建筑電氣畢業(yè)設(shè)計(jì)外文翻譯及譯文

1、附錄一:中文譯文消防系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性的估計(jì)在過去的三年中,美國國家標(biāo)準(zhǔn)技術(shù)研究所(NIST已經(jīng)在研究開發(fā)一種新的加密標(biāo)準(zhǔn),以確保政府的信息安全。該組織目前正處于為新的先進(jìn)加密標(biāo)準(zhǔn)(AES選擇一個或幾個算法或數(shù)據(jù)打亂公式的開放過程的最后階段,并計(jì)劃在夏末或秋初作出決定。此標(biāo)準(zhǔn)內(nèi)定明年實(shí)施。Richard W.Bukowski:體育,高級工程師,瑟斯堡建筑及消防研究實(shí)驗(yàn)室的MST,美國醫(yī)學(xué)博士20899-8642;Edward K.Budnick:體育,巴爾的摩休斯聯(lián)合公司副總裁,美國醫(yī)學(xué)博士21227-1652;Christopher F.Scheme1,克里斯托弗計(jì)劃1,巴爾的摩休斯聯(lián)合公司化學(xué)

2、工程師、美國醫(yī)學(xué)博士21227-1652;前言背景資料:為執(zhí)行特定功能而設(shè)計(jì)和安裝的美國消防計(jì)劃。例如,自動噴水滅火系統(tǒng)目的在于控制或撲滅火災(zāi)。為此:自動滅火系統(tǒng)必須長開,即能滿足火災(zāi)地所需水量達(dá)到控制或消滅火災(zāi),火災(zāi)探測系統(tǒng)是為了盡早提供火災(zāi)預(yù)警通報(bào)來通知樓內(nèi)人員安全逃生,并提供消防通知,使其他的消防組成部分開啟(例如,特殊滅火系統(tǒng)、排煙系統(tǒng)。兩種消防系統(tǒng)啟動(檢測和(警報(bào)必須達(dá)到盡早報(bào)警。建筑防火墻的一般設(shè)計(jì)目的為:限制火災(zāi)蔓延的程度和保持建筑物的結(jié)構(gòu)的完整,以及在火災(zāi)發(fā)生時保護(hù)逃生路線的安全性。為了做到這一點(diǎn),特殊的消防系統(tǒng)必須按標(biāo)準(zhǔn)測試及保持特殊消防系統(tǒng)完整性的特點(diǎn).。消防系統(tǒng)的組成部

3、分如探測系統(tǒng)、自動滅火系統(tǒng)、防火墻的可靠性,在于提高基于設(shè)計(jì)基礎(chǔ)上的聯(lián)合演習(xí)的細(xì)節(jié)分析的投入。在安全系統(tǒng)方面,有幾個可靠性要素包括有效和能使用的可靠性,運(yùn)行可靠性能提供一定程度的概率,即消防系統(tǒng)在需要時運(yùn)行。運(yùn)行可靠性能在特定的火災(zāi)情況下利用起特點(diǎn)成功完成起任務(wù)的一種檢測手段。前者是系統(tǒng)組成和可靠性的評估,而后者是系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)適宜性的評估。這項(xiàng)研究的范圍僅限于運(yùn)行可靠性的評估,其主要原因是在于來自文獻(xiàn)資料內(nèi)容的可靠性。除了這項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)區(qū)分可靠性和性能,無條件評估的可靠性和故障估計(jì)的研究范圍也會在失控的火災(zāi)中列出。在該文件的后面將會提供這些條款的討論。研究范圍:這份文件中提供了關(guān)于(1火災(zāi)探測(2有限范

4、圍內(nèi)的自動滅火(3防火墻的運(yùn)行可靠性和執(zhí)行可靠性的一些觀點(diǎn)。一般而言,火災(zāi)檢測的可靠性大都在于煙氣檢測或火災(zāi)報(bào)警系統(tǒng)。自動噴頭構(gòu)成了大部分的自動滅火的數(shù)據(jù),防火墻包括分區(qū)防火和圍墻的完整性。應(yīng)當(dāng)指出,在某些情況下,該文獻(xiàn)不會超出一般"火災(zāi)探測"或"自動滅火"的范疇和要求假設(shè)具體類型消防系統(tǒng).幾項(xiàng)研究報(bào)告估計(jì)了火災(zāi)探測的可靠性和自動滅火系統(tǒng)計(jì)劃。然而,對被動防火系統(tǒng)如防火分區(qū)的詳細(xì)評估很少被發(fā)現(xiàn),如根據(jù)有限的統(tǒng)計(jì)資料經(jīng)分析后,被用來歸納包括評估和不確定的關(guān)聯(lián)性等信息。后者的作用僅限于文獻(xiàn)資料在檢測和滅火時的評估。防火分區(qū)的可靠性也包括與之關(guān)聯(lián)的不可靠數(shù)據(jù)。

