國民總收入對居民消費支出的影響

1、民總收入對居民消費支出的影響19902010年的國民總收入與居民消費支出的觀測值如表所示日期國民總收入（億元）x居民消費支出（億元）y199018718.309450.90199121826.2010730.60199226937.3013000.10199335260.0016412.10199448108.5021844.20199559810.5028369.70199670142.5033955.90199778060.8036921.50199883024.3039229.30199988479.2041920.40200098000.5045854.602001108068.204

2、9435.902002119095.7053056.602003135174.0057649.802004159586.7065218.502005183618.5072652.502006215883.9082103.502007266411.0095609.802008315274.70110594.502009341401.50121129.902010403260.00133290.90做出X與Y的散點圖，如下:500,000100,000-400,000-300,000-200,000-Y可以看出X與Y之間呈線性關(guān)系，并且很明顯。做出X與Y的回歸，得出回歸結(jié)果如下:Dependent

3、Variable:YMethod:LeastSquaresDate:07/07/12Time:09:40Sample:19902010Includedobservations:21CoefficientStd.Errort-StatisticProb.X0.3255990.00836138.942710.0000C9617.2641463.5936.5709950.0000R-squared0.987626Meandependentvar54211.01AdjustedR-squared0.986975S.D.dependentvar36599.84S.E.ofregression4176.9

4、99Akaikeinfocriterion19.60297Sumsquaredresid3.31E+08Schwarzcriterion19.70244Loglikelihood-203.8311Hannan-Quinncriter.19.62456F-statistic1516.535Durbin-Watsonstat0.290208Prob(F-statistic)0.000000估計模型結(jié)果如下：y=9617.264+0.325599*X1s=(1463.593)(0.008361)t=(6.570995)(38.94271)R2=0.987626F=1516.535DW=0.29020

5、8S.E=4176.999模型檢驗:經(jīng)濟檢驗：b=0.325599,表明我國國民總收入每增加1億元時，居民消費支出增加0.325599億元。b=9617.264，表明居民消費支出的基本量為9617.264億元。估計標準誤差評價：S.E=4176.999即估計標準誤差為4176.999，它表示居民消費支出估計值與實際值之間的平均誤差為4176.999億元。S.E越小，則回歸精度越高，代表性越好。擬合優(yōu)度檢驗：R2=0.987626，說明樣本回歸直線的解釋能力為98.7626%，表示我國居民消費支出的總變差中，由解釋變量國民總收入x解釋的部分占98.7626%，或者說我國居民消費支出變動的98.7

6、626%可由樣本直線做出解釋，模型的擬合程度較高。參數(shù)顯著性檢驗：對于b1，t的統(tǒng)計量38.94271，P=0.00，在a=0.05時拒絕原假設(shè)H0：b1=0表明國民總收入對我國居民消費支出有顯著影響。b0的t統(tǒng)計量為6.570995,P=0.00，通過檢驗，拒絕原假設(shè)，表明其他因素對我國居民消費支出也有顯著性影響。DW=0.290208，說明隨機誤差項有ut正的相關(guān)性。Series:ResidualsSample19902010Observations21Mean-5.72e-12Median1500.318Maximum4661.912Minimum-7627.361Std.Dev.4071.235Skewness-0.531486Kurtosis1.863270Jarque-Bera2.119306Probability0.346576P=0.346576接受原假設(shè)