煙草會(huì)議中歐講稿

25三月2024煙草會(huì)議中歐講稿UnderstandingRivalry:

TheHeartoftheCompetitiveEquation3/25/20242WilliamA.FischerTheNatureofEconomicInquiry ?thefocusofeconomics[fromaWestern,market-orientedperspective]haslargelybeenonhowwellaneconomyallocatesresources,givenpreferencesandtechnologies.RichardR.Nelsonespeciallywherefirmsaretheprincipalallocatingagents3/25/20243WilliamA.FischerTheNatureofthePlayers ?economiststendtoseefirmsasplayersinamulti-actoreconomicgame...RichardR.Nelson3/25/20244WilliamA.FischerTheNatureofRivalry Theessenceofrivalryisastrivingforpotentiallyincompatiblepositions?FredericM.Scherer ?thejockeyingforsharebyfirmswithinamarket.Besanko,Dranove&Shanley3/25/20245WilliamA.FischerWhoarethese揻irms?andwhataretheirroles?

Somefundamentalassumptions搮anentityrunbyagentsofthecapital-owningprincipalswiththesoleobjectiveofmaximizingtheprofitsofthelatter厰RonaldDorethus,in搈odern?marketeconomy,wecanseparatemanagementfromownership...3/25/20246WilliamA.FischerOtherUnderlyingAssumptionsprofits[surpluses]beingseenasasignalofperformanceinamarketafaithinmarketallocationofresourcesincomplexsituationsovergovernmentallocation--becausethecustomerisvotingwiththeirpurchasesthemaximizationoftheoverallsocialwelfarefunctionbytheaccumulationofnumerouspersonaldecisions--thecustomerbeingseenasbeinginthebestpositiontodeterminewhattheywant3/25/20247WilliamA.FischerEstablishingtheArena[Amarketis]thatsetofsuppliersanddemanderswhosetradingestablishesthepriceofagood.GeorgeStigler&RobertSherwinCustomersSuppliersRivalry3/25/20248WilliamA.FischerInsuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.3/25/20249WilliamA.FischerTheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical3/25/202410Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.Inmarketswhereconsumersarepricesensitive,largerfirmscanusetheircostadvantagetogainanappreciableadvantageoversmallerfirms.IntheUS,ithasbeenshownthatfirmsizeispositivelycorrelatedwithprofitability.However,causeandeffectarenotwell-established.Also,largersharesforsome,meanlowersharesforothers.3/25/202411WilliamA.FischerInsuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleThehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.Buteveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.Infact,instudiesintheUS,mid-century,minimumoptimalplant/firmsizeappearedtobesmallrelativetomarketsize[single-digit].3/25/202412WilliamA.FischerTheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical3/25/202413Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleButeveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.OneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing,whichisdifferentthanjustbeingbiggerorsmarter.3/25/202414WilliamA.FischerTheCentralityofScaleEconomiesTheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomies

DynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical3/25/202415Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscaleOneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing.

Yet,learning,especiallywhenbasedonrepetition,comeswiththeriskofrigidityifthefocusistoo-muchonconsistentcost-reduction.3/25/202416WilliamA.FischerTheImportanceofMarketMaturityempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfaculty ?nearlyonehalfoftherevenuesgeneratedbythe11mostsuccessfulfirms?camefrommaturemarkets.However,77percentofrevenuesfor15oftheleastsuccessfulfirmscamefrommaturemarkets.Capon,Farley&Hoenig3/25/202417WilliamA.Fischerbut,marketsarechanging;

theyarenolongerclassicalnorsimple3/25/202418WilliamA.FischerTheHistoryofCompetitionwasmarkedbysuccessiveIndustrialRevolutions3/25/202419WilliamA.FischerTomorrow抯Markets

willbecharacterizedby:*Increasinglydemandingcustomers*Anemergingglobalarena*Anamalgamationofmarketsandresourcepools[EU,NAFTA,etc.]*Theappearanceofadversarialtrade*Neo-Kondratieffiantechnologychanges*Thequickeningoftheproductlife-cycle*Theemergenceoftheknowledge-basedinformationeconomy*Anacceptanceofneworganizationalformats[Alliances,jvs,wofes,etc.]3/25/202420WilliamA.FischerTheDeathofFirms

Adyingcompanydoesnotlead;itfollows.Itislosingmarketshare,itislosingcapabilities,ithasthewrongsetofcompetencies,itisdemoralized,itsactivitieshavelittleimpact.Infact,allarounduswecanobservecompaniesthatareinastateworsethandeath-theyhavejoinedthelivingdead,aware(ornot)thatwhatevertheydomakeslittledifferencetotheirsituation,andyettheyfeelcompelledtokeeponacting,producing,carryingon. Deathismostoftenalongdrawnoutaffair.Evenwithineptmanagement,itstilltakesalongtimetodestryalargecompanywithoncestrong,ifcurrentlyobsoletecapabilities. Deathisnostrangertotheranksofoncepowerfulmanufacturingcompanies.Everyindustryhasitsshareofthedead,aswellastheterminallyillandthewalkingwounded.TomVollmann:3/25/202421WilliamA.FischerDeathSignalsofthenon-competitivestayingleveloffallingbehindthecompetitionriskaversionbureaucracylosingcapabilitieserosionofwhatwereoncedistinctivecompetenciesinternalfocusingofcorporateattentionlimitedknowledgeofthecustomerpanicdecisionstoreduceshort-runcostsnotdevelopingpeople? TomVollmann3/25/202422WilliamA.FischerInHyper-competitiveMarketsSuchasthosecharacterizingglobalmarketsinthelate20thcentury,thatarefilledwith搒urprises?1.theabilitytonavigatefromoneproductgenerationtoanotheristhebasisforsustainedcompetitiveadvantage.ThinkaboutWang!2.greatorganizationsarenecessarytoproducegreatproducts(morethanonce),whilegreatproductsdonotguaranteegreatorganizations.3.揌ighreturnsarenotsustainableinaparticularmarket,buttheprocessofgeneratinghighreturnscanbesustainable.

