TOC約束理論(瓶頸管理)八講 作業(yè).doc

GOLDRATT SATELLITE PROGRAM 高瑞特衛(wèi)星節(jié)目SESSION ONE第一講OPERATIONS作業(yè)Hi! System Approach. 嗨！ 系統(tǒng)方式。There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a system approach, holistic approach. 廣泛的共識是，如果我們想要改善公司的績效，我們必須采用系統(tǒng)方式 。We all agree about that the only question is how do you do it. 我們都同意，唯一的問題在于你如何去做。Well, lets try.讓我們來試試。First thing is, its obvious that we cannot look on just one function in isolation or on just issue in isolation.首先，很顯然的，我們不能將每一個功能或問題個別分開來看。 So for example, if you want to take a system approach to an organization you have to start with a broad base. 舉例來說，如果你要以系統(tǒng)方式來解決一個組織問題，你必須從全面的角度來看。Like for example, to take into consideration logistics and the markets and financial concerns and do not forget that any organization is composed out of people you must take into account people relationships as well. 譬如說，當(dāng)考慮運籌、市場與財務(wù)問題時，別忘了每一個公司都是由人所組成，你也必須將人際關(guān)系考慮進(jìn)去。 So far so good.到目前為止一切還好。But then what do you do? 但是，接下來你怎么做呢？In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. 為了要示范，我來舉一個例子。 Now, as always when you are taking examples there is a fear of taking a too small example and then the conclusions are too broad example and then its like you havent taken an example at all. 通常當(dāng)我們舉例時，總擔(dān)心所舉的例子太小而結(jié)論卻不具體，或例子太廣泛，結(jié)果就好像沒有一樣。 So what I will do, I will take as an example the entire steel industry in the world. 因此我要以全世界的鋼鐵業(yè)為例。System approach.系統(tǒng)方式。 What did we say? 我們說了什么呢？ Well take for example one aspect of logistic - what will it be in the steel industry? 我們將舉一個運籌方面的例子 它在鋼鐵業(yè)會是什么樣子呢？ Something really bothering people about the existing logistics. 對運籌而言，有些事真讓人心煩。It will be something like finished goods inventories are much too high in that industry. 例如，“在鋼鐵業(yè)里，成品庫存太高了”之類的事。 Well, let me tell you a little bit about it so you understand that when steel industry is talking about problems of too much finished goods inventory, its even worse than what happens in your industry. 嗯，讓我來告訴你，鋼鐵業(yè)成品庫存太高的問題，比你所在之產(chǎn)業(yè)還要嚴(yán)重的多。As you see, a mid-range steel mill has about quarter of a million tons of finished steel on their yard. 如你所知，一個中級規(guī)模的鋼鐵廠在它們的倉庫里約有二十五萬噸成品。This is huge. 這是個很大的數(shù)量。 Why does it bother them so much?這為什么造成他們這么多的困擾呢？Just let me remind you that steel, not like wine, is not improving with time. 讓我提醒你們，鋼并不像酒一樣會越陳越香。As a matter of fact when you are talking to them they confess that they do not know what they produce more steel or rust. 事實上當(dāng)你和他們談起時，他們承認(rèn)，他們不知道生產(chǎn)比較多的是鋼還是鐵銹。This is the magnitude of the problem - its huge. 這是個大問題。 Then we said, we shouldnt take just logistic problem and deal with it in isolation, we have to look on other issues at the same time in order to have the system approach. 所以，我們不應(yīng)只考慮到運籌而且把它單獨分開來處理，我們必須同時看待其它的問題以便采取系統(tǒng)方式。What was the other thing? 其它的問題是什么呢？The market, now what you look on the market, something bad. 是市場，現(xiàn)在你所看的市場，情況很糟。 Well, in the steel industry its very easy to see what is bad, because thats what you are getting through the phones all time and this is customer complaints. 嗯，在鋼鐵業(yè)你很容易發(fā)現(xiàn)什么是糟糕的，就是你常在電話中所接到的顧客抱怨。Not like in other industries there is something little bit special about the steel industry, which is - over 95% of the complaints is about one single issue, and there are furious complaints. 不像別的工業(yè)，鋼鐵業(yè)有一點不同， 超過95的抱怨是同一個問題，而且這些抱怨是激烈的。And the issue is you promised to deliver and you didnt deliver on time. 問題就是“你答應(yīng)要交貨，卻沒有準(zhǔn)時交貨”。 First of all you can ask yourself what do you mean promised to deliver if they have so much finished goods inventories. 