詞條的戰(zhàn)略沖擊到WTO里對中國和外國公司(1)ppt課件

1、Strategic Impact of Chinas entry into the WTO On Chinese and Foreign CompaniesPresentation for CEMS Universities in St. Gallen, Stockholm, Bergen, MilanoNovember, 2001ContentPageA. The macroeconomic impact of Chinas WTO entry 3B. Automotive 11C. Apparel & Textile 22D. Pharmaceuticals36E. Banking42F.

2、 Securities and Asset Management48G. Insurances52A.The macroeconomic impact of Chinas WTO entryAlready the tariffs have come down considerably in the last decade but they still differ strongly between industriesWeighted average tariff rates of manufactured productsWeighted average tariffs with and w

3、ithout WTO accessionSource: World Bank, 1999OilseedsMeat & livestockDairyOther foodBeverages & tobaccoTextilesApparelWood & paperPetrochemicalsMetalsAutomobilesOther manu.Total manu.TotalWithoutWithThe impact of Chinas WTO entry has a macroeconomic as well as industry-specific microeconomic impactMe

4、asuresTariff reductionsAbolishment of non-tariff barriersQuotas (imp./exp.)LicensesLocal content requirementsDistribution restrictionsInvestment restrictionsetc.Introduction of legal protectionCopyrightsAuti-dumpingMicroeconomic impactMore competitorsPrice pressureNew sourcing strategies, lower fact

5、or costMore product varietyIncreasing productivity, restructuringConcentration process in some industriesMacroeconomic impactMore import & exportAccelerated growth of GDPAccelerated growth of income (EDP/cap.) and wealth/capMore foreign investmentEmployment increase/decreaseStructural change towards

6、 more competitivenessTrading short term pain against long term gain is a walk on the wireShort term painLong term gainSource: Dev. & Res. Ctr. Of the State Connect, Goldman Buck, World BankCorporate profits(ROI)Employ-mentSocial capitalGDPWealthTradeForeign Investment(direct)Price & quality competit

7、ionDecrease of profit margins Increase in bankruptcies1% additional growth p.a.34% until 2021High loss of labor/jobs in some industries (e.g. agriculture, automotive), but new jobs created in other industries(e.g. apparel)Increase of skilled laborRural-urban discrepancy in wealth and income (+4.6% p

8、.a. / 2.1% p.a.)1.15% additional GDP/cap p.a. 60% of population 6000 USD income by 20211.7% additional export growth p.a.1.3% additional import growth p.a.50bn annuallyThe macroeconomic impact of Chinas accession to the WTO will be especially strong in apparel, automobiles and electronicsSome catego

9、ries as exampleWithout accessionWith accessionWithout accessionWith accessionWithout accessionWith accessionFoodgrainsOther agricultureBeverages/tobaccoExtractive industriesTextilesWearing apparelPetrochemicalsMetalsAutomobilesElectronicsUtilitiesTrade/transportTotal13.119.654.667.5910.376.874.715.1

10、91.802.562.512.383.1818.3014.716.8611.6513.238.577.108.423.474.413.643.494.9518.1014.444.4511.2513.7518.406.687.951.054.663.533.434.820.302.302.491.688.1919.522.543.370.134.965.851.703.700.180.740.860.168.3418.232.814.850.457.685.012.434.580.200.790.880.2010.1743.953.225.930.779.485.742.706.345.872.

11、590.851.4913.140.973.914.111.853.481.121.893.2115.7415.830.974.605.081.724.921.652.274.7515.278.7314.427.8722.3007.425.601.412.056.14Table 10. Output, Exports and Imports as a Share of the World EconomyOutputExportsImports199520051995200519952005Source:, World Bank analysis 20

12、00With some dramatic consequences for employment (1)Source: World Bank and Dev. Res. Ctr. of the State CouncilEmployment of skilled labor growth: 19952005FoodgrainsMeat & livestockBeverages/tobaccoExtractive industriesWearing apparelWithout accession to WTOWith accession to WTO29.1130.2569.8265.29-3

13、2.852.8860.5562.95116.460.21MetalsAutomobilesElectronicsOther manufacturesBusiness/finance23.0426.5550.5936.5439.9142.1825.5224.8-48.1148.07With some dramatic consequences for employment (2)Source: World Bank, 1999Jobs lost/newly created (in m)CommerceApparel & TextileCoHonWheatRiceAutomotiveElect.

