adb-新興氫能技術(shù)和全球發(fā)展動能-EMERGING HYDROGEN ENERGY TECHNOLOGY AND GLOBAL MOMENTUM

EMERGINGHYDROGEN

ENERGYTECHNOLOGY

ANDGLOBALMOMENTUM

DanMillisonandKee-YungNam

NO.96

September2024

ADBSUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENTWORKINGPAPERSERIES

ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK

ADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeries

EmergingHydrogenEnergyTechnologyandGlobalMomentum

DanMillisonandKee-YungNamNo.96|September2024

TheADBSustainableDevelopmentWorking

PaperSeriespresentsdatafromongoing

researchtoencourageexchangeofideas

andelicitcommentandfeedbackabout

developmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.

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orthegovernmentstheyrepresent.

DanMillisonisaconsultantfortheEnergySectorOffice,supportingAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)programs

forinnovativetechnologyandbusinessmodelsinenergysectorandclimatechangeoperations.Hehasmorethan35yearsofprofessionalexperience,includingmorethan20yearsworkingoncleanenergyandclimatechange

financing.

Kee-YungNamisprincipalenergyeconomistinthe

EnergySectorGroup(SG-ENE),SectorsGroupof

ADB,whereheconceptualizesdevelopmentofADB’s

energysectorstrategiesandpolicies,andadvisesin

theformulationoftheenergysectorlendingandnon-

lendingpipelineofprojects.Heisalsoresponsiblefor

theEnergySectorTrustFundsandundertakesanalysis

andassessmentofkeyenergysectorissuesparticularlyincleanenergytechnologies.

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ISSN2789-0619(print),2789-0627(PDF)PublicationStockNo.WPS240403-2

DOI:

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TheADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeriespresentsdata,information,and/orfindingsfromongoing

researchandstudiestoencourageexchangeofideasandelicitcommentandfeedbackaboutdevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Sincepapersinthisseriesareintendedforquickandeasydissemination,thecontentmayormaynotbefullyeditedandmaylaterbemodifiedforfinalpublication.

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Notes:

Inthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars.

ADBrecognizes“Brunei”as“BruneiDarussalam,”“China”asthePeople’sRepublicofChina,“Korea”and“Korean”astheand/orfromtheRepublicofKorea.

CONTENTS

TABLESANDFIGURES

iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

v

ABBREVIATIONS

vi

WEIGHTSANDMEASURES

vii

ABSTRACT

viii

I.BACKGROUNDANDCONTEXT

1

II.THEGREENHYDROGENVALUECHAIN

2

A.AdvantagesofGreenHydrogen

5

B.Production

7

C.TransmissionandDistribution

12

D.HydrogenStorage

15

E.EnvironmentalConsiderations

20

F.EndUses—TheMeritOrder

20

III.OVERVIEWOFDEVELOPMENTSINGREENHYDROGEN

26

A.BusinessandCommercialOperations

26

B.StandardsandRegulationsBarriers

27

C.IncentivesforIncubatingIndustryGrowth

29

IV.CHALLENGESOFTRANSITIONINGTOGREENHYDROGEN

31

A.CostofProductionandFinancialViability

31

B.RegulationsandStandards

35

C.RoadMapsandTargets

36

V.OPPORTUNITIESFORDEVELOPINGMEMBERCOUNTRIES

39

A.NationalEnergyTransitionRoadMaps,Strategies,andTargets

39

B.OverviewofOpportunitiesinDevelopingMemberCountries

40

C.FuturePolicyConsiderations

44

D.HydrogenTradingMarketPotential

45

VI.THEWAYFORWARD

48

REFERENCES

53

TABLESANDFIGURES

TABLES

1CharacteristicsofExistingElectrolyzerTechnologies

2MeritOrderandPotentialADBSupport

3NotableGreenHydrogenDevelopment

4RegulatoryandStandardsBarriers

5TechnicalandTrainingBarriers

6HydrogenIncentivesinEuropeandNorthAmerica

7HydrogenIncentivesinAsiaandAustralia

8KeyTechnicalFactorsAffectingFinancialViabilityofaHydrogenProjectandRecommendedActions

