水文預報課程設計(2)

1、.水文預報課程設計姓名：學號：學院：水利與環(huán)境學院班級：指導老師：時間： 2013.1.23'.水文預報課程設計說明書1、設計目的1、 流域水文模型的用途：洪水預報方案是現(xiàn)代實時洪水預報調度系統(tǒng)的核心部分，是提高預報精度和增長預見期的關鍵技術。對水資源可持續(xù)利用：流域水文模型是水資源評價、開發(fā)、利用和管理的理論基礎。對水環(huán)境和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)保護：流域水文模型是構建面污染模型和生態(tài)評價模型的主要平臺。流域水文模型還是分析研究氣候變化和人類活動對洪水、水資源和水環(huán)境影響的有效工具。本次課程設計的目的是通過一個具體的降雨徑流預報方案的制作，使學生了解生產單位對預報任務的要求。2 、通過課程設計，要

2、求掌握如下內容：1) 流域綜合退水曲線、地下水退水曲線的制作以及次洪分割方法；2) 熟悉降雨徑流相關圖編制的完整過程；3) 新安江兩水源模型結構及產流參數(shù)率定方法；4) 流域經驗單位線的推求方法；5) 洪水預報方案精度評定方法；6) 利用預報方案進行實行洪水預報方法；7) 利用馬斯京根分段連續(xù)演算法進行長河段洪水演進預報。2、設計基本資料該流域集水面積1884.6km2 ，干流河長約273km 。流域氣候溫濕，年降雨量在1700 毫左右。地下水位較高，且隨季節(jié)變幅小，因次，一般情況下，土壤含水量較大。根據流域自然地理條件情況和氣候條件，以及洪水流量過程線分析，可知流域產流規(guī)律符合濕潤地區(qū)的蓄滿

3、產流模型特征。采用降雨徑流相關圖制作流域蓄滿產流方案，用二層蒸發(fā)模型計算蒸發(fā)，水源劃分考慮兩水源劃分。3、課程設計資料1.一場歷史洪水的流量過程，相應的各雨量站（3 個雨量站）時段雨量與權重（時段長為3h）2. 洪水的前期日降雨量，日最大蒸發(fā)量資料（歷史洪水與實時預報洪水）3. XX 場洪水的退稅過程4. 部分場次洪水降雨、徑流特征值成果表5. 干流河段的馬斯京根參數(shù)及分段數(shù)（3 段）4、產流計算4.1 面平均雨量計算4.11 計算方法泰森多邊形法PPi i(1)其中i 為 i 站的面積權重，Pi 為 i 站的實測降雨4.12各測站基本資料如表1、表 2 所示'.表 1各測站降雨量單位

4、 :mmA 站降雨B 站降雨C 站降雨18.181818188.51063829812.9032258190.9090909142.5531914964.51612903168.181818278.72340426119.354838745.4545454521.2765957432.2580645236.3636363617.021276625.80645161表 2各測站權重A 站權重B 站權重C 站權重0.220.470.314.13 計算步驟將表 1、表 2 中數(shù)據代入公式(1)中并使其結果除以3 即得面平均降雨量如表3 所示表 3面平均雨量單位 :mm流域面雨量4.0020.0037

5、.0010.008.00再由實測洪水過程可畫出流量過程線如圖1800700600)s500/3m 400(Q 3002001000123456789101112131415161718192021n( 時段數(shù))圖 1實測洪水流量過程線4.2 次洪分割4.21 計算流域平均消退系數(shù)Cgg'.nQi ,1Qi , 2i1(2)由最小二乘法公式C gnQi2,1i 1算得 Cg=0.837( 從流量開始消退時算起 )同理可算得地下水消退系數(shù)Cgg=0.746( 從退水開始算起 )4.22 劃分水源由地下水退水過程線不變的規(guī)律，結合實測洪水過程(無后續(xù)洪水 )和實測洪水過程可畫出圖 28007

6、00600)s500/3m 400(Q 30020010001357911131517192123252729313335n( 時段數(shù))圖 2分割復式洪水再由洪峰 (如此題中的683.91)與 Cg 的乘積的遞推， 算出一系列的Q 值，用徑流深計算公式可累加出一系列的R 值，即得蓄瀉關系曲線，如圖3120100)80mm(60eR402000100200300400500600700800Q0(m3/s)圖 3蓄瀉關系曲線用圖 3 可查出此場洪水對應的Re末和 Re 初 值，則由公式'.n 1Q1Q2/ARR03.6 tQi末Re初i 22e算得 R039.637mm再算得 RS34.

