2023東南亞數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)報(bào)告-124正式版

Reachingnewheights:Navigatingthepathtopro?tablegrowth2Reference

Disclaimere-ConomySEAisamulti-yearresearchTheinformationinthisreportisprovidedonan‘a(chǎn)sis’basis.programmelaunchedbyGoogleandTemasekin2016.Bain&Companyjoinedtheprogrammeasleadresearchpartnerin2019.TheresearchleveragesTemasekinsights,Bainanalysis,GoogleTrends,primaryresearch,expertinterviews,andindustrysourcestoshedlightonthedigitaleconomyinSoutheastAsia(SEA).Theinformationincludedinthisreportissourcedas‘Google,Temasek,andBain,e-ConomySEA2023’,unlessotherwisespeci?ed.ThisdocumentwasproducedbyGoogle,Temasek,Bain,andotherthirdpartiesinvolvedasofthedateofwritingandissubjecttochange.Ithasbeenpreparedsolelyforinformationpurposesoveralimitedperiodoftimetoprovideaperspectiveonthemarket.Itisnotintendedforinvestmentpurposes.All?nancialanalysisisderivedorestimatedbyBainanalysisusingbothnon-Googleproprietaryandpubliclyavailableinformation.Googlehasnotsuppliedanyadditionaldatafor?nancialanalysis,nordoesGoogleendorseany?nancialanalysismadeinthereport.Whereinformationhasbeenobtainedfromthird-partysourcesandproprietaryresearch,thisisclearlyreferencedinthefootnotes.Projectedmarketand?nancialinformation,analyses,andconclusionscontainedinthisreportshouldnotbeconstruedasde?nitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Google,Temasek,Bain,theirrespectivea?liates,oranyotherthirdpartyinvolvedmakenorepresentationorwarranty,eitherexpressorimplied,astotheaccuracyorcompletenessoftheinformationinthereportandshallnotbeliableforanylossarisingfromtheuseofthisreport.38theditionofe-ConomySEAbyGoogle,Temasek,Bain:SoutheastAsia’sdigitaleconomyresearchprogramme20162017201820192020Unlockingthe$200BopportunityinSEAUnprecedentedgrowthforSEA’s$50BinterneteconomySEA’sinterneteconomyhitsanin?ectionpointSwipeupandtotheright:SEA’s$100BinterneteconomyAtfullvelocity:ResilientandracingaheadSEA’sDigitalDecade2021202220232030Roaring‘20s:TheSEADigitalDecadeThroughthewaves,towardsaseaofopportunityReachingnewheights:Navigatingthepathtopro?tablegrowthTowardsasustainabledigitaleconomy4e-ConomySEAresearchmethodologyExpertinterviews2&industrysourcesTemasekinsightsBainanalysisGoogleTrendsPrimaryresearch1WithcontributionsfromNotes:AlldollaramountsareinUSD.Unlessotherwisestated,allmentionsof“SoutheastAsia”or“SEA”inthisreportrefertothesesixmarkets:Indonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietnam.(1)GooglecommissionedKantartorunthee-ConomySEAconsumersurvey.Theresearchwasconductedinmetroandnon-metrocitiesacrossIndonesia,Malaysia,Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,andVietnam.Datacollectionranfrom10/08/2023to01/09/2023viaa25-minuteonlinesurvey.Thesurveywasconductedamongatotalofn=7,881respondentsaged18-64whohadmadeatransactioninatleastoneoftheverticalscoveredwithinaspeci?edperiodoftime.Eachrespondentwasallocatedtoamaximumoftwoverticals,outofeightverticalscovered,basedonleast?llquota.(2)BainandTemasekconductedinterviewsandaquantitativesurveywithSEA-focusedventurecapitalinvestorsfrom06/2023to08/2023.INDONESIAMALAYSIAPHILIPPINES278M

