中國CDM能力建設項目培訓講義(1)ppt課件

1、基準和額外性Baselines and additionality中國CDM才干建立工程培訓講義Training Material Building Capacity for the CDM in China基準線情景 ：The baseline scenario基準線基準線情景：Baseline baseline scenario ) 對沒有CDM工程活動的情況下，對GHG排放趨勢情況的預測Scenario forecasted to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur in the absence of

2、 the proposed CDM project. 工程情景：Project scenario對有CDM工程活動的情況下，對GHG排放趨勢情景的預測Scenario forecast to show the trend of anthropogenic GHG emissionsthat would occur with the proposed CDM project intervention. 基準線：BaselineCDM工程活動的基準線是一種假設情況合理代表在不開展擬議工程活動的情況下的溫室氣體人為源排放量?；鶞示€應涵蓋工程內附件A 所列一切氣體部門和源類別的排放量The basel

3、ine for a CDM project activity is the scenario that reasonably represents the anthropogenic emissions by sources of greenhouse gases that would occur in the absence of the proposed project activity. A baseline shall cover emissions from all gases, sectors and source categories listed in Annex A with

4、in the project boundary.基準線可包含一種假設情況。這種假設情況估計未來人為源排放量因工程東道國的詳細情況將超越目前程度The baseline may include a scenario where future anthropogenic emissions by sources are projected to rise above current levels, due to the specific circumstances of the host Party.CDM modalities & procedures, paragraph 44 & 46基準線

5、方法：Baseline approaches (MA48)現有實踐排放量或歷史排放量如運用時在思索到投資妨礙的情況下，一種代表有經濟吸引力的技術方案所產生的排放量在過去五年同等社會經濟環(huán)境和技術情況下，類似工程活動的平均排放量在同一類別位居前20%Existing actual or historical emissions, as applicable; Emissions from a technology that represents an economically attractive course of action, taking into account barriers to

6、 investment; The average emissions of similar project activities undertaken in the previous five years, in similar social, economic, environmental and technological circumstances, and whose performance is among the top 20 per cent of their category.基準線方法的選擇應從以下各項中選擇最適宜該工程活動的方法并就其選擇闡明理由Select from am

7、ong the following approaches the one deemed most appropriate for the project activity and justify the appropriateness of your choice:建立基準線：Establishing a baseline以一個詳細工程為根底按照所運用的已同意的或新的方法學之要求以透明的和保守的方式選擇進展方法、假設條件、方法學、數據源、關鍵要素及額外性，并思索不確定性思索與工程業(yè)別有關的國家或產亞政策和詳細情況，如產亞改革行動、當地燃料供應、動力部門擴展方案以及其他經濟條件假設小型CDM工程

8、活動，應依簡化的程序建立活動，以符合簡化的準擇要求On a project-specific basis;In accordance with provisions for the use of approved and new methodologies In a transparent and conservative manner manner regarding the choice of approaches, assumptions, methodologies, parameters, data sources, key factors and additionality, an

9、d taking into account uncertainty;Taking into account relevant national and/or sector policies and circumstances, such as sector reform initiatives, local fuel availability, power sector expansion plans, and the economic situation in the project sector.In the case of small-scale CDM project activiti

10、es which meet the criteria specified in accordance with simplified procedures developed for such activities;基準線與額外性：Baseline and additionalityYearGHG emissions t CO2-eq排放基準線 Baseline emissions存在工程情況下的排放With project emissions減排量Emission reductions工程改善 Abatement project闡明不是常態(tài)工程下的減排Explain why the emis

11、sion reduction are not business as usual額外性要求：Additionality requirementsCDM工程的溫室氣體減排應與減緩氣候變化有關的真實的、可丈量的和長期的效益GHG emission reductions of CDM projects shall be real, measurable, and assure long-term benefits related to the mitigation of climate changeCDM 工程溫室氣體的減排放應是在沒有經證明的工程活動的情況下所產生的額外的一切排放量的減少GHG e

12、mission reductions of CDM projects shall be additional to any that would occur in the absence of the certified project activity. Kyoto Protocol, Article 12/ 5(c)清潔開展機制工程活動應具有額外性，即溫室氣體人為源排放量減少到低于不開展清潔開展機制工程活動情況下會出現的程度A CDM project activity is additional if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases

13、by sources are reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence of the registered CDM project activity.CDM modalities & procedures, paragraph 43 額外性評價：Additionality assessment經過流程圖或一系列問題逐漸減少基準情景選擇的范圍定性或定量的評價不同能夠的基準情景，并闡明該基準情景的工程不能夠實施定性或定量地評價所提議的工程實施妨礙展現闡明該工程不是通常慣例，例如發(fā)生的情況 全部能夠情況的X%A flow-

14、chart or series of questions that lead to a narrowing of potential baseline options;A qualitative or quantitative assessment of different potential options and an indication of why the non-project option is more likely;A qualitative or quantitative assessment of one or more barriers facing the propo

15、sed project activity; (An indication that the project type is not common practice (e.g. occurs in less than 0 ：由于資本所值大于其本錢，因此添加企業(yè)的價值；more economic attractive當凈現值為負時， NPV 0：由于資本本錢大于其所值，因此減少企業(yè)價值, less economic attractive凈現值為零時， NPV = 0：意味著投資人曾經賺到與投資風險相應的適當報答。Balance attractive 內部收益率：IRR當效益和本錢的現值相等時的投資

16、的報答率IRR is the discount rate r which makes the NPV of the investment exactly zero.步驟2總結：Step 2 summary假設NPV/IRR 太低，無論CERs的收入如何，工程將不會被思索if NPV/IRR is too low, the project will not go ahead anyway, regardless of the CERs revenue or not; 假設NPV/IRR太高，將難以解釋投資妨礙的問題。ifNPV/IRR is too high, the project will

17、have difficulties inexplaining the investment barrier,as it may be argued that it would be implemented anyway, regardless of the CERs revenue.工程投資分析中涉及許多假設情況，DOE在審定此一問題時非常困難it is very difficult for the DOE to check the IRR as we dont knowa project developers internal costing approach, the waybenefit

18、s are evaluated, etc. there are a lot of assumptions in such calculations, as were talking about future cash flows.指定運營實體普通采取向有關管理部門或利害相關方了解NPV/IRR能否合理DNV bases its judgement on experiences with similar projects in the respective sector and country context and will askauthorities or other stakeholde

19、rs whether theNPV/IRR analysis in the PDD is reasonable.在PDD文件中應添加對投資妨礙的數量分析Add a qualitativediscussion about the NPV/IRR in your PDD to make the case of an investment barrier.額外性判別范例-步驟3 - Additionality testing example -Step 3壁壘評價Barrier assessment:投資壁壘Investment barriers技術壁壘Technological barriers因

20、流行實務呵斥的壁壘Barriers due to prevailing practice支持壁壘的充分證據Support barriers with sufficient evidence證明最終的情景無法防止此壁壘 那就是基線!)Show that at least one of the scenarios would not be prevented by the barriers (that will be the baseline!)額外性判別范例-步驟4 - Additionality testing example -Step 4慣用實務分析Common practice anal

21、ysis:其他活動Other activities類似發(fā)生情況Similar options occurring討論闡明Discuss!步驟5 CDM 注冊的影響：Step 5. Impact of CDM registration解釋提出的工程被同意并注冊為CDM工程后，由實施該工程的獲益將減緩經濟或財務的妨礙第二步所論述的或識別的其他妨礙第三步所論述的Explain how the approval and registration of the project activity as a CDM activity, and the attendant benefits and incentives derived from the project activity, wil