7、814mmRG 4.832mm另附以下幾張圖表表 4地面與地下流量過程QQgQs1.75711.757101.95184.23320.857217.35716.709410.6477117.00039.1856107.8146361.847311.6612350.1856620.159514.1379606.0216683.912416.6140667.2984666.279219.0902647.1887558.234321.5663536.6681430.399124.0425406.3565315.250426.5187288.7317235.767328.9948206.7724168

8、.251531.4710136.7805112.756833.947178.809662.117136.423325.693838.899438.89940(2)單位 :mm800700600)s500/3m 400(Q 30020010001163146617691 106 121 136 151 166 181 196 211 226 241 256 271 286n( 時段數(shù))圖 5流域平均退水曲線'.454035)30s/253m(20Q151050135791113151719212325272931333537394143n( 時段數(shù))圖 6地下水退水曲線表 5蓄瀉關系曲線

9、表單位 :m3/sQR0.000688910.000002360.000722620.000007210.000757980.000012290.000795080.000017620.000833990.000023210.00087480.000029070.000917620.000035220.000962520.000041680.001009630.00004844圖表標題7006005004003002001000y = 0.8915x - 5.44980100200300400500600700800圖 7相鄰時段流量關系圖'.4.3 流域初始土壤蓄水量的計算4.31前

10、期影響雨量Pa 的計算kEp(3)1WMPa,t 1k(Pt Pa ,t )(4)4.32計算實例已知資料見表6表 6Pa 基本數(shù)據單位 :mm日降雨量Pa蒸發(fā)能力WMPa,t+11.4609.78053.95525047.413185.946.848951.942.838140.738.259144.4 降雨徑流相關圖制作及誤差檢驗4.41 計算原理：（ 1）流域蓄滿產流模型計算公式R PEWWMWM (1PE a )b 1 ( aPE WMM )(5)WMMRPEWWM(aPEWMM )(6)（ 2）蒸發(fā)計算（兩層蒸發(fā)模式）P WUEPEUEPEL0(7)EEUELEPP WUEPEUWU

11、EL(EP - EU )WL WLM(8)EEUEL'.表 7降雨徑流相關表單位 :mmW0010203038.2591440506063.17080P a010.163820.69567731.674741.1599843.2165655.50625868.87981773.342584.11941106.400000-7.1E-15-7.1E-1500-7.1E-157.11E-1502.78750.012120.103810.20606710.322230.432390.4577020.62213490.8359370.9190621.1589142.7875100.158460

12、.495780.8730911.303471.7136951.8082882.42648653.24322833.5664124.5281311015.750.398260.940891.5495262.246352.9136843.0680824.08308145.44648165.9967617.70498715.75200.648621.349052.13641353.040643.9100634.1117975.4449117.2638028.01305210.482462021.5750.757641.517962.37338513.356974.3042244.5242755.98

13、158077.98347738.81600811.6763521.575301.49582.590713.82905445.263536.6590536.9856889.180772212.3585313.812522030402.730814.259366.00164378.0433710.0633510.5425213.861032023.13040504.392116.404898.723036711.485214.2934614.9761820.1387943033.1405052.54.879547.023189.499904412.46715.5139616.2622122.532

14、.535.642.552.557.36255.916068.3277811.13416914.539718.1303819.0401427.362537.362540.462547.362557.3625606.529359.0949312.09388515.764819.7178620.75181304043.1506066.158.1081811.060314.55640918.958624.4091426.1536.1546.1549.2556.1566.15709.2097812.427916.28005121.271328.2591430405053.1607072.937510.1

15、13413.549817.70562723.286531.1966432.937542.937552.937556.037562.937572.937581.2512.998217.15122.42526931.2539.5091441.2551.2561.2564.3571.2581.258012.531116.564521.6330863038.2591440506063.170809016.652721.8387304048.2591450607073.1809010021.9.2591460708083.190100110.00030.00040.00050.00060.00068.2

16、5970.00080.00090.00093.100100.000110.000120.00040.00050.00060.00070.00078.25980.00090.000100.000103.100110.000120130.00050.00060.00070.00080.00088.25990.000100.000110.000113.100120.000130.000140.00060.00070.00080.00090.00098.259100.000110.000120.000123.100130.000140.000'.)mm(P1601401201008060402

17、00020406080100120140160R(mm)圖 8降雨徑流相關圖'.4.4.2 誤差檢驗用其他場次 PE R 關系查降雨徑流相關圖，校核是否合格并算出合格率與等級，見表8表 8徑流深校核單位： mmPa有效降雨 PE次洪徑流深演算徑流深許可誤差實際誤差合格否合格率等級15.245.710.369738246.45286893433.916869311否0.88甲級48.858.229.95190859275.9903817192.951908594是43.925.22.4062514166.1604104853-3.75415907否4681.546.9607386347.

