探索普遍基本收入：概念證據(jù)和實(shí)踐導(dǎo)航指南（英文）

1、ContentsPrefacexiiiAcknowledgmentsxvAbout the AuthorsxviiAbbreviationsxxi HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Overview: Exploring Universal Basic Income1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Ugo Gentilini, Margaret Grosh, Jamele Rigolini, and Ruslan Yemtsov HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 References14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Chapter

2、1. The Idea of Universal Basic Income17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Ugo Gentilini, Margaret Grosh, and Ruslan Yemtsov HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 A Glimpse at History18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Anatomy of UBI20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Universality24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Conditionality30 HYPERLINK l _bookm

3、ark22 Transfer Modality34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Choices on Other Parameters38 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Three Stylized Narratives on UBI43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Social Protection43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Automation and Labor Market Disruptions47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Resource Dividends52 HYPERL

4、INK l _bookmark34 Conclusions57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 Notes59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 References62vii HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Chapter 2. UBI as Social Assistance: Comparative Models and Instruments73 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Ugo Gentilini and Margaret Grosh HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Types of Programs

5、74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 Benefit-Based Programs Not Based on Work76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 Child Allowances and Social Pensions76 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 Guaranteed Minimum Income77 HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 Other Poverty-Based Cash Transfers78 HYPERLINK l _bookmark45 Tax-Based Programs Not Based o

6、n Work79 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Benefit-Based Programs Based on Work81 HYPERLINK l _bookmark47 Job Guarantee Programs81 HYPERLINK l _bookmark48 Temporary Public Works Programs83 HYPERLINK l _bookmark49 Wage Subsidy Programs85 HYPERLINK l _bookmark50 Tax-Based Programs Based on Work86 HYPERLINK l _b

7、ookmark52 Conclusions88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark54 Notes92 HYPERLINK l _bookmark55 References93 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Chapter 3. Universal Basic Income and Work99 HYPERLINK l _bookmark56 Francesca Bastagli HYPERLINK l _bookmark57 The Arguments100 HYPERLINK l _bookmark58 The Nature of the Evidence101

8、HYPERLINK l _bookmark59 Participation in Paid Work and Financial Work Incentives102 HYPERLINK l _bookmark60 Conditions of Paid Work108 HYPERLINK l _bookmark61 Valuation and Distribution of Unpaid Work109 HYPERLINK l _bookmark62 Formal and Informal Work112 HYPERLINK l _bookmark63 Conclusions113 HYPER

9、LINK l _bookmark64 Work Incentives and Participation in Paid Work114 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Conditions of Work115 HYPERLINK l _bookmark65 Valuation and Distribution of Unpaid Work115 HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 Formal and Informal Work116 HYPERLINK l _bookmark66 Notes116 HYPERLINK l _bookmark67 Referen

10、ces117 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 Chapter 4. Comparative Effects of Universal Basic Income: HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 Emerging Issues and Estimates123 HYPERLINK l _bookmark68 Jamele Rigolini, Nora Lustig, Ugo Gentilini, Emma Monsalve, and Siyu Quan HYPERLINK l _bookmark69 Data125 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71

11、Methodology129 HYPERLINK l _bookmark72 Results131 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Poverty and Inequality in the Baseline Scenario132 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Replacing Social Assistance Programs with a Budget-Neutral UBI132 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 Replacing Baseline Social Assistance Programs with a More Gen

12、erous UBI140 HYPERLINK l _bookmark84 Conclusions147 HYPERLINK l _bookmark85 Notes150 HYPERLINK l _bookmark86 References151 HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 Chapter 5. Financing a Universal Basic Income: A Primer153 HYPERLINK l _bookmark87 Teresa Ter-Minassian HYPERLINK l _bookmark88 Assessing the Fiscal Spac

13、e for a UBI154 HYPERLINK l _bookmark91 Assessing the Scope for Financing a UBI through Expenditure Measures158 HYPERLINK l _bookmark91 Expenditure Savings158 HYPERLINK l _bookmark92 Subsidies Reform159 HYPERLINK l _bookmark94 Reforms of Public Wages and Employment162 HYPERLINK l _bookmark96 Assessin

14、g the Scope for Financing a UBI through Revenue-Raising Measures164 HYPERLINK l _bookmark99 Taxes on Personal Income167 HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 Taxes on Corporate Income170 HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 Taxes on Wealth170 HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 Taxes on Consumption172 HYPERLINK l _bookmark103 Other Po