34M117M605MtotalpopulationacrossthecountriesSINGAPORETHAILANDVIETNAM6M72M99M6…and5leadingsectorsinthedigitaleconomyE-commerceTransport&foodOnlinetravelOnlinemediaFinancialservicesMarketplacesDirect-to-consumerGroceriesTransportFooddeliveryFlightsHotelsVacationrentalsAdvertisingGamingVideo-on-demandMusic-on-demandPaymentsLendingInsuranceInvestmentsNotes:E-commercedoesnotincludeinformalcommerceduetothelackofreliabledata.Financialservicesareexcludedfrommarketsizingestimatesduetodi?erencesinunitsofmeasurementcomparedtootherleadingsectors.7Content01020304GrowingagainstglobalheadwindsInvestorsresetexpectationsMonetisationontheriseFinancialservicesatanin?ectionpoint050607EngagingBridgingthedigitalThepathforward:tablegrowthExecutivesummary8SEAhasweatheredglobalmacroeconomicheadwindswithmoreresiliencecomparedtootherregionsaroundtheworld.Grossdomesticproduct(GDP)growthremainsabove4%,whilein?ationhascomedownto3%.Consumercon?denceisstartingtoreboundinH22023a?erfallingtolowerlevelsinH12023.Growingagainstglobalheadwinds01PrivatefundinginSEAhasdeclinedtoitslowestlevelinsixyears,whichisinlinewithglobalshi?stowardshighercostsofcapitalandissuesacrossthefundinglifecycle.ExitsremaintopofmindasSEAfundshavereturnedlesscapitaltoinvestorsthanfundsfocusedonotherregions.Toleavethefundingwinterbehind,SEAwillneedtoproveitsdigitalcompanieshaveaclearpathwaytopro?tability,andinvestorshavedependableexitpathways.Investorsresetexpectations020304Digitalbusinesseshaveshi?edtheirfocustomonetisationinabidtoachievepro?tabilitytargets.In2023,theSEAdigitaleconomyissettodeliver$100Binrevenue,growingat27%CAGRsince2021–1.7Xtherateofgrossmerchandisevalue(GMV)growth.E-commerce,travel,transport,andmediacontributed$70Binrevenue.Remarkably,thefocusonmonetisationhasnotcomeattheexpenseofconsumerengagementandGMVgrowth.GMVisstillexpectedtogrowat11%to$218Bin2023.Travelandtransportareontracktoexceedpre-pandemicheightsin2024,whilee-commerceisshowingresilience.MonetisationontheriseConsumersareadoptingdigital?nancialservices(DFS)atarapidpace.Cashisnolongerking,asdigitalpaymentsnowmakeupmorethan50%oftheregion’stransactions.Highinterestratesaretailwindstodepositsandwealthmanagementbutposechallengestolending.Non-performingloansremainundercontrol.Sustainablebusinessmodelsareemergingamongpure-play?ntechs,whiletraditional?nancialcompaniesareacceleratingtheprocessofdigitalisationtoretainusers.Financialservicesatanin?ectionpointAsbusinessespursueanacceleratedpathtopro?tability,engaginghighvalueusershasbecomecriticaltoachievesustainableuniteconomics.Thetop30%ofSEAspendersaccountformorethan70%ofdigitaleconomyspend–andtheycanbefoundeverywhere.Thisisaccentuatedingaming,travel,andtransport.Inthelongerterm,companieswillneedtoembraceabroadersetofcustomerstocontinuegrowinginasustainablewayandunlocktheregion’sfullmonetisationpotential.Engaginghighvalueusers050607Digitalinclusionhasmadeinroadsintheregionoverthepastyears.Connectivityhasincreasedbyasmuchas3Xsince2015insomeruralareas.Yet,asplayersfocusonmonetisation,consumersoutsideofmetrocitiesarefacingawideningdigitaleconomicdivide.Ecosysteminvestmentsarerequiredtobridgethegap,whichwillinturnsupportlong-termdigitaleconomicgrowth.BridgingthedigitaleconomicdivideThereremainssigni?cantheadroominSEA:favourabledemographics,growingwealth,andanincreasinglyurbanisedpopulationsetthestageforfuturedigitaleconomicgrowth.Competitionisalsoexpectedtobecomemorerationalinthepursuitofsustainedpro?tability.SEA’sdigitaleconomycanreachitsfullpotentialgivenbroadeneddigitaleconomyparticipation,theemergenceofnascentsectors,physicalinfrastructureinvestments,andpolicyandregulationattheregionallevel.Thepathforward:pro?tablegrowth9Growingagainstglobalheadwinds10SEAhasweatheredglobalmacroeconomicheadwindswithmoreresiliencecomparedtootherregionsaroundtheworld.11SEAhasstood?rmagainstglobalmacroeconomicheadwindsGDPgrowthhasstayedrelativelystableIn?ationcalmsfrompost-pandemicpeaksInterestrateincreaseshavebeenrelativelymoderateChangeininterestrates1(%points,Jan‘22-Jul‘23)SEAGDP(YoY%)SEAin?ation(YoY%)4.7%USfedfundsrateincrease4.35.7%4.7%20254.5%20244.0%3.14.2%3.03.6%3.2%20243.1%1.82.0%2020-3.7%2021202220231.31.1.%0.520202021202220232025Notes:DataisasofJuly2023.(1)SORAusedasaproxyforSingaporeinterestrates.Sources:UnitedNationsPopulationDivision;S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;relevantcentralbanksandmonetaryauthorities;Bainanalysis12SEA’seconomyseesencouragingupswings,especiallyintravel+36%

+32%

80%

+40%increaseinregionalincreaseinrecoveryinoutboundincreaseintravelFDIin?ow1regionalexports1passengervolume1demand1Notes:FDI=foreigndirectinvestment.(1)Comparedto2019.Sources:UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment;Euromonitor;InternationalAirTransportAssociation;DestinationInsightswithGoogle;Bainanalysis13SEA’sGDPgrowthisforecasttokeepupwiththeworld’sfastest-growingeconomiesRealGDPgrowthrate(YoY%)202120222023202420259.28.57.36.66.26.15.95.75.75.04.74.6

4.64.54.24.03.53.02.32.11.71.51.30.70.5IndiaChinaSEAEUUSANote:DataisasofOctober2023,andincludesfull-yearestimatesfor2023andforecastsfor2024and2025.Sources:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;Bainanalysis14In?ationremainsundercontrolcomparedtootherregionsIn?ationrate(YoY%)2021202220238.98.06.76.16.05.14.74.74.13.62.72.02.00.90.5IndiaChinaSEAEUUSANote:DataisasofOctober2023,andincludesfull-yearestimatesfor2023.Sources:S&PGlobalMarketIntelligence;Bainanalysis15Consumercon?denceintheeconomyhasbeguntorecoverinQ32023acrossmostoftheregionConsumerCon?denceBarometerWeusedsearchinterestdatatomeasureconsumercon?denceintheeconomy.Factorsinclude:Q1'20Q3'20Q1'21Q3'21Q1'22Q3'22Q1'23Q3'23Q1'20Q3'20Q1'21Q3'21Q1'22Q3'22Q1'23Q3'23●

Economicuncertaintysearches(e.g.in?ation,recession)●

Commoditypricesearches(e.g.gasprices)●

Jobopportunitysearches(e.g.newjobopenings)●

Jobconcernsearches(e.g.unemployment)Q1'20Q3'20Q1'21Q3'21Q1'22Q3'22Q1'23Q3'23Q1'20Q3'20Q1'21Q3'21Q1'22Q3'22Q1'23Q3'23●

Financeandinvestmentsearches(e.g.investingstrategies,mutualfundreturns)Ahigherscoreindicatesthatconsumersaremorecon?dentandhaveamorepositiveoutlookontheeconomy.Alowerscoreindicatesthatconsumersaremoreworriedandhaveamorenegativeoutlookontheeconomy.Q1'20Q3'20Q1'21Q3'21Q1'22Q3'22Q1'23Q3'23Q1'20Q3'20Q1'21Q3'21Q1'22Q3'22Q1'23Q3'23Note:DataisasofAugust2023.Databasedonathree-monthrollingwindow.Sources:TheConsumerCon?denceBarometercombinessearchinterestdatabasedonmultipleeconomicindicationsearches,bothpositiveandnegative,toestimateconsumers’con?denceinacountry’seconomicoutlook16Investorsresetexpectations17PrivatefundinginSEAhasdeclinedtoitslowestlevelinsixyears,whichisinlinewithglobalshi?stowardshighercostsofcapitalandissuesacrossthefundinglifecycle.ExitsremaintopofmindasSEAfundshavereturnedlesscapitalthanfundsfocusedonotherregions.18Privatefundingrevertsto2017levelsFundingtakesadipa?errecordhighsin2021Thepaceoffundinginrecentyearshasbeenextraordinary:in2016,weexpected$40B–$50BofinvestmentsthatwouldtakeGMVto$200Bin2025.By2022,theregionhadraiseddoublethatamount–$101B–asithitthe$200BGMVmilestonethreeyearsaheadofschedule.Privatefundingvalue($B)Average10-yearUSTreasuryRateDealcountShi?towardsself-su?ciency3.6%3.5%Comparedtopasthighs,thepaceoffundinghasslowedtoasix-yearlow–alsoduetohighercostsofcapital.Asinvestorsrecalibratetheirexpectations,digitalplayersarelookingtoextendtheirrunwaysbyspendingmoree?ciently,infavourofhealthierlong-termgrowth.3.0%222.4%132.3%12271.4%12141.2%98Dealenvironmentremainscompetitive542016201720182019202020212022H1’22H2’22H1’23Ashigh-qualityinvestmentsarerareinthisenvironment,thecompetitionfor811858142715461853269720801233845564high-qualitydealsremainsrobust.Note:Privatefundingvaluecoversdigitaleconomy-relatedsectors,andexcludespublic?nancingdealse.g.PIPE,IPO,ICO.Source:Bainanalysis19Fundingdeclinescutacrossallstages;late-stagedeal?owslowedthemostPrivatefundingvalue($B)DealcountCAGREarlystage:Seed&SeriesAGrowthstage:SeriesB&CLatestage:SeriesD&E+-68%-76%-77%3.63.64.53.24.32.11.71.21.41.10.80.4H1’234H2’21H1’22H2’22H1’23H2’21H1’22H2’22H1’23H2’21H1’22H2’2210849144953581011004651171811Note:Privatefundingvalueexcludespublic?nancingdealse.g.PIPE,IPO,ICO,andundisclosed,growth,secondaryorprivateequitydeals.Source:Bainanalysis20Declinesfrom2021–2022peakshavebeencommonacrossSEAPrivatefundingvalue($B)CAGR-52%0.6-79%0.2-87%1.89.11.11.00.90.90.85.14.40.50.53.23.30.40.40.30.40.20.2’19’20’21’22H1’22H2’22H1’23’19’20’21’22H1’22H2’22H1’23’19’20’21’22H1’22H2’22H1’23-66%1.0-63%12121.32.6-24%770.6550.50.90.930.30.10.70.70.20.60.2’19’20’21’22H1’22H2’22H1’23’19’20’21’22H1’22H2’22H1’23’19’20’21’22H1’22H2’22H1’23Source:Bainanalysis21Agrowingportionofdealactivityisfunneledintonascentsectors,signallingthatinvestorsarediversifyingPrivatefundingvalue($B)272133%Nascentsectors142%TravelDigitalmediaFood&transportE-commerceDFS131212825%41%34%445%56%2019202020212022H12022H22022H12023Dealcount15461853269720801233845564Note:(1)NascentsectorsincludecategoriesthatarestillrelativelynascentinSEAsuchasenterprise,healthtech,edtech,deeptech/AI,Web3/crypto,property,automotive,etc.Source:Bainanalysis22Investorsarefacingdi?cultiesacrossallstagesoftheinvestmentlifecycle,withexitsanddistributionsbeingtopofmindInvestorshavebeengrapplingwithdimprospectsoverthepast12monthsInvestorshavebeenincreasinglyurgedtorealiseexits,deliverreturns,anddistributecapitalFundsthatstartedinthemid-2010sarenowinthelatestagesofharvesting,pu?ingpressureondeliveringreturns87%ofinvestors?ndthatfundraisinghasbecomemorechallenging64%88%ofinvestorshaveseenadropindiligenceandtop-of-funnelactivity50%ofinvestorspartiallymetordidnotmeettheirdivestmenttargetsofinvestorsfeeltheyarefacingamoredi?cultexitenvironmentRealisingreturnsanddistributionsareakeyfundraisingchallengeSources:BainSEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q32023;Bainanalysis23FundsfacechallengesinreturningcapitaltoinvestorsSEAhaslaggedotherregionsininvestorreturnsSEA-focusedfundshaveseensigni?cantlylowerdistributionstopaid-incapitalcomparedtofundsthatarefocusedonotherregions,suggestingdi?cultyinrealisingreturnsforinvestors.Mediandistributiontopaid-incapital(Xofpaid-incapital)18-10years2013-2015Fundage5-7yearsDistributionslimitedbyscarceIPOsFundvintage2016-2018Distributionshavebeenconcentratedonafewbig-namelistings,primarilyonUSexchanges.Butthishasbeena?ectedbyinterestratehikesthathavesubsequentlyreducedIPOappetiteandthenumberoflistingsonregionalexchanges.1.3X1.0XSecondarieshaveseenvaluationimpact0.7X0.6X0.5X0.4X0.4XWhilevaluationdiscountsforsecondarysaleshavewidened,thevaluationsofqualitycompanies’secondarieshavebeencomparativelymoreresilient.0.1X0.2X0.04XUSEuropeIndiaChinaSEAUSEuropeIndiaChinaSEANote:(1)IncludesVCandgrowthfundsonly.Source:Bainanalysis24DrypowderisstillontherisedespiteinvestorsbecomingincreasinglycautiousamidstlimitedDrypowderatyear-end($B)opportunities15.714.112.410.28.57.1201720182019202020212022Notes:(1)FundsincludebothPEandVCfunds.Drypowderreferstotheamountofcapitalthathasbeencommi?edminustheamountthathasbeencalledforinvestment.Source:Preqin25Toexitthisfundingwinter,digitalbusinessesinSEAneedtoprovethatqualitydealswithdependableexitpathwaysarereadilyavailableRealisticentryvaluationsDigitalcompaniesshouldproverationalvaluationmultiplesthatarebuiltonbusinessandindustryfundamentals,andthatre?ectthecurrentmacroenvironmentProvenmonetisationmodelRealisablemonetisationpathwaysandsustainableuniteconomicshavebecomekeyrequisitesforSEA’sdigitalbusinessesClearpathtopro?tabilityDependableexitpathwaysEverybusinessneedstolayoutaclear,realisticpathtopro?tabilityandlong-term?nancialsustainabilityAssurancethatthereareclearandfeasibleexitpathwaysfordigitalbusinesses,whichcouldbeintheformofamoreconducivecapitalmarketenvironmentandsupportiveregulationsSource:BainSEAVentureCapitalInvestorsSurvey,Q3202326Monetisationontherise27Digitalbusinesseshaveshi?edtheirfocustomonetisationinabidtoachievepro?tabilitytargets,andarestartingtoseesuccess.Atthesametime,GMVcontinuesitsupwardtrajectory.28Thedigitaleconomyhas?ourishedontopofwidespreadadoption;monetisationisnowaccelerating,withvisibleprogressSEAinternetusers(%)1SEAinternetconsumers(%)1SEAdigitaleconomyGMV($)SEAdigitaleconomyrevenue($)SEAdigitaleconomypro?t($)750%–60%218B100B2023202320232023Users:WidespreadinternetpenetrationacrossSEAConsumers:Highactivation,increasingparticipationGMV:ResilientdespiteheadwindsRevenue:MonetisationcontinuesatfullspeedPro?t:Businessesinchclosertopro?tabilityAsinternetcoverageexpanded,thenumberofinternetusersgrewcommensurately.Engagingtheseusersandturningthemintoactiveconsumersofdigitalproductsandservicesarekeytodigitaleconomicexpansion.ConsumersacrossSEAhavereadilyadopteddigitalproductsandservicesasinternetcoverageexpanded,butthereisstillheadroomtogrowandexpanddepthofparticipationinthedigitaleconomy,beyondmetrocitiesandhighvalueusers.Thepandemicspurredincredibleadoptionoverthepastfewyears,especiallyinkeysectorslikeDigitalbusinesseshavesuccessfullymonetisedtheSEAdigitaleconomy,whetherthroughtheircorebusinessmodeloradjacencies.RevenuegrowthshouldcontinueoutpacingGMVgrowthasbusinessesexpandtheirtop-line.Thefocusonpro?tabilityisintensifyingacrossalldigitaleconomysectors.Businessesaretakingstepstoimprovetheire?ciency,exploringnewproductivitydrivers(suchasAI)toachievesustainableandpro?tablelong-termgrowth.e-commerce.Despiteglobalheadwinds,growthremainsstrong,thougha?entionisshi?ingtowardsmonetisationandpro?tability.Note:(1)Referstopercentageoftotaladultpopulation.Sources:Google,Temasek,andBain,e-ConomySEA2016-2022;Bainanalysis29Asthefocusshi?sfromgrowthatallcosttopro?tablegrowth,newprioritiesareatplayBusinessobjectivesCoremetricsSustainablebalanceofuseracquisitionwithmonetisinginteractionsRevenueandEBITDAinadditiontoacquisition-focusedmetrics(e.g.monthlyactiveusers)CostoptimisationCompetitivefocusImproveduniteconomicsthroughoptimisedspending,insteadofpurerevenuegrowthMorerationalcompetition,insteadofa‘winusersatanycost’mindsetNote:EBITDA=earningsbeforeinterest,taxes,depreciation,andamortisation.30Theregionhasreachedakeymilestone:$100Binrevenueacrossalldigitaleconomysectors–or8Xoverthepast8yearsSEAdigitaleconomytotalrevenue($B)8X10081Digital?nancialservices15970Coredigitaleconomysectors57~12442016202120222023Note:(1)Includesrevenuefrompayments(averagemerchantdiscountrates),lending(grossinterestrates),insurance(annualisedpremiumequivalent,APE,forlifeandgrosswri?enpremiums,andGWP,fornon-lifeinsurance),andwealth(mutualfundsmanagementfeesandpla?ormfees).Source:Bainanalysis31Digitalbusinessesderiverevenuethroughdirectsales,orbyfunctioningasanintermediarypla?ormTwokeyrevenuemodelsinthedigitaleconomyDigital?nancialservicesFooddeliveryE-commerceTravelTransportOnlinemediaDirectrevenuemodelSellerConsumerRevenueisthepriceofthegoodsorservicessold,ortheunderlyinginstrumentBchannelsAirline/hotels’ownchannelsFchannelsOnline/gamepublishersInsurance,etc.Thirdpartypla?ormmodelSellerPla?ormConsumerRevenuetothesethirdparty(3P)intermediarypla?ormsisaportionofthepriceofgoodsorservicessold,ortheunderlyinginstrumentE-commercemarketplacesOTApla?ormsFooddeliverypla?ormsTransportpla?ormsMediapla?ormsPayments,etc.Note:OTA=onlinetravelagency.32SEAconsistentlydeliversonbothGMVgrowthandrevenuegrowth–aremarkablefeatDouble-digitGMVandrevenuegrowthGMV($B)Revenue($B)BothGMVandrevenuehavegrownatimpressivedouble-digitratesforthepasttwoyears,suggestingthatmonetisationandoverallmarketgrowtharenotatodds.16%16%CAGROnlinemediaFood&transportTravel27%2953411%23%RevenuegrowthoutpacedGMVgrowth31218267020%1954330%Asmonetisationacceleratedaroundtheregionoverthepasttwoyears,revenueissettogrowat1.7XtherateofGMV.Thisfocusonmonetisationhasbeendrivenbythepursuitof?nancialsustainabilityandbe?eruniteconomicsacrosssectors.572424161E-commerce262318302244242198142822118691391301311223182021202220232025202120222023Notes:GMV=grossmerchandisevalue;CAGR=compoundannualgrowthrate.Source:BainanalysisE-commerceTravelFooddeliveryTransportOnlinemedia33Thereisatrade-o?betweengrowthandpro?tabilityasnewentrantsgaingroundMonetisationhasincreasedwithfurtherheadroomRevenuehasgrownfasterthanGMVasplayersincreasetakeratesandexpandtoadjacentrevenuestreams(e.g.logistics,advertising,etc.).Thistrendisexpectedtocontinueintothemediumterm.GMV1($B)Revenue2($B)Despitethefocusonmonetisation,GMVcontinuestogrowGroceryCAGRGMVcontinuestogrowevenasplayersreducediscountsandpromotionstoincreasenettakerates.MarketleadershaveexpressedNon-grocery22%willingnesstobeginre-investingpro?tstodefendtheirmarketshare.ThisisexpectedtodrivehighGMVgrowthinthemediumterm.16%24%186246%NewentrantsdrivingsomeGMVgrowth16%139Newentrantshavegrownrapidly,gainingmarketshareatanincrediblerate.Theyhavealsodrivensomeoverallmarketgrowththroughshi?inginformalandunorganisedformsofe-commercetowardsorganisede-commercepla?orms.13018112172815231621812011397Grocerye-commercehaspotentialupsideThegrocerycategoryshowspotentialforgrowthgiventhesizableheadroomandthee?ortsputintoovercominglogisticalandeconomicchallenges.2021202220232025202120222023Notes:(1)Grossmerchandisevalue:totalvalueofphysicalgoodssoldtoconsumersthroughorganisede-commercepla?orms,includingthevalueofgoodssoldbymerchantsfromtheirowninventories(?rst-party)orgoodssoldthroughthepla?ormbyindependentsellers(third-party);(2)Revenuespans?rst-partyandthird-partysales.E-commerceTravelFooddeliveryTransportOnlinemedia34Marketplacerevenueshaveacceleratedthroughhighercommissions,adsales,andlogisticsfeesCommissionrateshavereachedChina’shigh-watermarksMarketleadershavespearheaded~3.0%to~4.5%commissionhikesinrecentyears,almostreachingChina’shighbenchmarks.Givenregionalpurchasingpower,commissionsareunlikelytoincreasefurther.E-commercemarketplacepla?orm1revenuegrowthdrivers(%ofgrowth)Adjacentrevenuestreamsserveasalong-termgrowthengineSellingadditionalservices(e.g.advertising,deliveryservices,insurance,etc.)hasbecomeanincreasinglycommonwaytobumpuprevenueperorderandoverallrevenuegrowth.Advertising,speci?callyseller-fundedin-appadstoraisebrandawarenessanddriveorders,hasprovensuccessfulandisexpectedtobecoretofuturemonetisation.43%100%28%ExpandingwidthanddepthofuserbaseiskeytocontinuedgrowthPlayersneedtolookbeyondthehighvaluesegmentandincreaseboththesizeandpurchasefrequencyoftheircustomerbasetodrivelong-termgrowthandpro?tability.AI-drivenrecommendationscanhelpincreasecustomerbasketsize,whichcandriveimproveduniteconomicsandeconomiesofscale.29%GMVimpactCommissionsimpactAdjacentrevenueimpact2021–2023revenuegrowthNotes:AI=arti?cialintelligence.(1)Alsoreferredtoasthird-partypla?orms,oronlinepla?ormswheresellerscansetupstorestosellgoodstobuyers.Sources:WeAreSocial;BainanalysisE-commerceTravelFooddeliveryTransportOnlinemedia35Searchinterestsurpassespre-pandemiclevels,pointingtocontinuedgrowthascapacityincreasesSEAtraveldemandrecovery(vs2019levels)Outbound-AirInbound-AccommodationDomestic-AirandaccommodationDemandisaleadingindicatorforbookingsInterestininternationaltravelhasrevivedtosurpassinterestindomestictraveloverthepastyear,suggestingthatthereislatentdemandwaitingtobeunlockedasinternational?ightcapacityopensup.2019Jan2020Jan2021Jan2022Jan2023Notes:Searchinterestisusedasaproxyfortraveldemand;SEAaverageisasimpleaverageacrossthesixmarkets.Source:DestinationInsightswithGoogleE-commerceTravelFooddeliveryTransportOnlinemedia36Flightpassengervolumeisprogressingtowardspre-pandemiclevelsDomestic?ightshaverecoveredinsomecountriesInternational?ightshaverecoveredby~80%DomesticRPK(indexedtoJan2020)InternationalRPK(indexedtoJan2020)150%VietnamThailand100%100%50%0%PhilippinesMalaysia50%0%IndonesiaSingaporeJan2020Jan2021Jan2022Jan2023Jan2020Jan2021Jan2022Jan2023Note:RPK=revenuepassengerkilometres,ameasureoftotaldistancetravelledbypassengerswhoproviderevenue.Source:IATAE-commerceTravelFooddeliveryTransportOnlinemedia37Fulltravelrecoveryisexpectedin2024,withfurtherheadroomforgrowthTravelexpectedtofullyrecoverby2024GMV1($B)Revenue2($B)Despitefervent‘rev