XXXX年加拿大油菜生產(chǎn)與產(chǎn)量分析

1、2010 Canola Production Outlook2010年加拿大油菜生產(chǎn)與產(chǎn)量分析March, 20102010年3月Jingzhou, China中國(guó)荊州 Ruojun WangChina Feed Industry Consultant中國(guó)飼料工業(yè)顧問 Canola Council of Canada加拿大雙低油菜理事會(huì)The Canadian Canola Industry is加拿大雙低油菜籽行業(yè)Innovative.革故鼎新Resilient.靈活應(yīng)變Determined to create superior value and a healthier world.立志創(chuàng)

2、造卓越價(jià)值和更加健康的世界。World Vegetable Oil Usage全世界植物油的使用Canola is the third most widely used vegetable oil in the world.雙低菜籽油是世界上排名第三的使用最廣泛的植物油。椰子棕櫚大豆油菜籽葵花籽花生棉籽橄欖World Canola/Rapeseed Production (07-08)世界雙低油菜/油菜籽產(chǎn)量（07-08年）Canada is responsible for 75% of canola trade加拿大承擔(dān)了世界75%的雙低油菜籽貿(mào)易量。澳洲印度其他中國(guó)美國(guó)加拿大烏克蘭俄羅斯歐

3、盟27國(guó)南非Canola Facts雙低油菜籽簡(jiǎn)介 2nd largest crop in Canada 加拿大第二大農(nóng)作物 Most valuable cropping choice in Western Canada加拿大西部最有價(jià)值的種植選擇 Seed exports on the rise油菜籽出口增長(zhǎng) Domestic crush expanding國(guó)內(nèi)壓榨量增加 Canola the healthy oil雙低菜籽油健康的油Canola vs. Wheat雙低油菜籽 vs. 小麥草原農(nóng)場(chǎng)現(xiàn)金收入價(jià)值比較：小麥（硬粒小麥除外）vs. 雙低油菜籽（十萬美元） 雙底油菜籽 小麥 紅線（雙

4、低油菜） 藍(lán)線（小麥） Canadian Canola Situation 07/08-08/0907/08-08/09年加拿大雙低油菜籽概況 Production: 12.6 -12.643mln mt產(chǎn)量：1260-1264.3萬噸 Seed exports: 5.7 -7.9081mln mt油菜籽出口：570-790.81萬噸 Seed exports by destination:各目的地國(guó)油菜籽出口量： Japan (2.0-2.0656), Mexico (1.3-1.1625), China (0.7-2.8719), U.S.A. (0.9-0.764), Pakistan

5、(0.2-0.385), U.A.E. (0.3-0.5295)Bangladesh（0-0.1292）日本（200-206.56萬噸），墨西哥（130-116.25萬噸），中國(guó)（70-287.19萬噸），美國(guó)（90-76.4萬噸），巴基斯坦（20-38.5萬噸），阿聯(lián)酋（30-52.95萬噸），孟加拉國(guó)（0-12.92萬噸）Canadian Canola Situation 07/08-08/0907/08-08/09年加拿大雙低油菜籽概況 Crush: 4.1 -4.656mln mt seed 壓榨用量：410-465.6萬噸油菜籽Oil exports: 1.3 -1.5427mln

6、mt oil油出口量：130-154.27萬噸 US 0.9281-1.0297, China 0.249-0.3952 美國(guó)92.81-102.97萬噸，中國(guó)24.9-39.52萬噸 (香港地區(qū)18700-25300t、臺(tái)灣地區(qū)=12100-13000t，南韓=34100-36600t)Meal Exports 1.9-1.861 mlm mt meal油菜籽粕粉出口量：190-186.1萬噸 US 1.8-1.766 mlnt,Iceland10200t, Mexico78300t， ChineseTaiwan2300t 美國(guó)180-176.6萬噸，冰島10200噸，墨西哥78300噸，中

7、國(guó)臺(tái)灣地區(qū)2300噸， 中國(guó)大陸過去無進(jìn)口，2009-2010會(huì)有一些嘗試性的大量進(jìn)口Canola Supply/Disposition雙低油菜籽供應(yīng)/處理Production years 年份年份Production產(chǎn)量產(chǎn)量Exports出口出口Crush壓榨壓榨加拿大雙低菜籽生產(chǎn)預(yù)期For 2009-10, exports are projected to be the second highest on record, although down12% from the record set in 2008-09.2009-1010作物年度，出口將是歷史上的次高記錄，比2008-2009

