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1、1. 61.1.61.2.71.2.1. 71.2.2. 71.3.91.4.101.5.111.5.1. 1.5.2.151.6.172. 182.1.182.2.192.3.222.3.1222.3.2. 222.4.233. 233. HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 HNB23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250003 HNB24 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 3.32019HNB254. 26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 HNB26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 HNB284.2.1. 284.2.2. 30
2、4.3.334.4.334.4.1. 334.4.2. 364.5.375. 385.1002191.SZ385.2002925.SZ385.3834742.OC395.4300014.SZ395.5395.6.401.62.73. 74. 85.862017. 872017. 98. 109.1110. 12. 1212. 13132014. 13142014. 13152016. 14162016. 1417. 15182000-2017. 1619. 1720. 1821. 1920202020SMOK2127. 2128. 21292018. 22302013-2017. 23IQOS
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6、65000450040003500300025002000150010000984984615 520 510343 212 188 178 164 160 154 150 141 140 134 90 98 91 90 89 837210%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%-10%HNB2020 HNB2020BAT2% 1%13%5%43%9%12%15%201743% BAT2% 1%13%5%43%9%12%15%JTJTIT9%9%77161.3 1615731620 17 19821119841983 19841991 1997 199119979419981998942
7、00320044200848820171.4 20172018 11556.23.69%10000.83.37% 78774.88%550 15.411123112310121012570570500500414350350275 2014275 2014254250 2015250 2015228183183175 2016144133133127 2014127 2014124 20161241.5 1.5.1 87%A87%89%89%99WHO186 201862011%11%1665630% 50186 30% 5027%608327527%608327515322231434117
8、26915131010106020, 11%56, 30%60, 32%20, 11%56, 30%60, 32%50, 27%4030 20100WHOWHO B161 16115%10%15%6515%322C0.2%10%385520%25% D24.1%22.5% 20.6%28.6%28.0%20.6%35.0%33.3%30.0%26.5%25.0% 25.0%WTO Organization“WHO”2014WHO10470%20151041212104104100.999.81041031021011009998972003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2
9、009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015WHO 40%70% 868680%14142014Bosnia and HerzegovinaIsrael Slovakia Bulgaria Poland Turkey Finland Estonia Greece ChileUnited Kingdom82.6%82.2%81.3%84.6%84.0%86.0%131320142017WHO 201756.2%56.2%37.2%54.6%37.2%7.19 494.6865.1%4.32.3554.6%15152016WHO 80%80%50%76%26%75% 50%7
10、6%77%50% 77%16162016WHO 1.5.2 201555%0.005/58.3/70/36.981717, 3.96,5.7%, 0.14,0.2%, 6.42,9.2%, 9.66,13.8%, 33.02,47.2%, 16.8,24.0%0.6/0.6/216% 325% 420%10%25%557% 10%25%67% 73%2%82007 1320071315%15%25%74200710%2014 25%74200710%201422/(70/)(70/1 )56%0.003/36%0.003/11%11%0.005/36%30%30%2216%3325%4420%
11、10%10%25%“” “”“” “”525%“” “” “”6 7%7785%25%7%200020172015 20173.24%201714349.76 65% 182000-201760% 182000-20171400050%1200040%1000030%800020%600010%40000%2000-10%0-20%Wind1.6 WHOWHOHNBHNBHNB HNB 19191 1 2.2.1 19631967 20002004202021212.2 2015620177 UU“”201713.6%201875% 20181220GroupInc128Inc 3802018
12、7160 JUUL JUUL9.4JUUL20172.459.420187222223JUULAdvanced Personal ODMAPV APV2124YOY25 VaporessoAPV 2018 2124YOY25 VaporessoAPV25.0020.0015.0010.005.000.003380.00%201220132014201520162017 SMOKSMOK4000%9.29%146.94% 115.70% 122.10%9.29%146.94% 115.70% 122.10%2400%1600%800%0%88RELAX20181201863800 27IDG27