9KeyPolicyandOtherFactorsAffectingFinancialViabilityandRecommendedActions

10HydrogenTargetsandGovernmentInitiativesinEurope

11HydrogenTargetsandGovernmentInitiativesinAsiaandAustralia

12ADBHydrogenActivitiesasofMay2023

FIGURES

1HydrogenValueChain

2GlobalCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyEnergySector

3ElectrolyzerInstalledCapacity,2020-2050

4HydrogenSupplyChain

5HydrogenCycle

6ASimplifiedOverviewofanElectrolyzer

7LevelizedCostofHydrogeninEuropeBeforeandAftertheRussianInvasionofUkraine

8CostFactorsandLevelizedCostsofProduction

9KeyElementsofGreenHydrogenProductionProjects

10PolyethylenePipelinesUsedtoDistributeNaturalGas

11DibenzyltolueneLiquidOrganicHydrogenCarrierProcess

12HydrogenMetalHydrideCylinders

13LiquifiedHydrogenTank

14AnExampleofSaltCavern

15Ammonia-FueledTractor

16ElectrolyzersasGridManagementTools

17GreenOxygenStoredandUsed,IncreasingHydrogenProjectValue

18GreenHydrogenMeritOrder

19HydrogenSteelmaking

20KazakhstanSolar+WindtoHydrogenPotential

21IndonesiaTangguhHydrogenProductionScenario

22OffshoreRenewableEnergytoHydrogenPotentialinSelectADBDevelopingMemberCountries

23OffshoreRenewableEnergyMonetizationwith“Power-to-X”BusinessModel

24HydrogenCorridorsAcrossAllContinents

25TransitionfromNoncompetitivetoTradingHub

26ADB–ISAFrameworktoAssessEcosystemReadinessinCountriestoAdoptHydrogen

27ServicesofVirtualGlobalCenterofExcellenceforGreenHydrogen

8

24

27

28

28

30

30

32

34

37

38

49

3

3

4

5

6

7

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

17

18

19

21

23

41

42

43

44

46

47

50

51

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Thispaperbenefitedfrominputs,insights,andfeedbackfromcolleaguesacrossADB,includingpeerreviewersKaoruOginoandPradeepTharakan,EnergySectorOffice(SG-ENE).OverallguidancewasprovidedbyEnergySeniorDirectorPriyanthaWijayatungawithsupportfromPrincipalEnergyEconomistKee-YungNamandSeniorEnergyOfficerCharityTorregosa.Theproductionteamconsisted

ofCopyeditorMa.TheresaMercado;layoutanddesignbyAsiatype,Inc.

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB

–

AsianDevelopmentBank

CHP

–

combinedheatandpower

CO2

–

carbondioxide

CUF

–

capacityutilizationfactor

DMC

–

developingmembercountry

EU

–

EuropeanUnion

GHG

–

greenhousegas

IEA

–

InternationalEnergyAgency

ISA

–

InternationalSocietyofAutomation

LNG

–

liquefiednaturalgas

LOHC

–

liquidorganichydrogencarrier

OTEC

–

oceanthermalenergyconversion

PEM

–

protonexchangemembrane

PRC

–

People’sRepublicofChina

SMR

–

steam-methanereforming

US

–

UnitedStates

–

Btu

–

kg

–

km

–

–

MWMWh

–

tCO2e

–

TWh

WEIGHTSANDMEASURES

Britishthermalunit

kilogramkilometer

megawatt

megawatt-hour

tonsofcarbondioxideequivalentterawatt-hour

ABSTRACT

Thispaperprovidesanoverviewoftheemerginghydrogeneconomywithattentiontothemeritorderforhydrogenapplicationsandprospectiveinvestments,whichmightbesupportedbytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).Thispaperisnotaguidancedocumentnorisitadesignhandbook.Rather,itprovidesbasicinformationonglobalcontext,technologies,costs,andprospectivedevelopmentsinADB’sdevelopingmembercountries.Thispaperaimstohelpdecision-makersnavigatethegreenhydrogenvaluechainandunderstandwhatisrequiredforsuccessfulimplementationandreapthepotentialrewardsintheenergytransition.