14、media telecomMedia publishers1) Fast moving consumer goodsHIGHMEDIUMLOWLowHighLowHighDegree of globalizationProtectionist barriers todayConstructionPharmaceuticalsConsumer electronics/ durablesBrandedFMCG1)(e.g. Coke)ApparelAutomotiveAgricultural productsTrans-portationCommodity steelProtectionist b

15、arriersTariffs in % Quota licenses Investment restrictions - equity - regionalDegree of globalizationMarket share of global brands Production relocation costs in % of total turnoverDomestic companies in global industries which enjoyed high protection will suffer mostImpactB.AutomotiveIn the year 202

16、1 China will be the largest truck market in Asia and passenger car demand will have grown to 1.6m cars200020042021200020042021hi pricemid pricelow price+10% p.a. +14% p.a.6409601,650150150250+0% p.a.+10% p.a.heavymediumlightSource: Daimler Chrysler, RBP assumptions1302105004306501,00080100150Passeng

17、er carsTrucksSource: China Passenger Car Prospect 2001, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Santana1)Jetta1) Total sales volume by user, 2000Government carsBusiness carsPrivate carsTaxiTaxiBusiness carsPrivate cars1): Santana and Jetta make up for 50% of passenger cars in 2000In % of totalIn % of tot

18、alPrivate buyers are becoming the ultimate market driverThe contracted cuts in duties and of non-tariff barriers are considerableReduction of tariffsAbolishment of non-tariff barriersImmediate increase of import quotas to 6 bn US$, growing +15% p.a until elimination in 2005Abolishment of special tax

19、es and license system for imported carsAbolishment of “index system and any restrictions in preduct policy (type, category model) two years after accessionAbolishment of local content restrictions Abolishment of any restrictions to operate an own sales and maintenance network from 2003 onwards Aboli

20、shment of foreign ownership restrictions and value level for automotive JVs to be approved will increase from 30 mil US$ to 150 mil US$Introduction of financing options, e.g. leasing, operated by foreign non-bank institutions under Chinese regulations upon accessionSource: US-Chamber of CommerceCar-

21、manufacturersComponent suppliers010304050602%001000002030405060110%A further decrease of car prices is predictable1002004008001,6003,2001001502002501993199419951996199719982003Price RMB 000Until 2003 price will be below RMB 80,0002000=120,000RMBCumulated ProductionSource: RB calculation, Volkswagen

22、production figuresVolume000Example: VW-Santana GLSSlope 19%Small scale production is a mayor reason for the low efficiency and profitability of Chinas car manufactures1997199819992000VW SantanaVW Santana231TAIC Daihatsu100VW Jetta76Chongqing Suzuki50Dongfeng Citroen40OthersBuick 20Guangzhou Honda 10

23、Source: China InfobankMarket share of car manufactures 1999production in 1000 units504030494035550Market Share%TAIC Charade 2000Nanya PalioYunqueChangan LingyangChangheQinchuan ZhonghuaChangan AltoTAIC CharadeGeely HaoqingRetail price1,000 RMBEnginelMiniStandard (Economy)Lower-mediumHigh-end0.60.81.

24、01.82.02.53.0Qinchuan XiaofuxinExisting models and new launches, 2001Source: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Upper- medium: New launchesExisting modelThis development trend has been anticipated by carmakers through new product launches BMW 3 seriesSAW BluebirdBrilliance ZhonghuaHonda Acc

25、ord 2.0VW Audi A6 TurboVW PassatCitroen PicassoMazda PremacyVW Santana 2000Citroen EMVW BoraVW JettaRenault ScenicDingoFord IkonVW Santana GLGM SailSAIC CherryYuejin Encore/ uniqueVW PoloCitroen DCKIA PrideToyota VitzGeelyToyota PlatzFAW Red FlagGM BuickHonda AccordVW Audi A6Installed capacity and i

26、ts enlargement for passenger car 1000 unitsInstalled CapacityProduction(2000)Utilization(%)Planned Enlargement (yr) ModelSantanaPassat PoloJettaAudi A6BoraCitroenAltoAccordBuickSail (compact car)Vitz/YarisDaihatsu CharadePremacy (minivan)IkonCherokeeGeelyCherryEncore/UniquePalioRed FlagBMW 3 or 5 se

27、riesZhonghuaVWPeugjeotSuzukiHondaGMToyotaMazdaFordDaimller ChryslerJiliSAICNanyaFAWBMWBrillianceTotalProduct SiteShanghai (SVW)Shanghai (SVW) Shanghai (SVW) Changchun (FAW)Changchun (FAW)Changchun (FAW)WuhanChongqin (CMC)GuangzhouShanghai (SGM)Shanghai (SGM)Tianjin (TAIC)TianjinHainan (FAW)Chongqing

28、 (Changan MC)ZhejiangAnhuiNanjingChangchunShenyangShenyang300600150300120803010000150-10010060605020030ca. 1,44025030090170545330300082-57050130067883%50% - 60%57%-45%66%100%30%-55%-5%7%-8%-65%-50% over the next 510 yearsCarmakersPressure for cost reductionsIntroduce new modelsReconsider global sour