5、這份報(bào)告列出了與放火系統(tǒng)相關(guān)的可靠性原理。為了回顧分析和重要發(fā)展以及數(shù)據(jù)概括,在文獻(xiàn)檢索時被完成。該文獻(xiàn)中適用于噴頭、煙霧偵測系統(tǒng)可靠性的數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)被分析篩選。這些數(shù)據(jù)是描述防火系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性在均值和95%的置信區(qū)間時的可靠性。可靠性分析的原理在文獻(xiàn)中的數(shù)據(jù)可靠性和相關(guān)分析上有很大的變化?；旧?可靠性是一種概率的估計(jì),即一個系統(tǒng)或其組成部分在一定時間內(nèi)按照設(shè)計(jì)正常運(yùn)行,其組成部分在正常運(yùn)行或預(yù)期壽命的時間中。這一時期是“改寫”的一個組成部分,是每次測試都發(fā)現(xiàn)是運(yùn)行正常的一個時。因此,系統(tǒng)及其組成部件越經(jīng)常測試和維修保養(yǎng),他們就越為可靠。這種形式的可靠性就叫做無條件。系統(tǒng)正常運(yùn)行的可靠性是無條件

6、的概率的估計(jì)。有條件的可靠性是對所提及的兩件事情的估計(jì),即發(fā)生火災(zāi)和消防系統(tǒng)成功運(yùn)行在同一個時間內(nèi)發(fā)生?？煽啃怨烙?jì)并不認(rèn)為火災(zāi)發(fā)生的幾率是無條件的估計(jì)。涉及到運(yùn)行可靠性的其他兩個重要概念是安全故障和危險故障。無火災(zāi)發(fā)生時,消防系統(tǒng)卻運(yùn)行叫做安全故障。一個常見的例子就是一個煙霧探測器的假報(bào)警現(xiàn)象。發(fā)生火災(zāi)時而消防系統(tǒng)卻不起作用,這叫做危險故障。在這項(xiàng)研究中不能有效使用的概率(1-可靠性估計(jì)稱為危險故障?；馂?zāi)期間自噴系統(tǒng)不能運(yùn)行或者運(yùn)行系統(tǒng)不能控制或撲滅火災(zāi)都是這種類型的失誤。整個系統(tǒng)的可靠性取決于各個組成部分的可靠性及其相應(yīng)的失敗率,系統(tǒng)組成部分的相互依存性,安裝后系統(tǒng)及其組成部分在維修和測試時

7、所出拒的評估?？紤]到關(guān)鍵的可靠性時也涉及到消防系統(tǒng)的性能。系統(tǒng)性能被定義為某一特定系統(tǒng)的能力,為完成其設(shè)計(jì)安裝的任務(wù)。例如:被評估為性能分離的系統(tǒng),是基于在火災(zāi)期間各個組成部分在保持建筑物的構(gòu)造和防止火災(zāi)蔓延時的作用。系統(tǒng)性能根據(jù)其各個組件控制火災(zāi)蔓延的程度來界定。性能可靠性評估所需要的數(shù)據(jù)在于,消防系統(tǒng)在一般和大規(guī)?；馂?zāi)情況下完成設(shè)計(jì)目的的程度,性能可靠性的數(shù)據(jù)通過復(fù)檢這些數(shù)據(jù)的來源。因?yàn)檫@些作用取決于顯示數(shù)據(jù)的內(nèi)容,因此,這不是某單方面的作用。各種類型系統(tǒng)失敗的原因通常分為幾大類:安裝錯誤,設(shè)計(jì)錯誤,制造/設(shè)備缺陷,缺乏保養(yǎng),超過設(shè)計(jì)限額和環(huán)境因素,有幾種方法可以利用以減少失敗的概率,這些

