中國(guó)科技行業(yè)戰(zhàn)略：Figure+01創(chuàng)AI人形機(jī)器人新里程碑星艦試飛進(jìn)步顯著商業(yè)航天未來(lái)可期

中國(guó)科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20241研究報(bào)告ResearchReport18Mar20248中國(guó)科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologFigure01創(chuàng)AI人形機(jī)器人新里程碑，星艦試飛進(jìn)步顯著商業(yè)航天未來(lái)可期Figure01SetsaNewMilestoneinAIHumanoidRobots;StarshipFlightTestShowsSignificantProgress,PromisingFutureforCommercialSpaceTravel姚書橋BarneyYaobarney.sq.yao@王沈昱OscarWang,CFAsy.wang@(PleaseseeAPPENDIX1forEnglishsummary)事件3月14日，OpenAI和初創(chuàng)公司Figure共同發(fā)布Figure01人形機(jī)器人視頻，引發(fā)廣泛關(guān)注，展示了機(jī)器人在廚房中與高級(jí)AI工程師CoreyLynch進(jìn)行互動(dòng)，完成了包括識(shí)別蘋果、碗碟和杯子、按指令收集垃圾等任務(wù)。Figure01利用OpenAI最新的視覺語(yǔ)言模型技術(shù)，融合了生成式AI和神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)學(xué)習(xí)原理，能夠進(jìn)行多任務(wù)處理、識(shí)別環(huán)境并實(shí)時(shí)與用戶交流，標(biāo)志著通用任務(wù)AI人形機(jī)器人技術(shù)的重要進(jìn)展。這一成就僅在OpenAI與Figure宣布合作13天后實(shí)現(xiàn)。同日，SpaceX在星艦基地成功發(fā)射“星艦”火箭，并達(dá)到太空，完成了其第三次關(guān)鍵試飛。這次試飛受到了廣泛歡呼和美國(guó)宇航局的祝賀。雖然結(jié)果并未完全達(dá)到預(yù)期，相較前兩次試射，這次的性能提升顯著，實(shí)現(xiàn)了更遠(yuǎn)的飛行距離和更長(zhǎng)的飛行時(shí)間，并完成了更多測(cè)試任務(wù)，使得SpaceX向其送人上月球和火星的長(zhǎng)期目標(biāo)邁進(jìn)了一步。點(diǎn)評(píng)多任務(wù)處理+人機(jī)實(shí)時(shí)交互，F(xiàn)igure01展現(xiàn)未來(lái)AI人形機(jī)器人新里程碑。Figure01是由OpenAI和初創(chuàng)公司Figure共同開發(fā)的人形機(jī)器人，高5英尺6英寸，重60kg，能承重20kg，續(xù)航5小時(shí)，前進(jìn)速度達(dá)1.2m/秒。這款機(jī)器人展現(xiàn)出了與以往工業(yè)機(jī)器人不同的四大特點(diǎn)：1）具備強(qiáng)大的語(yǔ)義理解能力，能實(shí)時(shí)與人溝通，無(wú)“機(jī)械化延時(shí)”。2）擁有端到端的神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)學(xué)習(xí)能力，能進(jìn)行思考、推理，并能從抽象詞匯推導(dǎo)具體物品。3）能進(jìn)行情感互動(dòng)和反問(wèn)交互，表現(xiàn)出“類人性”。4）具備通用環(huán)境下的多任務(wù)處理能力，能通過(guò)觀察學(xué)習(xí)糾正錯(cuò)誤，識(shí)別周圍環(huán)境物體，并進(jìn)行多任務(wù)處理。這些能力背后是OpenAI最新視覺語(yǔ)言模型與Figure神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)系統(tǒng)的結(jié)合，使Figure01能通過(guò)簡(jiǎn)單觀察學(xué)習(xí)新技能，使用"學(xué)習(xí)型低級(jí)雙臂操作"進(jìn)行精準(zhǔn)控制，以及通過(guò)強(qiáng)化學(xué)習(xí)不斷優(yōu)化任務(wù)執(zhí)行效率。成立兩年估值26億美元，獲科技巨頭們重金投資。Figure成立于2022年，主要由前谷歌工程師組成，旨在開發(fā)能解放人類從危險(xiǎn)和繁重工作的高性能人形機(jī)器人。面對(duì)人形機(jī)器人的巨大市場(chǎng)前景，微軟、英偉達(dá)、OpenAI等行業(yè)巨頭紛紛投資，F(xiàn)igure在B輪融資中籌集了6.75億美元，估值已飆升至26億美元。其中，亞馬遜前CEO貝索斯、微軟和英偉達(dá)等均有重要投資。團(tuán)隊(duì)成員來(lái)自波士頓動(dòng)力、特斯拉等領(lǐng)先企業(yè)，擁有豐富的AI和仿人機(jī)器人研發(fā)經(jīng)驗(yàn)。Figure已與寶馬簽訂首個(gè)商業(yè)協(xié)議，將AI和機(jī)器人技術(shù)融入汽車生產(chǎn)線，并落戶于寶馬的工廠，預(yù)示人形機(jī)器人在工業(yè)應(yīng)用的新時(shí)代即將到來(lái)。公司未來(lái)計(jì)劃與OpenAI聯(lián)手，推進(jìn)人形機(jī)器人技術(shù)革新，將多模態(tài)大模型的能力擴(kuò)展到機(jī)器人的感知、推理和交互上，展現(xiàn)行業(yè)巨大的發(fā)展?jié)摿陀熬??！靶桥灐痹囷w進(jìn)步顯著，載人太空旅行任重道遠(yuǎn)。SpaceX的巨型火箭“星艦”從得州博卡奇卡星際基地成功發(fā)射，進(jìn)行了第三次試飛，盡管前兩次均未成功。這次試飛仍被定性為“測(cè)試”，旨在完成包括兩級(jí)火箭燃燒、有效載荷艙門開關(guān)、燃料轉(zhuǎn)移等多項(xiàng)雄心勃勃的目標(biāo)。