Today,mosthydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgaswithemissionsofabout9tonsofcarbondioxide

(CO2)pertonofhydrogen.In2021,greenhousegas(GHG)emissionsfromhydrogenwereestimatedat

around900milliontonsofCO2peryear,about1.8%ofGHGemissions.

Greenhydrogenisascalableandflexibleenergycarrierproducedbyconvertingrenewableelectricity(electrons)tosplitwaterintohydrogen(protons)andoxygen,whichcanbestoredindefinitelyorconvertedintoothermolecules.Theoxygenby-productcanbesoldintoexistingmarketsdependingonlocaldemand.Hydrogen-derivedchemicals(molecules)canbetransportedinbulkasisthecaseforcrudeoil,naturalgas,refinedpetroleumproducts,andotherchemicals.Likefossilfuels—whichareformedbyacombinationofsolar,biomass,geothermalenergy,andgeologictime—hydrogenisanenergycarrier.Specifically,solar-to-hydrogenmimicsthenaturalprocessesthatcreatefossilfuels,andpotentialusesofgreenhydrogenmimictheexistingglobalhydrocarbonsbusiness.Thescalabilityofintermittentsolarandwindresourcesislimitedbytheabilitytotime-shiftrenewableenergyoutputtomatchdemand,andhydrogenappearstobeascalablesolutionforbothtime-shiftingandlocation-shiftingofrenewableenergy.

Onekilogramofhydrogenhastheenergyequivalentof1gallon(3.94liters)ofgasoline.Thecost-effectivenessofgreenhydrogenproductiondependsonelectricityinputcosts,electrolyzercosts,andelectrolyzerloadfactors.Greenhydrogenproductionmaybecommerciallyviabletodayat$4/kg;although$2/kgistypicallyreferencedasapricebenchmark,$4/kgisatparwithgasolinepricesinmanycountries.Theuseofintermittentversus“baseload”renewableenergydoesnotdictatethecommercialviabilityofgreenhydrogenproduction.Akeyrate-limitingfactorforscalingupgreenhydrogenproductionistheavailabilityofcriticalmetals,specificallyiridiumandplatinumforuseinelectrolyzers.

Fromapolicyperspective,greenhydrogenisenergy-intensiveandisnotthesolutiontoall.Greenhydrogendevelopmentmustbeconsideredinthebroadercontextofrenewableenergydevelopmentandtheneedforacceleratingtheglobalenergytransition.Greenhydrogenisa“power-to-X”businesspropositionbasedonsellingmoleculesratherthansellingelectronsviapowerpurchaseagreements.Today,thereisnoglobalhydrogenmarketanalogoustoglobalcrudeoilandotherhydrocarbons.Therefore,theviabilityofgreenhydrogenproductiondependsprimarilyonelectrolyzercosts,localenergycosts,specificend-useapplications,andwillingnessofhydrogenbuyerstocommittolong-termofftakeagreements(liketraditionalliquefiednaturalgasexportprojects).Hydrogensupplychaindevelopmentisexpectedtocontinueglobally,andasglobalelectrolyzermanufacturingcapacityincreasesavirtuouscycleofdevelopmentmayemerge.