29、cingPressure for less suppliers (modules)CompetitorsNew entries of global suppliersLower prices aggressivelyIncrease qualityC.Apparel & TextileThe WTO agreement will open the developed markets to apparel and textile imports from ChinaTariff reductionSuccessive increase of quota until abolishmentSafe

30、guards against sudden trading imbalancesChina lowers average import tariffs from 25.4 to 11.7%Developed countries lower their import tariffs accordinglyPhasing out of import quotas of other WTO-members until 2005Phasing out of export quotas of ChinaAntidumping regulationsSafeguard mechanisms in case

31、 of sudden imbalancesThe quota will be gradually abolishedQuota abolishmentExplanationSource: - ATC, Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsTimetable - quota abolishmentStageImplementation dateMinimumintegration rateAdditional growth rate12341. Jan, 19951. Jan, 19981. Jan, 20021. Jan, 200516%17%18%16%25%

32、27%Full integration of textile and apparel quotaIntegration means removal of textile and apparel products from quota coverage thus to be integrated into the ATC (agreement of textile and apparel)Additional growth rate refers to the requirement of ATC to ask WTO members to increase the quota growth r

33、ate for major supplying countries. The methodology is to add an annual additional growth rate on the historical quota growth rate.Sourcing structure of major importing countries 1999 %USAEUJapanOthersOthersEastern EuropeEurope (Esp. Turkey)ChinaRest of Asia1)OthersOthersThe AmericasChinaRest of Asia

34、1)Rest of Asia1)ChinaEUUSAJapanCAGR96-99+2.1%+10.7%-5.9%Major importing countries / regions 1999%Major importing regions and supplier regionsSource: WTO, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants1): Hong Kong included in rest of Asia: EU 5.2%; USA 7.7%; and Japan 0.6%Asia is the biggest supplier for US and

35、 Japan second biggest for EuropeValue of clothing imports into Japan US$ bn19,67216,72714,69016,367ChinaMarket Share of China59%63%65%70%Source: WTO, Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsChina has increased its market share in Japan to 70% despite a shrinking marketBased on production cost China is com

36、petitive on a global scaleCosts of given minutes for clothing production $Based on a survey of KSA for a model production site including Wages and auxilliary wagesProductivityWorking days and timeCosts for management and administrationOverheadsCheaper production cost than ChinaSource: KSA, Roland Be

37、rger Strategy ConsultantsAmericaAsiaWestern Europe + MediterreanEastern EuropeU.S.0.228Costa Rica0.123El Salvador0.105Dominican Republic0.103Jamaica0.099Guatemala0.092Honduras0.092Mexico0.091Hong Kong0.176Taiwan0.163Korea0.Pakistan0.104Malaysia0.102Philippines0.080Sri Lanka0.079Thailand0.079China0.0

38、79Indonesia0.078India0.076Vietnam0.075Cambodia0.075Germany0.358Italy0.291France0.262U.K.0.218Israel0.188Spain0.178Greece0.178Portugal0.158Turkey0.117Tunisia0.099Morocco0.094Egypt0.075Slovenia0.167Poland0.127Croatia0.126Czech Republic0.121Hungary0.116Estonia0.113Lithuania0.107Slovakia0.104Latvia0.097

39、Bulgaria0.091Romania0.090Russia0.086Ukraine0.082Usbekistan0.079Moldavia0.077Volume, distance of price and growth in China relative to average of EU importsSource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants, CITH, CIRFS, European CommissionNote: Bubble size represents market share by volume of total EU impor

40、ts in this categoryRelative priceto average %Relative growthto average%TrousersWomensovercoatsWomenssuitsMens shirtsT-shirtsPulloverWomens blousesWomens dressesWomens skirtsTotal EU import growth of selected items,CAGR 1993-99 %T-Shirts+9.2%Pullovers+13.5%Trousers+10.5%Mens shirts+0.7%Womens blouses

41、+6.2%Womens overcoats+8.9%Womens dresses+3.9%Womens skirts+10.2%Womens suits+4.0%High quota cost in relation to product priceIn the EU, China has strong competitive advantages in womens suits, overcoats and skirts sector while pullovers and T-shirts are more expensive than the averageChina has based

42、 on its strengths the potential to increase its market share in EuropeKey findings “Supplier country ChinaSource: Roland Berger Strategy Consultants interviewsServiceEspecially the Southern part of China demonstrates a competitive advantage in terms of Reliability compared to the AmericasCreativity

