安全技術(shù)及工程畢業(yè)論文.doc

中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)畢業(yè)論文大型商場火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法及應(yīng)用研究學(xué)科專業(yè)：安全技術(shù)及工程大型商場火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法及應(yīng)用研究摘要近年來，大型商場由于安全管理不善，導(dǎo)致特大火災(zāi)事故綿綿不斷，從火災(zāi)事故統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，我們知道，造成這些重大火災(zāi)事故，大部分都與責(zé)任人或責(zé)任因素有關(guān)，但由于各地火災(zāi)公共責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)的投保面窄，投保額低，政府在災(zāi)害事故的善后工作中承擔(dān)著巨大的壓力。這種狀況既不利于社會的穩(wěn)定，也不利于經(jīng)濟(jì)社會的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。因此，在積極預(yù)防災(zāi)害、加強(qiáng)安全管理的同時(shí)，充分發(fā)揮火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)的作用，加快建立因他方責(zé)任而造成的第三者財(cái)產(chǎn)損失和人身傷害的補(bǔ)償機(jī)制，顯得十分緊迫和必要。保險(xiǎn)公司應(yīng)提升服務(wù)水平，充分發(fā)揮保險(xiǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)杠桿的作用，根據(jù)保險(xiǎn)標(biāo)的的不同風(fēng)險(xiǎn)實(shí)行浮動費(fèi)率，體現(xiàn)“獎優(yōu)罰劣”的目的。作為保險(xiǎn)部門，通過火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估可以全面考察商場的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，研究商場的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)如何隨外界條件的改變而變化，以便為尋求最優(yōu)的安全投資提供可靠的理論依據(jù)。它的主要任務(wù)是準(zhǔn)確識別系統(tǒng)中存在的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素，并對這些火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的影響程度做出恰當(dāng)?shù)脑u估，量化被評估對象的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，為提出控制與處理事故的措施和方案奠定基礎(chǔ)?？梢姡绾慰茖W(xué)地評估大型商場火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)狀況，既有利于火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)業(yè)務(wù)穩(wěn)定經(jīng)營，也為核保提供技術(shù)支持。因此，它是保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)迫切需要解決的問題，它為制定合理的火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)率和出具防災(zāi)防損建議提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。本文就火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)在全面推行過程中，對一定會遇到的問題作了較為細(xì)致的研究。其主要結(jié)論如下：（1）在全面了解國內(nèi)外火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)實(shí)施的基礎(chǔ)上，詳細(xì)論述現(xiàn)階段我國火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)強(qiáng)制實(shí)施的重要性和緊迫性。論述國內(nèi)外火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法研究現(xiàn)狀、發(fā)展趨勢以及在保險(xiǎn)行業(yè)的應(yīng)用狀況。（2）論文對商場火災(zāi)危險(xiǎn)性進(jìn)行了分析，討論了因素集、評估集、單級評估、評估計(jì)算模型和多級評估模型，并在此基礎(chǔ)上建立了以商場建筑自身安全、滅火救援力量、疏散系統(tǒng)、人員特征以及防火管理為子集的大型商場火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊評估的三級指標(biāo)體系，采用專家調(diào)查表方法確定了評估指標(biāo)的權(quán)重系數(shù)。（3）模糊綜合評估方法可以對難以定量的多因素體系做出定量評估，它可以將定量的問題以及人們對此問題的主觀判斷有數(shù)量的形式表達(dá)出來，并進(jìn)行模糊運(yùn)算處理。它在一定程度上能減少人的主觀錯(cuò)誤，使評估更加科學(xué)合理。本論文采用模糊綜合評估方法對大型商場火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行評估，具有一定的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。（4）在商場火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估研究的基礎(chǔ)上，對火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)的費(fèi)率厘定作了進(jìn)一步的探討，并制定了科學(xué)合理的定價(jià)模型，對當(dāng)前火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)的全面推行，具有相當(dāng)重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。（5）本文通過對武漢某商場的火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估，演示了所提出的方法的可行性，它為保險(xiǎn)公司和商場的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制工作提供技術(shù)支撐。關(guān)鍵詞：火災(zāi)公共責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估費(fèi)率風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制ResearchonFireRiskAssessmentMethodoftheLarge-scaleMarketsaboutthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFireABSTRACTRecently,thebadsafetymanagementcausesthebigfireaccidentcontinuouslyinthelarge-scalemarkets.Fromthefireaccidentstatisticsdata,thesebigfireaccidentsarerelatedtotheownersortheresponsibilityfactors.However,becausethelimitedinsureditemsandlowlinesofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFire,governmentwasundertakingthehugepressureatthefollowing-uptreatmentofdisaster.Thiskindofconditiondoesnotonlyfavorthesocialstability,butalsothesustainabledevelopmentofeconomicsociety.Therefore,whenwepreventthedisasterandenhancethesafetycontrolpositivelyweshoulddisplaythefunctionofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFirefully,speedsuptheestablishmentofcompensationmechanismforthethirdpartypropertydamageandthepersoninjurescausedbyanothersourceofresponsibility,thatappearsextremelyurgentandessential.Insurancecompaniesshouldupgradetheirservicestandardsandgivefullplayastheroleofinsuranceeconomiclevers.Itshouldpracticeafloatingrateaccordingtothevarioussubjectmatterofinsurance,reflectingthepurposeof“rewardthegoodandfinethebad”.Astheinsurancesector,theycanhaveacomprehensivestudyofthefirerisksituationbyconductingthefireriskassessment.Theydoresearchonhowthefireriskwillbechangingwiththechangedoftheconditionsoftheoutsideworld,inordertoprovideareliabletheoryforseekingthebestsafetyinvestment.Itsmaintaskistoidentifythefireriskfactorswhichareexistedinthesystemaccurately,andtodosomeappropriateassessmentabouttheimpactlevelofthefireriskfactors，andtoquantifythesituationofthefireriskoftheevaluated-objects.Throughabovesteps,theycanlayoutthefoundationstomeasuresandprogrammes.So,Howtoevaluatethefireriskconditionsofshoppingmallsscientificallyisnotonlygoodtoconductthefirepublicliabilityinsurancestability,buttoprovidetechnicalsupportsforunderwriting.Therefore,itistheimpressingproblemtobeaddressedintheinsuranceindustry.ItalsoprovidesscientificsuggestionsforformulatingareasonablerateoffireofpublicliabilityinsuranceandtellingouttheadvicesofdisasterpreventionandlossPrevention.ThisarticleisonthecarefulresearchabouttheproblemswewillmeetduringthecomprehensiveprocesswhenwecarryoutthePublicliabilityInsuranceofFire.Asfollowsarethemainconclusions:（1）OnthebasicofhavingacomprehensiveunderstandingoftheimplementationofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFireathomeandabroad,discussingindetailthattheimportanceandurgencyoftheenforcementedimplementationofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFireatthestageinourcountry.Discussingtheresearchstatus,developingtrendandtheapplicationintheinsuranceaboatthefireriskassessmentmethodsathomeandabroad.（2）thepaperhascarriedontheanalysistothehazardofmarketfires,thediscussionaboutthefactorsystem,theevaluationsystem,singleclassevaluation,evaluationcalculationmodelandmultilevelevaluationmode.Andestablishedinthisfoundationwehaveestablishedthethreelevelstandardssystemwhichisaboutthefuzzyappraisaloflarge-scalemarketsfireriskswhichconsistsofthebuildingsownsecurity,thefirefightingrescuestrength,thescatteredsystem,thepersonnelcharacteristicaswellasthefireprotectionmanagement.Subsystemfactorswereascertained.Usingexpertsresearchmethod,theauthormadesuretheweightofthefireevaluationsystem.（3）Fuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodcanmakequantitativeassessmentonthemulti-factorssystem.ThequantitativeproblemsandthePeoplessubjectivejudgementsonthisissuecanbeexpressedinthewayofamout,andtodofuzzyprocessing.Toacertainextent,itcanreducethesubjectivemistakesandmaketheevaluationmorescientifically.ThispaperusedfuzzycomprehensivemethodtoevaluatethefireriskofLarge-scaleMarkets,hasatheoreticalandpracticalsignificance.（4）onthebasisofassessmentresearchofmarketfiresrisks,theauthormakethefurtherdiscussionaboutthetariffofthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFire,andformulatethescientificandreasonablemodeloffixingprice,whichhavethepracticalsignificantinfluenceonthecomprehensivecarryingoutthePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFire.（5）throughtheassessmentoffiresriskstosomemarketinWuhan,theauthordemonstratesthefeasibilityofthemethodwhichproposed.ItprovidestheeffectivetechnicalsupportfortheinsurancecompanyandthecontrolofrisktoLarge-scaleMarkets.KeyWords:thePublicLiabilityInsuranceofFirefireriskassessmentthetariffthecontrolofrisk目錄第一章緒論.11.1課題的研究背景.11.1.1我國大型商場火災(zāi)形勢嚴(yán)峻.11.1.2大型商場火災(zāi)特點(diǎn).21.1.3火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)的強(qiáng)制推行必要性.31.2國內(nèi)外火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法在保險(xiǎn)業(yè)中的應(yīng)用現(xiàn)狀.41.3本文研究內(nèi)容和意義.51.3.1研究內(nèi)容.51.3.2研究意義.6第二章常見建筑火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法.72.1火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的相關(guān)概念.72.2火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量和容忍度.82.2.1火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的度量.82.2.2風(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍度.102.3火災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估方法.102.3.1定性分析方法.102.3.2半定量分析方法.112.3.3定量分析方法.13第三章大型商場火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估指標(biāo)體系建立.183.1大型商場火災(zāi)發(fā)展特性.183.1.1火災(zāi)起始階段.183.1.2火災(zāi)全面發(fā)展階段.193.1.3火災(zāi)熄滅階段.193.2大型商場火災(zāi)主要原因.203.2.1電氣火災(zāi).203.2.2裝飾裝修違反消防規(guī)定.203.2.3消防設(shè)施缺陷.203.2.4消防意識淡薄.213.2.5公眾普遍缺乏消防常識.213.3大型商場內(nèi)火災(zāi)蔓延途徑.213.3.1水平方向蔓延.213.3.2火災(zāi)通過豎井蔓延.223.3.3火災(zāi)通過空調(diào)系統(tǒng)管道蔓延.223.3.4火災(zāi)由窗口向上層蔓延.223.4大型商場火災(zāi)公眾責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評估指標(biāo)體系的建立.22