EmergingHydrogenEnergyTechnologyandGlobalMomentum1

I.BACKGROUNDANDCONTEXT

Greenhydrogenisproducedbyelectrolysis,aprocessthatsplitswaterintohydrogenandoxygenthatispoweredbyrenewableenergyorbyreformingbiogas.1Thetechnicallogicforgreenhydrogenisstraightforward:hydrogenproductionfromfossilfuelsisemissions-intensiveandsubjecttovolatilityoffossilfuelprices,whilegreenhydrogenproductionisenergy-intensive2butcreatescostcertainty.Themeritorderforgreenhydrogendeploymentbeginswithreplacementofestablishedfossilhydrogenproductionanduse,followedbydisplacementoffossilfuelsinheavy,hard-to-decarbonizeindustries.Productionofrenewablefuelsfromhydrogenfortransportapplicationsandproductionofhydrogenforlong-termbulkstorageappearlessattractivecomparedtoelectrifiedtransportandevolvingenergystoragetechnologies.Untilthereisaglobalhydrogensupplychainresemblingthatforcrudeoilandrefinedpetroleumproducts,greenhydrogendevelopmentwillbelocation-specific,withdecisionsmadeona“targetsofopportunity”basis.

Fortheforeseeablefuture,theuptakeofgreenhydrogeninvestmentisexpectedtoincreasedramaticallyinAsiaandthePacificregioninbothdevelopedandemergingeconomies.GreenhydrogenhubsaregrowinginAustralia,theEuropeanUnion,andtheMiddleEast.Thepaceandscaleoftheinvestmentremainstobeseenindevelopingcountriesduetoup-front=capitalcosts,limitedrenewableenergydevelopment,andlackofsupportingpoliciesandtechnicalexpertiseinbothpublicandprivateenergycompaniestoestablishafinanciallyviablegreenhydrogensupplychain.Additionalchallengesarehighinitialcostsofproduction,storageandtransportationconstraints,commercialviability,andlimitedmarketwithlarge-scalepurchaseagreementsyettobeseen.

GreenhydrogenwillbepartoftheenergymixiftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)developingmembercountries(DMCs)aretoreachtheirclimategoalsandtransitiontoanet-zeroeconomy.TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)estimatesthatabout34milliontonsperyearofgreenhydrogenwillbeneededby2030tomeetPariscommitments,andabout100milliontonsperyearwillbeneededby2050tomeetnet-zerotargets(IEA2022).Multiplegigawatt-scaleinvestmentswillbeneededacrossthegreenhydrogensupplychainforrenewableenergy,electrolyzersystems,hydrogenstorage,andretrofittingportsandpipelines.AccordingtotheIEAnet-zeroscenario,globalannualinvestmentsinlow-emissionshydrogenstandatabout$500milion,butwouldneedtoincreaseatleasttenfoldby2030.ADBhassupportedmultipleassessmentsinDMCsviatechnicalassistance,butminimalinvestmentoperationshavebeenmadeasofJune2023.

Overall,ADBDMCsthatseektoexploregreenhydrogenwillneedsupportindevelopingpolicies,enhancingknowledgeandtechnicalexpertise,anddevelopingpilotprojectsacrossthehydrogensupplychainandcoveringallrelatedinfrastructurefromproductiontotransmissionanddistributiontodemand-use.Furthermore,bothprivateandstate-ownedoilandgascompanies(e.g.,PertaminainIndonesia,SinopecinthePeople’sRepublicofChina[PRC],andAdaniandRelianceinIndia)andheavyindustriesaredevelopingtheirowndecarbonizationplansandareactivelyassessingpotentialinvestmentsanddevelopinglarge-scalehydrogenprojects.

Hydrogenisrapidlyevolvingglobally,anditisimpossibletocovereverythinginasingledocument.Therefore,thispaperprovidesanoverviewoftheemerginghydrogeneconomywithattentiontothe

1Reformingofbiogasistechnologicallythesameashydrogenproductionfromnaturalgas.Athirdproductionpathwayisthermaldecompositionofwaterintohydrogenandoxygen,whichrequirestemperatureofatleast1,800°C.

2Electrolysisofwatertoproducehydrogenandoxygenrequiresabout50megawatt-hours(MWh)pertonofhydrogenproduced,with8tonsofoxygenby-product.

2ADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeriesNo.96

meritorderforhydrogenapplicationsandprospectiveinvestmentsinDMCsthatmightbesupportedbyADB.