8、方法包括:(1冗余設(shè)計(jì),(2積極監(jiān)測故障,(3提供最簡單的系統(tǒng)(即最少的部件為解決危險,以及(4一個設(shè)計(jì)檢驗(yàn)、測試、維修計(jì)劃。這些運(yùn)行可靠性的概念都是重要的,當(dāng)運(yùn)行可靠性評估在溫憲忠報(bào)道時,因?yàn)樵谀骋环治鲋杏玫降馁Y料,可靠性評估可能用到一個或多個上述概念,在這一范圍內(nèi)閱讀這一文獻(xiàn)時可酌情處理,大部分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)是從支持這份論文的文獻(xiàn)中獲取得,這些文獻(xiàn)卻符合在無條件運(yùn)行可靠性!文獻(xiàn)檢索文獻(xiàn)檢索是搜集各種類型消防系統(tǒng)可能性的數(shù)據(jù),這些數(shù)據(jù)被認(rèn)為與安全計(jì)劃有關(guān):自動滅火,自動檢測,和消防隔離。文獻(xiàn)檢索的目的是獲得特殊系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性評估,這些特殊系統(tǒng)中每一種類型的消防系統(tǒng)都為一般的居住物(如住宅,商業(yè)建筑和

9、公用建筑。信息來源包括全國火災(zāi)事故的數(shù)據(jù)資料,美國國防部安全記錄工業(yè)和住房的特殊研究,工業(yè)保險歷史記錄和檢查報(bào)告的公開文獻(xiàn)和試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)。試點(diǎn)工作和火災(zāi)測試結(jié)果的報(bào)告只有在火災(zāi)探測、自動滅火或者防火隔離計(jì)劃時被明確評價是被利用,測試系統(tǒng)用于資格核準(zhǔn)或列表,并且用于審查失效方式的資料,英國公布的數(shù)據(jù)也包括日本、澳大利亞和新西蘭在內(nèi)。常識多個基礎(chǔ)廣泛的研究報(bào)告指出,這份調(diào)查是關(guān)于火災(zāi)探測和滅火系統(tǒng)還有防火分區(qū)的可靠性。這些包括(1火災(zāi)研究1996托比在英國(2澳大利亞消防工程索引消防法改革中心、1996(3日本東京火災(zāi)統(tǒng)計(jì)匯編東京消防處、1997(四日本研究消防系統(tǒng)根源的成果渡邊1979。托比消防研究

10、所致力于解決消防系統(tǒng)的可靠性和各組成部分的相互作用。德爾菲方法是一種用來揭示各個組成部分單獨(dú)使用時的可靠性估計(jì)。組成部分包括:火災(zāi)探測、報(bào)警系統(tǒng)、滅火系統(tǒng)、自動排煙系統(tǒng)和被動防火(如防火隔離。澳大利亞消防工程指導(dǎo)守則提出了工程法規(guī)依據(jù)了新的工作標(biāo)準(zhǔn),即澳大利亞消防工程法規(guī)。在這個方法的指導(dǎo)下,為燃煙、燃燒但無火花的火焰、和燃燒又有火焰建立防火安全性能評估。消防系統(tǒng)的工作情況(即探測概率、滅火或控制火災(zāi)完全根據(jù)各個特殊系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性來預(yù)測。在這份指導(dǎo)手冊中可靠性評估來自一個專家小組而不是來自實(shí)際數(shù)據(jù)。最后,運(yùn)行可靠性的數(shù)據(jù)分別在日本被兩個不同的研究小組公布,一個研究小組涉及東京從1990-199

11、7年間的火災(zāi)事故評估東京消防處1997。另一個研究小組涉及日本全國從早期到1978年為止的火災(zāi)事故報(bào)告評估研究渡邊1979。表1概述了這些研究提供了可靠的估計(jì)。單獨(dú)的可靠性估計(jì)存在個別差異取決于這些估計(jì)所用的參數(shù)。因?yàn)橄老到y(tǒng)需要準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測未來的運(yùn)行性能,從這些研究上導(dǎo)致的可靠性變化,將引起結(jié)果的顯著改變。此外,不確定性伴隨著一種單一的可靠性評估或者在這些推導(dǎo)可靠性的方法中存在某種潛在的偏見,可能限制它們在消防系統(tǒng)中研究運(yùn)行可靠性或可靠性性能的指導(dǎo)作用。表1:消防系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性評估的公告(成功率 由于在一般的文獻(xiàn)中可靠性估計(jì)的使用性有限,審查文獻(xiàn)是擴(kuò)展了它的作用在(1建立一個完善的原理,該原理是