18、59.392147726-0.53926137是40.1113.371.1697806671.5591429514.23395613-0.3893623是45.36631.9997257731.36.3999451530.699725765是35.764.727.5650327120.701118335.5130065426.863914379否1071.910.5153988413.145397783-2.62999893是29.876.231.84636564266.3692731295.846365644是44.4114.277.2041834578.615.44083669-1.395

19、81655是44.981.944.844248446.88.96884968-1.9557516是5165.938.7288917736.97.7457783531.828891765是80101.7103.827372101.7202.127372048是10.737.64.7629569973.92356886230.839388135是52.4100.568.4976318472.913.69952637-4.40236816是42.774.735.3260480737.47.065209614-2.07395193是39.6150106.9960346109.620-2.6039653

20、7是27.860.513.5689830515.106506262.71379661-1.53752321是3894.950.5537405352.910.11074811-2.34625947是52.485.158.7773674857.511.75547351.277367482是47.946.719.7176971316.683075653.9435394273.034621487是11.5109.440.147997940.98.029599579-0.7520021是56.4104.57958512.91687690631.662708194是44.718.96.6571116344

21、.38046924632.276642387是'.5、匯流計算5.1、fc 的試算5.1.1 試算方法RGf CRi(9)PEiPEiFCRSPE if CRi(10)PEiPEiFC5.1.2 試算實例(1) 基本數(shù)據如表 9表 9單位 :mm流域面雨 (mm)EpPE累計 PE累積凈雨量 R時段凈雨量 riri/PE4.001.21252.792.790.43240.43240.1551174120.001.212518.7921.584.30423.87180.2060856437.001.212535.7957.3618.130413.82620.3863404710.001.

22、21258.7966.1524.40916.27880.714510338.001.21256.7972.9431.19666.78751再假設fC 2.79mm/ h，則有fC4.823 /(0.15510.2061 0.38630.7145 1) 1.9592.79 mm/ h故 fC1.959mm/ h劃分時段凈雨如表 10 所示表 10劃分地面及地下凈流深單位 :mmRgRs0.300.130.403.470.7613.071.404.881.964.835.2 計算單位線 (試錯法 )5.2.1 演算實例如表11 所示'.表 11科林法試算表單位 :m3/s時段凈實測地面徑各

23、部分之試算的假定的平均的調整的時段雨流量0.133.474.884.83均值13.07和UH(mm)UH(mm)UH(mm)UH(mm)ri(mm)Qs(m3/s)(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)00.1300.000.000.000.0000.00013.470.8570.450.000.450.220.630.4735.0017.7335.158213.0710.6482.1712.1414.317.383.272.41169.0085.70169.86734.88107.8154.0258.610.0062.6438.4769

24、.3451.10313.00182.05270.7644.83350.1863.45108.5517.080.00129.0895.86254.33187.42268.00227.71240.2975606.0222.9292.9582.4616.90195.22162.15443.87327.10227.00277.05227.1666667.2982.4478.73152.7281.61315.50255.36411.94303.57190.00246.78185.9117647.1891.7065.90130.76151.14349.50332.50314.69231.90132.001

25、81.95132.8238536.6681.0545.78110.76129.41287.00318.25218.42160.9682.00121.4882.0749406.3570.8628.4492.71109.61231.62259.31147.05108.3667.0087.6867.72710288.7320.0023.2464.4191.75179.39205.5083.2361.330.0030.6744.74911206.7720.000.0040.0163.74103.75141.5765.2048.050.0024.02012136.7810.0032.6939.6072.

26、2988.0248.7635.9317.971378.8100.0032.3532.3552.3226.4919.529.761425.6940.000.000.0016.189.527.013.511500.000.000.000.000.000.00再用調整的單位線計算地面流量，比較預測與實際值間的誤差大小。5.2.2 用計算出的單位線推出地面流量如表12 所示'.表 12用計算出的單位線推出地面流量凈雨量調整后單位線0.1285543.46816513.069424.8792174.828756Qs(m3/s)總徑流ri(mm)UH(mm)Q(m3/s)0.12855400003

27、.46816535.1580.451972035.6099735.6099713.06942169.8672.18371612.193370184.2441184.24414.879217270.763.48074158.9126845.949460379.1029Qg10379.10294.828756240.2973.08912693.90404222.006317.154350576.4508Qg211.23017587.681227.1662.92032183.33896353.867582.8817916.97694767.1516Qg323.30145790.453185.9112

28、.38996978.78492314.0542132.109782.02463795.2744Qg445.36054840.6349132.8231.70749964.477296.8927117.2461130.7434743.8897Qg585.58246829.472282.0741.05509846.06521242.9748110.8392116.0336599.0419Qg6136.2697735.311667.7270.87066128.46462173.591990.71001109.6929471.0571Qg7101.7006572.757744.7490.57526823