Thispaperisnotaguidancedocumentnorisitadesignhandbook.Rather,itprovideskeyinformationontechnologies,costs,andprospectivedevelopmentsthatmightbesupportedbyADBintheforeseeablefuture.Thispaperaimstohelpdecision-makersnavigatethegreenhydrogenvaluechainandunderstandwhatisrequiredforsuccessfulimplementationandreapthepotentialrewardsintheenergytransition.

II.THEGREENHYDROGENVALUECHAIN

Hydrogenisusedprimarilyasanintermediateproductinpetroleumrefiningandchemicalmanufacturingsuchasintheproductionoffertilizers(e.g.,ammonia).Forpurposesofdiscussioninthispaper,hydrogeniscommonlyclassifiedasfollows(thisclassificationissimplifiedandnotcomprehensive):

(i)Greenhydrogen(or“renewablehydrogen”)isproducedbyelectrolysisofwaterwithrenewableelectricity,atacostrangeofabout$2.7–$5.9/kilogram(kg).Nogreenhousegases(GHGs)areemittedduringtheelectrolysisprocess.Greenhydrogencanalsobeproducedbyreformingbiogas,whichmayhavesomefugitivemethaneemissions.Oxygenisaby-productoftheelectrolysisprocess,with8kgofoxygenforeachkgofhydrogen.GreenhydrogenproductionwasdemonstratedatmegawattscaleatahydropowerplantinNorwayin1929.3

(ii)Grayhydrogenisproducedfromnaturalgas,afossilfuel,bysteam-methanereforming(SMR)atacostaround$1.62/kg,dependingonthepriceofgasandcarbonemissions.Thisproductionprocessresultsinemissionsofabout9.3kgcarbondioxide(CO2)perkgofhydrogen.

(iii)Bluehydrogenusesthesameproductionprocessesasgrayhydrogen,buttheCO2iscapturedandstoredpermanently.Itsproductioncostsaround$2.16/kg,makingitmoreexpensivethangrayhydrogenbutcheaperthangreenhydrogen.WhereCO2storagecapacityisavailable,existinghydrogenproductionfacilitiescouldbeconvertedtobluehydrogen,thusreducinginvestmentcosts.

In2021,globalhydrogenproductionwasabout94milliontonsrecoveringtoabovepre-coronavirusdisease(COVID-19)pandemiclevels(91milliontonsin2019),whichcontainsenergyequaltoabout2.5%ofglobalfinalenergyconsumption.Mostoftheincreasecamefromtraditionalusesinrefiningandindustry,thoughdemandfornewapplicationsgrewtoabout40,000tons(up60%from2020,albeitfromalowbase)(IEA2022).Morethan75%oftheglobalhydrogenmarketisproducedfromnaturalgas(grayhydrogen),whichconsumes6%ofglobalnaturalgasproduction;GHGemissionsareestimatedataround900milliontonsofCO2peryear,about1.8%ofglobalGHGemissionsin2021.4Justunderone-fourth(23%)oftheglobalhydrogenmarketisproducedfromcoal(“brown”hydrogen)consumingabout2%oftheglobalcoalsupply.Theremainingshareofglobalhydrogencomesfromoilandelectricity(

Figure

1).Greenhydrogencurrentlyaccountsforonlyabout0.1%ofoverallhydrogenproduction(WorldEconomicForum2023).

3

4

LinkedIn.

TerjeHauan’sPost

.

GlobalGHGemissionswereabove54billiontonsofcarbondioxideequivalent(tCO2e)in2021:OurWorldinData.

Total

greenhousegasemissions

(accessedAugust2023).

EmergingHydrogenEnergyTechnologyandGlobalMomentum3

Figure1:HydrogenValueChain

DRI–directreducedironproduction,H2–hydrogen,Mt–milliontons,Mtoe–milliontonsofoilequivalent.Source:InternationalEnergyAgency,2019.

GreenhydrogenwillbeanessentialpartoftheenergymixifADBDMCsaretoreachtheirclimategoalsandtransitiontoanet-zeroeconomy.

