從盈利視角看歐美股市新動向 20240828 -華福證券

入：24Q2標(biāo)普500收入增速5.3%，較Q1（4.3%）繼續(xù)提升2）EPS：Q2標(biāo)普500EPS增速11.1%，較24Q1（6.1%）繼續(xù)提升；分行業(yè)事業(yè)、信息技術(shù)和金融的Q2EPS增速領(lǐng)先，材料、工業(yè)和必選消費(fèi)相對靠動，AI板塊的貢獻(xiàn)邊際回落3）ROE：Q2標(biāo)普500的ROE（TTM）期：與Q1相比，Q2標(biāo)普500盈利超預(yù)期家數(shù)占比由80.4%降體仍高于過去10年均值，Q2美股盈利總體好于市場預(yù)期。觀經(jīng)濟(jì)與資本市場展望》—2024.08.19觀經(jīng)濟(jì)與資本市場展望》—2024.08.19分行業(yè)看，生產(chǎn)設(shè)備、公用事業(yè)、通訊和非耐用消費(fèi)品的Q2EPS增領(lǐng)先，其余大部分行業(yè)總體承壓3）ROE：24Q2StoxxEurope600的水平，但明顯落后美股4）市場預(yù)期：24Q2StoxxEurope600盈利超預(yù)期家數(shù)占比由55.5%降至50.3%，略高于過去10年均值（49.3%）。趨向再平衡1）長期看美股前景仍然維持看好態(tài)度：宏觀層面看，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)韌性較強(qiáng)、離衰退仍然較遠(yuǎn)，在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體中保持領(lǐng)先；微觀層面看，美股EPS預(yù)期增速在全球市場中位居前列，盈利端相對強(qiáng)勢有望延續(xù)2）短期上漲動能有限，內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)或趨向再平衡：估值層面，截至8月下旬，美股遠(yuǎn)期估值仍然超過去10年均值，后續(xù)或面臨一定壓力。分行業(yè)看，大部分行業(yè)均值超過近10年中樞水平，醫(yī)藥、信息技術(shù)、必選消費(fèi)等估值分位數(shù)相對偏高。一方面，從PEG視角看，通訊服務(wù)、公用事業(yè)及金融、地產(chǎn)等順周期板塊性價比相對較高，另一方面，在大盤集中度及估值處于歷史偏高水位背景下，中小盤股的配置價值有望持續(xù)凸顯。股2）估值低位+AI占比較低，對穩(wěn)健型投資者而言配置價值較高：從估值視角看，現(xiàn)階段歐股估值處于歷史偏低水位且遠(yuǎn)低于美股，且AI占1誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值請務(wù)必閱讀報(bào)告末頁的重要聲明1誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值 4 4 5 7 8 10 10 10 12 14 14 14 16 19 19 19 21 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 18誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值 19 20 20 20誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值開始明顯反彈，當(dāng)前增速總體偏穩(wěn)健?！獦?biāo)普500:收入增速20%15%10% 產(chǎn)邊際復(fù)蘇，帶動美股中房地產(chǎn)板塊盈利改善，但二季度明顯弱于一季度。材料（-誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值標(biāo)普500:分行業(yè):收入增速24-0624-0323-1223-0923-0623-0322-1222-0922-0622-03標(biāo)普500：4.3%4.2%2.2%4.3%信息技術(shù)2.9%-2.5%-1.8%-3.5%-9.5%-16.3%-28.9%-4.5%48.3%76.2%通訊服務(wù)房地產(chǎn)4.8%20.2%20.2%醫(yī)療健康4.0%4.3%可選消費(fèi)金融4.5%4.1%公用事業(yè)-8.4%-7.2%-5.9%-2.2%必選消費(fèi)2.1%2.5%2.9%2.2%材料-1.5%-1.5%-5.0%-5.0% -12.8% 