29、.48884107.265964.8072289.77189330.6582Qg875.90103406.55920015.5196988.5152440.0456864.13699208.2176Qg956.64635264.864058.4843433.0454739.63153131.1613Qg1042.27622173.4376021.8340132.7037254.53772Qg1131.5515386.08925021.608221.6082Qg1223.5474945.1556900Qg1317.5739317.57393Qg1413.1157513.11575Qg159.78

30、85279.788527Qg167.3053597.305359Qg175.4521255.452125Qg184.0690224.069022Qg193.0367873.036787Qg202.266412.26641兩者擬合曲線圖9 所示'.)s/3m(Q90080070060050040030020010001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021 n( 時段數(shù))圖 9預報與實測徑流擬合情況從上圖可以看出兩條流量過程線形狀大致相同，峰現(xiàn)時間也一致，雖然峰值差距較大，但并不影響整體洪水預報，故此單位線還算吻合。'.5.3 實時洪水

31、預報5.3.1 基本數(shù)據表13表 13基本數(shù)據Pa時段 1 雨量 ( mm)時段 2 雨量 ( mm)時段 3 雨量 ( mm)蒸發(fā)能力 ( mm/h)馬斯京根 k馬斯京根 x63.1163729290.45用降雨徑流相關圖可得表14表 15時段凈雨的計算單位 :mm時段雨量 ri(mm)EpPE累積 PE累積 R時段凈雨 riri/PE160.2515.7515.755.9967607695.996760770.380747370.2536.7552.535.629.60323920.80553290.2528.7581.2564.3528.751再根據前面所求的 fC1.959mm / h

32、 分割時段凈雨，得表15表 15劃分地面地下徑流單位 :mmRgRs0.7458835.2508779531.57803428.025205341.95926.791'.5.3.2 地面徑流量預報得表16表 16計算地面徑流量凈雨 (mm)修正后單位線 qi(m3/s)5.2509mm 的徑流量 (m3/s)28.0252mm 的徑流量 (m3/s)26.791mm 的徑流量 (m3/s)地面徑流量 (m3/s)5.250900028.025235.15818.461018.46126.7910169.86789.19598.5310187.726270.76142.173476.05

33、694.192712.420240.297126.177758.810455.0911340.078227.166119.282673.437725.3931518.112185.91197.620636.637643.7801378.037132.82369.744521.019608.6001199.36482.07443.096372.239498.074913.40967.72735.563230.014355.846621.42344.74923.497189.806219.884433.18800.000125.410181.447306.8570119.887119.887005

34、.3.3 計算地下徑流量由地下徑流量計算公式Qg 2RG(1KKG U Qg1 KKG(11)其中RG Cgg 0.7463UF (km2 )(12)3.6 t h得出地下徑流演算表如表17'.表 17地下徑流演算表單位 :m3/s地下徑流量Qg1=0Qg2=27.569Qg3=78.901Qg4=131.293Qg5=97.986Qg6=73.129Qg7=54.578Qg8=40.732Qg9=30.399Qg10=22.688Qg11=16.932Qg12=12.637Qg13=9.431Qg14=7.039Qg15=5.253Qg16=3.920Qg17=2.926Qg18=2

35、.184再累積地面與地下徑流量得斷面徑流量見表18(注意地下徑流量較地面徑流量滯后4個時段)'.表 18斷面徑流量計算表單位 :m3/s總徑流 ( 上斷面 ) Qt018.46103671187.7261055712.42032471340.0781611545.681351456.9381451330.6565531011.395796694.5518557487.7654933347.5896561150.286286522.6875172916.9321150812.636751639.4310421967.0385617675.2530092353.9204182532.925

36、8808792.1836391841.6296904371.2162682090.90772353'.5.4 應用馬斯京根法進行河道洪水演算5.4.1 基本資料表19表 19k， x 值馬斯京根 k馬斯京根 x90.451n 1 2x由公式xl2(13)2K ll得出 xl0.35， n3 ， t 3h查表知其河段匯流系數(shù)表，見表20表 20河段匯流系數(shù)表匯流系數(shù) Pm0.0020.0390.2290.4910.1810.0460.0100.0025.4.2 河道演算實例由上表可根據馬斯京根法演算下斷面河道流量，見表21'.表 21馬斯京根法推流下段面流量單位 :m3/s總徑流

37、 ( 上斷面 ) Qt匯流系數(shù) PmQ1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6Q700.002018.461036710.03900.036922187.72610550.22900.719980.375452712.42032470.49104.2275777.3213181.4248411340.0781610.18109.06436942.9892827.784392.6801561545.681350.04603.34144892.17352163.144352.263053.0913631456.9381450.01000.84920833.97843349.7984306.877960.281572.9138761330.6565530.00200.184618.635401128.9481657.9784353.96156.820591011.3957960.0369221.8772613