首先你可能會問你自己，既然成品庫存有這么多，你說“答應(yīng)要交貨”到底是什么意思。How come that they didnt deliver it immediately. 為什么他們沒有立刻把貨運送出去呢？Well, as it happens, when you come to order something from the steel mill, yes the do have a quarter of million tons of steel on their fields, but not what you are asking for. 嗯，情形是這樣的，當(dāng)你向鋼鐵工廠訂購一些東西時，他們的確有近二十五萬噸的鋼鐵在他們的倉庫里，但不是你要的那種。 So if you will go to a Korean steel mill they will tell you, for example if you are asking for steel plates, they will tell you 6 weeks. 比方說，如果你跑到一家韓國鋼鐵工廠要買鋼板，他們會告訴你要六個星期。If you go to European steel mill they will tell you 6 weeks. 如果你跑到歐洲鋼鐵工廠，他們也會告訴你要六個星期。If you go to the US steel mill they will tell you 6 weeks. 如果你跑到美國鋼鐵廠，他們還是會告訴你要六個星期。Its like number that came to Moses on mount Sinai. 這就好像摩西在西奈山所得到的數(shù)目。So now you do not have a choice, you have to wait 6 weeks, fine. 因此你沒有選擇，你必須等六個星期，好吧！And then it turns out that their due date performance is 60%. In other words, in 60% of the cases they will deliver before or at 6 weeks. 結(jié)果他們交期績效是60。換句話說，60的情況，他們會在六個星期內(nèi)或更早交貨。In the remaining 40% they will deliver eventually. 剩下40，他們遲早會交貨。And eventually can be as long as 15 weeks. 最后可能拖到15個星期。Now why is it such a problem there? 那么，為什么會有這樣的問題呢？Its due to the nature of the clients of the steel mills. 這要追究于鋼鐵工廠客戶的性質(zhì)。Suppose that you are a client of the steel mill, a big client. 假設(shè)你是這家鋼鐵工廠的客戶，大客戶。Suppose that you are doing steel bridges. 而你是造鋼鐵橋的。In order to do one steel bridge you are using lets say something like over 200 different types of plates. 為了造一座鋼鐵橋你得用到兩百種不同的鋼板。Now what are the facts? 事實上呢？The chance of getting one type of plate on time is about 60%, 0.6. 準(zhǔn)時得到一種鋼板的機(jī)率是大約60，0.6。If that is the case, what is the chance of getting two plates of steel at the same time? 如果是這樣，那么同時準(zhǔn)時得到兩種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢？0.6 time 0.6 in other words about 36%. 0.6乘以0.6，換句話說，大概是36。What is the chance of getting 4 plates on time? 同時準(zhǔn)時得到四種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢？Its 0.36 time 0.36 - oh, oh - its 10% now. 它是0.36乘以0.36，嗯 這次大概是10。Whats the chance of getting 8 plates on time? 1%. 準(zhǔn)時得到八種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢？1。Whats the chance of getting 200 plates on time? 準(zhǔn)時得到兩百種鋼板的機(jī)率有多大呢？Less than the chance of winning the lottery. 比贏得樂透彩券還小。But if one plate is missing you cannot deliver the bridge to your client.但如果缺了一片鋼板，你就無法將橋完成交給你的客戶了。 You can imagine what furious complaints we are talking about, unbelievable. 你可以想象我們所說的憤怒抱怨了，難以相信。Fine. 很好。So we are looking on the market. 所以我們看了市場問題。We are looking on logistics. 我們看了運籌。What else finance.還有什么別的財務(wù)。What is the biggest problem in the steel mill? 鋼鐵工廠最大的問題是什么呢？The biggest problem is very long payback periods of investments. 最大的問題是投資的回收期非常長。What am I talking about? 我所指的是什么呢？You know that when you want to buy a new piece of equipment and you belong to a corporate, you have to fill out an appropriation request for this piece of equipment where you have to justify why you want to buy it. 你知道當(dāng)你在一家大公司要買一臺新設(shè)備，你要填寫申請表，來評估為什么要買它。And the justification is financial. 這個評估就是財務(wù)。And basically you have to justify that due to this new piece equipment within some period of time you will cover the whole investment. 基本上你必須評估這一新設(shè)備，在多長時間內(nèi)就可以回收所有的投資。Now in most industries, world wide there is a magic number today which is 2 years. 在大多數(shù)工業(yè)，舉世皆然地存在一個神奇數(shù)字，那就是兩年。Which means if your appropriation request shows that it will take to return the investment in 2 and a half years most probably the corporate will send it back to you and not approve it. 