8、年度的最高記錄會(huì)低12%Domestic crush is forecast to rise due to increased domestic crushing capacity.因?yàn)閲?guó)內(nèi)壓榨能力的擴(kuò)大，國(guó)內(nèi)壓制預(yù)期會(huì)增加Carry-out stocks are forecast to be similar to the previous year, with the average pricedown more than 10%.期末庫(kù)存與上一年度相似，但平均價(jià)格會(huì)降低10%For 2010-11, seeded area is projected to increase from 200

9、9-10, but production and supply are forecast to decline marginally due to lower yields.2010-2011年度，與2009-2010年度相比，種植面積會(huì)增加，但產(chǎn)量和供應(yīng)因?yàn)閱萎a(chǎn)降低會(huì)略有降低 Domestic crush is forecast to rise to a record 5.5 Mt due to expanded crush capacity and increased demand for oil and meal. 因國(guó)內(nèi)壓榨能力以及對(duì)菜粕和菜油需求的增加，國(guó)內(nèi)壓榨預(yù)計(jì)增加到550萬噸的

10、歷史水平Exports are expected to decline due to increased domestic use. Carry-out stocks are forecast to decline significantly因國(guó)內(nèi)使用數(shù)量增加，出口量預(yù)計(jì)降低，期末庫(kù)存預(yù)計(jì)大幅降低. Prices are expected to decline slightly due to weaker world vegoil prices.因世界植物油價(jià)格偏弱，價(jià)格預(yù)計(jì)稍有降低加拿大菜籽出口歷史Seed Exports (Historic)Canadian Canola Seed Exp

11、ortsCrop Year - August 1st to July 31stSource: Cereals & Oilseeds Review - Statistics Canada & Canadian Grain Commission(000 Tonnes) 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 Bangladesh - - - 13.3 11.3 6.1 103.4 94.4 95.7 129.2 China 1211.1 1889.6 213.5 - 401.1 275.0 614.4

12、873.4 659.3 2871.9 Europe 0.5 - 2.1 1.2 7.6 0.2 - - - - Japan1800.8 1874.0 1589.5 1562.0 1675.0 1746.0 1957.8 1960.8 2084.4 2065.6 Mexico 570.1 846.0 631.1 450.4 1067.8 944.1 1273.9 899.7 1278.4 1162.5 Pakistan - - - 172.7 274.2 4.0 590.1 548.8 222.8 385.0 Turkey - - - - - - 53.9 28.9 51.9 U.A.E. -

13、- - - - - 181.6 281.7 347.9 529.9 U.S.A. 280.0 248.8 87.6 194.8 317.4 430.1 616.6 669.7 920.7 764.0 Others 21.8 - 7.9 173.9 - 10.9 19.8 77.3 - - TOTAL3885.0 4859.0 2524.0 2394.4 3754.4 3412.4 5411.5 5434.7 5661.1 7908.1Canola *100 Ha年度年度 種植種植 收獲收獲 產(chǎn)量產(chǎn)量 生產(chǎn)生產(chǎn) 進(jìn)口進(jìn)口 總供應(yīng)總供應(yīng) 出口出口 食品食品 飼料飼料 國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)內(nèi) 庫(kù)存庫(kù)存 價(jià)格價(jià)格

14、面積面積 面積面積 t/ha *1000 t 千噸千噸 $/T2007-2008 6,367 6,277 1.52 9,529 179 11,490 5,661 4,144 108 4,301 1,528 5532008-2009f 6,540 6,494 1.95 12,643 90 14,260 7,000 4,275 340 4,660 2,600 450-5002008-2009 6,540 6,494 1.95 12,643 121 14,225 7,908 4,280 329 4,656 1,661 4672009-2010f 6,066 5,975 1.70 10,150 200