12、關(guān)于被認(rèn)為能影響可靠性的三種策略,并且(二確定并評價關(guān)系到單獨(dú)系統(tǒng)可操作性和故障率的一定數(shù)據(jù)。自動滅火系統(tǒng)(即灑水系統(tǒng)表2概述了一些研究報(bào)告估計(jì),評價實(shí)際火災(zāi)事故中自動灑水系統(tǒng)滅火的運(yùn)行可靠性。作為一個群體,這些研究報(bào)告差異很大,在時間周期、房屋類型和詳細(xì)程度關(guān)系到火災(zāi)的類型和灑水系統(tǒng)設(shè)計(jì)。表2所顯示的自噴系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性估計(jì)一般相對較高,而一些研究提出把火災(zāi)控制或火災(zāi)失效,作為可靠性評估的一部分,但該報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)卻并不一致。因此,運(yùn)行可靠性假定為限噴灑操作。評估也應(yīng)顯示價值范圍,暗示不宜使用一個自噴系統(tǒng)可靠性而不注意數(shù)據(jù)的偏差和一般的從不同數(shù)據(jù)庫不確定性數(shù)據(jù)源相結(jié)合。 原預(yù)算表2由可靠性估計(jì)范

13、圍由81.13%到99.5%泰勒maybee,marryat。81%的偏低價值與泰勒的研究中和一些被kook估計(jì)過高的(即87.6%的報(bào)告,這些出現(xiàn)重大偏差的數(shù)據(jù)在這些研究中使用。在這兩種研究中,發(fā)生火災(zāi)的次數(shù)十分少,并且在數(shù)據(jù)庫中不區(qū)分自動滅火系統(tǒng)和其他的滅火系統(tǒng)。最終maybee和marryat報(bào)告中的99.5%高估計(jì)反映了自噴系統(tǒng)在檢查、檢測和維修是嚴(yán)謹(jǐn)?shù)暮陀邪缚苫?。在自噴系統(tǒng)可取得的數(shù)據(jù)中,另一個重要的限制是大部分的自噴系統(tǒng)包括記載噴水的事故。在這些研究中,很有限的事故數(shù)據(jù)也參考了快速反應(yīng)或適宜的噴水技術(shù)。在評估適宜噴水系統(tǒng)的可靠性時應(yīng)特別關(guān)注幾個因素,包括(1允許復(fù)蓋范圍內(nèi)(2供水

14、能力較低(3在火災(zāi)中無遙控或警報(bào)系統(tǒng)的潛力很大?；诖?還有與這些技術(shù)(如維修水平相關(guān)的其他因素可以直接影響這些類型的自噴系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性。另外,還需要解決這些問題時的系統(tǒng)數(shù)據(jù),但基于后來的觀察和一般住宅一般不太可能保持正常,一些旨在保證住宅自噴系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性的東西可能被降低?；馂?zāi)探測或警報(bào)系統(tǒng)表3提供了一份關(guān)于用于住宅系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性分析的概述,評估包括平均可能性和95%的置信區(qū)間都是基于HALL1955提供的數(shù)據(jù)所預(yù)估的。平均可靠性估計(jì)的范圍從68%至88%不等。這些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)同托比德爾菲研究所所提供的可靠性數(shù)字相一致。然而,95%的置信區(qū)間的一般范圍為66%至90%。表3:煙霧探測器的可靠性分析

15、HALL,1955 防火分區(qū)依靠各種類型器材的功能例如:門(包括固定器材、墻壁、地板/天花板、滲透孔、玻璃窗、防火卷簾、防煙材料和建筑物。當(dāng)防火分區(qū)被認(rèn)為是防火計(jì)劃中的重點(diǎn)時,在文獻(xiàn)中有很少的數(shù)據(jù)認(rèn)為單個組成部分的運(yùn)行作用于防火分區(qū)。單個為建筑的評估和運(yùn)行可靠性在WARRIGTON的研究中和澳大利亞消防工程索引中被提到。但這些評估是完全基于專家的判斷。因此不會提供更加深入的分析。統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)和不可靠估計(jì)文獻(xiàn)資料概括了先前部分提供的描述自動噴水系統(tǒng)和火災(zāi)探測可靠性評估的信息和數(shù)據(jù)。自動噴水系統(tǒng)可靠性的數(shù)據(jù)有幾個出處,火災(zāi)探測的可靠性評估僅來自一個會議,HALL1944。這個會議包括十年(1983-1