lastquoteisfrom:Capon,Farley&Hoenig3/25/202423WilliamA.FischerEarlyLessonsfromInSearchofExcellenceExcellentfirmsarecharacterizedby(amongotherthings:BiasforActionClosetotheCustomerAutonomy&EntrepreneurshipFocusSimpleform,LeanstaffPeters&Waterman3/25/202424WilliamA.FischerMorerecentfindingsfromEuropeExcellentEuropeanfirmsarecharacterizedby(amongotherthings):Devolvingleadership(withoutlosingcontrolordirection)Drivingradicalchange(intheentirecorporatesystem,not justinitsparts)ReshapingcultureDividingtorule(winningtherewardsofsmallnesswhile stayingorgrowinglarge)Keepingthecompetitiveedge(inaworldwheretheoldways ofwinningnolongerwork)AchievingconstantrenewalRobertHeller3/25/202425WilliamA.FischerDeterminantsofFinancialPerformancecompetinginrelativelyconcentratedmarketswithhighermarketsharecompetingingrowingmarketshighinvestmentindevelopingnewproducts&serviceshighinvolvementsinmarketsoutsideofUSlowdebtlevelsanentreprenurialatmosphereempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyCapon,Farley&Hoenig3/25/202426WilliamA.FischerComparingHigh&LowPerformersempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyHigh-PerformingHigh-ShareFocusedInnovatorsconcentratecapitalinvestmentingrowinginternationalmarketsgeneratenewproductsfromhighR&DbudgetsarehighlyverticallyintegratedhavelittlediversificationhavelowdebthighlyspecializedintheirorganizationHigh-PerformingFocusedWorldConsumeristsfocuslessinternationallyspendheavilyonadvertisinghavelowdebtdiversificationalmostnonexistentCapon,Farley&Hoenig3/25/202427WilliamA.FischerComparingHigh&LowPerformersempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfacultyLow-PerformingDiversifiedIndenturedIndustrialistsspendlittleonR&DwerefrequentlyinvolvedinmergersconductedunderduressarehighlydiversifiedhavehighdebtonlyaverageoninternationalinvestmentCapon,Farley&Hoenig3/25/202428WilliamA.FischerNavigatingResources&InformationInformationComplexityHighLowResourceScarcityLowHighLawrence&DyerDevelopmentPathsforaTypicalIndustry3/25/202429WilliamA.Fischerthiswillmeanchangingthewaysinwhichwedobusiness3/25/202430WilliamA.FischerDimensionsofTransformationSpeedFastSlowScopeBroadNarrowDoingDifferentThingsDoingtheSameThingsBetterTurnaroundTransformationReengineeringContinuousImprovementSource:TomVollmann3/25/202431WilliamA.Fischerand,changingthebusinesseswedo3/25/202432WilliamA.FischerIndustryRestructuringasValueMigration

MarketValueisameasureofthepowerofabusinessdesigntocreateandcapturevalue.AdrianJ.Slywotzky Customersmakechoicesbasedontheirpriorities.Thosechoicesdeveloppotentialvalueforthebusinessesfromwhichtheybuy.Atanygiventime,thepatternofthosechoicesallocatesvaluetovariousbusinessdesigns.Ascustomers?prioritieschangeandnewdesignspresentcustomerswithnewoptions,theymakenewchoices.Theyreallocatevalue.Thesechangingpriorities,andthewayinwhichtheyinteractwithnewcompetitors?offerings,arewhattrigger,enable,orfacilitatetheValueMigrationprocess.

AdrianJ.Slywotzky

3/25/202433WilliamA.FischerValueMigrationtodayinChina?..ThefirmsthatarewinningintheChinamarketarethosethatcontroltheirvalue-chains,especiallydown-streamfrommanufacturing!Buildingbrandsmakesthedifferenceincompetingonfactorsotherthanprice:brand&customerservicerequiresvalue-chaindiscipline.Nationalbrandsarebeingbuilttoday,asinthepast,byvalue-chaincontrol.3/25/202434WilliamA.FischerinChina,valuemigrationresultsin...Focusingsolelyontransportcostsmayignore75%ofthedistributioncosts.InChina,nearly2/3ofdistributioncostscomesinproductloss&damage,andtheassociatedinventorycosts.Customerservice&accountsreceivablebothbenefitfromvalue-chaincontrol.BusinessChina12/07/983/25/202435WilliamA.FischerIndustryRestructuring&ValueMigrationValueMigrationisnotnew.ValuemigratedawayFord抯verticallyintegrated,single-car-focusedbusinessdesigntowardGM抯price-ladderedbusinessdesigninthe1920s.Itmovedfromgrocerystorechainstosupermarketsinthe1930s,fromfragmentedmerchandiserstonationalcataloguesalesinthe1890s(Sears),andtonationalmerchandisechainsinthe1920s(Searsagain).AdrianJ.Slywotzky TherearealwayswinnersandlosersintheValueMigrationprocess.3/25/202436WilliamA.FischerWeMustRe-etablishtheArena [thereisabigdifferencebetween]definingcompetitorsas搕hosecompaniesthatdothesamethingthatwedo厯[and]definingthem[instead]asthosebusinessdesignsthatcustomerscanchoosefrominsatisfyingtheirpriorities.AdrianJ.Slywotzky[Where]abusinessdesignisthetotalityofhowacompanyselectsitscustomers,d