iddri 20080416-mem workshop on sectoral approaches5-080416_pre-mem-workshop_baron

1、Sectoral approaches to greenhouse gas mitigationMandatory transnational agreementsPre-Major Economies Meeting Workshop on sectoral approaches 16 April 2008Richard Baron IEADisclaimer The views expressed here are the authorsand may not reflect the views of the individual IEA Member countries. OECD/IE

2、A - 2007What is meant by“sectoral approaches”Technology focusAsia-Pacific PartnershipEC / car manufacturers associations (public-private)Aluminium: IAI Cement: WBCSD-CSI Iron and steel: IISI (private sector) OECD/IEA - 2007UNFCCC(intergovernmental) “Cooperative sectoral approaches and sector-specifi

3、c actions, in order to enhance implementation of Article 4.1(c) of the Convention” Bali A.P.International sectoral approaches Why focus on sectors? Why at international level?n Identify sectors with rapidly rising emissions and lock-in problemsn Gather a critical mass for better coordination, market

4、 transformationn Enhance effectiveness of domestic policiesAddress competitiveness and carbon leakage concerns in certain activitiesSector-level analyses reveal win-win opportunitiesand domestic capability for significant improvements*Bodansky, 2007, International sectoral agreements in a post-2012

5、climate framework. Pew Center on Global Climate Change OECD/IEA - 2007Industrial output growth: 1981-2005 Main products / world regions1 80018Aluminium1 60016Crude steel1 400141 20012Chemical feedstocks1 0001080086006Paper and paperboard4004Wood200200Energy19812005198120051981200519812005North Ameri

6、caChinaSouth AsiaEuropeSource: IEA, 2007, Energy use in the new millennium. OECD/IEA - 2007Materials production (Mt/yr)Energy needs for materials production (EJ/yr)CementExample: CO2 per tonne of cementCountry averagesChina1.10IndiaNational circumstances:USA1.00 Canada Fuel mix in powergenerationMex

7、ico0.90 Clinker-to-cementGermanyratio0.80 Raw materials andJapansubstitutesItaly Energy prices0.70SpainHow would a carbonBrazil0.60cost affect the sectorsKoreamitigation potential?Weighted Average0.5019901992199419961998200020022004IEA (2007) Tracking industrial energy efficiency and CO2 emissions.

8、OECD/IEA - 2007kg CO2/kg of cement Industry-led initiatives:Examples in heavy industry sectors International Aluminium Instituten Reduction of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) and energy efficiency efforts International Iron and Steel Instituten Gather data on energy and CO2 performancen Funding R&D towards

9、breakthrough technology Cement Sustainability Initiative (WBCSD)n Performance data, towards regional benchmarks Limits of industry federations?n Suspicions of anti-trust?n Cannot bind their membersn Develop cleaner technology. How to bring it to market?n Focus on performance improvements in growth s

10、cenariosCarbon cost? OECD/IEA - 2007International, quantitativesectoral approaches (1) A group of countries could agree on coordinating action in specific sectors Quantitative emission objectives based on national circumstancesn Objectives in terms of intensity (x tCO2eq/ t of output) or absolute em

11、ission levels (with flexibility)n Binding, or non-binding Commitments on the diffusion of a given best practice technologyn Caveat: cost? Freezing innovation? OECD/IEA - 2007International, quantitativesectoral approaches (2)zGovernments must play theirpartDiscourage free-ridingDomestic-level monitor

12、ing, reporting, verification and enforcement of agreed objectivesPossibility to rely on flexibility mechanismsProvide international least-cost options for compliance including outside the sectorTransactionsmustberecordedbygovernments OECD/IEA - 2007International sectoral approachesChallengeszInstitu

13、tionalcapacityComparable dataMonitoring implementationAssess data availability define policy perimeter to maximise effectivenesszAddressing possible carbonPromotion of best practiceleakage?Lower emission increases ifrelocationIncentives: GHG creditinM+)Further deteriorates competitive position const

14、rained sourceszConsider crediting for sectors w/o competitiveness concerns: electricity? OECD/IEA - 2007ofIn summaryzInternational quantitative sectoral - Eforts underwayFrom industry-led to public-private (APP) and intergovernmental (EU ETS)Critical mass in a few countries / companieszInternational comparisonsreveal low-cost mitigation potentials national circumstances matterzIndustry cannot do it aloneGovernments to set rules and act as