這意謂著，如果你的申請顯示你將在兩年半內(nèi)回收，很有可能公司會把它退回給你而不批準(zhǔn)。So then you will have to take it back to fudge the numbers, to show that its below two years, submit it again. 因此你必須回去捏造數(shù)據(jù)，湊出它是小于兩年，然后再呈核一次。We all know these number games. 我們對這些數(shù)字游戲都很清楚。Well, in the steel mills they approve even when they appropriation request is up to 7 years. 嗯，在鋼鐵廠即使申請回收年限高達(dá)七年他們也會批準(zhǔn)。They dont like it one bit, but they know that if they put this restriction of 2 years maximum they cannot buy any new equipment and they know that they must move with the technology. 他們一點也不喜歡這樣，但他們知道如果設(shè)下了兩年之限制，將會無法買到任何新設(shè)備，而他們必須跟隨著技術(shù)。This is a huge problem. 這是一個大問題。What about human relationships? 人際關(guān)系呢？Oh, over there are no lack of problems. 哦，永遠(yuǎn)都有問題。You see in a regular steel mill the internal politics is much, much worse than Washington. 你知道在一個正常的鋼鐵廠內(nèi)部的政治問題比在華盛頓那里還要更糟。In most steel mills you will find out that there is a minimum three different chapters of the unions. 在多數(shù)鋼鐵廠中你至少可以找到三個不同的工會聯(lián)盟。And they are fighting with each other even more than they are fighting with management. 他們彼此間的爭斗比他們和管理階層之間的爭斗還要更嚴(yán)重。It is craziness. 真是瘋狂。Fine, so here we defined what are the things that we want to look on. 好吧，我們已經(jīng)界定我們所要看的對象了。What do we do now? 現(xiàn)在該怎么做呢？How do we now continue according to the system approach? 我們依照系統(tǒng)方式該怎么繼續(xù)呢？We dont know. 我們不知道。So what do we do? 那我們該做什么呢？We do what the steel industry is doing, which is to deal with each one of these items in isolation. 我們做鋼鐵業(yè)所做的事，就是分開單獨處理每一件事。For example, how do they try to rectify the situation of the too much finished goods inventories? 例如說，怎么解決成品庫存過多呢?They put a new computer system, and if it does not work, they put the newer computer system. And if this does not work, they put the newest computer system. 他們裝了一套新計算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，如果不行，再裝一套更新的計算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，再不行，再裝最新的計算機(jī)系統(tǒng)，ERP。ERP today with the efforts to implement it is minimum 10 million dollars. 今天的ERP包括導(dǎo)入至少要花一千萬美元。They still do it because the magnitude of the problem is huge. 但由于問題很大，他們?nèi)匀徽兆隽恕hat about customer complaints? 那顧客的抱怨怎么辦呢？Fine, we know what to do with it. 好，我們知道怎么處理它。We hire a consulting company that will go and do a survey among the clients and submit their recommendation of how to rearrange the customer service department. 我們請顧問公司去作客戶調(diào)查，并提出有關(guān)如何重整顧客服務(wù)部門之建議書。And the next one. 下一個 。Long payback periods, that is a financial problem, we will have to deal with it with financial methods. 漫長的投資回收期，那是一項財務(wù)問題，我們必需用財務(wù)的手段來解決它。And what they are doing is merging, downsizing, there whole countries that have lost their entire steel mill industry due to that. 他們采取并購、縮編，整個國家因為這個原因已失去全部鋼鐵業(yè)。That is the size of the problem. 那是大問題。What about human problems? 那人的問題怎么辦呢？That is life. 那是人生。So we will try to hire some organizational psychologists, and if this does not help, I know now they are now looking for organizational psychiatrists. 所以我們嘗試雇用一些組織心理學(xué)家，如果他們幫不上忙，我們會再找組織精神科醫(yī)生。Nobody came forward yet. 目前還沒找到。But look what is really happening. 但是看看實際發(fā)生的事。Fine, we understand system approach. 好了，我們了解系統(tǒng)方式了。We understand that in order to do it we have to start not with one issue or one function, but with broad scope. 我們了解為了要做，我們不能只從一個問題或一項功能開始，而必須是全面性的。And then, and then we dont know what to do, so we are diverting back to each issue in isolation. 然后我們不知道要做什么，所以我們又回頭單獨去看每一個問題。I think that we shouldnt give up. 我想我們不應(yīng)該放棄。I think that we should stick to the intuition that brought us to realize that we must use the system approach. 