15、tential Revenue Sources173 HYPERLINK l _bookmark104 Conclusions175 HYPERLINK l _bookmark105 Notes177 HYPERLINK l _bookmark107 References179 HYPERLINK l _bookmark108 Chapter 6. The Political Economy of Universal Basic Income183 HYPERLINK l _bookmark108 Jurgen De Wispelaere and Ruslan Yemtsov HYPERLIN

16、K l _bookmark109 A Stylized Model of Political Economy185 HYPERLINK l _bookmark112 Constituencies, Ideologies, and Coalitions191 HYPERLINK l _bookmark115 Political Transformations of the UBI198 HYPERLINK l _bookmark117 Conclusions203 HYPERLINK l _bookmark118 Notes205 HYPERLINK l _bookmark122 Referen

17、ces209 HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 Chapter 7. What Does It Take to Deliver a Universal Basic Income HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 in Practice?217 HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 Christina Lowe, Margaret Grosh, Tina George, and Ugo Gentilini HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 Delivery Chain217 HYPERLINK l _bookmark123 Phase

18、1: Assessing217 HYPERLINK l _bookmark127 Phase 2: Decision Making221 HYPERLINK l _bookmark127 Phase 3: Implementation221 HYPERLINK l _bookmark128 Surrounding Ecosystem: Foundational Elements224 HYPERLINK l _bookmark128 ID Systems224 HYPERLINK l _bookmark131 Civil Registration Systems228 HYPERLINK l

19、_bookmark132 Interoperability and Data Protection Frameworks229 HYPERLINK l _bookmark133 Payment Service Provision230 HYPERLINK l _bookmark135 Summary232 HYPERLINK l _bookmark135 Conclusions232 HYPERLINK l _bookmark136 Notes233 HYPERLINK l _bookmark136 References233 HYPERLINK l _bookmark137 Appendix

20、es HYPERLINK l _bookmark137 A HYPERLINK l _bookmark137 UBI-Related Pilots HYPERLINK l _bookmark137 237 HYPERLINK l _bookmark138 B HYPERLINK l _bookmark138 UBI-Related Proposals HYPERLINK l _bookmark138 247 HYPERLINK l _bookmark139 C HYPERLINK l _bookmark139 Quantitative Evidence on Conditional and U

21、nconditional Transfers HYPERLINK l _bookmark139 261 HYPERLINK l _bookmark141 D HYPERLINK l _bookmark141 Microsimulations Data and Methodology HYPERLINK l _bookmark141 271 HYPERLINK l _bookmark147 E HYPERLINK l _bookmark147 Annotated Bibliography HYPERLINK l _bookmark147 281 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 B

22、oxes HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 1.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Negative Income Tax Pilots HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 1.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Welfare Continuity and Poverty Dynamics HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 1.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Evidence from Syst

23、ematic Reviews on the Impact of Conditions in HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Cash Transfer Programs HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 1.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Do Cash Transfers Affect Mobility? HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 1.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Rights Archite

24、cture and Select Legislative Provisions HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 1.6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 UBI Proposals in India HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 1.7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 Jobs and Societies HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 2.1 HYPER

25、LINK l _bookmark51 Balancing Wage Subsidy Compliance and Generosity HYPERLINK l _bookmark51 87 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 4.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 Baseline Welfare State Typologies HYPERLINK l _bookmark70 126 HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 6.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 Mapping Ideological Attitudes on Basi

26、c Income across the Political HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 Spectrum in Finland HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 196 HYPERLINK l _bookmark116 6.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark116 The Politics Surrounding the Introduction of Universal Child HYPERLINK l _bookmark116 Allowances in the United Kingdom HYPERLINK l _bookmark11

27、6 199 HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 7.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 UBI within an Integrated Social Registry HYPERLINK l _bookmark125 219 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Figures HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 O.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 UBI within a Social Assistance Cube HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 O.2 H

28、YPERLINK l _bookmark8 Basic Framework for Navigating UBI Decision Making HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 O.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Poverty Reduction Effects of a UBI and Baseline Cash-Based Programs HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 O.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Distrib

