

3.7

Grosscapitalformation1

GCFrecordedanuptickvs.previousquarter

INRTn

18

16.1

16

14.6

13.8

14

0

Jul-Jul-Jul-

Sep’23

21.5%

Sep’21

Sep’22

6.5%

9.9%

1.Grosscapitalformationismeasuredbyacquisitionofproducedassets(includingpurchasesofsecond-handassets),includingtheproductionofsuchassetsbyproducersfortheirownuse,minusdisposals.Therelevantassetsrelatetoassetsthatareintendedforuseintheproductionofothergoods&servicesforaperiodofmorethanayear

2..TheOBICUSsurveycapturesinformationfromselectedcompaniesinthemanufacturingsectoroninstalledcapacityvis-a-visactualproductio