25.4%美股EPS增速好于收入增速，較24Q180%60%40%20% -20%標(biāo)普500:EPS增速過去10年中位數(shù)誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值標(biāo)普500分行業(yè):EPS增速標(biāo)普500:4.2%3.4%公用事業(yè)20.0%26.6%26.4%49.3%49.3%信息技術(shù)25.8%23.3%3.9%金融7.7%4.7%7.0%可選消費(fèi)25.6%35.8%42.4%60.2%通訊服務(wù)4.3%34.3%45.1%42.2%0.7%0.7%房地產(chǎn)4.3%9.9%7.9%4.5%3.3%23.2%23.2%296.9%258.9%258.9%必選消費(fèi)2.7%4.9%7.4%4.4%20.8%34.3%21.5%7.5%材料46.3%46.3%動，Q1信息技術(shù)和通訊服務(wù)的貢獻(xiàn)邊際回落，通訊服務(wù)下降尤為明顯。而與之業(yè)、材料、必選消費(fèi)的弱勢，與其基本面偏差標(biāo)普500:EPS增速:分行業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)24-0624-0323-1223-0923-0623-0322-1222-0922-0622-03標(biāo)普500:6.1%4.2%-3.2%-0.1%-5.1%3.4%信息技術(shù)3.6%4.8%4.8%2.7%0.7%-2.0%-2.5%-0.5%-0.2%2.6%金融3.1%-2.5%2.9%0.8%-2.2%-2.8%-3.9%-3.8%醫(yī)療健康2.1%-3.9%-2.4%-3.2%-4.5%-2.9%-1.0%-0.3%2.8%可選消費(fèi)2.3%3.0%3.2%2.6%-1.5%0.9%-0.9%-2.3%公用事業(yè)0.5%0.7%0.5%0.4%0.3%-0.6%-0.2%0.0%-0.3%通訊服務(wù)0.4%3.0%3.4%3.1%-0.9%-2.7%-2.3%-1.9%0.1%房地產(chǎn)0.1%0.3%0.2%0.1%0.3%0.1%0.3%0.5%0.3%0.6%0.1%-2.2%-2.6%-4.5%-6.6%3.4%7.2%必選消費(fèi)0.2%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%-0.3%0.1%工業(yè)-0.1%0.3%0.6%2.6%2.1%0.4%材料 -0.2% -0.6% -0.6% -0.6% -1.2% -1.0% -0.9% -0.6%0.6%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值標(biāo)普500:ROE(TTM)2000年以來中位數(shù)標(biāo)普500:凈利潤率(TTM)2000年以來中位數(shù)9%8%7%6%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值板塊ROE邊際提升，能源、醫(yī)藥略有下降。標(biāo)普500：可選消費(fèi)信息技術(shù)必選消費(fèi)工業(yè)通訊服務(wù)醫(yī)療健康材料金融公用事業(yè)房地產(chǎn)標(biāo)普500:分行業(yè):ROE(TTM)24-0624-0323-1223-0923-0623-0322-1222-0922-0622-0332.7%32.1%27.9%26.3%8.0%32.2%31.0%25.7%25.9%8.0%29.8%31.7%25.8%27.7%20.8%8.3%7.2%27.5%31.0%24.6%27.4%25.0%20.8%8.9%8.6%25.7%31.2%22.9%25.4%30.7%23.2%8.5%8.7%25.1%33.5%25.9%23.7%30.4%23.9%20.4%9.7%9.3%20.3%29.6%36.4%24.4%22.5%30.3%24.4%21.7%20.6%28.7%38.8%25.3%21.7%25.4%25.5%21.5%20.9%32.8%39.2%27.6%21.5%20.4%25.0%20.1%30.1%40.7%27.4%20.5%20.4%24.7%20.0%9.4%9.4%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值標(biāo)普500:盈利超預(yù)期家數(shù)占比過去10年中位數(shù)盈利超預(yù)期家數(shù)占比標(biāo)普500：79.1%75.2%79.8%70.0%71.4%75.9%78.3%77.4%74.2%77.4%77.4%金融72.9%65.7%77.1%70.0%62.9%67.1%68.6%68.6%78.6%工業(yè)77.9%71.4%76.6%通訊服務(wù)72.7%63.6%90.9%77.3%36.4%72.7%房地產(chǎn)67.7%64.5%67.7%71.0%77.4%77.4%71.0%77.3%63.6%72.7%72.7%72.7%72.7%90.9%68.2%信息技術(