29、utional Effects of a Budget-Neutral UBI Reform, Average across 10 Sampled Countries HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 1.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 UBI within a Social Assistance Cube HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 1.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Cost of a UBI by Povert

30、y and Demographic Variables HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 1.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Modalities for UBI Phase-in HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 1.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Alaskan Permanent Fund Dividend Beneficiaries and Annual Percentage Change in Dividend

31、s, 19822017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 1.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Global Copper Prices and Universal Basic Income in Mongolia HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 56 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 B1.2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Welfare Distribution in Bangladesh HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 29 HYPER

32、LINK l _bookmark30 B1.6.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Comparison of Indias Select UBI Proposals HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Benefit Structures of Select Interventions HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 2.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 Benefit

33、 Incidence Net of Taxes: Simulated UBI and SNAP in the United States HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 2.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 NIT Benefit Structure Based on Friedmans 1970 Family Assistance Plan Model HYPERLINK l _bookmark46 80 HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 2.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5

34、2 The Inverse U-Shaped Benefit Structure of the EITC HYPERLINK l _bookmark52 88 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 4.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 Baseline Poverty and Inequality Indicators HYPERLINK l _bookmark73 132 HYPERLINK l _bookmark74 4.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark74 Poverty Impacts of Budget-Neutral UBI Reform

35、HYPERLINK l _bookmark74 133 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 4.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 Progressivity and Relative Performance of a Budget-Neutral UBI Reform HYPERLINK l _bookmark75 135 HYPERLINK l _bookmark76 4.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark76 Inequality Impacts: Reduction in Gini Coefficient HYPERLINK l _bookmar

36、k76 136 HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 4.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 Winners and Losers from a Budget-Neutral UBI Reform HYPERLINK l _bookmark77 137 HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 4.6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 Winners and Losers across Welfare Deciles HYPERLINK l _bookmark78 139 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 4.7 HYPERLINK

37、l _bookmark79 Universal versus Adults-Only UBI: Impact on Children Age 06 HYPERLINK l _bookmark79 140 HYPERLINK l _bookmark80 4.8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark80 Poverty Impacts of More Generous UBI Schemes (Spending Only) HYPERLINK l _bookmark80 141 HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 4.9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 Total

38、 Spending as a Percentage of GDP by UBI Scenario HYPERLINK l _bookmark81 142 HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 4.10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 Squared Poverty Gap Impact for Consumable Income under Baseline and Different UBI Scenarios HYPERLINK l _bookmark82 145 HYPERLINK l _bookmark83 4.11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark

39、83 Incidence of Taxes for the Top 10 Percent under Alternative UBI and Financing Scenarios HYPERLINK l _bookmark83 146 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 5.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 General Government Gross Debt as a Percentage of GDP, 200917 HYPERLINK l _bookmark89 156 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 5.2 HYPERLINK l

40、_bookmark90 Variations in General Government Gross Debt, 2017 HYPERLINK l _bookmark90 157 HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 5.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 Selected Countries Where Pretax Energy Subsidies Exceeded 2 Percent of GDP in 2015 HYPERLINK l _bookmark93 160 HYPERLINK l _bookmark95 5.4 HYPERLINK l _bookma

41、rk95 General Government Employment as a Percentage of the Working-Age Population, 2015 HYPERLINK l _bookmark95 163 HYPERLINK l _bookmark95 5.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark95 Public Wage Premium as a Percentage of Average Private Wage HYPERLINK l _bookmark95 163 HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 5.6 HYPERLINK l _book

42、mark97 Average 200515 Revenue/GDP Ratios for Selected Country Groups HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 165 HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 5.7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 Variations by Country Group in Average 200515 GDP/Revenue Ratios HYPERLINK l _bookmark97 165 HYPERLINK l _bookmark100 5.8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark100 Aver

43、age 200515 PIT/GDP Ratios HYPERLINK l _bookmark100 168 HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 5.9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 Average 200515 CIT/GDP Ratios HYPERLINK l _bookmark101 170 HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 5.10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 Average 200515 Consumption Tax/GDP Ratios HYPERLINK l _bookmark102 172 HYPERL

44、INK l _bookmark110 6.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark110 Three Main Components of the Model and Basic Income Variations HYPERLINK l _bookmark110 186 HYPERLINK l _bookmark111 6.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark111 The Demand-Capacity Paradox HYPERLINK l _bookmark111 188 HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 B6.1.1 HYPERLINK l _book