我想我們應(yīng)堅持直覺，它讓我們了解到必須使用系統(tǒng)方式Why do we claim that we must use the system approach? 為甚么我們必須要采用系統(tǒng)方式呢？Because intuitively we are aware that if you do something in one function, it does have ramifications on the other functions. 因為我們直覺地了解到，如果你在某一功能做某些事，它的確會衍生到其它功能上。And something that might look good locally, might have very negative ramifications elsewhere. 有些局部看來好的事情，可能在別的地方造成負(fù)面的枝節(jié)。Which means we are aware of the fact that there are cause effect relationships, which are crossing between functions, that the cause in one department can cause effects in another department. 這意謂著我們了解到在功能之間有因果關(guān)系存在，一個部門的因會造成其它部門的果。If that is the case, why wont we try to build the cause-effect relationship before we have decided what should we do. Is it so difficult? 如果是這種情形，為什么我們不試著在要決定該怎么做之前先去建構(gòu)因果關(guān)系。這很困難嗎？Well, let me show you - it is very easy. 嗯，讓我來說明給你看，很容易的。More than that let me show you that such a cause and effect diagram, I call it a tree, a logical tree, is totally obvious to us, even though we might not be in this specific organization, still the cause and effect relationships are totally generic. 讓你看看這因果關(guān)系圖，我叫它作“樹”， “邏輯樹”，即使我們不在這個組織里，對我們來說其因果關(guān)系是完全一般化的。Let me show you an example of it. 讓我給你看一個例子。Since you are not going to be able to read it from the screen, open your books its on page number 4. 由于你無法從銀幕上看到它，請打開你書本的第四頁。And let me read it. 讓我讀給你聽。I will read it from the cause to the effect. 我將從原因讀到結(jié)果。In other words I will read it along the direction of the arrows. 換句話說，我將按照箭頭來讀。Of course, I will start at the bottom, I will start at the statement number 500. 當(dāng)然啦，我會從底下開始，我會從第500的句子開始。Now, the number itself does not have any meaning, except for when I am saying statement number 500 you know which statement I am about to read. 這里的數(shù)字本身并沒有什么意義，只是讓你知道當(dāng)我說到第500號的句子時，你曉得我將要念那里。For those of you whom it didnt help it is at the bottom left.如這還是不清楚，它就在左下方。Statement 500- for a long time tons per hour has been the prime operational measurement in the steel industry. 第500號句子，“長久以來，噸/小時是鋼鐵業(yè)的主要生產(chǎn)績效評估”。That is the fact about that industry. 那就是鋼鐵業(yè)的事實。But let me explain to you this fact. 讓我為你解釋這事實。What is written here is describing the reality that in every steel mill industry for the last 100 years the prime measurement was ton per hour. 這里所寫的是，過去一百年來，鋼鐵業(yè)是以噸/小時作為主要的績效評估。Every work center, every department, every plant is measured - how many tons per hour have you produced last shift, last day, last week, last month, last quarter, last year. 每一個工作中心，每一個部門，每一個工廠都用相同方法評估上一班，昨天，上星期，上個月，上一季，去年，你每小時生產(chǎn)了多少噸。And that is the prime measurement. 這就是主要的評估。What I mean by that? 我的意思是什么？Yes, there are many other measurements. 是的，還有很多別的評估方式。But if you met your quarter ton per hour you can get away with a murder, you didnt meet it nothing else matters. 但是，如果你達(dá)成你的季噸/小時，縱使犯了大錯也沒關(guān)系，如果你沒達(dá)成，那其它的也不重要了。That is the meaning of prime measurement. 那就是主要評估的意義。And that is a fact. 而那是一個事實。Now lets combine it with another fact. 現(xiàn)在，讓我們把它和另一個事實相結(jié)合。510.510。If you look on it you will see that not surprising at all since we are dealing with organizations and organizations are built from people, at the bottom of a cause and effect tree you will always find some generic statement about behavior of people. 如果你看著它，你一點都不會感到驚訝。因為我們正在處理組織問題，而組織是由人所組成，在因果樹下面你會發(fā)現(xiàn)到有關(guān)人類行為的一般性描述。Now some people claim that you cannot make any generic statement about behavior of people. 有些人宣稱你無法對人類行為作任何一般性的敘述。I dont believe so. 我不認(rèn)為。And you will be the judge. 你來作裁判。 Lets read such a statement and you will tell me whether or not you agree. 