16、992的可靠性評估和列出了在文獻(xiàn)中搜到的綜合可靠性研究。這份文件的最初一個目標(biāo)是提供一個關(guān)于所研究的系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性評估的預(yù)覽。為自噴系統(tǒng)和火災(zāi)探測,它基于現(xiàn)實(shí)數(shù)據(jù)做了一個統(tǒng)計(jì)分析。自動噴水系統(tǒng)分析表2中關(guān)于自動噴水系統(tǒng)可靠性分析,是根據(jù)每一種居住類型來分析的。應(yīng)當(dāng)指出,只有一個出處MILNE,1959提供了關(guān)于公共建筑和居住房屋的可靠性估計(jì),并且這些早期數(shù)據(jù)沒有提供現(xiàn)代住宅噴頭技術(shù)的可靠性數(shù)據(jù)。圖1的分布直方圖列出了每一個住宅類型的可靠性估計(jì)。平均值和95%的置信區(qū)間的限制是適合一般住宅(在研究中不區(qū)分商業(yè)建筑、住宅建筑和公共建筑的類別和商業(yè)建筑,并且適用于綜合樓(商業(yè)、公共建筑、住宅類的可靠

17、性評估。這些結(jié)果列在表4。 圖1:自動噴水系統(tǒng)對各種住宅類型的可靠性評估關(guān)于商業(yè)建筑和公共建筑可靠性評估的平均值控制在其他住宅類型的95%置信區(qū)間內(nèi)。適宜居住和公共建筑的單個點(diǎn)估計(jì),增加了一些與運(yùn)行可靠性有用的東西,也增加了數(shù)據(jù)庫的容量。用18估計(jì)四個獨(dú)立的門類。然而,關(guān)于住宅和公共建筑的點(diǎn)估計(jì)不應(yīng)單獨(dú)使用而作出任何結(jié)論。關(guān)于商業(yè)建筑、住宅和綜合建筑的可靠性估計(jì)提供了一些有用的信息?；趯娏芟到y(tǒng)分析的可利用數(shù)據(jù)是運(yùn)行的可靠性估計(jì)超過88%,如果不考慮商業(yè)建筑,噴淋系統(tǒng)的可靠性可達(dá)到92%以上。然而,判斷這種特殊的噴淋系統(tǒng)與那些評估中提到系統(tǒng)是否相似是十分重要的。商業(yè)建筑的的可靠性范圍在80%

18、至98%,而一般建筑的為94%至98%?；馂?zāi)探測系統(tǒng)分析關(guān)于火災(zāi)探測系統(tǒng)可靠性估計(jì)的數(shù)據(jù)是全面的。這份數(shù)據(jù)跨越了十年,并且每年都做可靠性評估報(bào)告(反映在表3,它為了各種不同用途的房屋而完成。這里的分析根據(jù)房屋的用途把它們分為幾個建筑等級。每種用途的房屋得出數(shù)據(jù)后,然后計(jì)算每種房屋的可靠性估計(jì)。圖2顯示了所有煙霧探測器關(guān)于全部住宅類型的可靠性估計(jì)。 圖2:煙霧探測器對各種住宅類型的可靠性估計(jì)如直方圖中所示,數(shù)據(jù)有一個雙態(tài)分布。因此,為了進(jìn)一步研究兩個平均值完全不同的數(shù)據(jù)庫,進(jìn)行了一個方差(變異數(shù)分析。變異數(shù)檢測了可靠性估計(jì)的平均值和對一個給定建筑類型的可靠性影響。圖形代表性的變異數(shù)以最小二乘法的

19、形式在圖3中體現(xiàn)。變異數(shù)影響最終結(jié)果。如圖3所示,三種住宅分類分別有不同的關(guān)于煙霧探測起的平均可靠性估計(jì)。圖4中包含的直方圖分別描述了每種住宅類型的可靠性估計(jì)。 圖3:煙霧探測系統(tǒng)對各種住宅類型的可靠性分析時變異數(shù)的影響這些住宅類型分別在平均可靠性估計(jì)和95%的置信區(qū)間估計(jì)內(nèi)進(jìn)行單獨(dú)分析。結(jié)果列于表5,每種類型的結(jié)果明顯不同。各種住宅類型的置信區(qū)間與自噴系統(tǒng)的可靠性估計(jì)時的置信區(qū)間不重疊。這就可能使有更多的數(shù)據(jù)用于煙霧探測器的分析,列于表5中各個住宅類型的煙霧探測器的可靠性估計(jì)完全不同,判斷非相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)差異的原因超出了這個分析的范圍。 分析中所用到的數(shù)據(jù)是在研究中描述為典型系統(tǒng)的,在公開文獻(xiàn)中關(guān)

