浙江省高等教育與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平關系的實證分析

浙江省高等教育與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平關系的實證分析摘要教育是促進社會經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的重要動力，同時也是衡量人類文明進步的標志。在當今這個知識經(jīng)濟時代，教育在人類的發(fā)展和國家的繁榮上扮演著愈發(fā)重要的作用。因此高等教育與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展之間的動態(tài)關系成為一個十分重要且值得研究的問題。本文研究了2000-2017年浙江省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展和高等教育水平現(xiàn)狀，并采用主成分分析的方法將多個相關的經(jīng)濟和教育指標進行降維，然后將相應的主成分進行加權并計算得分。再基于浙江省經(jīng)濟和教育綜合得分以及教育經(jīng)費數(shù)據(jù)構建VAR模型，利用協(xié)整分析、脈沖響應函數(shù)對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、高等教育和教育經(jīng)費的長期均衡關系以及動態(tài)關系進行分析。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，浙江省經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、高等教育和教育經(jīng)費之間存在長期均衡關系，并且高等教育對經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的促進作用存在滯后現(xiàn)象，而教育經(jīng)費對高等教育的促進作用迅速，并由此可以對浙江省經(jīng)濟與教育發(fā)展提供相應的建議?！娟P鍵詞】經(jīng)濟發(fā)展高等教育主成分分析VAR模型脈沖響應函數(shù)AbstractEducationisnotonlyanimportantdrivingforcetopromotesocialandeconomicdevelopment,butalsoasymboltomeasuretheprogressofhumancivilization.Intoday'sknowledge-basedeconomyera,educationplaysanincreasinglyimportantroleinhumandevelopmentandnationalprosperity.Therefore,thedynamicrelationshipbetweenhighereducationandeconomicdevelopmenthasbecomeaveryimportantandworthyofstudy.ThispaperstudiesthecurrentsituationofeconomicandeducationaldevelopmentlevelinZhejiangProvincefrom2000to2017,andusesthemethodofprincipalcomponentanalysistoreducethedimensionsofseveralrelatedeconomicandeducationalindicators,andthenweightsthecorrespondingprincipalcomponentsandcalculatesthescores.Then,basedonthecomprehensivescoresofZhejiangprovince'seconomyandeducationandthedataofeducationfunds,theVARmodelisconstructed,andthelong-termequilibriumrelationshipanddynamicrelationshipofeconomicdevelopment,highereducationandeducationfundsareanalyzedbyco-integrationanalysisandimpulseresponsefunction.Thestudyfindsthatthereisalong-termequilibriumrelationshipamongeconomicdevelopment,highereducationandeducationfundsinZhejiangProvince,andthepromotionofhighereducationtoeconomicdevelopmentlagsbehind.Thepromotionofhighereducationfundsisrapid,whichcanprovidecorrespondingsuggestionsforeconomicandeducationaldevelopmentinZhejiangProvince.Keywords:economicdevelopmenteducationallevelprincipalcomponentanalysisVARmodelimpulseresponsefunction目錄TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u一、引言 (附錄2：經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)年份GDP（億元）第一產(chǎn)業(yè)第一產(chǎn)業(yè)比例第二產(chǎn)業(yè)第二產(chǎn)業(yè)比例第三產(chǎn)業(yè)第三產(chǎn)業(yè)比例人均GDP居民消費價格指數(shù)居民總消費水平農(nóng)村居民總消費水平城鎮(zhèn)居民總消費水平城鎮(zhèn)居民可支配收入農(nóng)村居民可支配收入固定資產(chǎn)投資20006141.03630.980.1033273.930.5332236.120.36413416100.050993278802092794254200020016898.34659.780.0963572.880.5182665.680.38614713109.1555136218404104654582260020028003.67685.20.0864090.480.5113227.990.40316978121.1609840128839117164940333020039705.02717.850.0745096.380.5253890.790.40120444138.07033450499071318054314180.38200411648.7814.10.0706250.380.5374584.220.39