13、“”26 SMOK26 SMOK2016 2016PCTPCT28282.3 2.3.1 2018 3078%300 FDAFDA2929 60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Statista FDAFDAPMATPre-MarketTobaccoApplicationPMAT20188FDA20400 100201810FDAvapor vapor2.3.2 JUULJUUL30302013-2017160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%201320142015201620172.43.3.1988 1988HNBEclipseHNB InternationalPM
14、IIQOS282014 IQOS31 IQOS31 IQOSPMI HNBHNBIQOS IQOS600 600350 350PMIIQOS 93%892%1832 IQOS92%794%IQOS 32 IQOS2015 2016472017HNB47IQOSIQOS2018201833 IQOS18%33 IQOS16%IQOS16%IQOSHNB2018HNB16%2018 11%10%11%10%9%7%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q1HNB3.32019HNBHNBPMI IQOS 2019Nixx20191 iSwitchI
15、QOSHNB20192019201911HNBHNBHNB92% HNB2 2 IQOSHNB4. 4.1200550 50517086%2017171 517086%38.7%5112018.5%34356.734356.7180160140120100806040200201220132014201520162017876543210201220132014201520162017160%140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%60%60%36363770%3%70%28%38%24%7%24%43%6%28%38%24%7%24%43%6%6%7%13%IQOS IQOS20
16、142017 1.5%2014IQOS2015 2017 36.432.7%2503838399%35%9%30%25%20%15%10%JUUL5%0%20142015201620172% 3% 3%HNBHNBGloRevoGloRevoIQOS 2014IQOS122017124041 IQOS4041 IQOS4.0%3.5%3.0%2.5%2.0%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.0%201520162017IQOSPloom8%7.1%4.9%3.5%4.9%3.5%0.1% 0.3%0.5%0.4% 0.7% 0.9%0.1% 0.2%0.4%6%5%4%3%2%1%0%16Q316Q
17、4 17Q1IQOSIQOSHNBHNBHNBHNBS IQOS 4.24.2.1 2017 70% 113218015 6Marlboro2017 35%9.7%0.1%2017540.73201772.45201620174.5% IQOS2008400IQOS30% 400 2025 IQOS92% IQOS 424243 IQOSIQOS IQOS IQOS IQOSIQOS IQOSHNB22017520024245200200 552017 2012 252018 1012.72022450201757.8%100% HNBGloHNBGlo33720175.83731541127
18、20161120179201662017288.63.5%61.3%20160.2%20177970.1%81%185.88.7%60%20176PloomTECH9Mighty101130%70%4HNB20162ITGTabacalera(Fontem Ventures)Logista20162017Blu3.3816063% 212004FDAIQOS2014IQOS20162017FDAIQOSFDAIQOS2012CreativeVype 2015 102018Vype RaptoriFusePloom TechIQOS20176 2016TenMotives6102018Vype
19、RaptoriFusePloom TechIQOS2017620122012Puritane Blu Nerudia2018myblu2019NixxFDA“” “FDAFDA”2016201442014“”20142016201442014“”20149201410201411201412201512015220151.2.3“”447201512201620161-2:20167“”2017201512201620161-2:20167“”201732018VIPNAshima MC Mate1.211MCP1.0MCP1.0MCMini1.0MC 62018 20185520172017
20、1220182017201714CECC20182017201714CECC20189201826201820181020182019500 500151%620142 51%6201412 2000200020188 51% 51% 20183 51%51%20144112“VaporStyle ”129“VaporStyle ”12013940%20186 440040%20144 201710 4.3 2022 4002012202237% 40044445002012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022EYOY90
21、%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2014P&SMarket20142018-2020 22.3/29/36.235%/30%/25% 454540120%35100%3080%252060%1540%1020%500%2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E4.4 4.4.1 HNB HNBA A 20122017 21.5229.46.48%2018 23.7713.21%5.4625.28%80% 40%20%201843.88%25.7%19464746473030%50%2520%2010%150%40%30%10-10%5-20%0-30%20%10%201320142015201620172018Q3201320142015201620172018 WindWindWindWind48494849B B 20092015(E-cigarette)Advanced Personal15.6676%201821.415.11223%70%6201725%25%5051505125250%2
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