銀行行業(yè)：如何理解票據(jù)類融資高增長

1、圖表索引圖 1：據(jù)現(xiàn)逆性：據(jù)資比名經(jīng)濟(jì)速化4圖 2：據(jù)現(xiàn)逆性：據(jù)現(xiàn)額速名義濟(jì)速變（%）4圖 3（%）5圖4：據(jù)融余速與義濟(jì)速變（%）5圖5：用張名濟(jì)增的化（%）6圖6：據(jù)現(xiàn)額與社存余增（%）6圖7：貼票余速與融量額速（%）8圖8：據(jù)現(xiàn)額與未現(xiàn)額速（%）8圖9：據(jù)融增社融量額速（%）9表 1：據(jù)資月月度布億）7表2：據(jù)資月值/增人幣款7表3：據(jù)資+未現(xiàn)票：月（元）9表 4：月?lián)诩又灯比谫Y未現(xiàn)票）/月融加值10圖 1：票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)的逆周期性：票據(jù)融資占比與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增速變化100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%環(huán)比變化：名義GDP同比增速（%,右軸）當(dāng)季票據(jù)融資

2、增加/當(dāng)季金融機(jī)構(gòu)人民幣貸款增加值（%）5.00%3.00%1.00%-1.00%-3.00%2005-062005-122005-062005-122006-062006-122007-062007-122008-062008-122009-062009-122010-062010-122011-062011-122012-062012-122013-062013-122014-062014-122015-062015-122016-062016-122017-062017-122018-062018-12數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，圖 2：票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)的逆周期性：票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)余額增速與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的變化（

3、%）環(huán)比變化：名義GDP同比增速（%,右軸,四季度移動(dòng)平均）同比：票據(jù)融資余額（貼現(xiàn)）2004315021001-502006-032006-082007-012006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-122010-052010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-09-50

4、-100-5數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，圖 3：未貼現(xiàn)票據(jù)的順周期性：未貼現(xiàn)票據(jù)余額增速與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增速變化（%）16014012010080604020-20-40-60環(huán)比變化：名義GDP同比增速（%,右軸,四季度移動(dòng)平均）同比：未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票4321-2006-032006-082006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-122010-052010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-0

5、52015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-09數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，2016 年之前未貼現(xiàn)票據(jù)余額增速通過月度增量倒推而得，下同圖 4：票據(jù)類融資余額增速與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的變化（%）環(huán)比變化：名義GDP同比增速（右軸四季度移動(dòng)平均）同比：票據(jù)類融資余額（貼現(xiàn)+未貼現(xiàn)）1004380260140-20-12006-032006-082006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-122010-052010-102011-032011-082012

6、-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-09-20-40-5數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，圖 5：信用擴(kuò)張與名義經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的變化（%）環(huán)比變化：名義GDP同比增速（右軸,四季度移動(dòng)平均）社會(huì)融資規(guī)模存量:同比:季45440335230125-20-115-210-35-4-5數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，圖 6：票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)余額增速與社融存量余額增速（%）同比：票據(jù)融資余額（貼現(xiàn)）社會(huì)融資規(guī)模存量:同比季(右軸）200451501003

7、0502006-032006-082007-012006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-122010-052010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-09-505-100-數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，2016 年之前社融存量余額增速通過社融月度增量倒推而得，下同表 1：票據(jù)融資當(dāng)

8、月值：月度分布（億元）年月1 月2 月3 月4 月5 月6 月7 月8 月9 月10 月11 月12 月全年20195,1602018347-775-119231,4472,9472,3884,0991,7431,0642,3413,39518,9002017-4,521-2,418-3,893-1,983-1,469-1,597-1,662318-22-3783851,403-15,83620163,719-5835182,3881,564-1502762,2351,4221,097-1,009-2,5318,94720159624002801,3612,2333,4552,5672,457

9、2871,8361,426-63416,6312014-828-3363938601,5457891,7262,3678581,1712,424-1,4039,5652013-3351811,1831,687844-782-1,038-125-1,524-706191-484-9082012801,1061,3902,4072,3203411,5261,314-2,170-732-369-1,9005,3122011-810-712-1,033395568251653917-208-7013605202002010-1,809-1,744-2,683470377-1,134-436-205-9

10、27-1-156-813-9,06120096,2394,8703,6941,257862128-1,982-2,764-3,517-2,039-1,085-1,1154,5482008185-684-297836318-3097665282576082,1052,1476,4612007682165-28619-172-1,029-257-24-1,436-1,262-751-920-4,414數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，表 2：票據(jù)融資當(dāng)月值/新增人民幣貸款1 月2 月3 月4 月5 月6 月7 月8 月9 月10 月11 月12 月全年201916.0%20181.2%-9.2%-1.1%0.2

11、%12.6%16.0%16.5%32.0%12.8%15.3%18.7%31.6%11.7%2017-22.3%-20.7%-38.2%-18.0%-13.2%-10.4%-20.1%2.9%-0.2%-5.7%3.4%24.0%-11.7%201614.8%-8.0%3.8%43.0%15.9%-1.1%6.0%23.6%11.7%16.8%-12.7%-24.3%7.1%20156.2%3.9%2.4%19.2%24.8%27.0%17.3%30.3%2.7%35.7%20.1%-10.6%14.2%2014-6.3%-5.0%3.7%11.1%17.7%7.3%44.8%33.7%10.