20、于噴淋系統(tǒng)和煙霧探測器可靠性的最好數(shù)據(jù)。典型數(shù)據(jù)是一種重要的依據(jù),它用來判斷某種類型的信息是否達(dá)到這種類型的統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)分析。分析的結(jié)果應(yīng)該被用來做出推論,但必須在研究相關(guān)資料和測驗(yàn)它們對分析系統(tǒng)中使用的特殊安全計(jì)劃的適應(yīng)性以后。然而,總體的接近代表著在解決不同消防系統(tǒng)類別的可靠性時更高的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),包括注意報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)中的不確定性和偏差。 圖4:煙霧探測器對各種住宅類型的可靠性分析分配概要和結(jié)論一份詳細(xì)的文獻(xiàn)摘要和運(yùn)行可靠性分析被用來關(guān)注幾個消防計(jì)劃的運(yùn)行可靠性,消防計(jì)劃包括:火災(zāi)探測、自動噴水和防火分區(qū)。在這項(xiàng)研究中,運(yùn)行可靠性被定義為消防系統(tǒng)在需要時運(yùn)行的可靠性估計(jì)。這些出版物的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)不直接在評估中敘述不

21、確定性或偏差。關(guān)于防火分區(qū),在表1中的運(yùn)行可靠性概述是它的唯一信息。在試圖解決評估中的不確定性過程中,幾個火災(zāi)的實(shí)際細(xì)節(jié)研究,煙霧探測器和自動噴水系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行性能被重新分析,并且報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)被提取為一個更加條理的評價。沒有發(fā)現(xiàn)防火分區(qū)的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),這個評價包括利用常規(guī)統(tǒng)計(jì)方法來評價可靠性數(shù)據(jù)和運(yùn)行可靠性的平均估計(jì),還有運(yùn)行可靠性達(dá)到95%的置信區(qū)間范圍。表4和表5概括了這個分析的結(jié)果。測試結(jié)果顯示,使用單一標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來評估一個消防系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性是不恰當(dāng)?shù)?。例?在表4中對噴淋系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性評估,在商業(yè)建筑中范圍從88%至98%,同時平均估計(jì)為93%,人口數(shù)量太少(單值為計(jì)算平均價值和住宅或公共建筑的置信

22、區(qū)間的限制,但綜合樓計(jì)算的平均可靠性估計(jì)為95%,同時95%的置信區(qū)間為92%至97%,平均價值應(yīng)用到可靠性上,基于這個認(rèn)識即價值代表95%置信區(qū)間的平均范圍,它是比較合理的與用來任意衍生的價值相比。另外,整個置信區(qū)間的使用和不是最可能的平均值相比,當(dāng)比較系統(tǒng)時有更加明顯詳實(shí)的信息,因?yàn)樗械南嗨葡到y(tǒng)的可靠性評估包括比較。這是當(dāng)拿一個系統(tǒng)同其他許多系統(tǒng)相比較時一個公認(rèn)的統(tǒng)計(jì)方法。煙霧探測器在表5中的運(yùn)行可靠性值有一個與95%置信區(qū)間相關(guān)聯(lián)的更為緊湊的范圍。這可能是數(shù)據(jù)庫的大小和質(zhì)量以及通過HALL1995來保持結(jié)果的最初說明的一致性所導(dǎo)致的直接后果?；诒?中所體現(xiàn)的結(jié)果,煙霧探測器的平均值為

23、,對商業(yè)建筑為72.5%(下界70.2%,上界為73.7%,對住宅為77.8%(下界75.1%,上界為80.6%,對公共建筑為83.5%(下界82.3%,上界為84.6%。煙霧探測器可靠性的變異結(jié)果進(jìn)一步表明可靠性估計(jì)由為數(shù)據(jù)分析的住宅類型決定(見圖3,煙霧探測器的最高可靠性與公共建筑有關(guān)。這可能是許多的公共建筑需要更多的維護(hù)和日常系統(tǒng)需求保證的直接后果。這一分析方法能很容易的應(yīng)用到其他消防系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行可靠性評估。但是,應(yīng)當(dāng)指出文獻(xiàn)中數(shù)據(jù)的可靠性是一個重要的因素。值得注意的是數(shù)據(jù)在內(nèi)容和形式上的巨大變化,在學(xué)習(xí)報(bào)告和研究時這是努力的一部分。這項(xiàng)研究提供了一個十分廣泛的初步嘗試去描述消防系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行