Figure

2illustratesglobalCO2emissionsbysector,withelectricpowergenerationaccountingfor38%ofemissionswithothersectorsaccountingfor62%(InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency2018).Freighttransport,alongwithironandsteel,cement,chemical,andaluminumproduction,accountfor27%ofemissions:addressingthesehard-to-decarbonizesectorsisrequiredtoreachthe1.5targetoftheParisclimateaccords(IPCC2018,UNEP2019).

Figure2:GlobalCarbonDioxideEmissionsbyEnergySector

Source:InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,2018.

Althoughgreenhydrogencurrentlymakesupaverysmallshareofthehydrogenmarket(lessthan1%),theamountofelectrolyzercapacityforgreenhydrogenproductionhassignificantlyincreasedinrecentyears(

Figure

3).Thecost-competitivenessofgreenhydrogenproductionwillimproveaselectrolyzerefficiencyincreasesandelectrolyzercostsdecline.

4ADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeriesNo.96

ElectrolyzerCapacity(GW)

5,500

4,500

3,500

2,500

1,500

500

-500

Figure3:ElectrolyzerInstalledCapacity,2020–2050

2020202520302035204020452050

Year

BasecaseAggressivedevelopment

GW=gigawatt.

Source:WorldResourcesInstitute,2023.DerivedfromInternationalEnergyAgencyGlobalHydrogenReview2022,andDNVHydrogenForecastto2050,2022.

Asshownin

Figure

4thehydrogensupplychainsinclude:

(i)Accesstorawmaterialsforproduction(feedstock,electricity,etc.).

(ii)Productiontechnologies:steam-methanereforming(SMR,electrolyzers,etc.).

(iii)Storage:Hydrogencanbestoredphysicallyaseitheragasoraliquid.Storageofhydrogenasagastypicallyrequireshigh-pressuretanks(350–700bar[5,000–10,000poundspersquareinch(psi)]tankpressure)(USDepartmentofEnergy2019).Transportanddistribution:pipelines,tubetrailer,tankers,etc.

(iv)End-useapplications:transport,stationaryconsumption.

(v)Supportservices,whichareusuallynotrecognizedaspartofthehydrogensupplychainbutarecriticaltotheoperationofhydrogenprojects(e.g.,health,safety,andenvironment;qualityassurance,training,etc.).

EmergingHydrogenEnergyTechnologyandGlobalMomentum5

Figure4:HydrogenSupplyChain

CC=carboncapture,FC=fuelcell.

Source:InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,2018.

A.AdvantagesofGreenHydrogen

GreenhydrogenappearstobeamultipurposeandadaptableapproachtoreduceCO2emissionsatscalebutfacestechnical,safety,financial,andeconomicchallenges.Greenhydrogensolutions,whendevelopedanddeployedwidely,canprovidenumerousbenefitsasfollows:

(i)Acceleratingtheintegrationandpenetrationofcleanenergysolutions,includingsolar,wind,miniandlargehydro,marineenergy,etc.

(ii)Improvingthetechno-commercialviabilityofdemand-sidemanagementwithbetter,moreresilient,reliable,andversatileenergystorage.

(iii)Deliveringabetteroperationandmanagementsolutiontopeakloadsandreducegridinstabilityandcongestion.

(iv)Increasingthenumberofenduserapplicationsindifferentsectors(transport,heat,etc.).

(v)Expandingnewvariableintermittentrenewablegenerationwithgreenhydrogenforelectricalgridnetworkbalancingandlong-termbulkstorage.

(vi)Providingadecentralizedsolutionandreducingrisksassociatedwithelectricityinfrastructureleadingtobulkcurtailmentofrenewableenergygeneration.

(vii)Creatingnewemploymentingreenhydrogen,automotive,fuelcell,safety,andotherbusinesses.

(viii)Increasingenergysecurity,reducingdependenceonfossilfuels,andprovidingoptimumuseofnationalresources.

(ix)Formingnewregionalmarketssellingandbuyinggreenhydrogenenergy.

6ADBSustainableDevelopmentWorkingPaperSeriesN