航空機(jī)場(chǎng)行業(yè)投資策略機(jī)場(chǎng)個(gè)股航空等待反轉(zhuǎn)概要

1、航空機(jī)場(chǎng)行業(yè)：2012年投資策略,機(jī)場(chǎng)優(yōu)選個(gè)股,航空等候反轉(zhuǎn)綱領(lǐng)航空機(jī)場(chǎng)行業(yè)：2012年投資策略,機(jī)場(chǎng)優(yōu)選個(gè)股,航空等候反轉(zhuǎn)綱領(lǐng)航空機(jī)場(chǎng)行業(yè)：2012年投資策略,機(jī)場(chǎng)優(yōu)選個(gè)股,航空等候反轉(zhuǎn)綱領(lǐng)2011127?g?g?2012?2011?.12011?.1?50%.?1?.12012?.?2?.2?催?.?4?.6催?.72011催?乘.催7?.?7?.?8?.?8?.?9?.?10?催?亢?.11?.11?.11?.12?.13?催?.14?1?.12?催?CPI?.23?催?.24?20072011?.35?20072011?.36?.47?2011?3?.48?2007?.49?2007?

2、.410?70%.511?.512?2011?.513?2011?.514?20092011親?.615?.616?95?/?.717?催.718?D?.719?令佂?.920?.921?2010?.922?乘?15%.923?.1024?.1025?.1026?.1027?300?PE?.1128?A?PB?.12?1?催?.?82?.?103?B767-200?.10?4?乘?.12?5?乘?.?136?乘?.?147?20111125?.15?8?20111125?.162011?2011?2011?ASK?8.7%?7.5%?0.8?5?9?乘?5%?6.3%?1?-15%-10%-5

3、%0%5%10%15%20%050105040507051006010604060706100701070407070710080108040807081009010904090709101001100410071010110111041107RPK?ASK?Wind?50%?4.4%?6.3%?親?76%?9%?(IATA?2011?39.47?10.4?催?19.77?9.86?8.89?118?18?90%?50%?2011?33.85?11.33?10.32%19.36%?2010?17%?2011?2011?20111-9?9.2%?6.9%5.4%?8.7%?3.4%6.0%?20

4、11?19%?20118?乜?乬?T3?2012?2012?CPI?CPI?2?催?CPI?-200412050305060509051206030606060906120703070607090712080308060809081209030906090909121003100610091012110311061109CPI:?M2:?:?Wind?乘?CPI?3%?乘?10%?12%?乘?3?催?-2019821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200

5、520062007200820092010201120120.00?RPK?(?GDP?(?CAAC?2010?2.68?563?14.1%12.9%?親?9.4?4.5?900?11%10%?20111-10?8.7%?2.7%?10?9.7%?乘?2011?9%?3%?CPI?3%?4?20072011?-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%07010704070707100801080408070710090109040907091010011004100710101101110411071110?CAAC?5?20072011?-100%-50%0%50%100%150%0701

6、0704070707100801080408070810090109040907091010011004100710101101110411071110?CAAC?乘?2012?10%?13.1%?11%?2010?1597?2015?2750?乘?親?200?2011930?411親?2012?52親?21?31?8%?420親?2012?60親?15?11%?1030?370親?乘?2012?49親?親10?10%?乘?11%?6?5001,0001,5002,0002,500200?ASCEND?乘?7?2011?3?17A380,?CAAC?乘?催?乘?2011?RPK?11%?82.

7、4%?1.5?2012親?乘?2012RPK?11%?催?乘?2%?乘?ASK?11%?2012?親?8?2007?-2020070420070720071020080120080420080720081020090120090420090720091020100120100420100720101020110120110420110720111030405060708090ASK?RPK?Wind?9?2007?4020070420070720071020080120080420080720081020090120090420090720091020101201042010720110201

8、101201104201107?Wind?2008?3?70%?75%?催?2011?2010催?乘?2011?/ASK?2.3%?2.1%?5.4%?乘?5.7%?4.2%?8.9%?乘?7.5%?1.3%?7.6%?80%?乘?2011?/AFTK?6.2%?5.5%?3.6%?11.3%?7.9%?14%?乘?2012?RTK?75%?2012?10?70%?CAAC?11?CAAC?12?2011?/ASK?0.200.30-10.0-5.010.0?CAAC?13?2011?/AFTK?0.1010.020.0?CAAC?乘?2011?親?9.3/?0.1/?催?親?2011?A38

9、0A330?2012親?30?乘?2012?親?14?20092011親?/?7.523456789101112200920102011?CAAC?2011?30%?40%?2?PT?2012?乘?15?CAAC?3?2012?30?A380?B777?A330乘?A380親?3?4A380親?1?3?200?600?1%?4?16?95?/?/?080408070810090109040907091010011004100710101101110411071110WTI?Wind?17?催6.06.2-0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%?Wind?催?2011催?乘201163