24、可靠性。調(diào)查報(bào)告需要大量的數(shù)據(jù)來改變數(shù)據(jù)庫。這種努力的重心在取得更加具體的數(shù)據(jù),系統(tǒng)的廣泛人口能為消防系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行可靠性的巨大改善提供基礎(chǔ),從而引起設(shè)計(jì)工程師的興趣,另外這項(xiàng)技術(shù)對工程師基于高速發(fā)展的設(shè)計(jì)理念的性能分析也是必要的。附錄二:外文資料原文Estimates of the Operational Reliability of FireProtection SystemsFor the past three years,the National Institute of Standards and Technology(NISThas been working to develop a n

25、ew encryption standard to keep government information secure.The organization is in the final stages of an open process of selecting one or more algorithms,or data-scrambling formulas,for the new Advanced Encryption Standard(AES and plans to make adecision by late summer or early fall.The standard i

26、s slated to go into effect next year.Richard W.Bukowski,P.E.Senior EngineerMST Building and Fire Research LaboratoryGaithersburg,MD20899-8642USAEdward K.Budnick,P.E.,and Christopher F.Scheme1Vice President Chemical EngineerHughes Associates,Inc Hughes Associates,Inc. Baltimore,MD21227-1652USA Baltim

27、ore,MD21227-1652USAINTRODUCTIONBackgroundFire protection strategies are designed and installed to perform specific functions.For example,a fire sprinkler system is expected to control or extinguish fires:To accomplish this,the system sprinklers must open,and the required amount of water to achieve c

28、ontrol or extinguishment must be delivered to the fire location.A fire detection system is intended to provide sufficient early warning of a fire to permit occupant notification and escape,fire service notification,and in some cases activation of other fire protection features(e.g.,special extinguis

29、hing systems,smoke management systems.Both system activation(detectionand notification(alarmmust occur to achieve early warning.Construction compartmentation is generally designed to limit the extent of fire spread as well as to maintain the buildingsstructural integrity as well as tenability along

30、escape routes for some specified period of time. In order to accomplish this,the construction features must be fire“rated”(based on standard testsand the integrity of the features maintained.The reliability of individual fire protection strategies such as detection,automatic suppression,and construc

31、tion compartmentation is important input to detailed engineering analyses associated with performance based design. In the context of safety systems,there are several elements of reliability,including both operational and perfornzzsance reliability.Operational reliability provides a measure of the p

32、robability that a fire protection system will operate as intended when needed.Performance reliability is a measure of the adequacy of the feature to successfully perform its intended hnction under specific fire exposure conditions.The former is a measure of component or system operability while the

33、latter is a measure of the adequacy of the system design.The scope of this study was limited to evaluation of operational reliability due primarily to the form of the reported data in the literature.In addition to this distinction between operational and performance reliability,the scope focused on

34、unconditional estimates of reliability and failureestimates in terms offail-dangerous outcomes.A discussion of these terms is provided later in the paper.ScopeThis paper provides a review of reported operational reliability and performance estimates for(1fire detection,(2automatic suppression,and to

35、 a limited extent(3 construction compartmentation.In general,the reported estimates for fire detection are largely for smoke detectiodfire alarm systems;automatic sprinklers comprise most of the data for automatic suppression,and compartmentation includes compartment fire resistance and enclosure in

36、tegrity.It should be noted that in some cases the literature did not delineate beyond the general categories of“fire detection”or“automatic suppression,”requiring assumptions regarding the specific type of fire protection system.Several studies reported estimates of reliability for both fire detecti

37、on and automatic sprinkler system strategies.However,very little information was found detailing reliability estimates for passive fire protection strategies such as compartmentation.A limited statistical based analysis was performed to provide generalized information on the ranges of suchestimates

38、and related uncertainties.This latter effort was limited to evaluation of reported data on detection and suppression.Insufficient data were identified on compartmentation reliability to be included.This paper addresses elements of reliability as they relate to fire safety systems. The literature sea

39、rch that was performed for this analysis is reviewed and important findings and data summarized.The data found in the literature that were applicable to sprinkler and smoke detection systems reliability were analyzed,with descriptive estimates of the mean values and95percent confidence intervals for

40、 the operational reliability of these in situ systems reported.ELEMENTS OF RELIABILITY ANALYSISThere is considerable variation in reliability data and associated analyses reported in the literature.Basically,reliability is an estimate of the probability that a system or component will operate as des

