宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)（第十三版）課件：Unemployment

Unemployment

.IntroductionUnemploymentandoutputaretightlylinked–butthelinkisnotperfectUnemploymentisalaggingeconomicindicatorCanbeamistakenguidetopolicyRisingGDPmaybeoflittlesolacetothosestillwithoutajobCostsofunemploymentnotequallydistributed7-2TheBeveridgeCurve

FindingajobtakestimeJobmatchingprocessillustratedbytheBeveridgeCurveShowsunemploymentratevs.numberofjobopeningsDuringGreatRecessionandyearsfollowingunemploymenthigh,butjobvacancieshigherinperiodfollowingrecession7-3TheAnatomyofUnemploymentFivekeycharacteristicsofunemploymentintheU.S.Therearelargevariationsinunemploymentratesacrossgroupsdefinedbyage,race,orexperience.Thereishighturnoverinthelabormarket.Flowsintoandoutofemploymentandunemploymentarehighrelativetothenumbersofemployedorunemployed.Asignificantpartofthisturnoveriscyclical:Layoffsandseparationsarehighduringrecessions,andvoluntaryquitsarehighduringbooms.Mostpeoplewhobecomeunemployedinanygivenmonthremainunemployedforonlyashorttime.MuchoftheU.S.unemploymentconsistsofpeoplewhowillbeunemployedforquitealongtime.7-4TheAnatomyofUnemploymentThesizeofthelaborforceisdeterminedfromsurveysbytheBLSLaborforce=unemployed(U)+employed(E)UnemployedisonewhoisoutofworkandwhoeitherHasactivelylookedforworkduringtheprevious4weeksORIswaitingtoberecalledtoajobafterhavingbeenlaidoff7-5TheAnatomyofUnemploymentEmployedpersonisonewhoduringthereferenceweek:DidatleastonehourofworkforpayinthelastweekWorkedatleast15hoursasanunpaidworkerforanenterpriseownedbyafamilymemberORWasnotworking,butonlytemporarilyabsentfromwork(ex.vacationormaturityleave)7-6TheUnemploymentPoolAtanypointintimethereisagivennumber(pool) ofunemployedpeopleThereareflowsinandoutoftheunemploymentpool.Apersoncanbecomeunemployedforoneoffourreasons:He/shemaybeanewentrantorreentrantintotheLFThepersonmayquitajobinordertolookforotheremploymentandmayregisterasunemployedwhilesearchingThepersonmaybelaidoffTheworkermayloseajob(firedorfirmcloses)7-7TheUnemploymentPoolTherearethreewaysofmovingoutoftheunemploymentpool:ApersonmaybehiredintoanewjobSomeonelaidoffmayberecalledAnunemployedpersonmaystoplookingforajob,andthusmoveoutofthelaborforceUnemploymentisrisingwhenmorepeopleareenteringthepoolthanleavingJoblossesaccountforhalfofnewunemployment;voluntaryseparations,newentrants,andreentrantsintotheLFaccountfortheotherhalf7-8VariationinUnemploymentAcrossGroupsTheaggregateunemploymentratetellsustheshareofthelaborforcethatisunemployedTheaggregatenumberconcealswidevariationsacrossvarioussegmentsofthepopulationTeenagershavemuchhigherunemploymentratesthanolderworkersBlackunemploymentishigherthanthatoftheirwhitecohortsFemaleunemploymentwashigherthanmaleunemploymentthroughthe1970s,butnowlowerthanmaleunemploymentTherelationshipbetweentheaggregateunemploymentrate,u,andthatofgroupsis:(1),wherewiarethefractionofthecivilianLFthatfallswithinaspecificgroup7-9VariationinUnemploymentAcrossGroups