10、0?催?723?D?咘?催?350?/?300?/?D?乘?催?18?D?/ASK?0601061006190628070707160725080308120821?/ASK?CAAC?催?2012催?催?2012?2%?乘?催?1?催?/?20116301318?201112281?201112841?200912261069?20118105?2012684?201112904?20101026160?20101026150?2009928282?2009928298?2010426273?201111502?201026505?20081221363?20081231190?200841

11、8166?200941357?201112291?20101222288?2013?親?T1T2?2000?3?佪?10?催?2.2?+?催?偏?乘?2012?催?乘?15%?19?令佂?200820092010?令佂?令佂?20?300040.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%2004200520092007200820092010?21?2010?22?乘?15%4504003503002502001501005002008200920102011E2012E2013E?乘?乘?2012?T3?2013?4?3?8乘?2011

12、?8.5%?3.5%?催?3?乘?3?20%?乘?2011?19%?乘?乘?2011?9.5%?佪?3?乘?乜?T3?乘?2013?23?200200200200200200200200200201201-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%?CAAC?乘?2011乘?24?5,00010,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,00020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011?乘?2011乘?25?6,00012,00018,00024,00030,0002001200220032004

13、20052006200720082009201020110%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%?(?CAAC?乘?2011乘?26?4,0008,00012,00016,000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020110%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%?CAAC?乘?2011乘?2012?28%?60%?佪?80%?2012?乘?2?45%27%28%?96%1%3%?84%7%9%?OAG?3?B767-200?親?3,6003,9986,664?5406001,000?100120200?5,4576,29211,235?1,3

14、451,7953,228?11,04212,80422,327?CAAC?催?亢?亭?亭?40%?2011?70%?亭?催?乘?催?RPK?2%?催?乘?乘?乘?2012RPK?12%?20111?300?300?12.6?9.0?27?300?PE?200803200805200807200809200811200901200903200905200907200909200911201001201003201005201007201009201011201101201103201105201107201109201111300?Wind?300?3.9?2.1?300?Wind?PE?PB?

15、乘?2012?A?PEPB?92.1?H?A?乘?乘?催?4?乘?EPS?PE?1011E12E13E1011E12E13EPB?12.920.680.780.931.05191714121.6?13.700.941.101.241.37151211112.2?4.430.480.540.470.5299992.1?7.180.950.820.750.83891091.8?5.680.700.670.600.728101.7?乘?2011-11-25?乘?2012?乘?2011親?3.4%?0.75%?3.6%?催?乘?2012?乘?乘?50%?T1T2?2000?50%?催?2011?2.2

16、?催?29%?60%?佪?80%?乘?乘?2000?1/3?親?500?亢?乘?乘?PBPE?催?佪?DCF?PE?16.5?乘?2011/12/13EPS?0.78/0.93/1.05?12.92?PE?17/14/12?5?乘?乍?/2009A2010A2011E2012E2013E?3,3384,1864,6405,2895,818?YoY%-0.3725.4010.8014.0410.24?7061,3111,4821,7671,99585.5613.0419.2312.90?0.370.680.780.931.05?%31.3638.8640.5242.0142.64?%5.509.

17、3310.0310.8110.86?34.919.016.613.912.31.91.81.61.51.3?20111125?催?乘?2011?19%?催?催?25?28?乘?2011?19%?2012乘?5%?10%?3?親?6B787親?乘?2014?佭?催?2012?2013?乘?15%?亢?乘?催?催?乘?催?乘?乘?乘?催?PBPE?DCF?PE?18.00?乘?2011/12/13EPS?1.10/1.24/1.37?13.7?PE?13/11/10?6?乘?乍?/2009A2010A2011E2012E2013E?7668399621,0841,205?YoY%19.229.49

18、14.7412.5811.24?270280328370408?YoY%38.853.6917.1712.8210.30?0.910.941.101.241.37?%56.2358.0757.7357.7357.10?%20.2617.6517.5916.9816.15?15.114.612.511.010.03.12.62.21.81.4?20111125?7?20111125?EPSPEPBROE?20102011E2012E2013E20102011E2012E2013E20102011E2012E2013E20102011E2012E2013E?-ACNY9.070.421.050.9

19、0.821.68.610.111.34.52.52.01.721.029.320.115.2?-ACNY7.430.050.700.60.5148.610.612.414.95.82.72.21.93.521.71813.1?-ACNY5.090.080.480.40.463.610.612.712.715.93.72.92.317.434.522.518.3?-ACNY7.100.090.730.70.678.99.710.111.83.82.41.91.65.124.2?HKD12.643.571.611.591.836.07.88.06.91.60.90.80.829.111.711.3