15、 12,950 6,500 5,500 303 5,850 600 450-550 09J2009-2010f 6,556 6,105 1.94 11,825 150 13,636 7,000 4,500 436 4,986 1,650 390-440 10M 2010-2011f 6,800 6,680 1.74 11,600 125 13,375 6,500 5,500 427 5,975 900 350-450作物年度為8月到來年7月黑脛病事件的現(xiàn)況1- China issued a quarantine order in November 2009 for canola imports

16、 requiring that they must be free of stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans) which has not been reported in China. 中國(guó)政府2009年11月就雙低菜籽的進(jìn)口頒布檢疫法令，要求不含有國(guó)內(nèi)未報(bào)告的黑莖病病菌（ Leptosphaeria maculans ,僅報(bào)道有弱毒種Leptosphaeria biglobosa，無強(qiáng)毒種L. maculans ，劉勝毅等2007）2 - For the 2009 crop, China agreed to a “transition” year whi

17、ch allows canola shipments that are positive for L. maculans to discharge at crushing plants in non-rapeseed growing zones where there is no risk of blackleg entering the Chinese rapeseed. In rapeseed growing zones only canola shipments that test negative for L. maculans are allowed to discharge at

18、CIQ approved plants. 對(duì)于2009年度生產(chǎn)的雙低菜籽，中國(guó)同意作為過渡年，允許Leptosphaeria maculans 檢測(cè)陽性的雙低菜籽貨物在黑莖病不會(huì)造成中國(guó)油菜染病風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的非油菜產(chǎn)區(qū)的壓榨廠卸貨。而在油菜生產(chǎn)區(qū)，僅允許在經(jīng)CIQ許可的壓榨廠卸載Leptosphaeria maculans 檢測(cè)陰性的雙低菜籽貨物。 黑脛病事件的現(xiàn)況3. Canada has L. maculans in canola, but management practices and resistant varieties keep this plant disease at very lo

19、w levels and crop losses rarely occur. Over the last ten years Canada has sent over 10 million tonnes of canola to China and there are no reports of L. maculans in Chinese rapeseed. In addition, the seed exported to China is crushed. This means the seed is no longer viable and the crushing temperatu

20、res will also destroy any of the L. maculans on the seed. Therefore there is negligible risk to the Chinese rapeseed crop. 加拿大雙低菜籽中有Leptosphaeria maculans ，但通過管理措施及抗性品種確保此植物病害在最低水平且罕見減產(chǎn)問題。在過去10年里，加拿大想中國(guó)出口1000萬噸雙低菜籽，而在中國(guó)油菜尚未報(bào)告Leptosphaeria maculans引起的黑脛病。另外出口的菜籽僅用于壓榨目的，通過壓榨滅活而壓榨溫度會(huì)種子中存在的任何Leptosphaer

21、ia maculans并菌，所以對(duì)中國(guó)油菜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)甚微。4. Canada and China are continuing discussions on this issue to ensure that canola trade continues while protecting the Chinese rapeseed crop. We need to look at a risk based approach which would minimize the risk to China. Some of the factors that should be considered are

22、 the distance to rapeseed fields, direct transfer from the vessel to the crushing plant and storage and good sanitary practises around crushing plants. Under these circumstances the risk to Chinese rapeseed would be negligible.加拿大和中國(guó)對(duì)此事?lián)枭陶?，確保雙低菜籽貿(mào)易持續(xù)以及保護(hù)中國(guó)油菜生產(chǎn)。我們需要尋找以風(fēng)險(xiǎn)為基礎(chǔ)的措施最大限度地減少對(duì)中國(guó)油菜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。可以考慮的一些

23、因素包括：距離油菜田的距離；直接將菜籽從船舶卸載到壓榨廠；壓榨廠周邊采取良好的衛(wèi)生措施。在采取上述措施情況下， Leptosphaeria maculans造成中國(guó)油菜發(fā)生黑脛病的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)甚微。5. Canada is interested in conducting research projects in both China and Canada to further understand L. maculans and the risk to Chinese rapeseed and will be discussing potential projects with the Oil Cr

24、ops Institute of CAAS in early April.加拿大希望在中國(guó)和加拿大進(jìn)一步了解Leptosphaeria maculans及其對(duì)中國(guó)油菜的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行研究，在4月上旬與中國(guó)農(nóng)科院油料作物研究所就可能的研究項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行商談。黑脛病事件的現(xiàn)況Since November 15, 2009, limited deliveries have resumed, utilizing the two crushing locations approved by China to receive blackleg-positive canola.自2009年11月15日以來，雙低菜籽向中