盡管超重型火箭在返回途中丟失，星艦的第二級(jí)成功進(jìn)入太空，完成了部分測(cè)試任務(wù)，但在重返大氣層時(shí)與地面失去聯(lián)系，推測(cè)未能成功著陸。SpaceX強(qiáng)調(diào)這些試飛旨在收集數(shù)據(jù)，優(yōu)化設(shè)計(jì)，此次試飛雖然沒有實(shí)現(xiàn)所有目標(biāo)，但比前兩次有所進(jìn)步，為將來(lái)的任務(wù)奠定了基礎(chǔ)。公司重申其多行星生命愿景，繼續(xù)向前推進(jìn)。我們認(rèn)為，星艦項(xiàng)目旨在開發(fā)重復(fù)使用火箭，降低成本，實(shí)現(xiàn)多行星生存愿景。雖然試飛未全符預(yù)期，但也提供了寶貴的改進(jìn)數(shù)據(jù)。SpaceX將繼續(xù)優(yōu)化，積累無(wú)人飛行經(jīng)驗(yàn)，確保未來(lái)載人任務(wù)安全。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)AI賦能機(jī)器人研發(fā)進(jìn)度不及預(yù)期，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，火箭研發(fā)和試射進(jìn)度不及預(yù)期，宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)下行。18Mar20242圖3FigureB輪融資6.75億美元，估值達(dá)26億美元圖5SpaceX起飛瞬間圖6星艦發(fā)射系統(tǒng)中國(guó)科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20243圖7星艦周圍的等離子體圖8星艦即將濺落印度洋中國(guó)科技戰(zhàn)略ChinaTechnologyStrategy18Mar20244APPENDIX1EventsOnMarch14,OpenAIandthestartupFigurejointlyreleasedavideoofthehumanoidrobotFigure01,sparkingwidespreadattention.ThevideoshowcasedinteractionsbetweentherobotandseniorAIengineerCoreyLynchinakitchen,completingtaskssuchasidentifyingapples,bowls,andcups,andcollectingtrashuponinstruction.UtilizingOpenAI'slatestvision-languagemodeltechnology,Figure01integratesgenerativeAIandneuralnetworklearningprinciples,enablingmulti-taskprocessing,environmentalrecognition,andreal-timecommunicationwithusers.Thismarksasignificantadvancementingeneral-purposeAIhumanoidrobottechnology,achievedjust13daysafterOpenAIandFigureannouncedtheircollaboration.Onthesameday,SpaceXsuccessfullylaunchedtheStarshiprocketfromStarbase,reachingspaceandcompletingitsthirdcriticalflighttest.ThisflightwasmetwithwidespreadacclaimandcongratulationsfromNASA.Althoughtheresultsdidnotfullymeetexpectations,comparedtotheprevioustwolaunches,thisflightdemonstratedsignificantimprovementsinperformance,achievinggreaterflightdistanceandlongerflightduration,andcompletingmoretestobjectives.ThisbringsSpaceXonestepclosertoitslong-termgoalsofmannedlunarandMarsmissions.CommentsWithmulti-taskprocessingandreal-timehuman-machineinteraction,Figure01representsanewmilestoneforfutureAIhumanoidrobots.DevelopedjointlybyOpenAIandthestartupFigure,this5-foot-6-inchtall,60kgrobotcancarryaloadof20kg,hasa5-hourbatterylife,andcanmoveataspeedof1.2m/s.Therobotdisplaysfourdistinctivefeaturesunlikepreviousindustrialrobots:1)Itpossessesstrongsemanticunderstandingcapabilities,enablingreal-timecommunicationwithhumanswithout"mechanicaldelays."2)Ithasend-to-endneuralnetworklearningabilities,capableofthinking,reasoning,anddeducingspecificitemsfromabstractterms.3)Itcanengageinemotionalinteractionsandaskcounter-questions,showing"human-like"traits.4)Itiscapableofmulti-taskhandlinginageneralenvironment,learningfromobservationstocorrectmistakes,recognizingsurroundingobjects,andmanagingmultipletaskssimultaneously.ThesecapabilitiesareunderpinnedbytheintegrationofOpenAI'slatestvision-languagemodelandFigure'sneuralnetworksystem,enablingFigure01tolearnnewskillsthroughsimpleobservation,performprecisecontrolwith"learning-basedlow-leveldual-armmanipulation,"andcontinuouslyoptimizetaskexecutionefficiencythroughreinforcementlearning.ValuedatUS$2.6billionjusttwoyearsafteritsestablishment,Figurehasattractedsubstantialinvestmentfromtechgiants.Foundedin2022byformerGoogleengineers,Figureaimstodevelophigh-performancehumanoidrobotscapableoffreeinghumansfromdangerousandlaborioustasks.Facingthehugemarketprospectsofhumanoidrobots,industrygiantslikeMicrosoft,Nvidia,andOpenAIhavemadeinvestments,withFigureraisingUS$675millioninitsSeriesBfundinground,valuingthecompanyatUS$2.6billion.ImportantinvestmentshavebeenmadebyformerAmazonCEOJeffBezos,Microsoft,andNvidia,amongothers.Theteam,withmembersfromleadingcompanieslikeBostonDynamicsandTesla,possessesextensiveexperienceinAIandhumanoidrobotR&D.FigurehassigneditsfirstcommercialagreementwithBMWtointegrateAIandrobotictechnologyintocarproductionlines,markinganewerafortheindustrialapplicationofhumanoidrobots.ThecompanyplanstocollaboratewithOpenAItoadvancehumanoidrobottechnologyinnovation,extendingmultimodallargemodelcapabilitiestorobotperception,reasoning,andinteraction,demonstratingtheindustry'svastdevelopmentpotentialandprofitprospects.TheStarshipflighttestshowssignificantprogress,butthejourneytowardsmannedspacetravelisstilllong.SpaceX'sStarshiprocketsuccessfullylaunchedfromtheBocaChicaStarbaseinTexas,completingitsthirdflighttest,thoughtheprevioustwowereunsuccessful.Classifiedasa"test,"thisflightaimedtoachieveambitiousgoals,includingtwo-stagerocketcombustion,payloadbaydooroperation,andfueltransfer.Althoughthesuperheavyrocketwaslostonitsreturnjourney,Starship'ssecondstagesuccessfullyenteredspaceandcompletedsometestobjectives.However,itlostcontactwiththegrounduponre-enteringtheatmosphere,andit'spresumeditdidnotlandsuccessfully.SpaceXemphasizesthatthesetestflightsareintendedtocollectdataandoptimizedesign.Althoughnotallobjectiveswereachieved,progresswasmadecomparedtothepreviousflights,layingthegroundworkforfuturemissions.Thecompanyreiteratesitsvisionformultiplanetarylife,continuingtomoveforward.WebelievetheStarshipprojectaimstodevelopreusablerockets,reducecosts,andrealizethevisionofmultiplanetarysurvival.Whilethetestflightdidnotfullymeetexpectations,itprovidedvaluabledataforimprovement.SpaceXwillcontinuetooptimize,18Mar20245accumulateunmannedflightexperience,andensurethesafetyoffuturemannedmissions.AI-enabledrobotdevelopmentprogressisnotexpected;marketcompetitionintensifies;rocketdevelopmentandflighttestprogressarenotexpected;economicdownturn.6ii下下 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