41、igned over some time period.During the useful or expected life of a component,this time period is“reset”each time a component is tested and found to be in working order.Therefore,the more often systems and components are tested and maintained, the more reliable they are.This form of reliability is r

42、eferred to as unconditional.Unconditional reliability is an estimate of the probability that a system will operate“on demand.”A conditional reliability is an estimate that two events of concern,i.e.,a fire and successful operation of a fire safety system occur at the same time.Reliability estimates

43、that do not consider a fire event probability are unconditional estimates.Two other important concepts applied to operational reliability are fuiled-safe and failed-dangerous.when a fire safety system fails safe,it operates when no fire event has occurred.A common example is the false alarming of a

44、smoke detector.A fire safety system fails dangerous when it does not function during a fire event.In this study,the failed-dangerous event defines the Operational probability of failure(1-reliability estimate.A sprinkler system not operating during a fire event or an operating system that does not c

45、ontrol or extinguish a fire are examples of this type of failure.The overall reliability of a system depends on the reliability of individual components and their corresponding failure rates,the interdependencies of the individual components that compose the system,and the maintenance and testing of

46、 components and systems once installed to verioperability.All of these factors are of concern in estimating operationaz reliability.Fire safety system performance is also of concern when dealing with the overall concept of reliability.System performance is defined as the ability of a particular syst

47、em to accomplish the task for which it was designed and installed.For example,the performance of a fire rated separation is based on the construction components ability to remain intact and provide fire separation during a fire.The degree to which these components prevent fire spread across their in

48、tended boundaries defines system performance.Performance reliability estimates require data on how well systems accomplish their design task under actual fire events or full scale tests.Information on performance reliability could not be discerned directly from many of the data sources reviewed as p

49、art of this effort due to the form of the presented data,and therefore,it is not addressed as a separate effect.The cause of failure for any type of system is typically classified into several general categories:installation errors,design mistakes,manufacturing/equipment defects,lack of maintenance,

50、exceeding design limits,and environmental factors.There are several approaches that can be utilized to minimize the probability of failure.Such methods include(1design redundancy,(2active monitoring for faults,(3providing the simplest system(i.e.,the least number of componentsto address the hazard,a

51、nd(4a well designed inspection,testing,and maintenance program.These reliability engineering concepts are important when evaluating reliability estimates reported in the literature.Depending on the data used in a given analysis,the reliability estimate may relate to one or more of the concepts prese

52、nted above.The literature review conducted under the scope of this effort addresses these concepts where appropriate.Most of the information that was obtained from the literature in support of this paper were reported in terms of unconditional operationaZ reliability,i.e.,in terms of the probability

53、 that a fire protection strategy will not faiZ dangerous.LITERATURE REVIEWA literature search was conducted to gather reliability data of all types for fire safety systemsrelevant to the protection strategies considered:automatic suppression,automatic detection,and compartmentation.The objective of

54、the literature search was to obtain system-specific reliability estimates for the performance of each type of fire safety system asa function of genericoccupancy type(e.g.,residential,commercial,and institutional.Sources of information included national fire incident database reports,US Department o

55、f Defense safety records,industry and occupancy specific studies,insurance industry historical records and inspection reports documented in the open literature,and experimental data Reports on experimental work and fire testing results were utilized only when fire detection, automatic suppression,or

56、 compartmentation strategies were explicitly evaluated.Tests of systems used for qualification,approval,or listing were also reviewed for information on failure modes.Published data from the United Kingdom,Japan,Australia,and New Zealand were included.General Studies Several broad based studies were

57、 identified that reported reliability estimates for fire detection and fire suppression systems as well as construction compartmentation.These included(1the Warrington Fire Research study1996in the United Kingdom,(2the Australian Fire Engineering GuidelinesFire Code Reform Center, 19961,(3a compilat

58、ion of fire statistics for Tokyo,JapanTokyo Fire Department,19971, and(4results from a study of in situ performance of fire protection systems in Japan Watanabe,19791.The Warrington Fire Research study addressed the reliability of fire safety systems and the interaction of their components.A Delphi

59、methodology was used to develop discrete estimates of the reliability of detection and alarm systems,fire suppression systems, automatic smoke control systems,and passive fire protection(e.g.,compartmentation.The Australian Fire Engineering Guidelines were developed as the engineering code of practice supporting the new performance-based Building Code of Australia.Followi