25、國(guó)的交運(yùn)數(shù)量恢復(fù)有限，目前中國(guó)有兩個(gè)可以接受黑脛病陽性貨物的壓榨廠For the 2009-10, crop year to date (August 1, 2009 - January 31, 2010), Canada shipped 1.2 million tonnes of canola to China. Of this amount, over 1 million tonnes was delivered prior to the November 15 quarantine order. 2009-2010年度截止目前（2009年8月1日起），加拿大出口中國(guó)菜籽約125萬噸，其中

26、超過100萬噸是11月15日新建議令發(fā)布之前發(fā)貨的Since November 15, exporters have delivered volumes which were delayed when the quarantine order was put in place. This volume was contracted prior to November 15th As the remaining deferred volumes are delivered, exporters will look to conduct new business with China.11月15日

27、以來，出口商交運(yùn)了因檢疫發(fā)布所推遲的發(fā)貨。這些貨物是在11月15日前簽訂的合同。鑒于剩余合同已交運(yùn)，出口商與中國(guó)會(huì)達(dá)成新的商務(wù)交易Canola vs. Rapeseed雙低油菜籽vs.普通油菜籽 Canola Definition 雙低油菜籽定義 Less than 2% erucic acid in the oil 雙低油菜籽油中芥酸含量低于2%- Less than 12 micromoles glucosinolates in the meal- 雙低油菜籽粕粉中硫甙含量低于12mol/gCanola oil is gaining acceptance雙低菜籽油得到越來越多的認(rèn)可Ming

28、 Tsai:“Canola Oil is extremely versatile. Its light texture and high heat tolerance make it an ideal kitchen staple”.廚師Ming Tsai說：“雙低菜籽油用途非常廣泛，它質(zhì)地輕，耐高溫，是理想的廚房必備品。”FDA Health Claim approved October 6, 20062006年10月6日批準(zhǔn)的FDA健康聲明“Limited and not conclusive scientific evidence suggests that eating about 1

29、 1/2 tablespoons (19 grams) of canola oil daily may reduce the risk of coronary heart disease due to the unsaturated fat content in canola oil. To achieve this possible benefit, canola oil is to replace a similar amount of saturated fat and not increase the total number of calories you eat in a day.

30、 One serving of this product contains x grams of canola oil.” “有限且不確鑿的科學(xué)證據(jù)表明每天食用約一勺半（19克）雙低菜籽油可以降低患冠心病的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，因?yàn)槠渲泻胁伙柡椭境煞?。為了獲得這種可能存在的益處，可以用雙低菜籽油代替等量的飽和脂肪而不增加一天當(dāng)中攝入的卡路里總量。本產(chǎn)品每份含有x克雙低菜籽油?！盕uture looks very bright!未來前景光明！2015 Plan2015年計(jì)劃ElementElement內(nèi)容內(nèi)容2006 2006 2015 Target2015 Target20152015年目標(biāo)年目標(biāo)Prod

31、uction產(chǎn)量Acres耕地Yield每英畝產(chǎn)量9.1 million tonnes 910萬噸13 million1300萬噸32 bu/acre32蒲式耳/英畝15 million tonnes1500萬噸30% increase (17 million)增加30%（1700萬英畝）35% increase (40.5 bu/acre)增加35%（40.5蒲式耳/英畝）Oil content含油量42.5% average平均42.5%45% average平均45%Classic to計(jì)劃與完 Designer 成比率Ratio90/1075/25Meal菜籽粕2000 kcals/k

32、g 2000千卡/公斤energy content(poultry)能量含量（家禽飼料）10% increase 增加10%(90% of soybean meal energy level)相當(dāng)于豆粕能量水平的90%2015 Plan: Exports and Crush2015年計(jì)劃：出口和壓榨ElementElement 內(nèi)容內(nèi)容2006 2006 2015 Target2015 Target20152015年目標(biāo)年目標(biāo)Export Seed出口油菜籽Japan日本Mexico墨西哥US美國(guó)EU歐盟Other (Pakistan, China, etc.)其他（巴基斯坦，中國(guó)等） 5.2