20、11.7?HKD3.000.440.420.400.457.65.86.15.52.51.41.10.960.125.619.917.6?HKD5.551.030.720.700.717.26.36.56.42.31.11.00.936.718.715.413.9?HKD3.750.700.560.500.605.85.56.15.11.50.90.80.731.318.613.312.66.66.46.76.02.01.10.90.839.318.715.013.9?AUD1.460.050.180.170.2344.98.68.66.20.80.50.50.51.96.76.08.4?AU

21、D0.340.01-0.020.030.0529.513.113.17.10.70.80.80.72.8-4.16.412.2?GBp361.400.280.420.360.4413.010.110.18.21.11.00.90.88.611.99.010.4?INR278.10-48.6713.79-90.2714.36n.a.n.a.n.a.19.42.41.32.11.9-21.45.3-50.111.2?JPY226.00-24.674.308.8111.74n.a.25.725.719.21.41.21.11.0-14.42.34.25.5?KRW438506837357654667

22、17210.212.38.06.11.30.90.80.814.17.512.213.0?KRW6860.12461036135416257.86.65.14.21.71.10.90.825.217.520.020.4?MYR3.620.380.280.360.446.613.010.08.21.92.31.91.633.920.021.421.8偀?MYR6.100.270.360.390.3623.517.215.817.02.11.91.81.78.911.210.810.5?SGD10.050.181.090.450.6383.522.422.416.01.30.90.90.91.69

23、.03.85.3?THB18.908.390.212.213.175.891.38.66.01.30.50.50.522.60-.85.87.5?TWD12.802.310.401.021.2711.232.212.510.02.51.21.11.023.62.88.18.5?TWD18.353.690.971.571.939.119.011.79.52.71.41.31.133.17.011.211.222.322.612.610.61.61.21.11.010.87.45.311.?2?EUR3.92-5.30-1.20-1.29-0.24n.a.n.a.n.a.n.a.0.60.20.2

24、0.2-28.4-8.0-4.80.5?EUR8.642.470.740.571.196.611.615.17.30.90.50.50.515.83.73.16.5?EUR3.550.210.260.300.3217.811.811.811.11.91.81.61.511.613.814.214.1?GBP140.800.050.150.120.2358.511.114.27.00.80.60.60.62.56.74.99.427.611.513.78.51.10.80.70.70.44.14.37.6?USD61.287.018.109.159.517.97.66.76.41.81.71.3

25、1.025.422.919.618.2?USD7.120.711.222.263.107.45.83.22.311.73.51.91.2103.981.272.548.6JetBlueUSD3.480.360.230.480.6520.715.37.25.41.20.60.60.56.14.38.910.?8?USD4.023.110.271.622.034.315.02.52.019.37.42.00.7n.a.54.8107.252.?3?USD7.500.620.400.791.0917.518.99.56.91.60.90.90.87.93.37.511.?9?USD15.901.22

26、3.675.086.346.94.33.12.54.52.01.31.0n.a.58.651.244.?4CAD1.070.38-0.63-0.020.358.8n.a.n.a.3.10.6n.a.n.a.n.a.6.7-4.7-0.4n.a.10.511.25.44.15.82.71.30.930.031.538.131.0?Bloomberg?8?20111125?EPSPEPB?20102011E2012E2013E20102011E2012E2013E20102011E2012E2013E?600004CHEQUITYCNY8.590.470.510.590.6721.6017.291

27、3.3711.711.881.551.491.39?600009CHEQUITYCNY14.190.370.680.750.8747.0818.2217.0914.692.621.701.591.44?000089CHEQUITYCNY5.870.340.420.420.4322.0813.0913.1313.002.461.601.441.31?600897CHEQUITYCNY15.020.910.941.061.1820.1216.0713.7812.414.082.842.311.9910.920.520.640.700.7927.7216.1714.3412.952.761.921.

28、711.53佪?694HKEQUITYHKD3.550.140.220.270.3325.113.010.78.81.10.90.80.8357HKEQUITYHKD4.980.510.530.610.6516.57.76.76.31.90.80.80.7佭?3.550.140.220.270.3325.113.010.78.81.10.90.80.?8?fluavequityEUR26.833.613.232.282.4314.28.311.711.01.30.70.70.?6kbhldcequityDKK1699.00115.8097.20103.60112.2015.317.516.41

29、5.14.04.04.03咢.9ADPFPEQUITYEUR50.513.033.213.483.9019.515.814.512.91.71.41.31.3?fragrequityEUR39.372.862.712.703.1716.514.514.612.41.61.31.21.?1?9706jpequityJPY1035.0029.6414.90-8.6922.7243.8n.a.n.a.45.61.0n.a.0.80.8AIANZEQUITYNZD2.280.020.090.100.1177.922.422.420.71.31.51.21.2?AOTTBEQUITYTHB42.250.992.322.983.6341.918.214.211.60.80.80.80.732.716.115.618.51.71.61.41.4?Bloomberg?AnalystCertification?i?有?ii?Theanalystsprimarilyresponsibleforthepreparationof