43、compared to Central / Eastern EuropeLead timeChina is naturally (sea freight) facing a disadvantage concerning lead-time compared to the Americas (US) and Eastern / South Europe (EU). Increasing pressure on time to market based on shorter collection-cycles is driving less price sensitive customers t

44、o also use airfreightDistance to raw material marketsChina is expanding its competence in fabric production especially in technical fabrics and is therefore building up a competitive advantage towards other Asian countries without fabric production or poor fabric production (e.g. Sri Lanka, Cambodia

45、)Cost positionBased on production costs China is competitive on a global scale. However, relative high quota costs in low-priced product categories and the strong dollar have partly resulted in a shift in sourcing to the Americas and Eastern EuropeProduction know how / qualityChina is broadly accept

46、ed as a country with excellent production know-how across all product categories with core competence in coats, suits and shirts12345The impact of the WTO agreement differs strongly between the different market participantsTextile ManufacturersMore exports to ChinaIncreasing investments in ChinaFew

47、competitive advantages (capital intensive)Apparel ManufacturersStrong increase in exports to Europe, US and JapanMore license agreements with European, US and Japanese brand and non brand apparel manufacturers and retail firms (labor intensive)State Trading FirmsRisking to loose their quota-selling

48、business and profitsHave to develop into regional agents or to become manufacturersPrivate Trading FirmsIncreasing market share through global sourcing network, more value added and better client relationshipsNew market entrants in ChinaThe advantage of state-owned trading companies in getting cheap

49、er quota will gradually disappearAdvantage of state-owned trading companiesExample - Quota structure of a state-owned companyImpactsThe state-owned trading companies currently still own the advantage of getting quota from the government free of charge or at lower costHaving relied on the quota prote

50、ction for a long time of period, most of the state-owned trading companies havent established enough competitiveness for a free market competitionThe deregulation is the absolute trend and state-owned companies will gradually lose their advantages in quota acquisitionAfter Chinas accession to the WT

51、O, the abolishment of quota will push the state-owned trading companies into a very unfavorable situationFree quotaCheaper quotaMarket price quotaProfit contribution from subsidized quota: US$ 20mExampleApparel export is still the most important business of OIE in terms of sales and profit contribut

52、ionSource：OIE, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants1) Including Holding, Minhang, Baihe, Gaonan, apparel business of Rongheng, Pudong2) Jiada + Jingmao3)Including Holding, Rongheng Sales structure by business 2000US$ mOperating profit structure by business 2000US$ mApparel1) exportLogistics2) forwardi

53、ngPharmaceu-tical exportTextile3) exportOthersTotal252.962.326.424.913.066.7%16.4%7.0%6.6%3.3%379.3Apparel1) exportLogistics2) forwardingPharmaceutical exportTextile3) exportOthersTotal11.176.3%Example-0.314.5Taking into account the upcoming market liberalization, OIE will lose rapidly its

54、competitive advantage based on governmental protectionAssessment of competitivenessBusinessMarket share developmentProfitability / cost positionGovernmental protectionBusiness modelsMatch of core competence and success factorsOverall assessmentApparel exportPhar. ExportTextile exportLogistics forwar

55、ding (sea)Logistics forwarding (air)HighMediumLowSource: Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsThe apparel business will need to improve its profitability considerably to offset the loss of the quota businessAdjustment of reported profit of apparel business based on “Economic profitUS$ mReported profit

56、FY2000Elimination of non-sustainable profitsCurrency gainsProfits protected by quota“Sustainable net profitCost of equity“SustainableEconomic profitIIValue of apparel business is declining!Source：OIE, Roland Berger Strategy ConsultantsIRequirement to improve profitabilityThere are two strategic opti

57、ons for OIE in the apparel business: “Service - oriented manufacturer or “Full-service regional agentStrategic options in apparel business“Full-service regional agent“Service-oriented manufacturerCustomer focusForeign retailers (esp. vertical chains)Chinese retailers (private label)Big retailers wit

58、h own buying officesLow-medium advanced agentsRegional coverage of supplier countries for production in AsiaNational coverage (e.g. Several production plants in different labor cost areas of China)Supplier country coverageAll apparel product categories and qualitiesFocus on one / few product categor

59、ies and / or qualities Product categoriesServices / competencesSupply chain partner with core competences in fabric sourcing (worldwide), factory sourcing1) and quality controlAdditional innovative services in Design (own collection)Product development (flexible and quick prototyping through own pro

60、duction capacity)Fabric research & developmentCore competences:ProductionQuality assuranceAdditional services: Product development (pattern making, prototyping)Fabric sourcing121): No own production sitesD.PharmaceuticalsChinas WTO entry will have a strong impact on the pharmaceutical sector and dis