shù)75.9%91.0%90.8%92.3%必選消費(fèi)74.2%79.0%79.0%79.0%73.0%70.3%70.3%材料71.4%77.8%64.3%75.0%71.4%64.3%67.9%78.6%公用事業(yè)71.0%67.7%66.7%71.0%71.0%64.5%61.3%71.0%74.2%可選消費(fèi)68.1%76.9%71.2%73.1%75.0%69.2%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值10StoxxEurope600:收入增速——標(biāo)普500:收入增速股盈利端總體較為疲弱，降息傳導(dǎo)至經(jīng)濟(jì)和企業(yè)盈利仍需時80%60%40%20% -20%——?dú)W洲:Stoxx600:EPS增速美國:標(biāo)普500:EPS增速StoxxEurope600:分行業(yè):EPS增速-10.5%-5.4%-14.2%-12.8%0.3%6.5%28.2%31.7%43.9%43.9%99.6%-18.3%58.6%-26.5%50.6%50.6%-36.3%36.0%-50.3%-11.3%-11.3%公用事業(yè)60.5%-29.3%-29.3%-56.6%-20.7%37.8%-0.7%-102.7%-102.7%30.6%-3.7%-137.0%71.7%-15.5%-14.2%-14.2%-61.5%28.6%-7.0%-8.5%-8.5%-5.8%5.9%3.7%加工工業(yè)28.5%-16.5%-33.7%-74.7%-56.7%-56.9%-43.3%-2.1%74.3%74.3%26.4%2.3%-26.9%-23.4%-22.0%-22.0%-4.3%-16.9%-20.0%-20.0%技術(shù)服務(wù)9.9%-15.9%27.7%63.3%29.2%29.2%-25.6%-16.5%-23.4%-6.5%-6.5%零售貿(mào)易9.8%8.1%24.6%0.9%2.9%6.4%9.9%7.8%3.9%3.7%20.1%-2.9%-26.8%-39.8%-46.5%-55.6%-10.9%-10.9%63.5%239.4%211.1%211.1%-5.2%-17.2%0.4%2.2%37.1%37.1%-32.1%-11.6%31.7%31.7%-12.4%-5.1%-12.1%-19.0%-13.0%-13.0%-16.9%51.2%73.2%-17.3%8.7%4.0%-8.9%39.9%-1.9%7.2%23.0%29.1%29.1%金融-27.5%20.0%-2.2%31.4%67.1%55.2%55.2%21.3%-3.0%8.7%-13.9%-13.9%運(yùn)輸-30.0%-64.8%-47.5%-23.1%-15.8%-32.5%-32.5%445.7%231.6%231.6%-38.9%-21.6%-4.8%-46.2%4.9%32.6%32.6%34.5%-52.7%-38.2%-37.7%-87.6%-42.4%-48.8%-48.8%-55.3%-34.7%-5.1%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值12塊構(gòu)成最主要拖累（-12.7%若剔除金融板塊，歐股盈利增速可能轉(zhuǎn)正。而生產(chǎn)設(shè)StoxxEurope600:EPS增速:分行業(yè)貢獻(xiàn)-10.5%-5.4%-14.2%-12.8%0.3%6.5%28.2%31.7%43.9%43.9%2.7%-1.4%2.3%-1.6%0.3%3.1%-2.4%2.0%-3.4%-1.2%-1.2%公用事業(yè)-0.6%-1.6%-2.9%-0.4%0.0%0.4%-1.6%-1.6%0.8%0.2%0.0%0.2%-0.4%-0.2%-0.1%0.1%0.1%0.5%0.7%-0.1%-2.5%-0.4%-0.4%2.1%0.6%加工工業(yè)0.5%-0.2%-0.8%-1.6%-1.9%-1.6%-1.0%-0.1%0.6%2.0%0.2%0.8%0.9%0.1%0.7%0.6%0.3%3.7%3.7%零售貿(mào)易0.2%0.1%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.4%0.0%0.1%0.2%0.6%技術(shù)服務(wù)0.2%-0.3%0.6%0.8%0.2%0.5%-0.6%-0.4%-0.6%-0.2%0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.1%-0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%-0.1%0.0%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.3%-1.4%0.0%0.9%0.1%0.4%-4.7%-1.3%-0.3%-6.0%-9.2%-12.5%-14.4%-3.2%9.8%24.6%31.5%31.5%運(yùn)輸-1.0%-1.2%-1.6%-1.2%-0.7%-1.0%0.5%3.7%4.6%3.3%3.3%-1.2%-0.9%-1.9%-2.1%-1.6%-2.6%-4.8%-1.6%-0.3%5.0%5.0%-1.5%-0.9%-0.3%-1.9%0.2%0.8%0.7%金融-12.7%-12.7% 