商品期貨CFTC持倉(cāng)跟蹤-20221225-信達(dá)期貨

2022年12月25日主要觀點(diǎn)指標(biāo)解讀0%40%0%20%%40.23%38.87%2670%.10.57%9.40%9.32%0.00%0.00%CBOT豆粕ICE糖ICE棉花CBOT豆油COMEX白銀COMEX黃金COMEX銅CBOT大豆WTI原油CBOT玉米總持倉(cāng)百分位指標(biāo)表達(dá)了整個(gè)市場(chǎng)對(duì)于該品種的興趣濃厚程度，包括商業(yè)持倉(cāng)和非商業(yè)持倉(cāng)，總持倉(cāng)百分位無(wú)法直接判斷方向，只能用來判斷品種是否容易產(chǎn)生行情。從總持倉(cāng)百分位看：CBOT豆粕和ICE糖的總持倉(cāng)百分位居前，說明市場(chǎng)關(guān)注度高。CBOT玉米和WTI原油的總持倉(cāng)百分位歷史新低，說明市場(chǎng)關(guān)注度低。指標(biāo)解讀2293%2368%2377%2293%2368%2377% -52.98% %-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%0.64%-6.67%-2110%-2202%...-35.98%WTI原油COMEX黃金ICE棉花ICE糖CBOT大豆COMEX白銀COMEX銅CBOT玉米CBOT豆油CBOT豆粕商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比即生產(chǎn)商持有的凈多頭頭寸占比，多數(shù)情況位于零軸以下，視作異常值出現(xiàn)，往往意味著價(jià)格已經(jīng)處于底部區(qū)間。從商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比指標(biāo)來看：WTI原油的商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比持續(xù)為正，但數(shù)值較小。CBOT豆粕的商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比為負(fù)且絕對(duì)值較大。3307%2234%3307%2234%5%0%25%20%%31.39%31.24%25.10%24.55%1767%.CBOT豆粕ICE糖WTI原油CBOT大豆CBOT豆油COMEX白銀COMEX黃金COMEX銅CBOT玉米ICE棉花非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比即基金持有的凈多頭頭寸占比，基金往往是發(fā)動(dòng)行情的主要力量，因此可以跟隨基金的力量來進(jìn)行投資。從非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比指標(biāo)來看：CBOT豆粕ICE糖和WTI原油的非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比居前，容易產(chǎn)生行情。ICE棉花的非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比居后，不容易產(chǎn)生行情。指標(biāo)解讀0%40%20%%8362%期貨和期權(quán)新版COT指標(biāo)跟蹤53.79%49.66%48.00%4330%3478%24.73%21.75%3392%CBOT豆粕ICE糖COMEX白銀CBOT豆油CBOT玉米CBOT大豆COMEX銅COMEX黃金ICE棉花WTI原油COT指標(biāo)=近三年基金最高凈持倉(cāng)?近三年基金最低凈持倉(cāng)COT指標(biāo)=近三年基金最高凈持倉(cāng)?近三年基金最低凈持倉(cāng)*100%，90%到100%在熊市中則反之。由于無(wú)法準(zhǔn)確定位行情發(fā)生時(shí)間，主要還是起到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制和。從COT指標(biāo)來看：CBOT豆粕處于歷史新高，需警惕超買風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。WTI原油處于超賣區(qū)間，需警惕超賣風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。COMEX黃金期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX黃金總持倉(cāng)0000000000000000900000800000700000600000500000COMEX價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX黃金非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比0%40%30%20%%商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比COMEX黃金活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/52200200022002000期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX黃金商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比COMEX黃金活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)0%22000%-5%-5%--2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX黃金非商業(yè)COT90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%%COTCOMEX躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)220020002016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5COMEX白銀期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX白銀總持倉(cāng)330000310000290000270000250000230000210000000000000總持倉(cāng)COMEX銀活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX白銀非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比60%50%40%30%20%10% 0%-20%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/528262422202826242220期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX白銀商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比0%-5%-20%-25%-30%-35%COMEX收盤價(jià)(右)282624222028262422202016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX白銀非商業(yè)COT90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%非商業(yè)COTCOMEX銀活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5COMEX銅期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX銅總持倉(cāng)350000330000310000290000270000250000230000210000000000000總持倉(cāng)COMEX銅活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX銅非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比0%40%30%20%10% 0%-20%-30%非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比COMEX銅活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX銅商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比COMEX銅活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)54.554.50%4.5-20%3-30%2.5-40%-40%-50%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版COMEX銅非商業(yè)COT非商業(yè)COTCOMEX銅活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)54.5454.54.532.5290%%70%60%0%40%30%20%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/554.54.532.5254.54532.52WTI原油期貨和期權(quán)新版WTI原油總持倉(cāng)I40000003800000360000034000003200000300000028000002600000240000022000002016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版WTI原油非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比40%35%30%25%20%非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比WTI原油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版WTI原油商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比04%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比WTI原油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)02016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版WTI原油非商業(yè)COT非商業(yè)COTWTI原油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)0090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5CBOT大豆期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT大豆總持倉(cāng)00000900000800000700000總持倉(cāng)CBOT大豆活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)35%30%25%20%15%10% %-5%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT大豆非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT大豆活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5900900期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT大豆商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比10% 0% -5%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT大豆活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)9002016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT大豆非商業(yè)COT900090%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%非商業(yè)COTCBOT大豆活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5CBOT豆油期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆油總持倉(cāng)總持倉(cāng)CBOT豆油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)7000006500006000005500005000004500004000003500002016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆油非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比40%35%30%25%20%15%10% % -5%非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT豆油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/540204020期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆油商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比0%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT豆油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)402040202016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆油非商業(yè)COT90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%%非商業(yè)COTCBOT豆油活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5CBOT豆粕期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆粕總持倉(cāng)650000600000550000500000450000400000350000總持倉(cāng)CBOT豆粕活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆粕非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 0%-5%非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT豆粕活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆粕商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT豆粕活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)00000%45045045040040040040050-3050350-40%0000-50%250252502502016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT豆粕非商業(yè)COTCBOT豆粕活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右045045040040004504504004000500000%70%0%0%40%0%20%2502502018/1/522502502018/1/52016/1/5CBOT玉米期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT玉米總持倉(cāng)期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT玉米商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比285000026500002450000225000020500000000CBOT價(jià)(右)35%30%25%20%15%10% %-5%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT玉米非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT玉米活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5000000040000000000040000 % -5%-20%-25%-30%-35%-40%商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比CBOT玉米活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版CBOT玉米非商業(yè)COT90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%非商業(yè)COTCBOT玉米活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5000000040000900700000400300ICE棉花期貨和期權(quán)新版ICE棉花總持倉(cāng)5000004500004000003500003000002500002000002016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版ICE棉花非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10% 0%-5%非商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比ICE棉花活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/50期貨和期權(quán)新版ICE棉花商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比商業(yè)凈持倉(cāng)占比ICE棉花活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5期貨和期權(quán)新版ICE棉花非商業(yè)COT90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%%非商業(yè)COTICE棉花活躍合約收盤價(jià)(右)2016/1/52018/1/52020/1/52022/1/5ICE糖期貨