讓我們讀這一段句子然后你告訴我你是否同意。510 reads most people behave in line with the way they are measured. 第510的句子寫道“多數(shù)人會依照績效評估的方式來決定他們的行為”。Do you agree? 你同意嗎？Absolutely. 絕對是。As a matter of fact the word most here is because some professors have told me that they found a person 5 years ago that 事實上這里用“多數(shù)”這個字是因為有些教授曾經(jīng)告訴我他們五年前發(fā)現(xiàn)有一個人Most means 99,99 - good enough. 多數(shù)的意思就是99.99，夠好的了。Now look what is happening? 現(xiàn)在來看看發(fā)生了什么事？What is the meaning of cause and effect? 什么是因和果？I will rely on the fact that you are human beings that you have already learned how to live in a society. 你是人類，你知道如何在社會中生存。And because of it all the cause and effects governing organization, no matter which one, you know. 因此，因果主宰組織，不管它是哪一個，你知道的。And now to prove it, what I will do is, I will use the traditional way in physics, which is if that is a fact based on the known cause and effect, this must be the unavoidable result. 我將使用物理學(xué)上的傳統(tǒng)方式來證明，如果因果關(guān)系是存在的，這必是不可避免的結(jié)果。In other words, I will do a prediction. 換句話說，我要做推論。 Lets do such a prediction, in other words I will read now the triangle. 讓我們做這樣的推論，換句話說，我現(xiàn)在要讀此三角因果關(guān)系。If 500 exists and 510 exists, then unavoidably 515 must exist. 如果500存在，510也存在，不可避免的515必會存在。Lets read it and lets see whether or not your intuition, your experience will confirm that logic. 我們來讀它，并看看你的直覺，經(jīng)驗，是否同意這邏輯。If we agree that for a long time ton per hour has been the prime operational measurement in the steel industry, and we also agree that most people behave in line with the way they are measured, then unavoidably what we must find in the steel industry is that departments do try to maximize their performance as measured by ton per hour. 如果我們同意長久以來噸/小時是鋼鐵業(yè)的主要生產(chǎn)績效評估，同時我們也同意多數(shù)人們依據(jù)被評估的方式來表現(xiàn)，不可避免的我們會發(fā)現(xiàn)鋼鐵業(yè)的生產(chǎn)部門的確會設(shè)法提高噸/小時績效。Do you agree? 你同意嗎？Do you see what is meaning of common sense? 你了解常識的意義嗎？Common sense has nothing to do with whether or not it is common. 常識跟它是否很普通并沒有關(guān)系。It has to do whether or not the logic is rigorous and the cause and effect relationships are known. 和邏輯是否嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)與因果關(guān)系是否已知有關(guān)。That is the meaning of common sense.那就是常識的意義。Now lets see where it will lead us. 讓我們看結(jié)果會怎樣。Lets put some more facts about the steel industry. 讓我們再為鋼鐵業(yè)增添一些事實。For example, fact number 520. 舉例來說，事實第520。Which reads in most departments in the steel industry some items require less time per ton than others. 它寫著“在鋼鐵業(yè)里多數(shù)部門有些項目每噸生產(chǎn)的時間比其它項目少”。What I mean by that is the following, for example, the molten white, red, hot steel is coming from the furnace, we want to make plates out of it. 我的意思如下，熔鋼由高溫爐流出，我們要把它壓制成鋼板。So we will streamline this molten steel into a department where there are huge rolls that are squeezing the steel into a plate. 所以我們將熔鋼導(dǎo)入到壓鑄部門，在那里有巨大的滾輪將熔鋼擠壓成板狀鋼板。Now imagine that we want to do 2 inch plate, then we have to squeeze the steel until it is 2 inches. 現(xiàn)在假設(shè)我們想要生產(chǎn)2英吋鋼板，我們必須將它擠壓成2英吋。On the other hand we might want 1 inch plate, then we have to squeeze it some more. 另一方面我們可能想要1英吋鋼板，那么我們必須將它再進(jìn)一步擠壓。If I am measuring by ton per hour, when do I get more ton per hour when I am producing 2 inch plates or when I am producing half an inch plates? 如果我是被以噸/小時來評估，我要怎么樣才能得到較多的噸/小時？是生產(chǎn)兩英吋鋼板？還是生產(chǎn)一英吋鋼板？You dont have to be a genius to answer that, right? 你不是天才也能回答這個問題，對吧？This is the same thing that happens in every department and this is the base to my statement, my observation here about reality that in most departments some items take much less time than others. 每一部