45、mark113 Political Party Support for Basic Income in Finland, 19792015 HYPERLINK l _bookmark113 196 HYPERLINK l _bookmark114 B6.1.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark114 Support for Basic Income and Left-Right Ideological Position HYPERLINK l _bookmark114 197 HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 7.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark124

46、UBI Delivery Chain Compared to Typical Social Assistance Program HYPERLINK l _bookmark124 218 HYPERLINK l _bookmark126 7.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark126 Population Coverage of Social Registries by Country HYPERLINK l _bookmark126 220 HYPERLINK l _bookmark129 7.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark129 Percentage of Pop

47、ulations without Official Proof of Identity HYPERLINK l _bookmark129 226 HYPERLINK l _bookmark130 7.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark130 National and Digital ID Systems in Sub-Saharan Africa, 19602018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark130 227 HYPERLINK l _bookmark132 7.5 HYPERLINK l _bookmark132 Birth Registration Coverag

48、e by Region HYPERLINK l _bookmark132 229 HYPERLINK l _bookmark134 7.6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark134 Percentage of Adults (15+) with an Account at a Financial Institution HYPERLINK l _bookmark134 or with a Mobile Money Provider HYPERLINK l _bookmark134 231 HYPERLINK l _bookmark145 D.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

49、k145 Coverage and Incidence of Baseline Programs HYPERLINK l _bookmark145 278 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Tables HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 1.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Which Initiative Is Currently a Pure UBI? HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 1.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Barriers to Covera

50、ge HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 1.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Alignment of UBI Narrative with Basic Transfer HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 2.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Program Typology HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 74 HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 2.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

51、k53 Summary Comparison of Intervention Features HYPERLINK l _bookmark53 90 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 B4.1.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 Illustrative Welfare State Typologies HYPERLINK l _bookmark71 129 HYPERLINK l _bookmark98 5.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark98 Revenue Sources Scored on Different Criteria HYPERLI

52、NK l _bookmark98 166 HYPERLINK l _bookmark139 C.1 HYPERLINK l _bookmark139 Comparative Impact Evaluations HYPERLINK l _bookmark139 261 HYPERLINK l _bookmark140 C.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark140 Systematic and Literature Reviews HYPERLINK l _bookmark140 265 HYPERLINK l _bookmark142 D.1 HYPERLINK l _bookma

53、rk142 ASPIRE Database Use HYPERLINK l _bookmark142 272 HYPERLINK l _bookmark143 D.2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark143 Selected Social Assistance Programs by Country HYPERLINK l _bookmark143 273 HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 D.3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 Indonesia Simulated Benefit Levels for Main Social Assistance

54、 HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 Programs HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 276 HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 D.4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 Evolution of Indonesias Social Assistance Budget HYPERLINK l _bookmark144 276 HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 PrefaceAt the time of writing this preface, electoral debates in India, which fea

55、tured uni- versal basic income (UBI) in a prominent way, just subsided; pilot programs are rolled out in several cities in the United States and Europe; a decade-long trial is under way in rural Kenya; and the World Bank is, through this very volume,issuing its first analysis on the matter. So why a

56、ll this interest on a seemingly utopian and radical proposal of “just give cash to everyone”?Interest in UBI is surely symptomatic of larger societal discomforts. The chang- ing nature of work in higher-income countries demands that social protection systems co-evolve with it. While automation, glob

57、alization, and diversification of employment bolstered efficiency and productivity gains, median income and living standards have not always risen accordinglyand in some cases, they have been stagnant for decades. Lower-income contexts, where work arrangements have not changed as dramatically, face

58、different challenges. Among them, pervasive poverty and informality, compounded with limited government capacities and revenues, are preventing hundreds of millions of people from accessing higher-productivity activities, being protected from risks, and building human capital.With societal anxieties

59、 brewing, there are new opportunities for rethinking how to forge a more inclusive social contract, including with universal social protection at the core, and do so in ways that leapfrog past models. While new technologies are expand- ing the delivery frontier, the notion of “universal” social prot

60、ection is subject to different interpretations. Specifically, universality can be attained in different waysfor example, by combining assistance and insurance programs, by combining different safety net measures, or, as in the case of UBI, achieving such goals via a single measure. Put differ- ently