6.1% -0.6% 7.2% 4.9%-0.9%-0.9% 2.9%-3.9%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值13——?dú)W洲:Stoxx600:ROE(TTM)美國:標(biāo)普500:ROE(TTM)歐洲:Stoxx600:凈利潤率(TTM)——美國:標(biāo)普500:凈利潤率(TTM)誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值14StoxxEurope600:盈利超預(yù)期占場預(yù)期，2024年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速或由上年的2.5%降至2.3%，仍在2%以上，下行幅度但就業(yè)市場總體看仍偏溫和；貨幣政策上，在5.5%的政策利率下，美聯(lián)儲后續(xù)仍有誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值15G7國家實(shí)際GDP增速(含預(yù)測)2.8%2.6%4.1%4.3%2.0%加拿大加拿大德國2.3%上年的1.2%提升至14.0%，在發(fā)達(dá)市場中僅次于韓國和日導(dǎo)體產(chǎn)業(yè)復(fù)蘇，對TMT板塊帶來提高，另一方面美國內(nèi)需仍然不弱+市場預(yù)儲將開啟降息窗口，對消費(fèi)、金融對內(nèi)需板塊帶來利好。CAPEX2024E9.7%2024E9.7%6.4%0.7%77.3%9.7%2025E9.7%6.2%28.0%2026E2.5%5.3%9.1%7.5%0.8%5.9%-27.1%4.9%0.2%0.2%-12.9%-12.7%-31.2%27.7%-12.6%發(fā)達(dá)市場:加拿大6.6%2.3%4.0%3.6%新興市場:新興市場:泰國6.7%0.1%3.1%誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值16標(biāo)普500:PE(未來12個月)2000年以來中位數(shù) 5來源：Factset、華福證券研究所；截至2可選消費(fèi)（55.4%）等板塊分位數(shù)相對較低。誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值17PE(FY1):24-08PE(FY1):23-12過去10年均值分位數(shù)(過去10年)標(biāo)普500：23.321.989.9%醫(yī)療健康22.621.5100.0%信息技術(shù)33.230.921.499.1%必選消費(fèi)22.620.420.599.1%材料22.220.091.5%金融78.9%工業(yè)23.622.422.278.9%公用事業(yè)70.5%通訊服務(wù)20.720.220.561.3%可選消費(fèi)27.129.531.455.4%房地產(chǎn)45.3%能源33.6%的訴求較大。從美股板塊內(nèi)部看，TMT板塊內(nèi)部信息技術(shù)估值處于歷史需警惕風(fēng)險，而通訊服務(wù)估值性價比較高，受益于AI產(chǎn)業(yè)驅(qū)動，公用事業(yè)同樣具備EPSEPS增速預(yù)期(2024CY)通訊服務(wù)金融通訊服務(wù)金融信息技術(shù)可選消費(fèi)公用事業(yè)房地產(chǎn)oo工業(yè)必選消費(fèi)標(biāo)普500醫(yī)療健康●●●●●.材料能源PE(FY1)誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值18險能力較差，在美聯(lián)儲持續(xù)加息周期中，盈利端受沖擊歷史偏高水位背景下，美股再平衡下中小盤股的配置價值有望持續(xù)凸顯。——EPS增速:標(biāo)普500EPS增速:標(biāo)普中盤400——EPS增速:標(biāo)普小盤60080%60%40%20% ——PE(FY1):標(biāo)普500PE(FY1):標(biāo)普中盤400——PE(FY1):標(biāo)普小盤600誠信專業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn)價值