424352155.381744918117711454660965384.38200513417.68892.830.0677164.750.5345360.100.39927661176.495585439138431629466606138.39200615718.47925.10.0598511.510.5416281.860.40031825199.9110996216158371826573356964.28200718753.73986.020.05310154.250.5417613.460.40637358223.0127307169169862057482657704.90200821462.691095.960.05111567.420.5398799.310.41042166243.4142647881190022272792588550.71200922990.351163.080.05111908.490.5189918.780.43144641273.51586785712120424611100079906.46201027747.651360.560.04914187.360.51112199.740.44051758302.2182741027323655273591130311451.98201132363.381583.040.04916331.270.50514449.070.44659331334.6213461237126856309711307114077.25201234739.131667.880.04817000.090.48916071.160.46363508354.7228451372428259345501455217095.96201337756.581760.340.04718047.520.47817948.720.47568805380.9247711545830101370801749420194.07201440173.031777.180.04419175.060.47719220.790.47873002408.7268851728132186403931937323554.76201542886.491832.910.04319711.670.46021341.910.49877644433.2287121995333359437142112526664.72201647251.361965.180.04221194.610.44924091.570.51084916456.5307432202835152472372286629571.00201751768.261933.920.03722232.080.42927602.260.53392057489.5338512371738730512612495631125.99續(xù)表年份年末常住人口數(shù)年末就業(yè)人數(shù)旅客周轉量貨物周轉量社會消費品零售總額進出口總額農(nóng)村居民人均住房面積城鎮(zhèn)居民人均住房面積農(nóng)村每百戶擁有汽車數(shù)城鎮(zhèn)居民每百戶擁有汽車數(shù)20004501.222726.09606.731199.742553.59278.3446.8519.80.450.520014520.232780.12656.231600.252901.25420.2147.8220.30.520.6720024540.362830.63705.231956.363252.01543.8949.5321.120.561.4420034560.252890.85750.262263.413526.12701.5450.7321.600.792.9820044577.222991.95795.322701.484055.50852.1351.2923.941.333.5220054602.113100.76848.493416.94645.851073.9154.9826.102.918.7120064629.43172.38929.154363.715357.971391.4755.5726.443.1111.0320074659.343405.011010.64701.36271.321768.5657.0634.723.9613.8620084687.853486.531071.334883.467533.302111.0958.5034.334.7019.6520094716.183591.981152.385659.788622.261877.3559.2935.106.223.7220105446.513636.021250.747117.0410387.022535.3358.5335.297.7926.4320115463.003674.111296.258634.8212532.803093.7860.8036.9013.4033.7320125477.003691.241317.589183.3014199.593124.0361.5037.1015.2036.5020135498.003708.731025.108949.5715970.843357.8960.8238.8218.8638.8720145508.003714.151056.999548.0917835.343550.4961.5340.8919.1843.4520155539.003733.651092.539868.9819784.743467.8461.2840.5325.4147.9020165590.003760.001074.999788.7621970.793365.0060.2740.8730.1753.2920175657.003796.001096.0410105.8124308.483779.0060.4341.5133.3555.54教育數(shù)據(jù)年份每萬人中大學生數(shù)本?？普猩鷶?shù)研究生招生數(shù)本?？圃谛Ｉ鷶?shù)研究生在校生數(shù)本?？飘厴I(yè)生數(shù)研究生畢業(yè)生數(shù)專任老師數(shù)研究經(jīng)費師生比學校數(shù)200047.199351641302123759895324771600189813.3311.1735200161.97120195557729307813237372301882221685.0913.238200282.31152470611139314516297484312645259936.5815.1260200399.78173519686348463919269786853514299457.8816.21642004116.2919561780295727592206210312348583576613.3316682005130.4921536295776513072563713305155583840213.9017.6672006141.93237157109967198692712516253187314214315.9917.1682007157.02249749123267779823140918386373874