7-10CyclicalandFrictionalUnemploymentFrictionalunemploymentistheunemploymentthatexistswhentheeconomyisatfullemploymentResultsfromthestructureofthelabormarket,including:ThenatureofjobsintheeconomySocialhabitsLabormarketinstitutionsFrictionalunemploymentrate=naturalrateofunemploymentCyclicalunemploymentisunemploymentinexcessoffrictionalunemploymentOccurswhenoutputisbelowthefullemploymentlevelThepresenceofcyclicalunemploymentindicatesadownturnintheeconomy7-11LaborMarketFlowsLabormarketturnover,flowsintoandoutofunemploymentandemploymentandbetweenjobs,islargeTable7-2showstheaverageofmonthlyflowsin2012intoandoutofemploymentwithinthemanufacturingsectorAdded2.1individualsper100employeestopayrollsRemoved2.0individualsper100employeesfrompayrolls7-12DurationofUnemploymentAnotherissuetoconsiderwhenexaminingunemploymentisthedurationofunemploymentspellsAspellofunemploymentisaperiodinwhichanindividualremainscontinuouslyunemployedThedurationofunemploymentistheaveragelengthoftimeapersonremainsunemployed7-13DeterminantsoftheNaturalRateThedeterminantsofthenaturalrateofunemployment,u*,canbethoughtofintermsofthedurationandfrequencyofunemploymentThedurationofunemploymentdependsoncyclicalfactorsandonthefollowingstructuralcharacteristicsofthelabormarket:Theorganizationofthelabormarket,includingthepresenceorabsenceofemploymentagencies,youthemploymentservices,etc.ThedemographicmakeupofthelaborforceTheabilityanddesireoftheunemployedtokeeplookingforabetterjob,whichdependsinpartontheavailabilityofunemploymentbenefits7-14DeterminantsoftheNaturalRateThedeterminantsofthenaturalrateofunemployment,u*,canbethoughtofintermsofthedurationandfrequencyofunemploymentThefrequencyofunemploymentistheaveragenumberoftimesperperiodthatworkersbecomeunemployedTwobasicdeterminantsofthefrequencyofunemployment:VariabilityofthedemandforlaboracrossdifferentfirmsintheeconomyTherateatwhichnewworkersenterthelaborforce,sincenewpotentialworkersbeginasunemployedworkersThedeterminantsofdurationandfrequencyofunemploymentarethebasicdeterminantsofthenaturalrateofunemployment7-15DeterminantsoftheNaturalRate

7-16EstimatesoftheNaturalRateTheequationforthenaturalrateofunemploymentissimilartoequation(1):(2)Equation(2)saysthatthenaturalrateistheweightedaverageofthenaturalratesofunemploymentofthesubgroupsintheLFSeveraladjustmentsareneededtoaccountfor:ChangingcompositionoftheLF,includingincreasingshareofteenagersChangesinthefundamentaldeterminantsofthenaturalrate,includingunemploymentbenefits7-17EstimatesoftheNaturalRate

TheCongressionalBudgetOffice(CBO)providesanofficialfull-employment-unemploymentrateestimateIfactualunemploymentrateisabovenaturalrate,u>u*,Y<Y*Ifactualunemploymentrateisbelownaturalrate,u<u*,Y>Y*7-18HysteresisandtheRisingNaturalRateofUnemploymentBetween1973and1988theU.S.unemploymentratestayedwellabovethenaturalrateestimatedusingthedemographicadjustmentmethodSomeeconomistsarguethattheunemploymentrateoverlongperiodscannotmovetoofarfromthenaturalrate

thenaturalratemusthaveincreasedoverthistimeperiodWHY?7-19HysteresisandtheRisingNaturalRateofUnemploymentOneexplanationisunemploymenthysteresis:extendedperiodsofhighunemploymentraisethenaturalrateUnemployedmightbecomeaccustomedtonotworkingUnemployedcouldbecomediscouragedandnotvigorouslyseekworkLongunemploymentspellsmightsignaltofirmsthataworkerisundesirable,andthefirmsmightavoidhiringsuchworkers7-20UnemploymentBenefitsUnemploymentbenefitsincreasetherateofunemploymentintwoways:UnemploymentbenefitsallowforlongerjobsearchesLessenstheseverityofbeinginandoutofjobsUnemploymentbenefitsincreasethemeasuredunemploymentratethroughreportingeffectsInordertocollect