33、 million tonnes 520萬噸 2.00 million tonnes200萬噸1.20 million tonnes120萬噸0.50 million tonnes 50萬噸0.00 million tonnes 01.50 million tonnes 150萬噸7.5 million tonnes750萬噸2.00 million tonnes200萬噸1.50 million tonnes150萬噸1.00 million tonnes100萬噸1.00 million tonnes100萬噸2.00 million tonnes200萬噸Domestic Crush國(guó)內(nèi)壓

34、榨 Biodiesel (domestic) 生物柴油（國(guó)內(nèi)）Biodiesel (export oil) 生物柴油（出口） Food (domestic & export)食品（國(guó)內(nèi)&出口）3.7 million tonnes370萬噸0.05 million tonnes5萬噸0.25 million tonnes25萬噸3.40 million tonnes340萬噸7.5 million tonnes750萬噸2.00 million tonnes200萬噸0.50 million tonnes50萬噸5.00 million tonnes500萬噸Challenges

35、問題與挑戰(zhàn)What we need to achieve our 2015 goals:為實(shí)現(xiàn)2015年目標(biāo)我們需要：Continued investment by the grain companies to handle canola efficiently谷物公司繼續(xù)投資以高效處理雙低油菜籽Larger domestic crushing capacity更大的國(guó)內(nèi)壓榨能力Life science companies to invest in better quality seeds and crop inputs生命科學(xué)公司投資研發(fā)更優(yōu)質(zhì)的油菜籽和農(nóng)作物投入Research on he

36、alth benefits of canola開展關(guān)于雙低油菜籽有益健康的研究Improved meal quality - energy content for poultry改善菜籽粕品質(zhì)提高家禽飼料中的能量含量Yields are Improving產(chǎn)量提高Better varieties. Better quality of seed.品種更多，質(zhì)量更好的油菜籽。Increasing Crush Capacity in Canada加拿大壓榨能力增長(zhǎng) Increasing capacity from 4.4 mln MT to 6.6 mln MT 壓榨能力由440萬噸增長(zhǎng)至660萬噸

37、 Three more crushing plants being built in Saskatchewan 薩斯喀徹溫省新建了三座壓榨廠Research on Human Health人類健康研究Canola Product Research Fund卡諾拉產(chǎn)品研究基金卡諾拉產(chǎn)品研究基金 Inflammation 各種炎癥 Insulin resistance 胰島素抵抗 Glycemic index 升糖指數(shù)Increase Meal Consumption增加菜籽粕粉消費(fèi)量2009 Year of the Ox = Year of Canola Meal2009牛年，就是雙低油菜籽粕粉

38、之年。ONE MORE LITREperperCOWDAY每頭牛每天多產(chǎn)1升奶U.S. States using Canadian Canola Meal (35,000t) in 2007/0807/08年美國(guó)使用加拿大雙低油菜籽粕粉情況（多于35000噸）Ag Commodity Research 2008262728293031320905101010201105111511251203SBMCanola Meal擠奶日期乳產(chǎn)量, kg/d始始圖. 1 用含加拿大雙低菜粕和豆粕 TMR飼養(yǎng)奶牛的產(chǎn)奶量變化王若軍等2007，北京三元綠荷內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué) 田豐 閻素梅，2009 1.瘤胃降解率的試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明，加拿大雙低油菜籽粕的蛋白質(zhì)和干物質(zhì)在瘤胃內(nèi)的有效降解率分別為59.06%、55.17%。 2.瘤胃發(fā)酵的試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明，在高蛋白（10.5）和低蛋白（8.5）日糧條件下用加拿大雙低油菜籽粕替代豆粕、棉籽粕，對(duì)奶牛瘤胃液pH值、BCP含量和VFA含量均無顯著的影響；對(duì)瘤胃氨氮濃度有顯著(P0.05)或趨于顯著(P0.05)，與對(duì)照組相比，菜籽粕組的平均乳脂量、乳蛋白量顯著增加(P0.05)。 4.低蛋白日糧的飼養(yǎng)試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明，在日糧中蛋白含量為12.5時(shí)，用2.5加拿大雙低油菜籽