12、0%21.4%28.4%-20.1%9.8%2013-2.6%2.9%11.1%21.2%12.9%-9.1%-14.9%-1.7%-19.4%-14.0%3.1%-10.0%-0.9%20121.1%15.6%13.7%35.3%29.3%3.7%28.2%18.7%-34.9%-14.5%-7.1%-41.8%6.5%2011-6.5%-13.3%-15.2%5.2%10.3%4.0%13.1%16.7%-4.4%-11.9%6.4%8.1%0.4%2010-12.9%-25.0%-52.5%6.1%5.9%-18.8%-8.2%-3.8%-15.6%0.0%-2.5%-16.9%-11.

13、4%200938.6%45.6%19.5%21.2%13.0%0.8%-55.7%-67.3%-68.1%-80.6%-36.8%-29.4%4.8%20082.3%-28.0%-10.5%18.0%10.0%-9.3%20.1%19.5%6.9%33.4%44.1%27.8%13.2%200712.0%4.0%-0.6%14.7%-7.0%-22.8%-11.1%-0.8%-50.7%-92.7%-85.9%-189.8%-12.1%數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，2006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-12

14、2010-052010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092006-032006-072006-112007-032007-072007-112008-032008-072008-112009-032009-072009-112010-032010-072010-112011-032011-072011-112012-032012-072012-112013-0

15、32013-072013-112014-032014-072006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-122010-052010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-092006-032006-072006-112007-032007-072007-112008-032008-

16、072008-112009-032009-072009-112010-032010-072010-112011-032011-072011-112012-032012-072012-112013-032013-072013-112014-032014-072014-112015-032015-072015-112016-032016-072016-112017-032017-072017-112018-032018-072018-11跟蹤分析|銀行圖 7：未貼現(xiàn)票據(jù)余額增速與社融存量余額增速（%）同比：未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票社會(huì)融資規(guī)模存量:同比:季（右軸）16045140401203510030

17、80256040202015-10-205-40-60-數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，圖 8：票據(jù)貼現(xiàn)余額增速與未貼現(xiàn)余額增速（%）同比：票據(jù)融資余額（貼現(xiàn)）同比：未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票20015010050-50-100數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，發(fā)現(xiàn)價(jià)值請務(wù)必閱讀末頁的免責(zé)聲明8 / 12圖 9：票據(jù)類融資增速與社融存量余額增速（%）同比：票據(jù)類融資余額（貼現(xiàn)+未貼現(xiàn)）社會(huì)融資規(guī)模存量:同比季（右軸）100458035604020202006-032006-082006-032006-082007-012007-062007-112008-042008-092009-022009-072009-122

18、010-052010-102011-032011-082012-012012-062012-112013-042013-092014-022014-072014-122015-052015-102016-032016-082017-012017-062017-112018-042018-09-205-40-數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，表 3：票據(jù)融資+未貼現(xiàn)銀票：當(dāng)月值（億元）年月1 月2 月3 月4 月5 月6 月7 月8 月9 月10 月11 月12 月全年20198,94620181,784-669-4411,477-294-702-3563,3201,1956112,2144,41812,55

19、720171,609-4,137-1,502-1,638-2,714-1,827-3,699560762-3664002,080-10,47320165,046-4,288691-388-3,503-2,870-4,8421,859-808-704162-942-10,58620152,908-192-6301,2873,1942,427-750880-992-1,861-1,1199126,06520144,074-1,7552,6451,6491,4512,234-2,4311,251-552-1,2401,756-8028,27920135,463-1,6423,9143,905-297

20、-3,397-2,8152,924-1,603-1,0512511,1956,8472012-1348224,2112,6862,7003,4541,744468-15-3-85873715,81120112,347-1,8884,5982,7272,2631,881-1,0732,569-3,569-1,8871332,37110,47220101,640-3191,5252,7791,590-294643,1767523051,64076314,28620094,0074,5654,666-1,9905,897741-1,687-2,867-2,207-1,82293-2419,15520

21、08404-9811,2851,1151,4281,404431,176463-8611,3886617,5262007913-1,4081,1151,625174-4-6082,089-848-864-9633861,606數(shù)據(jù)來源：Wind，表 4：當(dāng)月票據(jù)類融資增加值（票據(jù)融資+未貼現(xiàn)銀票）/當(dāng)月社融增加值1 月2 月3 月4 月5 月6 月7 月8 月9 月10 月11 月12 月全年201919.3%20185.8%-5.6%-2.8%8.3%-3.1%-4.7%-2.9%17.1%5.5%8.2%14.5%27.8%6.5%20174.3%-37.4%-6.3%-10.5%-20.7%-8.6%-24.7%3.2%3.4%-3.0%2.1%13.1%-4.7%201614.5%-51.6%2.9%-5.0%-51.7%-17.4%-101.1%12.7%-4.7%-7.9%0.9%-5.8%-5.9%201514.2%-1.4%-5.1%12.2